Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Gass3268]

The weird thing is in this day in and age this is for sure a winning map in WI.

Yeah, but Hagedorn really overperformed in the Milwaukee suburbs/WOW counties + Dem underperformance in Milwaukee County.

Pretty typical for a spring election without an incumbent. Milwaukee doesn't care unless you make them care.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1113280459428048897

[Gass3268]

Hagedorn being from Kenosha County and getting a home region bump might have done it.

[Gass3268]

Nothing from the City of Appleton yet.

[Gass3268]

Lol, Neubauer is going to win more counties than Evers.

[Gass3268]

Neubauer won Kimberly and Kaukauna in Outagamie County. Evers didn't even do that.

[Gass3268]

In today's political climate in Wisconsin there is absolutely no reason WI-01 should be to the right of WI-07 and WI-08.

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1113358126600851461


https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1113310232963317760

Also Dane County outvoted Milwaukee County, that also should never happen, but appears to be a growing trend for spring elections.

[Gass3268]

People extrapolating these results to 2020: Why did Democrats win GA-06 while losing SC-05 so badly in 2018? The special election results of 2017 told me that SC-05 is more Democratic than GA-06.

People are completely ignoring the fact that there is literally zero party or ideological label on the ballot too. Yes, most people who went and voted probably knew where each candidate leaned, but there probably has a decent minority of voters who had no idea who either were or where they stood. That might not matter in a blowout like we had last year, but you can't tell me that doesn't have an effect in a races with about a 5,900 vote margin. Also I'm pretty sure Hagedorn's name came first on the ballot.

[Gass3268]

After getting pissed off Hofoid and others saying that Democrats are too geographically concentrated to ever have a chance to winning back the state legislature, I decided to drawn my own Wisconsin State Legislature. I have drawn both the State Senate and State Assembly as fair as I could based on my knowledge of the state. I tried to keep counties, metropolitan areas, cities, villages, and townships together as best as I could, while also keeping communities of interest together, again using my knowledge of the state, recognizing that I have certain biases. I also decided to renumber the districts using a method that makes more logical sense. I start in the southeast corner of the state before than moving west along the Illinois border before then continually moving north in a east to west manner. I am open to feedback and suggestions, especially from Wisconsinites and anyone else with a strong understanding of the state.

I should also note that the calculations for the 2018 Governor and Senate race are not 100% exact as the precincts/wards that DRA has for Wisconsin and what was implemented after 2011 redistricting are different enough to cause some issues trying to match things up. In some cases I just had to pick which precinct/ward was more in one district over the other or in some cases just divide up the precinct's vote totals based on the proportionality that was in that district. Finally, I used a deviation limit of 5% for both the Senate and the Assembly. Wisconsin typically uses 1% in real life, however again with the issues of trying to match up voting statists from the 2011 precincts/wards with the base map in DRA using 2001 precincts/wards it was easier to have a little more flexibility, but still being clearly under what the Supreme Court allows for state legislature maps (10%).

[Gass3268]

Senate District 1


Counties: Kenosha & Walworth
Largest City: Kenosha
PVI: D+1
2018 GOV: 49.9-47.4 Evers
2018 SEN: 56.0-43.9 Baldwin

Assembly District 1


Counties: Kenosha
Largest City: Kenosha-South
PVI: D+4
2018 GOV: 53.6-43.3 Evers
2018 SEN: 59.2-40.7 Baldwin

Assembly District 2


Counties: Kenosha
Largest City: Kenosha-North
PVI: D+12
2018 GOV: 60.3-36.5 Evers
2018 SEN: 65.9-36.5 Baldwin

Assembly District 3


Counties: Kenosha & Walworth
Largest City: Salem Lakes
PVI: R+11
2018 GOV: 59.9-36.5 Walker
2018 SEN: 55.6-44.2 Vukmir

Notes: Kenosha County has enough population for 2.90 Assembly Seats or 96.67% of one Senate Seat. It would probably be possible to have this district be exclusively in Kenosha County, however all three Assembly Seats would have to be very close to the full 5% below the target population and it would probably require awkward splits of the City of Kenosha or other villages/townships. So I added the most southeastern township in Walworth County, plus two villages that live in that township, to round out the population. The City of Kenosha plus the Village of Pleasant Prairie add up perfectly for 2 Assembly seats and then the rest of the County plus the little bit of Walworth works out to be the 3rd. You end up with 2 safe Assembly seats for each party, 1 that leans fairly strongly to the Democrats, and a Toss Up Senate district that leans a bit to the left. Lastly, Assembly district is only 65% white with 19% of the population being Hispanic and 11% black.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 2


Counties: Racine
Largest City: Racine
PVI: EVEN
2018 GOV: 49.6-48.3 Walker
2018 SEN: 54.2-45.6 Baldwin

Assembly District 4


Counties: Racine
Largest City: Mount Pleasant
PVI: D+3
2018 GOV: 51.8-46.0 Evers
2018 SEN: 57.8-42.0 Baldwin

Assembly District 5


Counties: Racine
Largest City: Racine-Center
PVI: D+21
2018 GOV: 68.2-28.7 Evers
2018 SEN: 73.6-26.2 Baldwin

Assembly District 6


Counties: Racine
Largest City: Caledonia
PVI: R+15
2018 GOV: 63.7-34.5 Walker
2018 SEN: 59.4-40.5 Vukmir

Notes: This district is fully in Racine County, which has enough population 3.4 Assembly districts or 1.13 Senate districts. This meant that some parts of the county, the Burlington area and the Town of Waterford, would have to be removed. For one district I tried to keep as much of the City of Racine together, which is just a bit larger than one Assembly district, in order keep it as the only non-Milwaukee district that is majority non-white at 24% black and 23% Hispanic. The remainder of the City of Racine was combined with the large suburban village of Mount Pleasant and most of the smaller suburban villages that surround the City of Racine. The rest of the county that is in Senate District 2 was put into Assembly District 6. The split ends up being similar to Senate District 1, with a seat that is safe for both parties and a third seat that leans to the Democrats. However, due to a mix of a more Republican western seat and lower general turnout for the Democrats in their safe seat, the Senate seat needs up being more competitive as seen by the PVI and the Evers/Walker margin. Depending on if this seat is assigned to either midterm or a presidential years would be pivotal to determining what party has the best chance to capture it.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 3


Counties: Racine, Walworth, & Waukesha
Largest City: Oconomowoc
PVI: R+17
2018 GOV: 66.4-2.3 Walker
2018 SEN: 61.7-38.2 Vukmir

Assembly District 7


Counties: Walworth
Largest City: Elkhorn
PVI: R+10
2018 GOV: 60.6-37.2 Walker
2018 SEN: 55.5-44.3 Vukmir

Assembly District 8


Counties: Racine, Walworth, & Waukesha
Largest City: Burlington
PVI: R+18
2018 GOV: 66.5-31.7 Walker
2018 SEN: 62.4-37.4 Vukmir

Assembly District 9


Counties: Waukesha
Largest City: Oconomowoc
PVI: R+21
2018 GOV: 70.2-28.7 Walker
2018 SEN: 66.2-33.7 Vukmir

Notes: This very Republican district takes up the remaining pieces of Racine County, the vast majority of Walworth County, and Western Waukesha County. When coming up with the Assembly districts, the idea was to have one district that was 100% Walworth County, one district that was 100% Western Waukesha County, and ones districts that took pieces from both plus the portion of Racine County that couldn't fit in Assembly District 6. All three of these districts are very Republican.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 4


Counties: Rock & Walworth
Largest City: Janesville
PVI: D+7
2018 GOV: 58.0-39.6 Evers
2018 SEN: 62.6-37.3 Baldwin

Assembly District 10


Counties: Rock & Walworth
Largest City: Whitewater-South
PVI: D+5
2018 GOV: 56.8-41.0 Evers
2018 SEN: 61.1-38.8 Baldwin

Assembly District 11


Counties: Rock
Largest City: Janesville
PVI: D+10
2018 GOV: 62.1-35.2 Evers
2018 SEN: 66.0-33.9 Baldwin

Assembly District 12


Counties: Rock
Largest City: Beloit
PVI: D+6
2018 GOV: 54.9-42.0 Evers
2018 SEN: 60.8-39.1 Baldwin

Notes: Rock County has enough population for 93% of a Senate district, so adding the Whitewater region of Walworth County made the most logical sense from a population and community of interest point of view. When divided the area into Assembly districts, it essentially came down to having a district built around Janesville, which is just a little bit bigger than the population for an Assembly district, a district built around Beloit and Southern Rock County, and a district that takes up the remainder. The end result is a Senate district that is very likely Democratic, a safe Democratic Assembly seats, and two very likely Democratic Assembly seats. Lastly, Assembly District 12 is 10% black and 13% Hispanic.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 5


Counties: Crawford, Grant, Green, Lafayette, Richland, & Vernon
Largest City: Platteville
PVI: D+1
2018 GOV: 51.0-47.3 Evers
2018 SEN: 57.3-42.7 Baldwin

Assembly District 13


Counties: Grant, Green, & Lafayette
Largest City: Monroe
PVI: D+3
2018 GOV: 52.9-45.1 Evers
2018 SEN: 59.1-40.9 Baldwin

Assembly District 14


Counties: Crawford & Grant
Largest City: Plattville
PVI: EVEN
2018 GOV: 49.4-48.4 Evers
2018 SEN: 54.9-45.1 Baldwin

Assembly District 15


Counties: Crawford, Richland, & Vernon
Largest City: Richland Center
PVI: D+1
2018 GOV: 50.6-47.5 Evers
2018 SEN: 57.7-42.2 Baldwin

Notes: This is your Southern Driftless Area and these six counties together have the prefect population for one Senate district. Unfortunately, these combinations don't work as perfectly to make Assembly districts. Green and Lafayette counties make up 93% of an Assembly district, which means I had to go into Grant county in order to get to at least 95%. Grant County itself is 89% of an Assembly district, which means regardless of the inclusion of the Village of Hazel Green in Assembly District 13, Assembly District 14 was going to need to go into Crawford or Richland County in order to get it's necessary population. I decided to continue up the Mississippi River and add the Prairie du Chien area. The remaining area makes a very compact district on the northern banks of the Wisconsin River. The Senate District is very much a Toss Up and so is Assembly District's 14 and 15, while Assembly District 13 leans towards the Democrats.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 6


Counties: Dane & Iowa
Largest City: Fitchburg
PVI: D+14
2018 GOV: 66.3-32.1 Evers
2018 SEN: 69.9-30.0 Baldwin

Assembly District 16


Counties: Dane & Iowa
Largest City: Mount Horeb
PVI: D+11
2018 GOV: 61.6-36.6 Evers
2018 SEN: 65.9-34.0 Baldwin

Assembly District 17


Counties: Dane
Largest City: Fitchburg
PVI: D+18
2018 GOV: 71.4-26.8 Evers
2018 SEN: 74.3-25.5 Baldwin

Assembly District 18


Counties: Dane
Largest City: Middleton
PVI: D+12
2018 GOV: 65.7-32.8 Evers
2018 SEN: 69.3-30.6 Baldwin

Notes: Dane County has enough population for 8.5 Assembly districts and when you add Iowa County it goes up to 8.91 Assembly districts. With an acceptable population deviation of 5%, this is clearly enough for 9 Assembly districts nested in 3 Senate districts. This particular Senate district takes all of Iowa County and Western Dane County. When dividing it up into Assembly districts, one district took all of Iowa County, plus the two most western columns of Dane County townships and villages, and then finally the Town of Middleton. The other two Assembly districts then logically developed on their own with one taking the southern suburbs and satellite cities/villages of Madison and the other taking the northern ones. The Senate district and all of the Assembly districts are very safe Democratic.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 7


Counties: Dane
Largest City: Madison-West
PVI: D+31
2018 GOV: 83.2-14.8 Evers
2018 SEN: 85.7-14.2 Baldwin

Assembly District 19


Counties: Dane
Largest City: Madison-West
PVI: D+26
2018 GOV: 77.9-20.1 Evers
2018 SEN: 80.7-19.1 Baldwin

Assembly District 20


Counties: Dane
Largest City: Madison-Center West
PVI: D+36
2018 GOV: 87.5-10.8 Evers
2018 SEN: 89.5-10.4 Baldwin

Assembly District 21


Counties: Dane
Largest City: Madison-Center East
PVI: D+33
2018 GOV: 84.8-13.0 Evers
2018 SEN: 87.2-12.6 Baldwin

Notes: This is the core Madison Senate district. The goal here was to put a much of Madison in here as possible. The only non-Madison municipalities that in this district are ones that essentailly had to due to geography (Town of Madison, Village of Shorewood Hills, and Village of Maple Bluff). In terms of the Assembly districts, it needed up being a far west district, a near west district, and a campus/ismuths district. All three Assembly districts and the Senate district are extremely Democratic. Also I should note that Assembly District 20 is about 33% non-white with a mix of 10% Asian, 10% Hispanic, and 9% Black. 

[Gass3268]

Senate District 8


Counties: Dane
Largest City: Madison-East
PVI: D+19
2018 GOV: 71.4-26.9 Evers
2018 SEN: 74.4-25.5 Baldwin

Assembly District 22


Counties: Dane
Largest City: Sun Prairie
PVI: D+20
2018 GOV: 73.2-24.9 Evers
2018 SEN: 76.1-23.8 Baldwin

Assembly District 23


Counties: Dane
Largest City: Madison-East
PVI: D+25
2018 GOV: 78.1-20.2
2018 SEN: 80.6-19.3

Assembly District 24


Counties: Dane
Largest City: Stoughton
PVI: D+11
2018 GOV: 62.2-36.2 Evers
2018 SEN: 65.7-34.1 Baldwin

Notes: This is the final Senate district that takes of Dane County and it includes all of Eastern Dane County plus the vast majority of Eastern Madison. In terms of dividing this area into Assembly districts, the remainder of Madison had to be split in two due to population so it made sense to do one built around Northeast Madison, Sun Prairie, and the Town of Burke and one built around Far East Madison, Monona, McFarland, and the Town of Blooming Grove. The final Assembly district is the more rural areas of Eastern Dane County. Many areas in this district is currently baconmandered into submission by going into Waukesha County. This Senate district and all three Assembly Districts are very safely Democratic. 

[Gass3268]

Senate District 9


Counties: Dodge & Jefferson
Largest City: Watertown
PVI: R+10
2018 GOV: 59.7-38.9 Walker
2018 SEN: 54.8-45.2 Vukmir

Assembly District 26


Counties: Jefferson
Largest City: Fort Atkinson
PVI: R+4
2018 GOV: 51.9-46.3 Walker
2018 SEN: 51.8-48.1 Vukmir

Assembly District 27


Counties: Dodge & Jefferson
Largest City: Watertown
PVI: R+18
2018 GOV: 67.9-30.3 Walker
2018 SEN: 62.9-37.0 Vukmir

Assembly District 28


Counties: Dodge
Largest City: Beaver Dam
PVI: R+9
2018 GOV: 57.7-40.3 Walker
2018 SEN: 53.0-47.0 Vukmir

Notes: Dodge County and Jefferson County combined make up 3.01 Assembly districts, which is essentially perfect for a Senate District. When dividing it up into 3 Assembly districts one was built around Jefferson County, one built around the City of Watertown, and one built around the reminder of Dodge County, particularly the City of Beaver Dam. The Senate district is safe Republican, as well as Assembly District 27 and essentially Assembly District 28. Assembly District 26 leans Republican.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 10


Counties: Waukesha
Largest City: Waukesha
PVI: R+15
2018 GOV: 63.9-34.9 Walker
2018 SEN: 59.4-40.4 Vukmir

Assembly District 28


Counties: Waukesha
Largest City: Pewaukee
PVI: R+22
2018 GOV: 70.4-28.5 Walker
2018 SEN: 66.0-33.8 Vukmir

Assembly District 29


Counties: Waukesha
Largest City: Waukesha-Center
PVI: R+8
2018 GOV: 56.1-41.9 Walker
2018 SEN: 52.0-47.8 Vukmir

Assembly District 30


Counties: Waukesha
Largest City: Brookfield
PVI: R+15
2018 GOV: 62.4-36.4 Walker
2018 SEN: 58.2-41.6 Vukmir

Notes: Waukesha County has enough population for 6.79 Assembly districts or 2.26 Senate districts, however due to constraints caused by surrounding counties population and geography, this is the only Senate district that is 100% only in Waukesha County. The idea was that this district would be made of the central core of Waukesha County, following Interstate 94 through 3/4ths of the district. In terms of the Assembly districts, the goal was to have one built with as much of the City of Waukesha that could fit in one district, one built around the City of Brookfield, and the final one built around Pewaukee and the area that makes up the Arrowhead School District. The Senate district and all three assembly districts are varying degrees of safe Republican, but given the growing leftwing movement in some of the Milwaukee suburbs, I would not be shocked if Assembly District 29 became competative in the future.

[Gass3268]

Wow, Gass, this is great so far.

Thanks! I'm pretty happy with how most of this turned out.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 11


Counties: Ozaukee, Washington, & Waukesha
Largest City: Menomonee Falls
PVI: R+17
2018 GOV: 66.7-32.3 Walker 
2018 SEN: 61.238.7 Vukmir

Assembly District 31


Counties: Waukesha
Largest City: Menomonee Falls
PVI: R+17
2018 GOV: 65.9-32.8 Walker
2018 SEN: 60.5-39.4 Vukmir

Assembly District 32


Counties: Washington
Largest City: Germantown
PVI: R+22
2018 GOV: 72.2-26.6 Walker
2018 SEN: 66.9-33.1 Evers

Assembly District 33


Counties: Ozaukee
Largest City: Mequon
PVI: R+14
2018 GOV: 62.0-36.8 Walker
2018 SEN: 57.0-42.8 Vukmir

Notes: This district is comprised of the northern suburbs of Milwaukee found in the WOW counties. One difficult choice I had to make was to either combine the Menomonee Falls based Assembly districts with two Assembly districts in Washington County, which would involve stretching out to the exurbs of West Bend, or taking the most suburban district of Washington County and combining with the more suburban district of Ozaukee County. To me it made more sense to group together the communities that where the closest to Milwaukee County in terms of being a larger community of interest. Also, a Mequon to Fond du Lac district would look really ugly and contorted. The Senate district and all three Assembly seats are very Republican. Maybe someday a district like Assembly District 33 could move into the likely or lean Republican category, but we are not there yet.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 12


Counties: Milwaukee & Waukesha
Largest City: New Berlin
PVI: R+13
2018 GOV: 62.6-36.4 Walker
2018 SEN: 57.3-42.6 Vukmir

Assembly District 34


Counties: Waukesha
Largest City: New Berlin
PVI: R+17
2018 GOV: 66.6-32.1 Walker
2018 SEN: 61.9-37.9 Vukmir

Assembly District 35


Counties: Milwaukee & Waukesha
Largest City: Muskego
PVI: R+14
2018 GOV: 62.4-36.2 Walker
2018 SEN: 57.5-42.3 Vukmir

Assembly District 36


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Oak Creek
PVI: R+7
2018 GOV: 56.2-42.3 Walker
2018 SEN: 51.0-48.9 Vukmir

Notes: Milwaukee County has enough population for 16.50 Assembly districts. That means that the county has enough population for 5.5 Senate Districts and this is the district that has to take in population from another county. The idea for this district was to have Southern Milwaukee combined with Southeast Waukesha County. In terms of the Assembly districts this meant one started in Oak Creek and then took half of Franklin. The next took the other half of Franklin plus Greendale, Hales Corners, plus Muskego. The final district is made up of New Berlin, the Town of Waukesha, the Town of Vernon, and Big Bend. The City of Franklin is the largest municipality split that if the map was drawn differently would not have had to have been split. However, it was the only way to make the rest of Milwaukee County work. The Senate district and and Assembly Districts 34 and 35 are safe Republican, while Assembly District 36 is likely Republican.

[Gass3268]

I'm sorry, but after last week's SCOTUS race, I doubt there will be fair redistricting in Wisconsin for at least another decade.

I mean, Republicans don't really have an option to bypass Evers now. They can't override a veto and the state courts have already ruled (albeit generations ago) that redistricting is done by statute. It'll probably get punted to the courts, but there is no evidence of state judiciaries brazenly gerrymander themselves. The worst that has happened since the last redistricting cycle is courts adopting interim maps based on gerrymanders, but those are only temporary (or supposed to be). Maybe at worst the courts come up with a plan that is slightly more favorable to Republicans than Democrats but still within the bounds of reasonable.

It will probably be a race between each side to see where they can get the case litigated (Republicans would probably prefer state courts, Democrats would probably prefer the Federal Western District of Wisconsin), but yeah I don't see either route being especially egregious.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 13


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: West Allis
PVI: D+1
2018 GOV: 52.5-45.6 Evers
2018 SEN: 58.6-41.2 Baldwin

Assembly District 37


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Greenfield
PVI: R+2
2018 GOV: 49.6-48.3 Walker
2018 SEN: 54.9-44.9 Baldwin

Assembly District 38


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: West Allis
PVI: D+1
2018 GOV: 51.4-45.9 Evers
2018 SEN: 57.8-41.9 Baldwin

Assembly District 39


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Wauwatosa
PVI: D+4
2018 GOV: 56.6-41.6 Evers
2018 SEN: 62.1-37.7 Baldwin

Notes: The concept behind this district was to combine the three major suburban cities in Western Milwaukee. All that was needed were just a few wards from the western arms of Milwaukee to get to the necessary population. For the Assembly districts, each of the three cities got to be the core of the district. Assembly Districts 37 and 39 needed portions of Milwaukee to get to the necessary population, while West Allis was too big for one district so Assembly District 39 also had to grab a small piece from it. The end result is a Senate District that is definitely a toss up, however is starting to move more strongly to the left as Wauwatosa abandons the Republican Party. Both Assembly districts 37 and 38 are both toss up seats, with the Republicans being favored in 37 and the Democrats favored in 38. While, Assembly District 39 leans Democratic, maybe even likely Democratic given recent trends.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 14


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-North
PVI: D+31
2018 GOV: 80.2-18.2 Evers
2018 SEN: 83.7-16.1 Baldwin

Assembly District 40


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-Center North
PVI: D+30
2018 GOV: 80.2-18.1 Evers
2018 SEN: 83.7-16.2 Baldwin

Assembly District 41


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-Northeast
PVI: D+32
2018 GOV: 80.7-17.7 Evers
2018 SEN: 84.3-15.6 Baldwin

Assembly District 42


Counties: Milwaukee
Largest City: Milwaukee-Northwest
PVI: D+30
2018 GOV: 79.5-18.8 Evers
2018 SEN: 83.2-16.6 Baldwin

Notes: This is the first of two black Senate districts in the City of Milwaukee (plus Brown Deer) at 58% here in Far-North Milwaukee. The goal when dividing up this district into Assembly Districts was to prevent any one district from being an illegal pack of black voters. As such, Assembly District 40 is 56% black, Assembly District 41 is 62% black, and Assembly District 42 is 57% black. The Senate district and all three Assembly districts are extreamly safe Democratic.