NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[NYDem]

Letitia James would be the one of  black woman to win any statewide election in American history and the first in New York History. That would be amazing but historically New York doesn’t make that kinda history, being one of the few states to have never had elected a female governor, or a minority governor. This leads me to think maybe a dark horse like Biaggi could win/take the plunge against him. However the state party is changing so it could surprise me.

Biaggi would be a much bigger change for the state, as by far the most far-left Governor the state has ever had.

James is pretty well-regarded by the state, so I assume she'll just be the state-backed candidate and have a fairly easy win if Cuomo is still in office but doesn't run again. But if Hochul is put into office by a Cuomo resignation, she'd probably be the favorite.

If Hochul runs for a full  James likely won't primary her.

I am a bit biased towards Hochul for no other reason than her geographical location. She'd be the first unambiguously Upstate Governor in ~90 years.

[NYDem]

Does anyone think this is a potential setup?

It's possible but unlikely.

Then again, the nursing home coverup should have been enough to push him out on its own. Even if some over-exaggerated photo is the thing that actually gets him out I really don't care. Al Capone was convicted of tax evasion.

[NYDem]

Emerson now has Cuomo underwater:

Approve 38%
Disapprove 48%
Unsure/No opinion 14%

Men: 33/56
Women: 43/40

Should Cuomo be reelected in 2022?
Yes 36%
No 64%

Should Cuomo resign over Nursing Home handling?
Yes 45%
No 36%
Unsure 18%

700 RV, 3/1-3/2

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/new-york-state-poll-governor-cuomo-struggling-amid-controversies

Interesting that women approve of Coumo more than men do. You'd expect the opposite if anything.

I think some of that is just partisan gender bias.

[NYDem]

A lot of people think this is a setup, I am just saying.

Six women?

"A lot of people think"... who exactly thinks that? What's their evidence? That's also a phrase Trump used for his talking points, trying to give them more credibility.

I know it's a bronz post, but parts of the "blue MAGA crowd" in the Politico and NYT comment sections legitimately believe that:

Told you.....

Agreeing with the blue MAGA crowd which actually believes Manchin should be expelled from the Democratic caucus and become a Republican doesn't really increase the validity/credibility of your statement...

I don't think there's really a lot of overlap between Cuomo stans and people who think Manchin should be kicked out of the caucus. I would assume super pro-Cuomo people would be moderates.

I’m not sure how true that is. Upstate is fairly moderate and everyone seems to ing hate him up here.

[NYDem]

He is literally going to become Blue Trump if he isn't ing stamped out immediately.

[NYDem]

He is literally going to become Blue Trump if he isn't ing stamped out immediately.

"Become"?

I've always hated the man, but it wouldn't have been a fair comparison before now. His adoption of this type of faux-populist language, and his fanbase of lunatic #resist ers on Twitter are something he hasn't had before.

[NYDem]

https://twitter.com/nypost/status/1371104425461354500

The same heart that told him it was ok to sexually harass multiple women?

More importantly, the same heart that told him it was OK to force nursing homes to take COVID-19 patients and then cover up all the deaths of old people that he caused?

The same heart that told him it was OK to cut corrupt deals with everyone in Albany, have them investigated, and then dissolve the Moreland Commission when it came looking his way?

[NYDem]

Katko is considering a run.

https://13wham.com/news/local/report-republican-rep-katko-being-recruited-to-run-for-governor-of-ny

Would clearly be the smartest choice, but I have strong doubts that he is capable of winning a Republican primary after voting to impeach. It will probably end up being Andrew Giuliani or some other hard R MAGA loon who has no chance of being competitive even with Cuomo's damaged position.

[NYDem]

Hochul will be the first truly upstate governor in almost exactly 100 years.

[NYDem]

Larry Sharpe earns NY Libertarian Party nomination, announces 2018 running mate Andrew Hollister as his running mate once again. Sharpe was also endorsed by Andrew Yang, and will be earning the Forward Party's line in the general election as well, if the party qualifies. Sharpe also has potential support of the Upstate Jobs Party and Unite NY as well - meaning Sharpe could hypothetically appear on as many as 4+ party lines.

https://www.einnews.com/pr_news/563730840/larry-sharpe-nominated-for-governor-of-ny-at-libertarian-party-convention

Working Families Party endorses Jumaane Williams for the general election, opening the door for a spoiler campaign effect.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/central-ny/ny-state-of-politics/2022/02/09/working-families-party-backs-jumaane-williams-for-governor

Per PSOL's post in the 2024 independents/third party thread, Howie Hawkins is rumored to run for Governor again.

Not much news about the SAM Party yet, however.

This is the first time I have thought of the Upstate Jobs Party in years. I didn't know they continued to exist in any real way after Babinec's 2016 run.

[NYDem]

I'd vote for Larry Sharpe, Howie Hawkins, the inevitable separate WFP candidate, Andrew Yang, or Martin Babinec before voting for Cuomo.

[NYDem]

Assuming the obvious happens and Hochul and Delgado win in the fall, they'll be the first ticket of 2 Upstaters to win since 1910.

[NYDem]

Hochul should easily surpass Cuomo's pathetic performance Upstate in 2018. He only won 6 counties, and Tompkins was the only one where he exceeded 53%.

[NYDem]

Hochul is doing worse than I thought she would at the beginning of the year, but I still don't think Zeldin has any real chance of winning. She might still improve on Cuomo's abysmal upstate performance in 2018, but even that is questionable.

[NYDem]

When was the last time an upstate Dem ran against a downstate Pub for governor? I think that scrambles the dynamics a bit. Traditionally the Pub demagogues against NYC and to a lesser extent the Dem upholds themselves as the defender of NYC against upstate troglodytes. That can't work with these candidates.

1946. The Democrat was Buffalo politician James M. Mead, running against Thomas Dewey. Dewey won 57-43.

[NYDem]

I've got to say that I'm surprised by how poorly this race has gone so far for Hochul. If current polling is at all accurate she isn't going to improve over Cuomo at all Upstate and is going to bleed support in the city. I still would be surprised if she actually loses, but I'm worried about this race dragging down the rest of the ticket now.

[NYDem]

I would be pleasantly surprised with a double digit margin at this point. That being said I seriously doubt that Hochul loses. What I'll be most interested in is where she loses ground and where she gains it (if anywhere). Cuomo's been a chronic underperformer Upstate so it'll be interesting to see the trends with him off the ballot. The flip side of that is the downstate suburbs- I think Hochul is going to greatly underperform Cuomo in Long Island, Staten Island, and Rockland County.

[NYDem]

Is this battle somehow.... helping Hochul? LMAO

Siena has her approval at 56/36, which I think is the highest she's ever gotten in their poll

https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/SNY0123-Crosstabs-SCRI.pdf

I love that every listed individual and organization in that poll has negative approval upstate. We don't like anybody up here.