Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

^That’s a lot better than his national average. Regardless of whether Trump wins the state again or not (in a close race, I’d be surprised if he didn’t), it’s pretty clear that WI will vote to the right of the nation as a whole and have an R PVI after 2020.

Frankly, I'm shocked it's even that high. I expect Trump to do worse in WOW than Walker and underperform his winning margin in that region in 2016. He must be consolidating support in the rural parts of the state or the Fox Valley. Either way, my state is unpredictable. WI has clearly reverted back to its pre-Obama years when presidential elections were dead heats. It's sad to know that another Democratic presidential candidate may not be as popular as Obama was in WI.

True, but the major difference between the pre-Trump years and now is that the WI of 2019 is a dead heat even as Democrats have a sizable advantage in the popular vote, which was generally not the case in the past, with the notable exception of 2000, when Gore won it by 0.2% and it was (barely, however) more Republican than the nation overall. It’s not that WI is close per se, it’s the fact that it’s close with Democrats leading by 5+ points nationally that is a sign that WI hasn’t reverted back to its pre-Obama years.

That said, he still needs those numbers to be a little better than 46/52 on election day. A 48/51 split might be enough.

Trump ran against Hilary Climton in 2016, our nominee wont be Hilary and would do alot better in WI than she did

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI gone for TRUMP

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

J.Doyle from 2003-2011 and he was a D Gov and was scandalous, without a scandal, I don't see Evers losing and Johnson whom blocked and won't vote for stimulus is endangered

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The mandate is to protect consumers, it's silly that Conservative don't see it that way

If they take over Congress they will lift all the restrictions on lockdowns and we aren't out of the woods yet

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Covid is not almost over we are in it for the long haul, as long as there are homeless people, like TB, they transmitt Covid

Politicians care about Donations not a Govt jobs Guarentee and we need it that Gillibrand talked about

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Once Johnson is gone, WI can bread a new batch of Conservatives, he is polarizing and always was look what he did with Hunters
 Biden and Benghazi Hilary

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This was Evers' job before he was Governor, so who knows: a future Gov. could very well be made (or broken) tomorrow.

Ron Kind is running for Gov in 2026 definitely

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Kerr wins:

WI-SEN 2022 (with Johnson): Likely D -> Tilt D
WI-SEN 2022 (with Gallagher): Titanium R -> Vibranium R
WI-GOV 2022: Toss-Up -> Likely R
WI-PRES 2024: Toss-Up -> Likely R
WI-SEN 2024: Lean R -> Safe R

If Underly wins:
..Dems are gonna win WI regardless
WI-SEN 2022 (with Johnson): Likely D -> Titanium D
WI-SEN 2022 (with Gallagher): Titanium R -> Likely R
WI-GOV 2022: Toss-Up -> Likely D
WI-PRES 2024: Toss-Up -> Likely D
WI-SEN 2024: Lean R -> Tilt R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI isn't an R state it voted for Carter and Dukakis and was the D bellweather for Prez since 1992

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI, PA, NH are D plus 2 states and MI is a D3 state according to Cook ratings

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Evers running again
https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2021/06/02/evers-appoints-campaign-manager-effectively-announcing-his-re-election-bid-for-2022-governors-race/7504820002/
The big question is, will Mandela Barnes run again, or run for Senate?

If he gets that Senate nomination, he’ll probably drag Evers down with him after the things he said about the Kenosha riots

Evers and Nelson were leading in Change and Democracy Corp poll 48/44 we will win WI, MI and PA, granted it was RV not  LV screen by Democracy Corp was right on IL Sen 2016 when Kirk lost to Duckworth

We can win WI, PA, MI and don't necessarily need to have the H to do it but we can keep the Senate and keeping the Senate is vital to 2024 certificate of Election

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/tony4wi/status/1401348736123650052?s=21

He's so low energy and uncharismatic.

Perfect for Wisconsin.

It really doesn't matter, Tom Nelson is gonna be our Nominee and he has high energy

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Evers is gonna win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2023/2027 Gov map  Finally the majority
New Govs
Bill Walker, Downing, Baker, Hobbs and Ayotte


JBE and Cooper are TL

Beshear and Kelly will hold on

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We all know what this "big announcement" will be.
https://mobile.twitter.com/wiz_political/status/1435371339532152833
BTW is she still against Gay marriage?

I hope she wins!

She was losing in a Change poll in March 48/44 just like Johnson

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As zi said she was losing in a Change poll in March two of them she won't win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

VA-GOV and NJ-GOV are warning signs about super-heated rural white turnout. This is Lean R if this election is as nationalized as everyone's expecting.

Biden only has to be near or close to 50 percent on Election day we also didn't have Federal candidate runnings we had statewide races Terry underperform in Spanberger district if she was running in 21 he would of won with here higher turnout


Do you realize WI elected Tammy Baldwin and Russ Feingold

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He won't win

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Evers, Whitmer and Shapiro will all win due to downtrend of Omnicron surge

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I doubt that holds until November, but I don't think Evers is going to lose by that much, and I feel quite confident in saying he'll come closer than Kelly, and won't do significantly worse than Whitmer.

If Evers loses Republicans are going to refuse to certify Democratic victories in the state in 2024.

I agree.

Too bad Evers isn't gonna lose according to this poll, he has a 51 percent Approvals

https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2022/03/02/new-marquette-law-school-poll-finds-inflation-fears-up-pandemic-fears-down-marijuana-legalization-up-optimism-about-wisconsin-down-primary-candidates-not-yet-well-known/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

People are convinced Evers will lose because 2022 is looking like a red wave, Wisconsin is a swing state now that elects Republican governors handily (Thompson, Walker)

Wisconsin Democrats sat on their asses from 2006-2010 while the WIGOP was in the lab assembling a plan for power.

Lol Evers has a 51 percent Approvals, he won't lose

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's nothing new with the Forum WI is the tipping pt state and Rs just like with Scott Walker in 2018 thinks it's Safe R this is nothing new

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ron Johnson is gonna lose and cost Rs running for Gov for voting against KBJ everyone thinks Barnes isn't that good but Obama endorsed him for Lt Gov thats how he won

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The real primary is August 2nd not last Tuesday

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Every has a 50% Approvals it's gonna be very difficult for Rs to win this race