Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[AmericanNation]

It looks like Neubauer got 44,000 more votes then Dallet, an increase of 8% whereas Hagedorn got 165,000 more then Screnock, an increase of 37%. I assume there were virtually no voters who switched, I can't really see Dallet voters going for Hagedorn and vice versa so it looks like of the extra 209,000 voters who came out, 80% were Republicans, which of course begs the question why Republican turnout was so low in April 2018 compared to this year.

Screnock ran/had a bad campaign run for him. Hagedorn ran a good campaign. Screnock was a decent candidate, but Hagedorn either knew how to run or knew who to ask and Screnock didn’t. Political awareness vs just being a judge.

This was a weird race in that the lefty’s going negative early with the claim that being a Christian is being a bigot and thus Christians can’t be allowed to be judges actually worked in nuking out a lot of money that was lined up for Hagedorn.
However, eventually word got out late because of a lack of funds or late funds and this mobilized grass roots and county orgs significantly, which caused a late surge.

So, the dirty campaign by the left backfired in the end, despite being initially successful.
 

[AmericanNation]

You also had Governor Evers propose an insane budget and a Dane county judge put a crazy injunction on perfectly legal laws, which gave Evers a small window (before crazy injunction was overruled by higher court) to fire/replace state employees he has no authority to... So, you had a small constitutional crisis created by crazy lefties in the middle of this campaign.  I can’t imagine that was good for Neubauer.

[Virginiá]

Screnock ran/had a bad campaign run for him. Hagedorn ran a good campaign. Screnock was a decent candidate, but Hagedorn either knew how to run or knew who to ask and Screnock didn’t. Political awareness vs just being a judge.

Can this be elaborated on or is it the typical Atlas post-election history revision where a bad campaign turns into a good campaign just because they stumbled into a win? Because it's still very possible if not the most likely explanation for most elections that a candidate won regardless of how "good" or "bad" their campaign was.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Screnock ran/had a bad campaign run for him. Hagedorn ran a good campaign. Screnock was a decent candidate, but Hagedorn either knew how to run or knew who to ask and Screnock didn’t. Political awareness vs just being a judge.

Can this be elaborated on or is it the typical Atlas post-election history revision where a bad campaign turns into a good campaign just because they stumbled into a win? Because it's still very possible if not the most likely explanation for most elections that a candidate won regardless of how "good" or "bad" their campaign was.

Worth noting that we shouldn't even be debating whether or not Hagedorn ran a "good campaign" and had good "political awareness" because a system where a judge has to do either of those things is repulsive.

[Duke of York]

Screnock ran/had a bad campaign run for him. Hagedorn ran a good campaign. Screnock was a decent candidate, but Hagedorn either knew how to run or knew who to ask and Screnock didn’t. Political awareness vs just being a judge.

Can this be elaborated on or is it the typical Atlas post-election history revision where a bad campaign turns into a good campaign just because they stumbled into a win? Because it's still very possible if not the most likely explanation for most elections that a candidate won regardless of how "good" or "bad" their campaign was.

Worth noting that we shouldn't even be debating whether or not Hagedorn ran a "good campaign" and had good "political awareness" because a system where a judge has to do either of those things is repulsive.

I agree completely. Judges should not be elected.  Plus to extrapolate this election and say Wisconsin is safe R in 2020 is ludicrous.

[Sestak]

One thing that I will note is that if the Dems can not completely screw up in Milwaukee while holding these results elsewhere, it becomes a rather easy win. The state most certainly isn’t gone, in fact, we can now say there’s a clear path for th Dems. The problem is that it still requires several things to happen at the same time.

[Nyvin]

You also had Governor Evers propose an insane budget and a Dane county judge put a crazy injunction on perfectly legal laws, which gave Evers a small window (before crazy injunction was overruled by higher court) to fire/replace state employees he has no authority to... So, you had a small constitutional crisis created by crazy lefties in the middle of this campaign.  I can’t imagine that was good for Neubauer.

The reason he has no authority to is because late in 2018 the Republicans passed a power grab law taking it away, while Scott Walker had that same power his entire 8 year term.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

One thing that I will note is that if the Dems can not completely screw up in Milwaukee while holding these results elsewhere, it becomes a rather easy win. The state most certainly isn’t gone, in fact, we can now say there’s a clear path for th Dems. The problem is that it still requires several things to happen at the same time.

The thing is that while the GOP did have strong turnout in WOW and in Racine and Kenosha, it was lower among the driftless area farmers who were key to Trump's victory. This is normal considering how wealthier woke Madison commuters are more likely to vote in these judge elections in the spring while Milwaukee doesn't turn out unless they have a real reason to do so.

[AmericanNation]

Screnock ran/had a bad campaign run for him. Hagedorn ran a good campaign. Screnock was a decent candidate, but Hagedorn either knew how to run or knew who to ask and Screnock didn’t. Political awareness vs just being a judge.

Can this be elaborated on or is it the typical Atlas post-election history revision where a bad campaign turns into a good campaign just because they stumbled into a win? Because it's still very possible if not the most likely explanation for most elections that a candidate won regardless of how "good" or
"bad" their campaign was.

Worth noting that we shouldn't even be debating whether or not Hagedorn ran a "good campaign" and had good "political awareness" because a system where a judge has to do either of those things is repulsive.

I agree completely. Judges should not be elected.  Plus to extrapolate this election and say Wisconsin is safe R in 2020 is ludicrous.

When you are outspent 4 to 1, Labeled a bigot by the mainstream media, and at a significant organizational disadvantage compared with the unions and Eric Holder type groups, than you have to run a good campaign and have some political awareness in order to win or you’ll be holding a tuba and losing by 11 points like Screnock. 

Hagedorn was Scott Walker’s attorney and his dad is chairman of the Milwaukee county GOP. I think it’s fair to say he knows more about politics than an average judge.

[Xing]

People extrapolating these results to 2020: Why did Democrats win GA-06 while losing SC-05 so badly in 2018? The special election results of 2017 told me that SC-05 is more Democratic than GA-06.

[Scottholes 2.0]

It is comical for anyone to regard Wisconsin as "Safe R" based on an election with higher Republican enthusiasm and turnout. I am a firm believer that WI has more Democrats than Republicans, but this election merely reinforced the idea that when Milwaukee and Dane Dems fail to match the Republican enthusiasm and turnout seen across the state, then WI becomes a Lean R state. Contrary to what others think on here, even Dane County could have produced at least 10k more votes to save the Dems.

However, this election does make me fear for 2020 because I just don't trust Milwaukee to turnout even when the DNC gets held there. Thanks, Milwaukee! Now the GOP maintains a majority in the state supreme court, (and even if 2020 goes the other way, they will still maintain the 5-4 lead) this likely means there will be no legal THC for the state, and no meaningful redistricting/anti-gerrymandering reform, and probably zero sound environmental policies probably for at least another decade. We just turned WI backward....AGAIN.

[Duke of York]

It is comical for anyone to regard Wisconsin as "Safe R" based on an election with higher Republican enthusiasm and turnout. I am a firm believer that WI has more Democrats than Republicans, but this election merely reinforced the idea that when Milwaukee and Dane Dems fail to match the Republican enthusiasm and turnout seen across the state, then WI becomes a Lean R state. Contrary to what others think on here, even Dane County could have produced at least 10k more votes to save the Dems.

However, this election does make me fear for 2020 because I just don't trust Milwaukee to turnout even when the DNC gets held there. Thanks, Milwaukee! Now the GOP maintains a majority in the state supreme court, (and even if 2020 goes the other way, they will still maintain the 5-4 lead) this likely means there will be no legal THC for the state, and no meaningful redistricting/anti-gerrymandering reform, and probably zero sound environmental policies probably for at least another decade. We just turned WI backward....AGAIN.

its truly amazing to me how apathetical people are. they complain and whine about how things are but can't get off their butts to vote when it matters. there are more than enough votes in Milwaukee and Dane county to prevent a Republican from winning but too many people are too lazy to walk into a polling place and cast a ballot.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     50.2%   605,728
Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     49.8%   599,766
3638 of 3638 (100%) Precincts Reporting, 1,205,494 Total Votes

[ON Progressive]

It is comical for anyone to regard Wisconsin as "Safe R" based on an election with higher Republican enthusiasm and turnout. I am a firm believer that WI has more Democrats than Republicans, but this election merely reinforced the idea that when Milwaukee and Dane Dems fail to match the Republican enthusiasm and turnout seen across the state, then WI becomes a Lean R state. Contrary to what others think on here, even Dane County could have produced at least 10k more votes to save the Dems.

However, this election does make me fear for 2020 because I just don't trust Milwaukee to turnout even when the DNC gets held there. Thanks, Milwaukee! Now the GOP maintains a majority in the state supreme court, (and even if 2020 goes the other way, they will still maintain the 5-4 lead) this likely means there will be no legal THC for the state, and no meaningful redistricting/anti-gerrymandering reform, and probably zero sound environmental policies probably for at least another decade. We just turned WI backward....AGAIN.

its truly amazing to me how apathetical people are. they complain and whine about how things are but can't get off their butts to vote when it matters. there are more than enough votes in Milwaukee and Dane county to prevent a Republican from winning but too many people are too lazy to walk into a polling place and cast a ballot.

To be completely fair, Dane turnout was fine. In fact, we did amazing in Madison and the counties surrounding it. Milwaukee on the other hand...

[Duke of York]

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     50.2%   605,728
Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     49.8%   599,766
3638 of 3638 (100%) Precincts Reporting, 1,205,494 Total Votes

If only Milwaukee had turned out Neubauer would have won but too many people are too lazy to get off their butts and vote in every election. Come 2020 Republicans will win another illegitimate majority in the state legislature by getting a minority of votes and power grabs by Republicans will be upheld. I hope they are happy.

[Beet]

Don't lose all hope. There's still a chance the Democrats could expand the Supreme Court and take federal action against gerrymandering at some point in the next decade.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

People extrapolating these results to 2020: Why did Democrats win GA-06 while losing SC-05 so badly in 2018? The special election results of 2017 told me that SC-05 is more Democratic than GA-06.

I get what you're saying but SC-05 is probably a bad example given that Parnell's domestic abuse came to light between the special and the midterm.

[Gass3268]

People extrapolating these results to 2020: Why did Democrats win GA-06 while losing SC-05 so badly in 2018? The special election results of 2017 told me that SC-05 is more Democratic than GA-06.

People are completely ignoring the fact that there is literally zero party or ideological label on the ballot too. Yes, most people who went and voted probably knew where each candidate leaned, but there probably has a decent minority of voters who had no idea who either were or where they stood. That might not matter in a blowout like we had last year, but you can't tell me that doesn't have an effect in a races with about a 5,900 vote margin. Also I'm pretty sure Hagedorn's name came first on the ballot.

[AmericanNation]

People extrapolating these results to 2020: Why did Democrats win GA-06 while losing SC-05 so badly in 2018? The special election results of 2017 told me that SC-05 is more Democratic than GA-06.

People are completely ignoring the fact that there is literally zero party or ideological label on the ballot too. Yes, most people who went and voted probably knew where each candidate leaned, but there probably has a decent minority of voters who had no idea who either were or where they stood. That might not matter in a blowout like we had last year, but you can't tell me that doesn't have an effect in a races with about a 5,900 vote margin. Also I'm pretty sure Hagedorn's name came first on the ballot.

The counter to that is women have tended to win judicial elections recently from either side.

[Xing]

People extrapolating these results to 2020: Why did Democrats win GA-06 while losing SC-05 so badly in 2018? The special election results of 2017 told me that SC-05 is more Democratic than GA-06.

I get what you're saying but SC-05 is probably a bad example given that Parnell's domestic abuse came to light between the special and the midterm.

Given the margin, there's almost no way Democrats would've won SC-05 with a good candidate, either.

[At-Large Senator LouisvilleThunder]

People extrapolating these results to 2020: Why did Democrats win GA-06 while losing SC-05 so badly in 2018? The special election results of 2017 told me that SC-05 is more Democratic than GA-06.

People are completely ignoring the fact that there is literally zero party or ideological label on the ballot too. Yes, most people who went and voted probably knew where each candidate leaned, but there probably has a decent minority of voters who had no idea who either were or where they stood. That might not matter in a blowout like we had last year, but you can't tell me that doesn't have an effect in a races with about a 5,900 vote margin. Also I'm pretty sure Hagedorn's name came first on the ballot.

The counter to that is women have tended to win judicial elections recently from either side.

There is also the fact that Neubauer massively outspent Hagedorn as business organizations pretty much triaged him as they thought his controversial social conservatism made him DOA considering the election results in last year's justice election.

[Xing]

Raising the spending the most money really doesn't matter anywhere near as much as people say. Evers was massively outspent by Walker, and we saw how much that mattered.

[Devout Centrist]

Wow. This is a horrific defeat. Here is the wikipedia article on this election. Absolutely terrible.

[Dr. Arch]

Wow. This is a horrific defeat. Here is the wikipedia article on this election. Absolutely terrible.

lmao, Wisconsin is like a whiter Florida, politically-speaking.

[ElectionsGuy]

Wow. This is a horrific defeat. Here is the wikipedia article on this election. Absolutely terrible.

And yet Prosser did much better than Hagedorn in metro Milwaukee and much worse in driftless and rural western areas, even as Hagedorn overperformed in metro Milwaukee and underperformed in rural areas compared to recent presidential and congressional elections. These trends are still easily visible even in a much less nationalized dynamic.