NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[AGA]

Cuomo had a pretty bad handling of the pandemic, but that doesn't make the viable alternatives any better. There will be a strong left-wing primary challenge, but Cuomo is still favored. Cuomo is the main force in the way of extreme tax hikes, which would accelerate the outward migration. We are very fortunate that Schumer is Majority Leader, otherwise, the state's finances would be in a more dire situation.

[AGA]

Cuomo may have become Trump in the sense that nothing matters anymore. He's had so many scandals that people are desensitized to them. I wouldn't rule out him winning a fourth term.

[AGA]

Given the recent Trafalgar poll, I consider this race a tossup. The momentum is clearly in Zeldin's favor. I would not be surprised if he hit 40% in Queens at this point.

[AGA]

Given the recent Trafalgar poll, I consider this race a tossup. The momentum is clearly in Zeldin's favor. I would not be surprised if he hit 40% in Queens at this point.

Trafalgar is a biased pollster that has all but admitted to making up numbers to get a desired outcome. Thats not a poll thats picking your respondents.

Its polling was good in VA and NJ last year.

[AGA]

Just say, Led Zeppelin ekes out a narrow victory, say 50,1% to 49.9%, what counties would Hochschul still win?

I'd assume, all NYC boroughs (bar Staten Island), Westchester, Albany, and Tompkins are safe for the Democrat.
The pivotal question will be if she would also be going to Nassau, Rockland, Buffalo and Rochester.

What do you think?

There is no way for Zeldin to win without carrying Nassau and Rockland by a large margin. He would possibly have to carry Erie and Monroe too.

[AGA]

So Zeldin could win this?

PredictIt has Hochul at 98 cents, so I doubt it. The Republican swings are not quite enough. He is bringing it within single digits, though.

EDIT: NBC called it for Hochul too.