Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Xing]

Guys, call me crazy, but I think Wisconsin might be a swing state.

[Xing]

If Neubauer wins, I’ll move WI-PRES from Toss-up to Likely D, declare WI a Democratic-trending/permanent Democratic state and call the 2020 race for the Democratic candidate.

If Hagedorn wins, I’ll move WI-PRES from Toss-up to Likely R, declare WI a Republican-trending/permanent R state and call the 2020 race for Trump.

Why stop at the presidential race? Why not call every race from this point forward for the D/R depending on this result? That'd be right in line with Atlas analysis.

[Xing]

Disappointing, but not exactly the end of the Democratic Party. There are pretty clear reasons Neubauer underperformed (*cough* Milwaukee), and it's not like these results have much bearing on the presidential race.

[Xing]

This win shows that Trump's win was not a fluke, and WI will be a competitive state

I mean, that was clear regardless, and would've been just as true even if Neubauer had won. I don't think these results automatically make Wisconsin more Republican than Pennsylvania any more than the SC election in 2018 made WI-GOV Safe D, despite what some on Atlas said.

[Xing]

I think it's always been pretty obvious that WI is the least fertile ground of the MI/PA/WI trio. It's the state where Dems are most dependent on white rural voters to give them a winning coalition, which is problematic for obvious reasons. On top of that, Evers' victory margin in a D+9 Democratic wave year was not exactly impressive, and Dems did worse than Hillary in the one House seat they targeted in the state.

Tammy Baldwin beating a trash-tier candidate by a bit more than the NPV did not suddenly mean Wisconsin was back to being a Democratic stronghold again.

I think it's increasingly less true that Democrats need a lot of rural votes in Wisconsin, the way that Madison is growing and a lot of rural areas are shrinking. And you should know better than anyone why Democrats botched that race in WI-01 (not that it was really winnable.) I don't think it makes sense to call Wisconsin anything other than a Toss-Up, and while an argument could be made for Tilt D for Pennsylvania, I don't think that's a sure thing by any means, and will come down to many different things (the Democratic candidate, their strategy, their message, turnout, etc.) I'd be shocked if Pennsylvania voted more than 2-2.5% to the left of Wisconsin.

[Xing]

Democrats need to spend a ton of time in Milwaukee and Detroit to GOTV. While I don't doubt that turnout in Milwaukee will be better in a presidential election, this isn't the first example of weak turnout there being one of the key reasons for a narrow Democratic loss.

[Xing]

If I knew right now that this map would be the county map for the 2020 election, I'd feel very good about the Democrats' chances, since turnout in Milwaukee would be at least a bit better. Still, though, extrapolating about counties from races like this is silly. I don't see any way the Democratic candidate will win Trempealeau while losing Kenosha.

[Xing]

People extrapolating these results to 2020: Why did Democrats win GA-06 while losing SC-05 so badly in 2018? The special election results of 2017 told me that SC-05 is more Democratic than GA-06.

[Xing]

People extrapolating these results to 2020: Why did Democrats win GA-06 while losing SC-05 so badly in 2018? The special election results of 2017 told me that SC-05 is more Democratic than GA-06.

I get what you're saying but SC-05 is probably a bad example given that Parnell's domestic abuse came to light between the special and the midterm.

Given the margin, there's almost no way Democrats would've won SC-05 with a good candidate, either.

[Xing]

Raising the spending the most money really doesn't matter anywhere near as much as people say. Evers was massively outspent by Walker, and we saw how much that mattered.

[Xing]

Considering how insane and chaotic this election is, can we agree to autoban anyone who tries to use the Supreme Court results to extrapolate to anything?

We’d probably be banning at least a third of the site if we did that.

Anyway, WI Republicans are one of the worst state parties in the country, and probably think less of democracy than numerous autocrats in the world. News at 11.

[Xing]

^Encouraging, but Karofsky will probably need Dane turnout to be very high to offset high turnout in WOW, even if rural WI turnout is low.

[Xing]

So how long until the WI GOP tries to nullify the results of an election they were unwilling to let Evers postpone because they don’t like the results?

[Xing]

We can’t really draw conclusions about Ozaukee from this election, but I’d WOW continues trending left, Wisconsin is not going to be a red state any time soon.

[Xing]

Can we change the name of this thread to “WI GOP IN DISARRAY! SAFE D IN NOVEMBER!” now?

I’m anxiously awaiting all of the takes about WI being Titanium Tilt R to become takes about WI being Tungsten Tilt D due to the results of this election.

[Xing]

Karofsky might hit 82% in Dane.

[Xing]

If Kerr wins:

WI-SEN 2022 (with Johnson): Likely D -> Tilt D
WI-SEN 2022 (with Gallagher): Titanium R -> Vibranium R
WI-GOV 2022: Toss-Up -> Likely R
WI-PRES 2024: Toss-Up -> Likely R
WI-SEN 2024: Lean R -> Safe R

If Underly wins:

WI-SEN 2022 (with Johnson): Likely D -> Titanium D
WI-SEN 2022 (with Gallagher): Titanium R -> Likely R
WI-GOV 2022: Toss-Up -> Likely D
WI-PRES 2024: Toss-Up -> Likely D
WI-SEN 2024: Lean R -> Tilt R

[Xing]

Welp, that settles it, Wisconsin is a solid blue state now, unless UTMG is the Republican nominee.

[Xing]

I doubt that holds until November, but I don't think Evers is going to lose by that much, and I feel quite confident in saying he'll come closer than Kelly, and won't do significantly worse than Whitmer.

[Xing]

I might move this back to Toss-Up (still closer to Tilt R than Tilt D), but Democrats winning Wisconsin in a midterm for their party would be quite a departure from the norm.

[Xing]

I might move this back to Toss-Up (still closer to Tilt R than Tilt D), but Democrats winning Wisconsin in a midterm for their party would be quite a departure from the norm.

An incumbent Democratic Wisconsin governor hasn't run for reelection in a Democratic midterm since 1978, and that was an ascended LG. If you're looking for a governor that was actually elected, it was... 1962? Not a lot of historical precedence to back up your assertion. Evers being an incumbent changes the dynamics here.

Fair enough, though Evers has never been especially popular, so I’m not sure how much his incumbency really helps.

[Xing]

I might move this back to Toss-Up (still closer to Tilt R than Tilt D), but Democrats winning Wisconsin in a midterm for their party would be quite a departure from the norm.

Phil Murphy was the first Democratic Governor of New Jersey to be re-elected since 1978.

True, but New Jersey is way more Democratic than Wisconsin.

[Xing]

Quite something that Evers pulled this off, given how few here thought that he would, and that it wasn't even that close, no less!

[Xing]

Stupid question but did Barnes completely step down as Lt Gov or does he get a second term since Evers won?

I believe Sara Rodriguez will be the new LG.

[Xing]

Kelly will win. Mark my words.

Oh my gosh I’m so surprised how will this bold prediction affect the race I think it helps Kelly.