Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Duke of York]

Screnock ran/had a bad campaign run for him. Hagedorn ran a good campaign. Screnock was a decent candidate, but Hagedorn either knew how to run or knew who to ask and Screnock didn’t. Political awareness vs just being a judge.

Can this be elaborated on or is it the typical Atlas post-election history revision where a bad campaign turns into a good campaign just because they stumbled into a win? Because it's still very possible if not the most likely explanation for most elections that a candidate won regardless of how "good" or "bad" their campaign was.

Worth noting that we shouldn't even be debating whether or not Hagedorn ran a "good campaign" and had good "political awareness" because a system where a judge has to do either of those things is repulsive.

I agree completely. Judges should not be elected.  Plus to extrapolate this election and say Wisconsin is safe R in 2020 is ludicrous.

[Duke of York]

It is comical for anyone to regard Wisconsin as "Safe R" based on an election with higher Republican enthusiasm and turnout. I am a firm believer that WI has more Democrats than Republicans, but this election merely reinforced the idea that when Milwaukee and Dane Dems fail to match the Republican enthusiasm and turnout seen across the state, then WI becomes a Lean R state. Contrary to what others think on here, even Dane County could have produced at least 10k more votes to save the Dems.

However, this election does make me fear for 2020 because I just don't trust Milwaukee to turnout even when the DNC gets held there. Thanks, Milwaukee! Now the GOP maintains a majority in the state supreme court, (and even if 2020 goes the other way, they will still maintain the 5-4 lead) this likely means there will be no legal THC for the state, and no meaningful redistricting/anti-gerrymandering reform, and probably zero sound environmental policies probably for at least another decade. We just turned WI backward....AGAIN.

its truly amazing to me how apathetical people are. they complain and whine about how things are but can't get off their butts to vote when it matters. there are more than enough votes in Milwaukee and Dane county to prevent a Republican from winning but too many people are too lazy to walk into a polling place and cast a ballot.

[Duke of York]

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     50.2%   605,728
Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     49.8%   599,766
3638 of 3638 (100%) Precincts Reporting, 1,205,494 Total Votes

If only Milwaukee had turned out Neubauer would have won but too many people are too lazy to get off their butts and vote in every election. Come 2020 Republicans will win another illegitimate majority in the state legislature by getting a minority of votes and power grabs by Republicans will be upheld. I hope they are happy.

[Duke of York]

Ozaukee County seems to be divorcing Waukesha and Washington Counties. It voted 63% Republican last night just like in 2018. I guess Ozaukee County now votes R in the low 60s. I know Waukesha County is trending D, but not fast enough! There are still too many hypocritical wealthy college-educated white Republicans left in that crazy county! Believe it or not, though, there are a lot of Democrats in Waukesha County that could've voted. I am so saddened for my state and the WI Democratic Party. Hatred truly won last night!

'
and you can blame people in Milwaukee for not getting off their butts to vote.

[Duke of York]

I wish that the Court election had party labels, like Alabama.

Or better yet don’t elect them at all. Have the governor appoint justices

[Duke of York]

Some good news from the state, Evers has now appointed 1/4 of the appeals court judges in the state.

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1187750044990103554?s=20

Im surprised the Senate let him appoint anyone considering how they won confirm his cabinet nominees.

[Duke of York]

https://www.cbs58.com/news/kleefisch-to-make-special-announcement-next-week-in-waukesha-county

former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch will run for Governor.

[Duke of York]

Evers is gonna win

I hope he does and Democrats make gains in the state legislature.

[Duke of York]

Tom Barrett should retire. He was not a good candidate for governor in 2010 and 2012. He doesn't have a path to Congress if he challenges Moore or whoever

Hes now Ambassador to Luxembourg.

[Duke of York]

https://www.wisn.com/article/gableman-gop-election-review-two-mayors-put-in-jail-if-they-dont-cooperate/39148786

Leader of GOP election review wants mayors of Madison and Green Bay put in jail if they don't cooperate

Multiple independent reviews have found no widespread fraud in Wisconsin

[Duke of York]

I doubt that holds until November, but I don't think Evers is going to lose by that much, and I feel quite confident in saying he'll come closer than Kelly, and won't do significantly worse than Whitmer.

If Evers loses Republicans are going to refuse to certify Democratic victories in the state in 2024.

[Duke of York]

How likely is Johnson to win the mayor election today? I have heard some talk an upset is possible.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/MadelinePawlak/status/1522632270498213891

Is the GOP trying to lose?

They have absolute trash candidates in MI, PA, AZ and are looking to add Wisconsin. That clip is gold for Evers.

Jesus, this is almost the level of that guy who lost in Michigan this past week. She may be one of the GOPs absolute worst recruits across the country

Kleefisch, Mastriano, Kari Lake and whatever comes from Michigan aren't exactly Glenn Youngkin's in the making.

It's also not surprising since Youngkin didn't even have a primary. Wouldn't be surprised if he didn't end up winning if that were the case.

This is possibly true and it begs the question of Virginia style conventions with RCV should be implemented in more places. This would perhaps produce someone who represents the median  GOP primary voter as opposed to the person who represents the highest plurality of voters (but is potentially toxic to other voters). These winners would likely be formidable like Youngkin, since they have proven to be tolerable to all wings and have already practiced campaigning to a wide variety of voters. It also stops people from winning a primary with like 27% of the vote just from running up the score with a certain bloc

No. People should be allowed to pick who they want instead of in party conventions.

[Duke of York]

its just about impossible for Republicans to lose their majority in the either chamber. I am at total loss to understand how either map was upheld. You cannot call your state a democracy when you can lose the popular vote and still get the most seats.

[Duke of York]

All signs pt to a Michels /LOSS he was never Kleefisch

I hope your right.

[Duke of York]

I always forget, is this a top-two primary?

Yes, it is.

Seems like there's a very real possibility of a general election lockout given the dynamic of the four candidates currently announced.

Which party will be shut out?

I'm wondering this as well.

[Duke of York]

I always forget, is this a top-two primary?

Yes, it is.

Seems like there's a very real possibility of a general election lockout given the dynamic of the four candidates currently announced.

Which party will be shut out?

I'm wondering this as well.

It looks like there are two liberals and two conservatives currently running - could be either one if turnout is imbalanced, and one is clearly at high risk if a third candidate gets in.

Whose at higher risk?

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1616437348396326912?s=20

her and Mitchell are the two liberal candidates correct?

[Duke of York]

A nasty snowstorm is set to hit Minnesota and parts of western Wisconsin (mostly rural and Republican) this week....mostly after Tuesday but it's starting Tuesday afternoon.

in 2018 Rebecca Dallet gained Democrats a seat. A major snowstorm blanked most of the state but left Madison and Milwaukee with minimal snow.

[Duke of York]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Thats excellent but they should have a turnout operation in every county. No county should be ignored.

[Duke of York]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Thats excellent but they should have a turnout operation in every county. No county should be ignored.

Good idea in theory and morally, but with the way trends are going in most Wisconsin counties there's a good argument to be made that this hurts WisDems in the longrun more than it helps.

I disagree. I heard turnout in Eau Claire was three times as high as in November, That could have made a difference in the Senate election if it was combined with similar turnout rates in other college towns.

Georgia Dems have a turnout operation in every county. There is no reason Wisconsin can't.

[Duke of York]

Kelly will win. Mark my words.

You always think the Republican will win.

[Duke of York]

I can only imagine what Protasiewicz's polling looks like for her to feel comfortable treating Kelly like a nobody.

https://twitter.com/WISN12News/status/1632815065190608897?s=20

I don't care what someones internal polling looks like declining a debate never makes one look good.

[Duke of York]

I can only imagine what Protasiewicz's polling looks like for her to feel comfortable treating Kelly like a nobody.

https://twitter.com/WISN12News/status/1632815065190608897?s=20

I don't care what someones internal polling looks like declining a debate never makes one look good.

Looks like there will be one debate.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1632820770098274309?s=46&t=cnaSCfvIM...

Good.

WISC is the CBS affiliate for Madison. I wonder why she accepted their invite to debate but not WISN which is the ABC affiliate in Milwaukee.

4pm is also a weird time to air a debate.

[Duke of York]

Why is Protasiewicz spending money in Minneapolis/st Paul along with Duluth?