Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Dr. Arch]

It depends on what's outstanding.

[Dr. Arch]

I reckon Atlas will be seeing a "D-Minnesota" tagline under my username in the next 5-6 months if Hagedorn wins! My faith in the future for WI Dems has officially been tainted.

Once I'm done with my degree, I'm officially out for sure. WI voters can keep their state backwards if they want.

[Dr. Arch]

The bleakest part of the night is that WI is going to be ground zero in 2020, the D nominee campaign is going to call Arch and that "Scottie" guy getting their MA degree for GOTV, and they'll say they moved out of the state because D's lost some judge race in 2019.

lol, I'm going for a PhD, not an MA; I already have that one. Also, I'll be here until 2021, so you can zip it when it comes to 2020. I'll still work the vote.

[Dr. Arch]

The bleakest part of the night is that WI is going to be ground zero in 2020, the D nominee campaign is going to call Arch and that "Scottie" guy getting their MA degree for GOTV, and they'll say they moved out of the state because D's lost some judge race in 2019.

Yeah guys, at least wait until 2020 to see if Trump carries it again before giving up on Wisconsin.

See above

[Dr. Arch]

If you had shown me just that map, I would have guessed something like Neubauer +6 or 7.

Yep, MKE screwing the pooch again.

Also, are those 200ish precincts out early votes? If so, this is not over yet.

[Dr. Arch]

If you had shown me just that map, I would have guessed something like Neubauer +6 or 7.

Yep, MKE screwing the pooch again.

Also, are those 200ish precincts out early votes? If so, this is not over yet.

I don't know about early votes but I read on the twitterverse that absentees have already been counted. Most of the outstanding precincts are the Appleton area.

Those Outagamie precincts are slowly coming in. Kaukauna (Appleton suburb) had Hagedorn getting stomped, Seymour (weirdly small rural town) was a near-tie. I be Appleton proper precincts will favor Neubauer when they come in but obviously nowhere near the Madison-level numbers she would need to make up a 4K vote shortfall.

e: https://www.outagamie.org/government/departments-a-e/county-clerk/elections/election-results look for the precincts prefixed with "C of" (for city of).

Thanks

Candidate   Percent   Votes
Brian Hagedorn (Nonpartisan)     50.2%   588,823
Lisa Neubauer (Nonpartisan)     49.8%   584,325
3535 of 3638 (97%) Precincts Reporting, 1,173,148 Total Votes

HAGEDORN MY KING!!!!!!

You call that bigot your "king"? I thought you were better than that.

[Dr. Arch]

50 precincts to go and the margin is down to -1.5k.

[Dr. Arch]

Wow. This is a horrific defeat. Here is the wikipedia article on this election. Absolutely terrible.

lmao, Wisconsin is like a whiter Florida, politically-speaking.

[Dr. Arch]

Good evening. How's WI Governor Tony Evers (D) doing on the Job since moving into the WI Governor's Residence 5 months ago ?

Really well!

[Dr. Arch]

Someone needed to take the fight to the WI Republican politicians (NC Republicans Lite), who have been ransacking the state since 2010.

[Dr. Arch]

Favorability ratings of elected officials in new Marquette poll:

Evers: 49/35 (+14)
Baldwin: 44/40 (+4)
RonJon: 40/29 (+11)

Evers approval: 54/34 (+20)

Evers 4Ever

[Dr. Arch]

Are Dems in any position to pick up 3 State Senate seats in 2020, or is it noncompetitive until the post-2020 redraw?

Or are #DemsInDisarray?

It's too gerrymandered right now. Dems need 60%+ of the vote in the state house/senate to get a bare majority, barring an unprecedented and insane collapse in WOW.

[Dr. Arch]

Are Dems in any position to pick up 3 State Senate seats in 2020, or is it noncompetitive until the post-2020 redraw?

Or are #DemsInDisarray?

It's too gerrymandered right now. Dems need 60%+ of the vote in the state house/senate to get a bare majority, barring an unprecedented and insane collapse in WOW.

Plus, there’s Patty Schachtner in SD-10 who got in on a special election, is up next year and vulnerable.  She’s basically the Doug Jones of Wisconsin.

That too.

[Dr. Arch]

The primary for Supreme Court Justice is today, two of three candidates will advance to April 7th general election. Two liberals (Jill Korofsky, Ed Fallone), one conservative (Dan Kelly). Very likely Fallone will be defeated and it will go to a Kelly vs Korofsky race. I'll be looking to see what percentage of the vote Kelly gets vs Korofsky + Fallone. I'll be voting shortly

Yep! Just voted for Karofsky.

[Dr. Arch]

lmao, this state has fallen to complete crap.

[Dr. Arch]

I now 100% support packing the courts. Add 100 new Justices for all I care.

Yep! Steal Steal Steal. That's the Republican brand nowadays. I hope Kelly loses on top of all this. It would be at least some form of poetic justice.

[Dr. Arch]

Also WI Republicans: WhY r YunG pe0pl3 LeaVinG th3 StaTe!!!??!?

[Dr. Arch]

How the  can you have FIVE polling stations open in a city of 600,000 and call that a fair election?

~Republicans

[Dr. Arch]

How the  can you have FIVE polling stations open in a city of 600,000 and call that a fair election?

They have one polling station in Waukesha which has more than 70 thousand people, even though it's a Republican stronghold.
They simply don't give a f**k.

I truly hope that the hubris of this whole situation ends up backfiring on them, and Kelly ends up losing the seat regardless. Give us something!

[Dr. Arch]

The absentees still look worse than 2019, though it looks like Dane, since it has so many more polling places, might save democrats.

https://twitter.com/B_M_Finnigan/status/1247508356316749824

Looks like WOW is losing more out of this than Dane+MKE (probably due to Dane staying afloat in this whole mess).

Proportionally speaking, WOW was at 53% of Dane+MKE. Currently, WOW is at 60% of Dane+MKE right now. However, Dane has more than 10 times the polling places open today, and curbside voting, which means that we're likely to end up reducing that difference to under 50% by the end of the day.

[Dr. Arch]

Republicans are very reliant on Waukesha in Supreme Court elections, even more so than in other elections.

Yeah, Democrats do better in all 4 of the Milwaukee metro counties than liberal Supreme Court candidates. Interesting enough, liberal Supreme Court candidates have tended to do better than Democrats in the Southwest part of the state.

I’ve always thought of Brown as a pretty good bellwether, but I could be wrong.

Door county tends to be more bellweather-ish, but nothing about this election is typical in any way. So, who knows what will happen?

P.S. Congrats on your 10,000th post!

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/jcarlislelarsen/status/1247546304944836611?s=20

Good stuff

[Dr. Arch]

^Encouraging, but Karofsky will probably need Dane turnout to be very high to offset high turnout in WOW, even if rural WI turnout is low.

There were more polling stations open in Dane, right?

Yes, well off liberal whites get 66 polling locations in Dane but poor blacks in Milwaukee get 5.

Dane is not universally well-off with it's periphery suburbs and even the poor young people that reside there, but yes wtf is the discrepancy?

Preparation for last minute shifts, most likely. Dane has always been quick and efficient in its responses to externally enforced changes.

I think that this is an example of the advantages of good and well-structured local governance.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1247800837889351682
https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1247901803980582912

Yeah, turnout in the rurals for absentees was bad, but it wouldn't take much on election day for those numbers to be close to normal.

If absentees are down by THAT much across the board in an election where the proportional share of absentee votes is way up due to the current health crisis, I don't expect in-person voting to even come close to making up for it.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1247818110524162049?s=21
This is better then I thought it would be in Madison, could get bit better too as the week progresses.

Hopefully it continues to rises. If Karofsky gets ~80% of the vote here and rural turnout is lower, she could maybe pull it off. Fingers crossed.

Does anybody know of the turnout number (50.3%) includes absentees sent out or the ones it’s received so far?

The ones received so far.