Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Pollster]

Gass,
Who is the favorite for the wi state senate special election?

I would guess the Republican is narrowly favored, but like Spectator said, Democrats do really well in special elections in Wisconsin. They won both WI-01 and WI-10 during the Trump years in special elections. The reason I'm going with the Republican here is that while this is an area that is trending to the left, its still an area where Republicans turn out to vote at a solid clip. Much better than the NE or NW Wisconsin.

It's trending Dem but still one of the most polarized seats in the state - Michels and Vukmir both carried it - so turnout would have to be massively in Dems' favor (which isn't impossible).

It’s a suburban seat so it’s not really that polarized. Yes it’s redder downballot but Michels actually did worse than Trump here. Knodl is favored but an upset is not out of the picture.

"Polarized" gets thrown around a lot these days in misleading, exaggerated, and/or wholly incorrect contexts but functionally means that crossover appeal/swing voting is minimal to nonexistent among an electorate. Trends are one thing (especially suburban trends) but not all suburbs are equal in this realm and this seat is extremely polarized.

Dems have won similar races when turnout is favorable to them.

Turnout advantage is how you win a polarized seat.

[Gass3268]

Couple things:

1. In-person absentee (that's what it's called in Wisconsin) voting starts today. Mail ballots were sent out last week. Some are starting to trickle back in.
2. The only debate of the campaign is happening right now.
3. Biggest item to come out of it is Wisconsin Right to Life changed its website language during the debate to make it seem that Protasiewicz's claim was a lie.

https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/1638241423035101193?s=20
https://twitter.com/benwikler/status/1638245585407946752?s=20

4. Also this, lol:

https://twitter.com/SamRoecker/status/1638247470575517696?s=20

[MasterJedi]

Wife and I got our Janet P’s ballots in the mail late last week. She’s up 2-0! Lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Its VBM will always benefit D's no matter what the odds are

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/napervillepol/status/1638229767269785611?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg

love how this person said Democrats are in trouble with 4000 votes returned. its only been one day.

Waukesha county: 1145
Dane county: 862
Brown county: 641
Milwaukee county: 639
Ozaukee county: 596

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/napervillepol/status/1638229767269785611?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg

love how this person said Democrats are in trouble with 4000 votes returned. its only been one day.

Waukesha county: 1145
Dane county: 862
Brown county: 641
Milwaukee county: 639
Ozaukee county: 596

Where did they find these numbers? I plan to start tracking them closer once Madison begins posting their numbers later this week.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/napervillepol/status/1638229767269785611?s=46&t=nqSV11RbCF5uPVGwzcOMtg

love how this person said Democrats are in trouble with 4000 votes returned. its only been one day.

Waukesha county: 1145
Dane county: 862
Brown county: 641
Milwaukee county: 639
Ozaukee county: 596

Where did they find these numbers? I plan to start tracking them closer once Madison begins posting their numbers later this week.

No idea but how you make any projection from these numbers is ridiculous. The turnout operation Democrats have built in Dane County is amazing and the fact that we have nothing from Madison itself means you can't make any statements about poor turnout.

[walleye26]

Madison has 1,475 early-in person votes today. That number does NOT include mail-in ballots. I will update that number periodically the next couple of weeks as Madison’s City Clerk updated the numbers.

There are 192,000 registered voters in the city of Madison.

[Duke of York]

Madison has 1,475 early-in person votes today. That number does NOT include mail-in ballots. I will update that number periodically the next couple of weeks as Madison’s City Clerk updated the numbers.

There are 192,000 registered voters in the city of Madison.

That does not indicate Democrats are in trouble at all.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1638530970084323334

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1638530970084323334

Given how much cheaper ad rates are for candidates, this disparency is massive.

[SnowLabrador]

Madison has 1,475 early-in person votes today. That number does NOT include mail-in ballots. I will update that number periodically the next couple of weeks as Madison’s City Clerk updated the numbers.

There are 192,000 registered voters in the city of Madison.

That does not indicate Democrats are in trouble at all.

That was sarcasm, right?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Madison has 1,475 early-in person votes today. That number does NOT include mail-in ballots. I will update that number periodically the next couple of weeks as Madison’s City Clerk updated the numbers.

There are 192,000 registered voters in the city of Madison.

That does not indicate Democrats are in trouble at all.

That was sarcasm, right?

No, he simply means that (in an objective, non-doomer world) you cannot draw a conclusion that Democrats are in trouble based on those numbers.

[Gass3268]

Madison has 1,475 early-in person votes today. That number does NOT include mail-in ballots. I will update that number periodically the next couple of weeks as Madison’s City Clerk updated the numbers.

There are 192,000 registered voters in the city of Madison.

That does not indicate Democrats are in trouble at all.

That was sarcasm, right?

No it's not, early vote looks fine. Mail plus processing can take a while at the start. You can't actually believe that the City of Milwaukee has only received 6 absentee ballots via the mail. Also Dane County's reported returns have surged since the beginning of the week. Already up to 5,847, 1,800 more than the next closest (Waukesha County).

[Gass3268]

Milwaukee County doesn't look back either given the backlog.

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1638568067625000961?s=20

[Duke of York]

Milwaukee County doesn't look back either given the backlog.

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1638568067625000961?s=20

That’s not bad at all. That’s quite positive but I try not to read too much into early votes. 

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1638723271821602816?cxt=HHwWgMC94cSI9b...

Another day, and 1,300 Madison voters turned out. Again, this number does NOT include ballots that have been received via mail. According to the clerk’s office, 26,000 Madisonians have requested absentees, which is 13.4% of all eligible voters.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1638723271821602816?cxt=HHwWgMC94cSI9b...
Another day, and 1,300 Madison voters turned out. Again, this number does NOT include ballots that have been received via mail. According to the clerk’s office, 26,000 Madisonians have requested absentees, which is 13.4% of all eligible voters.

Crucial Waukesha Dane County!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Madison has 1,475 early-in person votes today. That number does NOT include mail-in ballots. I will update that number periodically the next couple of weeks as Madison’s City Clerk updated the numbers.

There are 192,000 registered voters in the city of Madison.

That does not indicate Democrats are in trouble at all.

That was sarcasm, right?

If either Fetterman or Shapiro win, I will leave this forum forever.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1638723271821602816?cxt=HHwWgMC94cSI9b...

Another day, and 1,300 Madison voters turned out. Again, this number does NOT include ballots that have been received via mail. According to the clerk’s office, 26,000 Madisonians have requested absentees, which is 13.4% of all eligible voters.

That is very impressive and with more locations opening tomorrow I expect the number to go up.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mollybeck/status/1638879076898476032?s=46&t=cnaSCfvIMWiF...

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/mollybeck/status/1638879076898476032?s=46&t=cnaSCfvIMWiF...

It pains me to say this, but no persuadable voter cares about this. They're way more worried about CRT, an issue that doesn't exist.

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/mollybeck/status/1638879076898476032?s=46&t=cnaSCfvIMWiF...

It pains me to say this, but no persuadable voter cares about this. They're way more worried about CRT, an issue that doesn't exist.

Actually a lot do and the midterms proved it.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/mollybeck/status/1638879076898476032?s=46&t=cnaSCfvIMWiF...

It pains me to say this, but no persuadable voter cares about this. They're way more worried about CRT, an issue that doesn't exist.

Actually a lot do and the midterms proved it.

that comment is exactly why I have SL on ignore.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mollybeck/status/1638879076898476032?s=46&t=cnaSCfvIMWiF...

It pains me to say this, but no persuadable voter cares about this. They're way more worried about CRT, an issue that doesn't exist.

Actually a lot do and the midterms proved it.

that comment is exactly why I have SL on ignore.

He's mildly useful as a negative indicator; whatever he predicts will almost certainly turn out to be wrong.