NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[Duke of York]

He'll be reelected.

The only NY GOPers who can beat him are: Marc Molinaro, Steve Neuhaus and Michael LiPetri.

Cuomo fatigue may set in, but he will be reelected barring corruption charge or something.

A NY GOPer may win the governorship in 2026 or 2030---if Gov. Hochul has a low approval rating.

You think Hochul will run and win in 2026?

[Duke of York]

According to Axios, the Joe Biden campaign is considering Governor Cuomo for Attorney General.

https://www.axios.com/andrew-cuomo-biden-attorney-general-97fba9a0-03c5-4709-80b9-5e254c2e1e1f.html

If that happens, and Hochul becomes Governor, I'd bet that either she doesn't run, or she loses the primary to someone to her left (AOC, De Blasio, possibly Souzzi)

Hochul would definitely run. I don't see De Blasio winning a statewide primary. Hes not popular. I dont think AOC has any interest in being governor. Suozzi isn't to Hochul's left but I could see him running. Tish James could possibly primary Hochul.

[Duke of York]

According to Axios, the Joe Biden campaign is considering Governor Cuomo for Attorney General.

https://www.axios.com/andrew-cuomo-biden-attorney-general-97fba9a0-03c5-4709-80b9-5e254c2e1e1f.html

If that happens, and Hochul becomes Governor, I'd bet that either she doesn't run, or she loses the primary to someone to her left (AOC, De Blasio, possibly Souzzi)

Hochul would definitely run. I don't see De Blasio winning a statewide primary. Hes not popular. I dont think AOC has any interest in being governor. Suozzi isn't to Hochul's left but I could see him running. Tish James could possibly primary Hochul.

Doubt James would do this. They're from the same lane within the party. She's running for her current position again. Otherwise, I fully agree.

What makes you think James wouldn't run?

[Duke of York]

According to Axios, the Joe Biden campaign is considering Governor Cuomo for Attorney General.

https://www.axios.com/andrew-cuomo-biden-attorney-general-97fba9a0-03c5-4709-80b9-5e254c2e1e1f.html

If that happens, and Hochul becomes Governor, I'd bet that either she doesn't run, or she loses the primary to someone to her left (AOC, De Blasio, possibly Souzzi)

Hochul would definitely run. I don't see De Blasio winning a statewide primary. Hes not popular. I dont think AOC has any interest in being governor. Suozzi isn't to Hochul's left but I could see him running. Tish James could possibly primary Hochul.

Doubt James would do this. They're from the same lane within the party. She's running for her current position again. Otherwise, I fully agree.

What makes you think James wouldn't run?

I just don't see her running against an incumbent from the same lane of her party. I could see her running for governor once an incumbent isn't seeking the Democratic nomination. Challenging an incumbent usually requires you to have a major disagreement with him/her or a message why exactly you're the better choice. It's like Cuomo challenging Joe Biden in 2024 in case he runs for reelection. The challenges Cuomo got in 2014 and 2018 were from the progressive wing, and if there is going to be one in 2022 against Cuomo and/or Hochul, it will be a left-winger (who will likely lose again). James, who's doing a great job as attorney general, is from the establishment and Cuomo/Hochul/James literally ran as a "ticket" in the 2018 primaries. Maybe I'm getting this wrong here, but I don't see James challenging an incumbent governor from her party's wing.

That makes sense. I could see James waiting to run in an open seat. She is definitely going to be a candidate for governor in the future.

If Hochul becomes Governor she would definitely run I could see her winning though I could see Williams or Biaggi running a primary against her. New York has never had a female governor nor has a woman ever been nominated for the position.

[Duke of York]

Stefanik is going to be the next governor (next elected governor if Cuomo resigns) if she wants the job.

Nope Hochul or James will be. I could see Stefanik being the nominee though.

[Duke of York]

Stefanik is going to be the next governor (next elected governor if Cuomo resigns) if she wants the job.

Nope Hochul or James will be. I could see Stefanik being the nominee though.

Yeah, I doubt Stefanik would have a chance against any serious Democrat. New York is just too blue. Furthermore, I'm sure Hochul and/or James would improve in Upstate from Cuomo's 2018 performance.

I doubt it as well. if Cuomo is forced out Hochul will almost certainly run for a full term. James will likely run at some point in the future. It's hard to see her launching a primary against Hochul.

[Duke of York]

Hochul will be the incumbent Governor by summer at the very latest and is likely not going anywhere for a while after that.

I really hope your right on that. I would love if she became Governor.  What makes you think he will not be governor by the Summer?

[Duke of York]

Letitia James would be the one of  black woman to win any statewide election in American history and the first in New York History. That would be amazing but historically New York doesn’t make that kinda history, being one of the few states to have never had elected a female governor, or a minority governor. This leads me to think maybe a dark horse like Biaggi could win/take the plunge against him. However the state party is changing so it could surprise me.

Biaggi would be a much bigger change for the state, as by far the most far-left Governor the state has ever had.

James is pretty well-regarded by the state, so I assume she'll just be the state-backed candidate and have a fairly easy win if Cuomo is still in office but doesn't run again. But if Hochul is put into office by a Cuomo resignation, she'd probably be the favorite.

If Hochul runs for a full  James likely won't primary her.

[Duke of York]

Cuomo expert's take:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366578721826701313

That depends on if more allegations come out and if more people turn against him.

[Duke of York]

Cuomo expert's take:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366578721826701313

That depends on if more allegations come out and if more people turn against him.

Yeah, the guy touched on that in his latest update:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366607698867986434https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366608817920888833

I dont see why Hochul wouldnt run for a full term. She'd likely get it.

[Duke of York]

Cuomo expert's take:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366578721826701313

That depends on if more allegations come out and if more people turn against him.

Yeah, the guy touched on that in his latest update:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366607698867986434https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366608817920888833

I dont see why Hochul wouldnt run for a full term. She'd likely get it.

Hochul would run, and I say a crowd of probably 5-10 candidates as well.

Alessandra Biaggi, Tish James, Jamaal Bowman, Ritchie Torres, Byron Brown, Tim Kennedy, Sean Patrick Maloney, Max Rose, AOC, Chuck Schumer, Hillary, Lindsey Boylan, all have a reason why running for Governor makes sense; on top of NY being a pretty attractive state right now for a post-COVID recovery and the inevitable legalization of sports gambling and marijuana.

My leading bet right now:

No Cuomo resignation, but by May he announces he will not be running in 2022.

Byron Brown wins the primary, given the challenge he's facing right now from DSA and Working Families-endorsed India Walton (who will go on to become Mayor of Buffalo), and Brown goes on to face Janice Dean in the general. Kathy Hochul remains Lieutenant Governor, and Tish James remains NY AG but will face a challenge from a progressive.

Brown, Hochul, and James all go on to win and develop post-COVID NY similarly to how Brown did Buffalo post-recession; likely with help of NYC Mayor Andrew Yang.

I don't think it would be that many people. Why Brown? I don't think hes going to lose reelection.

Hochul can't run for governor and then be chosen as Lt. Governor. The primaries are separate.

[Duke of York]

Cuomo expert's take:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366578721826701313

That depends on if more allegations come out and if more people turn against him.

Yeah, the guy touched on that in his latest update:

https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366607698867986434https://twitter.com/RossBarkan/status/1366608817920888833

I dont see why Hochul wouldnt run for a full term. She'd likely get it.

Hochul would run, and I say a crowd of probably 5-10 candidates as well.

Alessandra Biaggi, Tish James, Jamaal Bowman, Ritchie Torres, Byron Brown, Tim Kennedy, Sean Patrick Maloney, Max Rose, AOC, Chuck Schumer, Hillary, Lindsey Boylan, all have a reason why running for Governor makes sense; on top of NY being a pretty attractive state right now for a post-COVID recovery and the inevitable legalization of sports gambling and marijuana.

My leading bet right now:

No Cuomo resignation, but by May he announces he will not be running in 2022.

Byron Brown wins the primary, given the challenge he's facing right now from DSA and Working Families-endorsed India Walton (who will go on to become Mayor of Buffalo), and Brown goes on to face Janice Dean in the general. Kathy Hochul remains Lieutenant Governor, and Tish James remains NY AG but will face a challenge from a progressive.

Brown, Hochul, and James all go on to win and develop post-COVID NY similarly to how Brown did Buffalo post-recession; likely with help of NYC Mayor Andrew Yang.

I don't think it would be that many people. Why Brown?

Hochul can't run for governor and then be chosen as Lt. Governor. The primaries are separate.

I don't think it'll be that many people that I listed as well, but just pick about 5 of them for starters.

Most Buffalo mayoral races are pretty dead and boring. India Walton, on top of being endorsed by WFP and the DSA, is gaining a good amount of social media traction from my on-the-ground following of the race. By far the strongest opponent Brown has had to face yet in his years of campaigning.

If Cuomo steps aside, Brown has massive networking resources with Dems all across the state, all the way to the DNC even.

From Brown's perspective, you avoid the June primary loss and run for the higher office. He's only been Mayor of Buffalo for 15 years, and unlike Tish James (who I see as having a reverse-Kathy Hochul problem; her perceived role in the nursing home scandal/COVID shutdowns is not very positive here in WNY), I think he'll be the best balance between WNY/Upstate/NYC voters.

As for Hochul, I see her running or flirting with the idea, but likely dropping out before the primary as well. I don't see her doing well outside of Western/Upstate NY.

social media is not a good indicator of election outcomes

[Duke of York]

Hochul would be toast in the primary if she sought a full term as Governor, the NY Democratic Party is not gonna let a random upstater have that job long-term.  Tish James would almost certainly have right of first refusal, regardless of what Hochul does.  Even if James didn't run for whatever reason, the nomination would just go to some other NYC politician rather than Hochul.

I don't think shed be toast if sought a full term. James probably wouldnt run against her. If Hochul didn't;'t run James would be the frontrunner.

[Duke of York]

If elevated, Hochul would definitely run. And I think people greatly underestimate her both as campaigner and as political operator. Tish James, who is in the same political lane, would not run against her, especially not against an incumbent. James may run against Cuomo if he stays on and runs regardless of his scandals, though.

Media attention has now grown on her that more and more state legislators, members of congress and DeBlasio called for Cuomo's resignation from office.

Who Is Cuomo’s Possible Successor, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul?

That has put a spotlight on the woman who would succeed him, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul.

In her seventh year as lieutenant governor, Hochul has forged a reputation as personable and tireless, CBS2’s Tony Aiello reported.

If there’s a ribbon to be cut anywhere in New York, she seems to be there with a smile.

“Indefatigable. I’ve never seen anyone with her energy,” Livingston County Democratic Chair Judith Hunter told Aiello.

Hunter called Hochul an “exceptional public servant.”

[...]

As for her political philosophy?

“She’s not easy to pigeonhole that way,” said Hunter. “She sees it as important to judge each issue as it comes along.”

“In your experience, she’s not strongly ideological, she’s a little more practical?” Aiello asked.

“That would be fair, that would be fair,” Hunter replied.

[...]

CBS Article

If New York actually didn't have an Upstate governor, it's about time. Aside from the fact, she'd be the first female head of state. As I said earlier, I'd advise her to pick a Downstate lieutenant governor from the progressive wing and run as a team in 2022, even if the primaries are separate.

Tish James could either run for governor or senate later on, or replace Merrick Garland should Joe Biden win reelection or Kamala Harris become president in 2025. That may actually be a great spot for James. Or a Supreme Court seat, though Uncle Joe better picks a black woman who's younger than James.

I think its a near certainty James runs for Governor in the future. I don't think she has any desire to go to Washington.

[Duke of York]

I wouldn't put it past Cuomo to defy the legislature and refuse to resign. Even Northam never got to this point.

[Duke of York]

I dont think Cuomo is going to resign no matter who tells him to do so. He'll defy the whole state party. As of today he's given no indication he will. Hochul definitely would be an improvement though.

[Duke of York]

I imagine that if she got elevated to the governorship she'd take the Gillibrand route of moving to the left once in a statewide position since it's already been proven to be an effective strategy in New York.

Oh, I don't think we'll be hearing much about her taking the Conservative Party ballot line in every race prior to her joining Cuomo's ticket. I imagine that she will lead quietly aside from the mandatory fanfare over her being the first woman in charge of the Second Floor.

She's not someone who many people will expect to seek reelection in her own right. That said, if Cuomo actually goes down, there's no telling what the fallout will be. The ensuing power struggle holds the potential for crazy outcomes.

Why wouldn't she seek a full term?

[Duke of York]

Why wouldn't she seek a full term?

She's an erstwhile Blue Dog from Buffalo. Cuomo selected her in 2014 because she was non-threatening, lacking in outward ambitions, and of little consequence to the state party. She nearly lost her last primary to Jumaane Williams and barely managed 60% against Tim Wu of all people in 2014.

Why does that mean she wouldnt run for a full term?

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/NickReisman/status/1368993462473916418

How many votes do they need? Is it a simple majority like at the federal level?

yes simple majority and two thirds to convict in the Senate.  There is no way Cuomo ever resigns.

[Duke of York]

Just for the record, there's another one:

https://twitter.com/timesunion/status/1369387489664921603

He need to resign. Denial is no longer a valid response.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/DickGottfried/status/1369419825542537222?s=20

[Duke of York]

New York should not just get rid of Cuomo because of his terrible conduct on multiple fronts, but also because the alternative is so much better. Just replace the scumbag with this queen to get things on track:

https://twitter.com/NYMag/status/1370062988821069835

Sry to tell you but this NRA supporter and anti-immigrant xenophobe is gonna get primaried and lose.

Both of those are lies.

[Duke of York]

How does Cuomo survive the impeachment trial in the senate?

Switch party registration to Republican. Cut a deal with Trump to rally Republican support for him in exchange for a pardon. Then call in every last favor he has with NY Senate Democrats to get them to vote not to convict. I'm assuming he knows where the bodies are buried and can blackmail/intimidate/whatever a few people to vote in his favor.

How could Trump pardon him?

it would be a very dumb move. Most of the Senate wants him gone such a move would only anger the legislature further and blackmailing legislators would only add to charges for impeachment.

[Duke of York]

How does Cuomo survive the impeachment trial in the senate?

Switch party registration to Republican. Cut a deal with Trump to rally Republican support for him in exchange for a pardon. Then call in every last favor he has with NY Senate Democrats to get them to vote not to convict. I'm assuming he knows where the bodies are buried and can blackmail/intimidate/whatever a few people to vote in his favor.

This entire idea is nonsense.

1. The only thing keeping Cuomo barely afloat right now are the partisan Democrats that choose to look the other way no matter what he does because of the D next to his name. The Republicans aren't just gonna suddenly embrace the guy that they've despised for the past decade just because he suddenly swapped to being a Republican.

2. Why would the Republicans even want Cuomo? The guy likely won't be able to win the GOP primary nor the general in 2022, and he can't really block much legislation since the Democrats have a supermajority in both chambers. They'd be taking in a man they despise and someone who's got numerous counts of sexual harassment...for little/no gain.

3. If Cuomo is switching to the Republican party, why would any senate Democrat, even those that are currently his staunchest allies, stick by him? He'd basically be stabbing the party in the back and then asking said party to bail him out. If anything, switching his affiliation would make his impeachment/conviction assured.

4. Riiiiight, the blackmail strategy has totally worked for Cuomo so far during this scandal and hasn't just caused things to get even worse. /s
Normally when you try to blackmail someone, you need to have some form of leverage over them. Before this all occurred, he had a ton of leverage. He was the popular governor of NY, the guy that no one could touch, and if you wanted to get anywhere in the state's politics, you had to talk to him. Now, he's the guy who Democrats and Republicans across the US are calling to resign including almost the entire NY delegation (which houses some of his staunchest allies). This man has absolutely no leverage, which has become apparent as absolutely no one has been taking his threats seriously and have just been leaking them to the press or talking about them outright, which only serves to damage Cuomo even more.

Perhaps there is a way for Cuomo to weasel his way out of this, but this isn't it.

Trump can take care of 1, he can go on TV and proclaim that Andrew Cuomo has been his buddy for a long time, a fighter up against the Democratic "cancel culture", and that he's on the right side now so Republicans should stand with him. This would be done in exchange for Cuomo pardoning Trump on NY state charges.

You're right on 2, this is a big weakness of this strategy, if Cuomo could stop legislation he could promise the Republicans to veto the coming Democratic NY gerrymander and get the national Republican Party on his side too.

On 3 and 4, if Cuomo gets the 20 Republican senators, he only needs 2 Democratic senators. Of course he wouldn't get them on merit. But NY is a machine politics state and I'm sure there are corpses and skeletons hidden all over the place. Illegal slush funds that lawmakers use to enrich themselves, ties with Jeffrey Epstein, that kind of thing. You and I don't know where they are, but Cuomo surely does, and with this info he could blackmail a few Democratic senators to vote to acquit. Mike Madigan ran IL for decades with this kind of manipulation.

If Cuomo attempted something like that he'd be run out of Albany faster than he get to a press conference.

[Duke of York]

have any state senators/representatives explicitly said they will not vote to impeach him?

as of yet no. The members of the lower house are called assembly members.