Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Bidenworth2020]

Ugh.  I stayed up for this?

[S019]

A year ago the Dems were in good shape in WI. Heck, six months ago they were. What happened? Three straight months of AOC, AOC, AOC, and throw in Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib while you're at it. This is not a faaaar left country. Lauren Underwood and Abby Spanberger represent the median voter who swings Democrat, not AOC. Nancy Pelosi needs to get control of her caucus.

Lauren Underwood is actually one of the most liberal Democrats, according to VoteView

[MT Treasurer]

The weird thing is in this day in and age this is for sure a winning map in WI.

Yeah, but Hagedorn really overperformed in the Milwaukee suburbs/WOW counties + Dem underperformance in Milwaukee County.

[Sestak]

Y'all really need to breathe though. The Wisconsin Supreme Court will have next to no impact on your life unless you happen to live in the state of Wisconsin. Which at least 90% of Atlas does not.

Means that both houses of WI legislature are Safe R until 2033 - another 14 years before anything progressive can be passed in the state.

[libertpaulian]

A year ago the Dems were in good shape in WI. Heck, six months ago they were. What happened? Three straight months of AOC, AOC, AOC, and throw in Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib while you're at it. This is not a faaaar left country. Lauren Underwood and Abby Spanberger represent the median voter who swings Democrat, not AOC. Nancy Pelosi needs to get control of her caucus.

Right, because Elizabeth Warren is soooooo mainstream.  🙄

[Xing]

Disappointing, but not exactly the end of the Democratic Party. There are pretty clear reasons Neubauer underperformed (*cough* Milwaukee), and it's not like these results have much bearing on the presidential race.

[LimoLiberal]

A year ago the Dems were in good shape in WI. Heck, six months ago they were. What happened? Three straight months of AOC, AOC, AOC, and throw in Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib while you're at it. This is not a faaaar left country. Lauren Underwood and Abby Spanberger represent the median voter who swings Democrat, not AOC. Nancy Pelosi needs to get control of her caucus.

This is probably correct.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

So how does the inside of everybody's navel look right now?

[YE]

Y'all really need to breathe though. The Wisconsin Supreme Court will have next to no impact on your life unless you happen to live in the state of Wisconsin. Which at least 90% of Atlas does not.

Means that both houses of WI legislature are Safe R until 2033 - another 14 years before anything progressive can be passed in the state.

A Dem SC could throw out maps mid-decade though, right?

[Sestak]

A year ago the Dems were in good shape in WI. Heck, six months ago they were. What happened? Three straight months of AOC, AOC, AOC, and throw in Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib while you're at it. This is not a faaaar left country. Lauren Underwood and Abby Spanberger represent the median voter who swings Democrat, not AOC. Nancy Pelosi needs to get control of her caucus.

This is probably correct.

Lmao. So AOC caused...turnout to drop in Milwaukee even as Dems held their ground in the Driftless?

[Beet]

A year ago the Dems were in good shape in WI. Heck, six months ago they were. What happened? Three straight months of AOC, AOC, AOC, and throw in Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib while you're at it. This is not a faaaar left country. Lauren Underwood and Abby Spanberger represent the median voter who swings Democrat, not AOC. Nancy Pelosi needs to get control of her caucus.

Right, because Elizabeth Warren is soooooo mainstream.  🙄

At least she doesn't call herself a socialist.

[Scottholes 2.0]

I am done with this state and WI politics. Now we have an anti-LGBT SCOTUS who supports conversion therapy and created a school firing LGBT teachers and students. On top of that, Evers won't be able to undo any of the mess Walker has made.

My question is WHY were Republicans so motivated to vote this year?

[LimoLiberal]

People love to make every excuse for these failures ignoring the obvious: the political environment has changed since the 2018 Whole Foods wave. Trump has regained some popularity in white suburbs, and strengthened his rural standing. The 2020 election will be a hard-fought battle.

[Tartarus Sauce]

Y'all really need to breathe though. The Wisconsin Supreme Court will have next to no impact on your life unless you happen to live in the state of Wisconsin. Which at least 90% of Atlas does not.

Means that both houses of WI legislature are Safe R until 2033 - another 14 years before anything progressive can be passed in the state.

Is Evers not involved in the mapmaking? Pretty sure the WI GOP is one seat short of a veto-proof majority in the senate.

[S019]

Today's result is definitely reasurring

After that debacle in Pennsylvania, today, this was really needed

This win shows that Trump's win was not a fluke, and WI will be a competitive state

[lfromnj]

I am done with this state and WI politics. Now we have an anti-LGBT SCOTUS who supports conversion therapy and created a school firing LGBT teachers and students. On top of that, Evers won't be able to undo any of the mess Walker has made.

My question is WHY were Republicans so motivated to vote this year?

because Rs actually donated money Hagedorn while D's donated 27 per person to Bernie.

[Sestak]

Lead is up to 4.7K with 93% in btw. This is done.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Are there any absentee votes?

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

No matter the result, electing state supreme court justices is dumb and bad.

[MT Treasurer]

The weird thing is in this day in and age this is for sure a winning map in WI.

Yeah, but Hagedorn really overperformed in the Milwaukee suburbs/WOW counties + Dem underperformance in Milwaukee County.

More like Democrats didn't show up at all there is more like it

Eh, they did well in Driftless and won like 80% of the vote in Madison/Dane Co., which had fairly high D turnout.

[Gass3268]

The weird thing is in this day in and age this is for sure a winning map in WI.

Yeah, but Hagedorn really overperformed in the Milwaukee suburbs/WOW counties + Dem underperformance in Milwaukee County.

Pretty typical for a spring election without an incumbent. Milwaukee doesn't care unless you make them care.

[Sestak]

Y'all really need to breathe though. The Wisconsin Supreme Court will have next to no impact on your life unless you happen to live in the state of Wisconsin. Which at least 90% of Atlas does not.

Means that both houses of WI legislature are Safe R until 2033 - another 14 years before anything progressive can be passed in the state.

Is Evers not involved in the mapmaking? Pretty sure the WI GOP is one seat short of a veto-proof majority in the senate.

Yeah but deadlock will go to the Supreme Court. Which, after today, will draw exactly the map Vos and Fitzgerald send them.

[S019]

If Neubauer wins, I’ll move WI-PRES from Toss-up to Likely D, declare WI a Democratic-trending/permanent Democratic state and call the 2020 race for the Democratic candidate.

If Hagedorn wins, I’ll move WI-PRES from Toss-up to Likely R, declare WI a Republican-trending/permanent R state and call the 2020 race for Trump.

RATINGS CHANGES becuz of speshul electionz:

PA: Toss up -> Safe D
WI: Toss up -> Safe R
CT: Safe D -> Lean D
OK: Safe R -> Lean R

Well, no, but tonight does reinforce the "PA will be the easiest Trump state for Dems to win back" narrative. 
 

I agree with this, I think PA is Tossup/Tilt D, WI is Pure Tossup

[Scottholes 2.0]

I promise you, Atlas, you will be seeing a different state next to my username in the next six months.

[Bidenworth2020]

The weird thing is in this day in and age this is for sure a winning map in WI.

Yeah, but Hagedorn really overperformed in the Milwaukee suburbs/WOW counties + Dem underperformance in Milwaukee County.

Pretty typical for a spring election without an incumbent. Milwaukee doesn't care unless you make them care.

I still don’t get how Hagedorn was able to win this when Rebecca Dallet won her race in a blowout.

increased republican turnout. democrats held what dallet got for the most part