NY 2022 - Zeldin/Esposito, Libertarian & WFP updates

[President Johnson]

Endorsed! He's among the top-3 of current governors. Looking forward how King Andy trounces a far-left winger plus the Republican candidate again. However, I'm a little conflicted since I want Queen Kathy to step into the governorship as well. Hopefully she makes it one way or the other (Cuomo would also be a great Attorney General pick for President Biden).

[President Johnson]

I thought he promised in the 2018 primary debates that he would limit himself to 3 terms, of which 2018 was going to be an election to the 3rd of those 3.

I don't recall such a pledge, or any talk thereof, having been made.

He promised more than once not the run for president if reelected. I watched the debate in which he did pretty well. But he didn't limit himself to three terms.

[President Johnson]

Jumaane Williams considers a challenge to Cuomo now. Go ahead, buddy, King Andrew will handily defeat another challenger like he did last time around. He'll be governor as long as he wants.

NYC Public Advocate Jumaane Williams won’t rule out 2022 run against Gov. Cuomo

“Who forecloses on those possibilities? I’m not foreclosing on anything,” Williams said when asked about the prospect at a Crain’s New York Business forum Wednesday.

“That’s a hell of a question. How do you say you’re absolutely not doing anything? I have no idea. I do know I’m running for reelection in 2021 for public advocate. And I’m excited about that,” Williams said. “It’s not a focus. I haven’t done the math on it at all.”

[...]

“He’s, again, earned himself a challenge,” Jumaane Williams said of Cuomo. “Two years is a long time, so maybe he’ll turn out to be the best governor ever in those two years.”

Cuomo has indicated in the past he plans to run for a fourth term in 2022.

“We’ve heard this all before,” Cuomo campaign spokeswoman Gita Tiku said. “This was the argument he made when he ran against Kathy Hochul and the voters rejected him.”

MSN/Daily News

[President Johnson]

Any chance Cuomo might get offered a place in Biden's Cabinet?

Possible he gets an offer yes, but far from certain. Cuomo could very well be nominated for Attorney General or Chief of Staff. I'm actually rooting for this because he would a great job in DC and Kathy Hochul would become New York's first female governor. If Williams actually runs, it would be a rematch of the 2018 lieutenant gubernatorial primary. Hochul would be highly favored I guess unless she makes major errors, which I doubt. She'd be great.

[President Johnson]

George Pataki eyeing another bid?

At least one Pataki confidante said the situation has angered him enough to even consider running against Cuomo in 2022 and denying him the same fourth term Pataki denied his father, Mario, in 1994

NY Post

Quite frankly, I don't see it he's actually getting in again, even though the Republican bench seems thin here. Since New York 2022 is vastly different from 1994, Pataki would have a chance of nearly zero against Cuomo. He's a moderate for sure, but I don't think New Yorkers have any desire to return to a man who has been irrelevant for many years.

[President Johnson]

If Cuomo wins this - as expected - does he launch a 2024 presidential bid if Biden doesn't run for re-election?

I actually hope he will be Attorney General or Chief of Staff under President Biden.

[President Johnson]

So are the Working Families Party going to grow a pair of balls and run their own candidate? Seriously, if they co-nominate Cuomo after everything that has happened, they deserve to lose their ballot access.

Their candidate would get like 5% statewide and Cuomo 53-56% rather than 58-63%. What would be the point?

Also, Cuomo has been a great governor with many archievements such as a Paid Family Leave program, a Student loan program endorsed by Bernie, gun control, protection of women's rights, Same-sex marriage in 2011 and a strong handling of the pandemic (80% approvals here speak for themselves, New York is currently doing better than most other states as well).

[President Johnson]

So are the Working Families Party going to grow a pair of balls and run their own candidate? Seriously, if they co-nominate Cuomo after everything that has happened, they deserve to lose their ballot access.

Their candidate would get like 5% statewide and Cuomo 53-56% rather than 58-63%. What would be the point?

If you don't know how elections in New York work, why are you posting?

The Working Families Party have to get 150k votes to stay on the ballot for the next 4 years. If they don't, they die. That's the point. Cuomo has deliberately taken actions to kill the party with his underlings tripling the ballot access line to where based on 2018 results the only party other than the Democrats and Republicans that would stay on the ballot is the Conservative Party of New York.

I just don't think minor parties make a lot of sense under this voting system, since it's unlikely they ever elect a governor or statewide officials. The Conservative Party is a relic from the 1960s that was formed in opposition to liberal Republican governor Nelson Rockefeller. It elected a senator in 1970 because Democrats and and Republicans split the liberal and moderate vote. They never won a statewide race since. From the Working Families Party, it may make more sense to run a candidate for the sake of staying the ballot. But only for that. I'm not sure they have any chance to elect any official in state politics at all.

[President Johnson]

If Cuomo wins this - as expected - does he launch a 2024 presidential bid if Biden doesn't run for re-election?

Yeppers.

A Kamala v. Cuomo primary would be interesting.

I think it would be a three way race then, with a progressive or Berniecrat in addition. Anyway, I think Kamala would win, though I would prefer Cuomo then.

[President Johnson]

According to Axios, the Joe Biden campaign is considering Governor Cuomo for Attorney General.

https://www.axios.com/andrew-cuomo-biden-attorney-general-97fba9a0-03c5-4709-80b9-5e254c2e1e1f.html

OHHH YEEEEEEEAAAAAH! But unironically.

Andrew Cuomo would be a fine Attorney General (or Chief of Staff). Actually doubt Cuomo will run for president in 2024 in case Joe Biden only serves a single term. The nomination would be Kamala's. But I wouldn't count out President Biden seeking reelection if he's popular and his health permits out. I actually hope he will be two-termer should be fit to serve.

As for New York, I'd be love to see Governor Kathy Hochul. I doubt a primary challenge would be a real danger to her; always felt her relative underwhelming performance in 2018 was due to low name recognition statewide and Williams' being from New York City, raking up votes there (he got destroyed in Upstate). As governor, she wouldn't suffer from low name recognition and the Democratic base may be excited about a woman being in the top job. I'm not even sure a left-winger can win a statewide primary in New York. Williams would lose again, DeBlasio is a joke and AOC won't be interested (not even sure she's that popular outside the progressive wing). Furthermore, I think Kathy Hochul would govern to the left of Cuomo. She was more centrist while representing a red district in congress, but seems like she has moved to the left as Cuomo's No. 2. As for the general election, I could see her doing better than Cuomo even in a Biden midterm. She's a good fit for Upstate New York, where Cuomo didn't do so well in 2014 and 2018 (compared to 2010 or to Schumer/Gillibrand). In her congressional races, she did extremely well for a Democrat in deep red districts.

[President Johnson]

According to Axios, the Joe Biden campaign is considering Governor Cuomo for Attorney General.

https://www.axios.com/andrew-cuomo-biden-attorney-general-97fba9a0-03c5-4709-80b9-5e254c2e1e1f.html

If that happens, and Hochul becomes Governor, I'd bet that either she doesn't run, or she loses the primary to someone to her left (AOC, De Blasio, possibly Souzzi)

Hochul would definitely run. I don't see De Blasio winning a statewide primary. Hes not popular. I dont think AOC has any interest in being governor. Suozzi isn't to Hochul's left but I could see him running. Tish James could possibly primary Hochul.

Doubt James would do this. They're from the same lane within the party. She's running for her current position again. Otherwise, I fully agree.

[President Johnson]

According to Axios, the Joe Biden campaign is considering Governor Cuomo for Attorney General.

https://www.axios.com/andrew-cuomo-biden-attorney-general-97fba9a0-03c5-4709-80b9-5e254c2e1e1f.html

If that happens, and Hochul becomes Governor, I'd bet that either she doesn't run, or she loses the primary to someone to her left (AOC, De Blasio, possibly Souzzi)

Hochul would definitely run. I don't see De Blasio winning a statewide primary. Hes not popular. I dont think AOC has any interest in being governor. Suozzi isn't to Hochul's left but I could see him running. Tish James could possibly primary Hochul.

Doubt James would do this. They're from the same lane within the party. She's running for her current position again. Otherwise, I fully agree.

What makes you think James wouldn't run?

I just don't see her running against an incumbent from the same lane of her party. I could see her running for governor once an incumbent isn't seeking the Democratic nomination. Challenging an incumbent usually requires you to have a major disagreement with him/her or a message why exactly you're the better choice. It's like Cuomo challenging Joe Biden in 2024 in case he runs for reelection. The challenges Cuomo got in 2014 and 2018 were from the progressive wing, and if there is going to be one in 2022 against Cuomo and/or Hochul, it will be a left-winger (who will likely lose again). James, who's doing a great job as attorney general, is from the establishment and Cuomo/Hochul/James literally ran as a "ticket" in the 2018 primaries. Maybe I'm getting this wrong here, but I don't see James challenging an incumbent governor from her party's wing.

[President Johnson]

So it looks like Cuomo won't join the Biden Administration? Meh. I demand Governor Kathy Hochul.

[President Johnson]

Cuomo will probably face more than one challenge this time. The question is whether Hochul and James go uncontested. At least I hope these two will. Too bad Uncle Joe didn't take Cuomo out.

[President Johnson]

I agree Uncle Joe and Chuck Schumer should step in and push Cuomo out. Or Hochul and James pull a Frank Underwood and get rid of Cuomo by working to impeach. I used to like him before, but he's grossly incompetent with Covid and an arrogant fool. I understand the pandemic is a difficult task nobody was really prepared and mistakes routinely happen when humans are involved, but the negligence and attitude Cuomo and some in his team are handling this is unacceptable. If he at least would acknowledge his mistakes and be transparent, he's just not doing it. If he were consequential, he'd resign from office.

[President Johnson]

Stefanik is going to be the next governor (next elected governor if Cuomo resigns) if she wants the job.

Nope Hochul or James will be. I could see Stefanik being the nominee though.

Yeah, I doubt Stefanik would have a chance against any serious Democrat. New York is just too blue. Furthermore, I'm sure Hochul and/or James would improve in Upstate from Cuomo's 2018 performance.

[President Johnson]

Stefanik is going to be the next governor (next elected governor if Cuomo resigns) if she wants the job.

Nope Hochul or James will be. I could see Stefanik being the nominee though.

Yeah, I doubt Stefanik would have a chance against any serious Democrat. New York is just too blue. Furthermore, I'm sure Hochul and/or James would improve in Upstate from Cuomo's 2018 performance.

A New York Republican has to run a Pataki 1994-1998-2002 campaign......they need to make inroads in the NYC suburbs.....they can, especially with police unions endorsing the NYGOP now...

It's not the late 1990s anymore. It's like saying a Pete Wilson Republican can win California or Phil Bredesen type Democrat can get elected governor of Tennessee. Even in Republican wave elections like 2010 and 2014, they got blown out. And all the candidates they have to offer or who have a chance at the nomination don't have it to overcome the partisan lean and strength of the Democratic candidates. I just don't see it.

[President Johnson]

I wonder AOC isn't calling for Cuomo's resignation yet. If even she doesn't at this point, it makes me wonder whether more powerful people will. Maybe once the investigations produce more evidence, but I'd rather have the guy gone sooner than later.

[President Johnson]

Literally anyone who primaries Cuomo = endorsed

The arrogant fool needs to resign. Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer need to tell him that his time in office is over. If he doesn't go voluntarily, the nursing home scandal and these accusations should lead to impeachment.

Also, what a hypocrite publically supporting a women's agenda and being abusive behind closed doors. He should be ashamed.

[President Johnson]

If elevated, Hochul would definitely run. And I think people greatly underestimate her both as campaigner and as political operator. Tish James, who is in the same political lane, would not run against her, especially not against an incumbent. James may run against Cuomo if he stays on and runs regardless of his scandals, though.

Media attention has now grown on her that more and more state legislators, members of congress and DeBlasio called for Cuomo's resignation from office.

Who Is Cuomo’s Possible Successor, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul?

That has put a spotlight on the woman who would succeed him, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul.

In her seventh year as lieutenant governor, Hochul has forged a reputation as personable and tireless, CBS2’s Tony Aiello reported.

If there’s a ribbon to be cut anywhere in New York, she seems to be there with a smile.

“Indefatigable. I’ve never seen anyone with her energy,” Livingston County Democratic Chair Judith Hunter told Aiello.

Hunter called Hochul an “exceptional public servant.”

[...]

As for her political philosophy?

“She’s not easy to pigeonhole that way,” said Hunter. “She sees it as important to judge each issue as it comes along.”

“In your experience, she’s not strongly ideological, she’s a little more practical?” Aiello asked.

“That would be fair, that would be fair,” Hunter replied.

[...]

CBS Article

If New York actually didn't have an Upstate governor, it's about time. Aside from the fact, she'd be the first female head of state. As I said earlier, I'd advise her to pick a Downstate lieutenant governor from the progressive wing and run as a team in 2022, even if the primaries are separate.

Tish James could either run for governor or senate later on, or replace Merrick Garland should Joe Biden win reelection or Kamala Harris become president in 2025. That may actually be a great spot for James. Or a Supreme Court seat, though Uncle Joe better picks a black woman who's younger than James.

[President Johnson]

If elevated, Hochul would definitely run. And I think people greatly underestimate her both as campaigner and as political operator. Tish James, who is in the same political lane, would not run against her, especially not against an incumbent. James may run against Cuomo if he stays on and runs regardless of his scandals, though.

Media attention has now grown on her that more and more state legislators, members of congress and DeBlasio called for Cuomo's resignation from office.

Who Is Cuomo’s Possible Successor, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul?

That has put a spotlight on the woman who would succeed him, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul.

In her seventh year as lieutenant governor, Hochul has forged a reputation as personable and tireless, CBS2’s Tony Aiello reported.

If there’s a ribbon to be cut anywhere in New York, she seems to be there with a smile.

“Indefatigable. I’ve never seen anyone with her energy,” Livingston County Democratic Chair Judith Hunter told Aiello.

Hunter called Hochul an “exceptional public servant.”

[...]

As for her political philosophy?

“She’s not easy to pigeonhole that way,” said Hunter. “She sees it as important to judge each issue as it comes along.”

“In your experience, she’s not strongly ideological, she’s a little more practical?” Aiello asked.

“That would be fair, that would be fair,” Hunter replied.

[...]

CBS Article

If New York actually didn't have an Upstate governor, it's about time. Aside from the fact, she'd be the first female head of state. As I said earlier, I'd advise her to pick a Downstate lieutenant governor from the progressive wing and run as a team in 2022, even if the primaries are separate.

Tish James could either run for governor or senate later on, or replace Merrick Garland should Joe Biden win reelection or Kamala Harris become president in 2025. That may actually be a great spot for James. Or a Supreme Court seat, though Uncle Joe better picks a black woman who's younger than James.

Why wouldn't James run for Governor?  I mean, if anything, it's more likely Hochul doesn't run and either way, it'd be James' race to lose.

In any case, it's not Hochul herself that's the problem.  Most NYC Democrats will feel no loyalty to her and likely regard her as some random nobody from upstate who got lucky.  If not James, then Hochul will lose just as badly to whichever non-De Blasio NYC politician decides to run instead.  

This is one of those races where even if Hochul does everything right and her non-De Blasio NYC opponent does everything wrong (short of having a career-ending scandal), there's still probably not a realistic path to victory for Hochul.

Well, but she defeated Williams back in 2018, who was from New York City. Furthermore, I doubt voters in New York City and Long Island actually care about the fact Hochul is from Buffalo (heck, that's actually an argument for Democrats to improve in Upstate again). In the end, it's Democratic primary voters who decide the nomination and not a bunch of NYC politicans in smokefilled rooms. Of course it depends on her governing style, but I don't see why Democrats would not nominate the first female governor if she does a good job. Furthermore, I don't see why Democrats in the State Legislature wouldn't back her if she gets things done. She'll seek alliances there; she's been in public service for a while and on different levels - local, state and federal - she knows the game well. It also should be noted that Hochul has relationships with Kirsten Gillibrand, Schumer and Hillary, whom would most likely support her bid as they did in previous elections. Especially Gillibrand and Hillary, who remain popular among New York Democrats.

As others said as well, James very likely won't oppose an incumbent of the same lane within the party, especially if there isn't much she would do differently. If Hochul draws a primary challenge, it will be someone from the progressive wing.

Of course, I may be wrong here, or everything turns out differently, who knows. First off, Cuomo actually has to resign, which he hopefully does as soon as possible. Then we may have a clearer picture after the first few months.

[President Johnson]

I asked this in one of the polling threads, but it’s probably a better match for this megathread.

If Cuomo runs and wins the Dem nomination, will the WFP and WEP nominate him too?

I doubt it this time because they have already called for his resignation. Nominating him after that would make them look like a complete joke.

[President Johnson]

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/NickReisman/status/1368993462473916418

Chance of this being voted on soon?

I'm not sure. Probably needs one of the investigations to be completed and published first. I wish he'd just resign.

[President Johnson]

Just for the record, there's another one:

https://twitter.com/timesunion/status/1369387489664921603