Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Gass3268]

Senate District 11


Counties: Ozaukee, Washington, & Waukesha
Largest City: Menomonee Falls
PVI: R+17
2018 GOV: 66.7-32.3 Walker 
2018 SEN: 61.238.7 Vukmir

Assembly District 31


Counties: Waukesha
Largest City: Menomonee Falls
PVI: R+17
2018 GOV: 65.9-32.8 Walker
2018 SEN: 60.5-39.4 Vukmir

Assembly District 32


Counties: Washington
Largest City: Germantown
PVI: R+22
2018 GOV: 72.2-26.6 Walker
2018 SEN: 66.9-33.1 Evers

Assembly District 33


Counties: Ozaukee
Largest City: Mequon
PVI: R+14
2018 GOV: 62.0-36.8 Walker
2018 SEN: 57.0-42.8 Vukmir

Notes: This district is comprised of the northern suburbs of Milwaukee found in the WOW counties. One difficult choice I had to make was to either combine the Menomonee Falls based Assembly districts with two Assembly districts in Washington County, which would involve stretching out to the exurbs of West Bend, or taking the most suburban district of Washington County and combining with the more suburban district of Ozaukee County. To me it made more sense to group together the communities that where the closest to Milwaukee County in terms of being a larger community of interest. Also, a Mequon to Fond du Lac district would look really ugly and contorted. The Senate district and all three Assembly seats are very Republican. Maybe someday a district like Assembly District 33 could move into the likely or lean Republican category, but we are not there yet.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I'm sorry, but after last week's SCOTUS race, I doubt there will be fair redistricting in Wisconsin for at least another decade.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 12


Counties: Milwaukee & Waukesha
Largest City: New Berlin
PVI: R+13
2018 GOV: 62.6-36.4 Walker
2018 SEN: 57.3-42.6 Vukmir

Assembly District 34


Counties: Waukesha
Largest City: New Berlin
PVI: R+17
2018 GOV: 66.6-32.1 Walker
2018 SEN: 61.9-37.9 Vukmir

Assembly District 35


Counties: Milwaukee & Waukesha
Largest City: Muskego
PVI: R+14
2018 GOV: 62.4-36.2 Walker
2018 SEN: 57.5-42.3 Vukmir

Assembly District 36


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Oak Creek
PVI: R+7
2018 GOV: 56.2-42.3 Walker
2018 SEN: 51.0-48.9 Vukmir

Notes: Milwaukee County has enough population for 16.50 Assembly districts. That means that the county has enough population for 5.5 Senate Districts and this is the district that has to take in population from another county. The idea for this district was to have Southern Milwaukee combined with Southeast Waukesha County. In terms of the Assembly districts this meant one started in Oak Creek and then took half of Franklin. The next took the other half of Franklin plus Greendale, Hales Corners, plus Muskego. The final district is made up of New Berlin, the Town of Waukesha, the Town of Vernon, and Big Bend. The City of Franklin is the largest municipality split that if the map was drawn differently would not have had to have been split. However, it was the only way to make the rest of Milwaukee County work. The Senate district and and Assembly Districts 34 and 35 are safe Republican, while Assembly District 36 is likely Republican.

[Virginiá]

I'm sorry, but after last week's SCOTUS race, I doubt there will be fair redistricting in Wisconsin for at least another decade.

I mean, Republicans don't really have an option to bypass Evers now. They can't override a veto and the state courts have already ruled (albeit generations ago) that redistricting is done by statute. It'll probably get punted to the courts, but there is no evidence of state judiciaries brazenly gerrymander themselves. The worst that has happened since the last redistricting cycle is courts adopting interim maps based on gerrymanders, but those are only temporary (or supposed to be). Maybe at worst the courts come up with a plan that is slightly more favorable to Republicans than Democrats but still within the bounds of reasonable.

[Gass3268]

I'm sorry, but after last week's SCOTUS race, I doubt there will be fair redistricting in Wisconsin for at least another decade.

I mean, Republicans don't really have an option to bypass Evers now. They can't override a veto and the state courts have already ruled (albeit generations ago) that redistricting is done by statute. It'll probably get punted to the courts, but there is no evidence of state judiciaries brazenly gerrymander themselves. The worst that has happened since the last redistricting cycle is courts adopting interim maps based on gerrymanders, but those are only temporary (or supposed to be). Maybe at worst the courts come up with a plan that is slightly more favorable to Republicans than Democrats but still within the bounds of reasonable.

It will probably be a race between each side to see where they can get the case litigated (Republicans would probably prefer state courts, Democrats would probably prefer the Federal Western District of Wisconsin), but yeah I don't see either route being especially egregious.

[MasterJedi]

If you want to see the current conservative agenda in Wisconsin go look at the Fox 6 Milwaukee FB page and comments on the story about the state removing the words "mental retardation". It's totally not surprising at all but to boil it down it's "libtards" "Evers/liberals are retarded" and "are they offended".

[Gass3268]

Senate District 13


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: West Allis
PVI: D+1
2018 GOV: 52.5-45.6 Evers
2018 SEN: 58.6-41.2 Baldwin

Assembly District 37


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Greenfield
PVI: R+2
2018 GOV: 49.6-48.3 Walker
2018 SEN: 54.9-44.9 Baldwin

Assembly District 38


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: West Allis
PVI: D+1
2018 GOV: 51.4-45.9 Evers
2018 SEN: 57.8-41.9 Baldwin

Assembly District 39


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Wauwatosa
PVI: D+4
2018 GOV: 56.6-41.6 Evers
2018 SEN: 62.1-37.7 Baldwin

Notes: The concept behind this district was to combine the three major suburban cities in Western Milwaukee. All that was needed were just a few wards from the western arms of Milwaukee to get to the necessary population. For the Assembly districts, each of the three cities got to be the core of the district. Assembly Districts 37 and 39 needed portions of Milwaukee to get to the necessary population, while West Allis was too big for one district so Assembly District 39 also had to grab a small piece from it. The end result is a Senate District that is definitely a toss up, however is starting to move more strongly to the left as Wauwatosa abandons the Republican Party. Both Assembly districts 37 and 38 are both toss up seats, with the Republicans being favored in 37 and the Democrats favored in 38. While, Assembly District 39 leans Democratic, maybe even likely Democratic given recent trends.

[ElectionsGuy]

If you want to see the current conservative agenda in Wisconsin go look at the Fox 6 Milwaukee FB page and comments on the story about the state removing the words "mental retardation". It's totally not surprising at all but to boil it down it's "libtards" "Evers/liberals are retarded" and "are they offended".

Yes, the conservative agenda is what a few people write on a Facebook page.

[Sestak]

If you want to see the current conservative agenda in Wisconsin go look at the Fox 6 Milwaukee FB page and comments on the story about the state removing the words "mental retardation". It's totally not surprising at all but to boil it down it's "libtards" "Evers/liberals are retarded" and "are they offended".

Yes, the conservative agenda is what a few people write on a Facebook page.

Nowadays? Yes, pretty much.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 14


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-North
PVI: D+31
2018 GOV: 80.2-18.2 Evers
2018 SEN: 83.7-16.1 Baldwin

Assembly District 40


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-Center North
PVI: D+30
2018 GOV: 80.2-18.1 Evers
2018 SEN: 83.7-16.2 Baldwin

Assembly District 41


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-Northeast
PVI: D+32
2018 GOV: 80.7-17.7 Evers
2018 SEN: 84.3-15.6 Baldwin

Assembly District 42


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-Northwest
PVI: D+30
2018 GOV: 79.5-18.8 Evers
2018 SEN: 83.2-16.6 Baldwin

Notes: This is the first of two black Senate districts in the City of Milwaukee (plus Brown Deer) at 58% here in Far-North Milwaukee. The goal when dividing up this district into Assembly Districts was to prevent any one district from being an illegal pack of black voters. As such, Assembly District 40 is 56% black, Assembly District 41 is 62% black, and Assembly District 42 is 57% black. The Senate district and all three Assembly districts are extreamly safe Democratic.

[Tartarus Sauce]

If you want to see the current conservative agenda in Wisconsin go look at the Fox 6 Milwaukee FB page and comments on the story about the state removing the words "mental retardation". It's totally not surprising at all but to boil it down it's "libtards" "Evers/liberals are retarded" and "are they offended".

Yes, the conservative agenda is what a few people write on a Facebook page.

Nowadays? Yes, pretty much.

[Koharu]

Honestly, the coverage and campaigning in this campaign didn't start early enough.

I went as a SVD to nursing homes in my community to get the votes of those who can't get out to vote. We went out about a month before the election so that we could also register new voters if anyone wanted to register or update their address etc. No one knew anything about the candidates and most of them declined to vote this time around.

Even Wisconsin Public Radio didn't start taking about the race until about two weeks before it happened. I got a whole bunch of texts asking me to turn out for the election, but they were all within a week of the election. The first debate was March 15, a little over two weeks before the election, and the second was March 26, exactly a week before. In my precinct, we only had 120 absentee ballots out of 1500 total ballots, so turn out for early voting was pretty low.

As much as people hate election coverage, it sends the needs to be more coverage earlier or at least more reminders to vote that aren't last minute to actually get people to turn out.

Madison was helped by having the mayoral race. Since it was also only the supreme court at the state level, a lot of people just couldn't be bothered to turn out. The only other things on the ballot here were uncontested school board elections. I'm sure it was the same in many other communities.

All that to say that this election shouldn't be seen as some sort of pattern-setting election. I am horrified at what this means for the state supreme court, but as an indicator of future election results, this election is meaningless.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 15


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-South
PVI: D+19
2018 GOV: 69.3-28.4 Evers
2018 SEN: 74.2-25.5 Baldwin

Assembly District 43


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-Southwest
PVI: D+9
2018 GOV: 60.4-37.4 Evers
2018 SEN: 65.7-34.0 Baldwin

Assembly District 44


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-Southeast
PVI: D+28
2018 GOV: 76.5-21.0 Evers
2018 SEN: 81.4-18.5 Baldwin

Assembly District 45


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-Center South
PVI: D+28
2018 GOV: 77.1-20.3 Evers
2018 SEN: 81.4-18.4 Baldwin

Notes: The objective of this district was to take the vast majority of Southern Milwaukee, plus a portion of Downtown and The Village of West Milwaukee. This district is also plurality Hispanic at 48%, which means it's probably over 50% in 2019. In terms of creating Assembly districts, I was trying to following closely to what was actually drawn after the court case in 2012 that required one district to be drawn that would allow the Hispanic community the ability to elect a Representative of their choice. This ended up being Assembly District 44, which is 64% Hispanic. Assembly District 45 was then drawn to incorporate as much of the Hispanic community in the area that could not be placed in the prior district. Assembly District 45 is 55% Hispanic. The final district, Assembly District 43, took the remaining area and is about 2/3rds white. The Senate district and all 3 Assembly districts are safe Democratic, however Assembly District 43 is close to only likely Democratic.

[Scottholes 2.0]

The latest MU Law School poll in WI shows that 46 percent of registered voters approve of President Trump (a 2 percent increase since January), while 52 percent disapprove of him. Scott Walker lost re-election with a 48 percent approval rating, so let's hope Trump's approval rating stays stagnant until November 2020.

Moreover, Evers' approval rating is 47 percent while 37 percent disapprove of him and 15 percent don't have an opinion of him.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/

[MT Treasurer]

^That’s a lot better than his national average. Regardless of whether Trump wins the state again or not (in a close race, I’d be surprised if he didn’t), it’s pretty clear that WI will vote to the right of the nation as a whole and have a R PVI after 2020.

[Scottholes 2.0]

^That’s a lot better than his national average. Regardless of whether Trump wins the state again or not (in a close race, I’d be surprised if he didn’t), it’s pretty clear that WI will vote to the right of the nation as a whole and have an R PVI after 2020.

Frankly, I'm shocked it's even that high. I expect Trump to do worse in WOW than Walker and underperform his winning margin in that region in 2016. He must be consolidating support in the rural parts of the state or the Fox Valley. Either way, my state is unpredictable. WI has clearly reverted back to its pre-Obama years when presidential elections were dead heats. It's sad to know that another Democratic presidential candidate may not be as popular as Obama was in WI.

[Annatar]

Would recommend this presentation, data begins in 2012, over past 2 years GOP has overtaken Democrats in Party ID, gone from a 5% advantage for Dems in Party ID to around 2% for GOP. Will be interesting to see how far this trend continues, would love if there was similar data for other states like PA that we could look at.

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/MLSP52PresentationFinal.pdf

[MT Treasurer]

^That’s a lot better than his national average. Regardless of whether Trump wins the state again or not (in a close race, I’d be surprised if he didn’t), it’s pretty clear that WI will vote to the right of the nation as a whole and have an R PVI after 2020.

Frankly, I'm shocked it's even that high. I expect Trump to do worse in WOW than Walker and underperform his winning margin in that region in 2016. He must be consolidating support in the rural parts of the state or the Fox Valley. Either way, my state is unpredictable. WI has clearly reverted back to its pre-Obama years when presidential elections were dead heats. It's sad to know that another Democratic presidential candidate may not be as popular as Obama was in WI.

True, but the major difference between the pre-Trump years and now is that the WI of 2019 is a dead heat even as Democrats have a sizable advantage in the popular vote, which was generally not the case in the past, with the notable exception of 2000, when Gore won it by 0.2% and it was (barely, however) more Republican than the nation overall. It’s not that WI is close per se, it’s the fact that it’s close with Democrats leading by 5+ points nationally that is a sign that WI hasn’t reverted back to its pre-Obama years.

That said, he still needs those numbers to be a little better than 46/52 on election day. A 48/51 split might be enough.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

^That’s a lot better than his national average. Regardless of whether Trump wins the state again or not (in a close race, I’d be surprised if he didn’t), it’s pretty clear that WI will vote to the right of the nation as a whole and have an R PVI after 2020.

Frankly, I'm shocked it's even that high. I expect Trump to do worse in WOW than Walker and underperform his winning margin in that region in 2016. He must be consolidating support in the rural parts of the state or the Fox Valley. Either way, my state is unpredictable. WI has clearly reverted back to its pre-Obama years when presidential elections were dead heats. It's sad to know that another Democratic presidential candidate may not be as popular as Obama was in WI.

True, but the major difference between the pre-Trump years and now is that the WI of 2019 is a dead heat even as Democrats have a sizable advantage in the popular vote, which was generally not the case in the past, with the notable exception of 2000, when Gore won it by 0.2% and it was (barely, however) more Republican than the nation overall. It’s not that WI is close per se, it’s the fact that it’s close with Democrats leading by 5+ points nationally that is a sign that WI hasn’t reverted back to its pre-Obama years.

That said, he still needs those numbers to be a little better than 46/52 on election day. A 48/51 split might be enough.

Trump ran against Hilary Climton in 2016, our nominee wont be Hilary and would do alot better in WI than she did

[Gass3268]

Senate District 16


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-Center
PVI: D+41
2018 GOV: 90.2-8.1 Evers
2018 SEN: 92.3-7.5 Baldwin

Assembly District 46


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-Center West
PVI: D+39
2018 GOV: 87.8-10.6 Evers
2018 SEN: 90.1-9.8 Baldwin

Assembly District 47


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-Center
PVI: D+40
2018 GOV: 91.5-6.4 Evers
2018 SEN: 93.4-6.3 Baldwin

Assembly District 48


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-Center East
PVI: D+43
2018 GOV: 91.7-6.6 Evers
2018 SEN: 93.9-6.0 Baldwin

Notes: This district was drawn around Near-Northside Milwaukee, the Marquette campus, and parts of downtown. This is the more black of the two Senate Districts at 70% black. Some of the precincts in this district are like 90%+ black and one of the biggest pieces of evidence as to why Milwaukee is statistically the most segregated city in the United States. Again, when drawing the Assembly Districts my goal was not to over pack the black vote into any given district and as such Assembly District 46 is 69% black, Assembly District 47 is 71% black, and Assembly District 48 is 70% black. It's not shocking then that both the Senate District and all three Assembly Districts are extremely safe Democratic and are actually the most Democratic districts in the state.

[OSR stands with Israel]

^That’s a lot better than his national average. Regardless of whether Trump wins the state again or not (in a close race, I’d be surprised if he didn’t), it’s pretty clear that WI will vote to the right of the nation as a whole and have an R PVI after 2020.

Frankly, I'm shocked it's even that high. I expect Trump to do worse in WOW than Walker and underperform his winning margin in that region in 2016. He must be consolidating support in the rural parts of the state or the Fox Valley. Either way, my state is unpredictable. WI has clearly reverted back to its pre-Obama years when presidential elections were dead heats. It's sad to know that another Democratic presidential candidate may not be as popular as Obama was in WI.

True, but the major difference between the pre-Trump years and now is that the WI of 2019 is a dead heat even as Democrats have a sizable advantage in the popular vote, which was generally not the case in the past, with the notable exception of 2000, when Gore won it by 0.2% and it was (barely, however) more Republican than the nation overall. It’s not that WI is close per se, it’s the fact that it’s close with Democrats leading by 5+ points nationally that is a sign that WI hasn’t reverted back to its pre-Obama years.

That said, he still needs those numbers to be a little better than 46/52 on election day. A 48/51 split might be enough.

Yeah, I think people on this forum are still way underestimating Trump's reelection odds. It doesn't matter what his popular vote numbers are as long as he ekes out wins in the states he needs. As long as he wins WI, AZ, FL, GA, and NE-2 again he wins the White House, 270-268. And if you put a gun to my head now, I would guess that he's probably narrowly favored in each of those places individually. Maybe not NE-2, but there's nothing stopping the Nebraska legislature from redistricting before 2020 or just straight up repealing the Electoral Vote split law entirely. In fact, if I were the national Republican Party I would be lobbying hard for them to do that ASAP since a 269-269 tie is a very realistic possibility.

Wouldnt Maine do the same thing then

[Gass3268]

Senate District 17


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-East
PVI: D+14
2018 GOV: 65.9-32.1 Evers
2018 SEN: 71.0-28.8 Baldwin

Assembly District 49


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: South Milwaukee
PVI: D+5
2018 GOV: 55.0-42.4 Evers
2018 SEN: 61.2-39.5 Baldwin

Assembly District 50


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-East
PVI: D+22
2018 GOV: 74.8-22.5 Evers
2018 SEN: 79.1-20.7 Baldwin

Assembly District 51


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Whitefish Bay
PVI: D+14
2018 GOV: 65.7-33.0 Evers
2018 SEN: 70.8-29.1 Baldwin

Notes: This district was designed to connect the the vast majority of the North Shore Milwaukee County suburbs, the City of Milwaukee Lakeshore, and the more working class suburbs in southeast Milwaukee County. The Assembly districts almost split up exactly on those lines as well as the North Shore district and the southeast suburbs districts only had to add a couple precincts from the City of Milwaukee. The Senate district and Assembly Districts 50 and 51 are both safe Democratic, while Assembly District 49 leans Democratic (probably could go as far a likely Democrat with the current incumbent who lives in this district).

[Gass3268]

In case anyone is curious, here is first a Senate then an Assembly map of Milwaukee County:

[Wiz in Wis]

In case anyone is curious, here is first a Senate then an Assembly map of Milwaukee County:

4 safe D and one swing SD in MKE county is very impressive!

[Gass3268]

In case anyone is curious, here is first a Senate then an Assembly map of Milwaukee County:

4 safe D and one swing SD in MKE county is very impressive!

Main change here is the addtion of the one swing SD, compared to the current map which baconmanders the western Milwaukee County suburbs into Waukesha County. The big change is in the Assembly where you go from 12 Democratic Assembly districts (only 11 were drawn to election Democrats, AD-14 has radically shifted leftward, plus now 15 and 24 are also swingly), to 13 Democratic Assembly districts and 2 toss up districts. In the new map there is only 1.5 Republican Assembly districts in Milwaukee County, compared to now where there is about 4.