Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Nyvin]

This was just a close election in a closely divided state.   It doesn't indicate any sort of trend one way or another.   People need to stop overreacting to a ~1% win in an off year election.

[Nyvin]

You also had Governor Evers propose an insane budget and a Dane county judge put a crazy injunction on perfectly legal laws, which gave Evers a small window (before crazy injunction was overruled by higher court) to fire/replace state employees he has no authority to... So, you had a small constitutional crisis created by crazy lefties in the middle of this campaign.  I can’t imagine that was good for Neubauer.

The reason he has no authority to is because late in 2018 the Republicans passed a power grab law taking it away, while Scott Walker had that same power his entire 8 year term.

[Nyvin]

Considering the runoff is on the same day as the Presidential primary, it would take a colossal blunder for Karofsky to lose in my humble opinion.   Although you never know in Wisconsin.

[Nyvin]

It's kinda looking like high turnout all around.

[Nyvin]

With the WOW counties well over 50% in now, as soon as Madison and City of MKE drop, Karofsky is going to come out with a lead that will be near impossible to overcome.

Unless what's being reported is just wildly in favor of Karofsky so far by sheer coincidence.

[Nyvin]

A Dem getting 44% in Ozaukee in a competitive election is WILD.

So is getting 55% in Winnebago.

[Nyvin]

Karofsky didn't even need Madison to win, lol

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/judgekarofsky/status/1249804495112069121

That's awful,  at least on the part of the judges that denied delaying the election.

[Nyvin]

I can't believe Dems were denied a WISC majority because of that F-ing 6k vote, 0.5% margin loss in 2019,  what a travesty that was and SO avoidable.

If I were a Wisconsin Democrat that race would still annoy me to this day.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/zschultzWPT/status/1249846156831666178

Good chance Roggensack (conservative) retires in 2023.

[Nyvin]

Is Taylor County just the most conservative in the state or Kelly's hometown or what?   The margin kinda stands out in the map.

[Nyvin]

Zeigler, Bradley, and Kelly are (/were) the three ardent conservatives on the court,  with Hagedorn being kind of an opportunist centrist and conservative otherwise, and Roggensack probably being the closest thing the court has to a swing vote (but still right of center)

It's really good that Kelly is gone and now Bradley and Zeigler are on their own.   A 4-3 split is actually a huge improvement over the previous 5-2.

[Nyvin]

Zeigler, Bradley, and Kelly are (/were) the three ardent conservatives on the court,  with Hagedorn being kind of an opportunist centrist and conservative otherwise, and Roggensack probably being the closest thing the court has to a swing vote (but still right of center)

It's really good that Kelly is gone and now Bradley and Zeigler are on their own.   A 4-3 split is actually a huge improvement over the previous 5-2.

So Hagedorn was sort of an Anthony Kennedy and Kelly was more of an Antonin Scalia?

No,  Roggensack would be John Roberts,  Hagedorn is Kavanaugh,

Zeigler, Kelly, and (Rebecca) Bradley are Scalia/Alito/Thomas, take your pick.

[Nyvin]

WOW isn't even trending left really lol, I guess Waukesha is but not too much, its really just Ozaukee.

Waukesha went from 32.5% Evers to 38.5% Karofsky.  If margins like that become the new norm in Waukesha then WI GOP is in real trouble.

(Not that I would expect that to happen)

[Nyvin]

Sorry to be a pessimist/cynic, but have we heard anything from the state GOP about appealing the results yet?

Apparently Kelly conceded last night around 8pm,  so probably not.

https://twitter.com/SJohnsonWPR/status/1249854595226050560

[Nyvin]

I think it's Hagedorn, the one who barely beat Neubauer last year.

Yes Hagedorn sided with the two liberals on the voter purge suit. Karofsky's win likely means it will be rejected.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/11/voter-purge-conservatives-ask-court-fast-track-wisconsin-case/5021246002/

Wait really? I thought he was a hardcore republican?

Hagedorn sided with the liberals in this case, but most of the time the swing vote is Roggensack.

[Nyvin]

A bunch of Waukesha coming in put Kerr in the lead.

[Nyvin]

24% in,  Underly leads by 12%, and absolutely nothing in from Milwaukee.

Looks like Underly is running away with it.

Wait, is Kerr even a republican? Just saw on twitter that obama's education secretary endorsed her?

Are Kerr and underly both dems?

Officially yes, but almost all of Kerr's endorsements come from Republicans.

[Nyvin]

What about the judical and special elections ?

Davis (D) got stomped in District 2.

District 3 is close but only 19% in

[Nyvin]

What about the judical and special elections ?

Davis (D) got stomped in District 2.

District 3 is close but only 19% in

Was that expected ?

More or less, yes,  district 2 is literally WoW plus some of eastern WI (also Republican).   It was always going to be tough for a liberal to hold here.

[Nyvin]

Milwaukee's turnout looks absolutely horrible, even for a off year election

[Nyvin]

DDHQ called it for Underly (not sure why it took this long...?).

[Nyvin]

Just learned Betsy Devos not only endorsed Kerr but was actually a major donor too...BLEH!  So happy Underly won now

[Nyvin]

Republicans really bombed in SD-13,  only winning by ~7% or so in a district Trump carried by 19%

[Nyvin]

If Janel Brandtjen wins the R primary for SD-8, then Democrats actually have a really good chance at flipping the seat.

Her and Dan Kelly being the two nominees is probably ideal for Democrats,  they're both big time election deniers which is a really big turnoff for independents.