Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[S019]

The weird thing is in this day in and age this is for sure a winning map in WI.

Yeah, but Hagedorn really overperformed in the Milwaukee suburbs/WOW counties + Dem underperformance in Milwaukee County.

Pretty typical for a spring election without an incumbent. Milwaukee doesn't care unless you make them care.

I still don’t get how Hagedorn was able to win this when Rebecca Dallet won her race in a blowout.

I'm guessing that the anti-Walker mood was already building in WI, and the national GOP was toxic in 2018. This year, Walker is gone and the GOP as a party is not as toxic

[Scottholes 2.0]

The weird thing is in this day in and age this is for sure a winning map in WI.

Yeah, but Hagedorn really overperformed in the Milwaukee suburbs/WOW counties + Dem underperformance in Milwaukee County.

Pretty typical for a spring election without an incumbent. Milwaukee doesn't care unless you make them care.

I still don’t get how Hagedorn was able to win this when Rebecca Dallet won her race in a blowout.

increased republican turnout. democrats held what dallet got for the most part

Yeah, Motivated to get out and vote for a religious and very anti-LGBT bigot? What is wrong with Wisconsin?

[OneJ]

The weird thing is in this day in and age this is for sure a winning map in WI.

Yeah, but Hagedorn really overperformed in the Milwaukee suburbs/WOW counties + Dem underperformance in Milwaukee County.

Pretty typical for a spring election without an incumbent. Milwaukee doesn't care unless you make them care.

I still don’t get how Hagedorn was able to win this when Rebecca Dallet won her race in a blowout.

The easiest explanation would be that Republicans weren't motivated last year...but it still doesn't explain why they were motivated this year (particularly in WOW).

[Tartarus Sauce]

The weird thing is in this day in and age this is for sure a winning map in WI.

Yeah, but Hagedorn really overperformed in the Milwaukee suburbs/WOW counties + Dem underperformance in Milwaukee County.

Pretty typical for a spring election without an incumbent. Milwaukee doesn't care unless you make them care.

I still don’t get how Hagedorn was able to win this when Rebecca Dallet won her race in a blowout.

I'm guessing that the anti-Walker mood was already building in WI, and the national GOP was toxic in 2018. This year, Walker is gone and the GOP as a party is not as toxic

But Hagedorn was a terrible candidate with a history of toxic positions and lost the support of a lot of groups that tend to back conservative justices. The takeaway is that nobody is too extreme for the Republican base if they actually come out to vote.

[IceSpear]

If Neubauer wins, I’ll move WI-PRES from Toss-up to Likely D, declare WI a Democratic-trending/permanent Democratic state and call the 2020 race for the Democratic candidate.

If Hagedorn wins, I’ll move WI-PRES from Toss-up to Likely R, declare WI a Republican-trending/permanent R state and call the 2020 race for Trump.

RATINGS CHANGES becuz of speshul electionz:

PA: Toss up -> Safe D
WI: Toss up -> Safe R
CT: Safe D -> Lean D
OK: Safe R -> Lean R

Well, no, but tonight does reinforce the "PA will be the easiest Trump state for Dems to win back" narrative. 

I think it's always been pretty obvious that WI is the least fertile ground of the MI/PA/WI trio. It's the state where Dems are most dependent on white rural voters to give them a winning coalition, which is problematic for obvious reasons. On top of that, Evers' victory margin in a D+9 Democratic wave year was not exactly impressive, and Dems did worse than Hillary in the one House seat they targeted in the state.

Tammy Baldwin beating a trash-tier candidate by a bit more than the NPV did not suddenly mean Wisconsin was back to being a Democratic stronghold again.

[Sestak]

The weird thing is in this day in and age this is for sure a winning map in WI.

Yeah, but Hagedorn really overperformed in the Milwaukee suburbs/WOW counties + Dem underperformance in Milwaukee County.

Pretty typical for a spring election without an incumbent. Milwaukee doesn't care unless you make them care.

I still don’t get how Hagedorn was able to win this when Rebecca Dallet won her race in a blowout.

I'm guessing that the anti-Walker mood was already building in WI, and the national GOP was toxic in 2018. This year, Walker is gone and the GOP as a party is not as toxic

But Hagedorn was a terrible candidate with a history of toxic positions and lost the support of a lot of groups that tend to back conservative justices. The takeaway is that nobody is too extreme for the Republican base if they actually come out to vote.

Which...we already knew.

[Xing]

This win shows that Trump's win was not a fluke, and WI will be a competitive state

I mean, that was clear regardless, and would've been just as true even if Neubauer had won. I don't think these results automatically make Wisconsin more Republican than Pennsylvania any more than the SC election in 2018 made WI-GOV Safe D, despite what some on Atlas said.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1113280459428048897

[S019]

The weird thing is in this day in and age this is for sure a winning map in WI.

Yeah, but Hagedorn really overperformed in the Milwaukee suburbs/WOW counties + Dem underperformance in Milwaukee County.

Pretty typical for a spring election without an incumbent. Milwaukee doesn't care unless you make them care.

I still don’t get how Hagedorn was able to win this when Rebecca Dallet won her race in a blowout.

I'm guessing that the anti-Walker mood was already building in WI, and the national GOP was toxic in 2018. This year, Walker is gone and the GOP as a party is not as toxic

But Hagedorn was a terrible candidate with a history of toxic positions and lost the support of a lot of groups that tend to back conservative justices. The takeaway is that nobody is too extreme for the Republican base if they actually come out to vote.

A counterpoint to this is some candidates are so terrible (Roy Moore), that a significant portion of the base will just decide not to vote

[Bidenworth2020]

This win shows that Trump's win was not a fluke, and WI will be a competitive state

I mean, that was clear regardless, and would've been just as true even if Neubauer had won. I don't think these results automatically make Wisconsin more Republican than Pennsylvania any more than the SC election in 2018 made WI-GOV Safe D, despite what some on Atlas said.

This. This election was a disgusting underperformance on the democrats part, but I do not see what bearing it has on the 2020 race.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I am sick to my stomach that Hagedorn MIGHT have won. I guess outside of Milwaukee and Dane, Wisconsin really is a truly backward and bigoted state.

[YE]

Y'all really need to breathe though. The Wisconsin Supreme Court will have next to no impact on your life unless you happen to live in the state of Wisconsin. Which at least 90% of Atlas does not.

Means that both houses of WI legislature are Safe R until 2033 - another 14 years before anything progressive can be passed in the state.

A Dem SC could throw out maps mid-decade though, right?

I mean even still, Dems are not efficiently distributed in Wisconsin for it to really change the partisan balance of the congressional delegation under a fair map. I think flipping the Pennsylvania State Senate would matter much more to nationwide redistricting efforts, and Dems have a clear path to doing that now in 2020, though granted they must sweep the three battleground seats to do so (Erie, Dauphin and Delaware counties).

True but I was referring to the state legislature above.

[S019]

Hagedorn's margin just narrowed to 0.2% with 94% in, this may not be completely over

[Bidenworth2020]

Hagedorn's margin just narrowed to 0.2% with 94% in, this may not be completely over

true, especially with absentees out favoring dems.

[Sestak]

NOw 95%, 3.5K. Was ~6K just a moment ago. WTF is this.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Hagedorn's margin just narrowed to 0.2% with 94% in, this may not be completely over

Outagamie is still sitting at 14% reported. There's no way Neubauer can close it all the way.

NOw 95%, 3.5K. Was ~6K just a moment ago. WTF is this.

All of Driftless outside of Richland and a little bit of La Crosse is in. Dems are maxed out with the exception of some of Richland and Portage.

[Bidenworth2020]

I am sick to my stomach that Hagedorn MIGHT have won. I guess outside of Milwaukee and Dane, Wisconsin really is a truly backward and bigoted state.

this was a turnout race, but sadly this is a generally correct assessment

[Zaybay]

NOw 95%, 3.5K. Was ~6K just a moment ago. WTF is this.

The WWC comeback, of course! /s

Nah, Im just kidding, I have no idea whats going on, but Im like 90% sure Hagedorn has this.

[S019]

I think it's always been pretty obvious that WI is the least fertile ground of the MI/PA/WI trio. It's the state where Dems are most dependent on white rural voters to give them a winning coalition, which is problematic for obvious reasons. On top of that, Evers' victory margin in a D+9 Democratic wave year was not exactly impressive, and Dems did worse than Hillary in the one House seat they targeted in the state.

Tammy Baldwin beating a trash-tier candidate by a bit more than the NPV did not suddenly mean Wisconsin was back to being a Democratic stronghold again.

Pretty much. I could still see a scenario in which WI is more Democratic than MI, but yeah, I don’t see how it votes to the left of PA.

Btw, this has tightened to Hagedorn +.2.

I doubt MI votes to the right of WI, because of Detroit, Flint, Ann Arbor, combined being larger vote sinks than Milwaukee and Madison, combined. The WOW Suburbs are still quite Republican and SW WI had a lot of Trump-Feingold voters (populists), in MI, the Kent County trend is not good, nor is losing both MI-08 and MI-11, two CD's that Trump has to win, to have any shot at MI

[YE]

Supreme Court
   Name    Votes    Pct.    
   Brian Hagedorn    569,631    50%    
   Lisa Neubauer    568,118    50%    
92% reporting (3323 of 3600 precincts)

but 14% in Outagamie...



Wisconsin State Supreme Court General Election
Candidate   Percent   Votes
Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     50.2%   570,385
Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     49.8%   566,652
3465 of 3638 (95%) Precincts Reporting, 1,137,037 Total Votes

[Dr. Arch]

It depends on what's outstanding.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Journal Sentinel is:


Lisa Neubauer   569,266   50%   

Brian Hagedorn   568,451   50%   

with 93% in.....they have at least 1K votes for Neubauer DDHQ doesn't

[YE]

Looking at JS Online, my guess is the vote sure came from La Crosse which is now fully out.

[Sestak]

Ok back up to 4K with 96%.

[Pollster]

There appears to be an odd discrepancy between what DDHQ and the Journal are reporting.