Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Gass3268]

I can only imagine what Protasiewicz's polling looks like for her to feel comfortable treating Kelly like a nobody.

https://twitter.com/WISN12News/status/1632815065190608897?s=20

I don't care what someones internal polling looks like declining a debate never makes one look good.

Looks like there will be one debate.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1632820770098274309?s=46&t=cnaSCfvIM...

[Duke of York]

I can only imagine what Protasiewicz's polling looks like for her to feel comfortable treating Kelly like a nobody.

https://twitter.com/WISN12News/status/1632815065190608897?s=20

I don't care what someones internal polling looks like declining a debate never makes one look good.

Looks like there will be one debate.

https://twitter.com/jrrosswrites/status/1632820770098274309?s=46&t=cnaSCfvIM...

Good.

WISC is the CBS affiliate for Madison. I wonder why she accepted their invite to debate but not WISN which is the ABC affiliate in Milwaukee.

4pm is also a weird time to air a debate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Aren't there also a couple of state constitutional amendments being voted on as well? Basically things the legislature Republicans wanted to pass but couldn't get over Evers' veto.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/mediumbuying/status/1632879617022255104?s=46&t=cnaSCfvIM...

https://twitter.com/mediumbuying/status/1632885741482016768?s=46&t=cnaSCfvIM...

[Landslide Lyndon]

WTF is going on here? Are Republicans throwing in the towel?
Where are the wealthy benefactors who helped him secure a slot in the run-off?

[Gass3268]

WTF is going on here? Are Republicans throwing in the towel?
Where are the wealthy benefactors who helped him secure a slot in the run-off?

Fair Courts America is the Uihleins, but there money is worth only a like 1/3rd of Protasiewicz's.

[MaxQue]

WTF is going on here? Are Republicans throwing in the towel?
Where are the wealthy benefactors who helped him secure a slot in the run-off?

They may be a bit demorialized by the results.

[Duke of York]

Why is Protasiewicz spending money in Minneapolis/st Paul along with Duluth?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Why is Protasiewicz spending money in Minneapolis/st Paul along with Duluth?

Media markets cross states lines, I assume.

[Stockdale for Veep]

Give Barnes a depressingly small fraction of this ad split and he wins.

[Gass3268]

Why is Protasiewicz spending money in Minneapolis/st Paul along with Duluth?

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Sucks to be a Florence county resident

[Gass3268]

Sucks to be a Florence county resident

There is really no reason for Florence County to exist. It's 0.07% of the population of the state with zero municipalities. I would merge Florence and Forrest in addition to Pepin and Buffalo.

[Gass3268]

The official primary results were released today. Liberals ended up leading the Conservatives by 7.85%. Based on those results, here is what a tied map would look like.

[Gass3268]

Another SuperPac coming in for Kelly.

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1633129417236180992?s=20

[wbrocks67]

The official primary results were released today. Liberals ended up leading the Conservatives by 7.85%. Based on those results, here is what a tied map would look like.

Remaining mail in ballots went to the GOP? Wasn't the day after 8.0%?

[Gass3268]

The official primary results were released today. Liberals ended up leading the Conservatives by 7.85%. Based on those results, here is what a tied map would look like.

Remaining mail in ballots went to the GOP? Wasn't the day after 8.0%?

I'm not sure, but the % I had prior to the offical numbers was liberals +7.77 and those came straight from all of the unofficial results on the different county pages.

[walleye26]

I had to proctor an ACT test today, and the ACT does not allow you to bring in any materials, electronic devices, or books. However, the room did have loose leaf paper, a calculator, and some pens, so I naturally created a SCOWIS election model for April 4th’s election. (5 hours is a long time to sit).

So, here’s what I got: I projected the election to feature 40% turnout (1.44 million votes, less than 2020’s SCOWIS race which turned out 1.542 million but more than 2019’s SCOWIS race of 1.21 million). I guesstimated turnout for each county as close to 40% as I could. Before the test administrators came to pick up electronics I wrote down the registered number of voters per county, which I would use to do the math.

I made some counties’ a bit above 40% and some below, based on educational level, historical turnout, and poverty rates (along with minority population). I pegged Dane County to turn out at 44% but Milwaukee only 36%, with Ozaukee at 48%, Washington 41, Waukesha 42, and Brown 39. The lowest turnout counties I projected were Menominee at 26, Ashland at 32, Sawyer, Rusk, Clark, and Price at 33, and Forest, Langlade, and Marquette at 34.

What I then did is estimate percentage vote totals for each candidate per county. I had Dane go to Janet 83-17, MKE go 64-36 (I assumed low black turnout) Waukesha 62-38 for Kelly, Ozaukee 55-45 Kelly, and Washington at 69-31 Kelly.

What I ultimately came up with was a Janet +3.8 win, with a majority of 55,000 votes. I intentionally tried to be just a hint bearish on Dem turnout, since historically minority turnout in these are pretty low; that’s why I had Ashland, Menominee, Bayfield, Sawyer, and MKE with lower turnout and more GOP leaning than you’d otherwise expect.

Obviously, trying to model a nonpartisan SCOWIS race is a fool’s errand for a number of reasons, but I had 5+ hours that I wasn’t allowed to do anything so I tried. If anybody has specific questions about counties or turnout, ask away. This was a nonscientific exercise, so I’m welcome to comments or debate.

[Yoda]

I had to proctor an ACT test today, and the ACT does not allow you to bring in any materials, electronic devices, or books. However, the room did have loose leaf paper, a calculator, and some pens, so I naturally created a SCOWIS election model for April 4th’s election. (5 hours is a long time to sit).

So, here’s what I got: I projected the election to feature 40% turnout (1.44 million votes, less than 2020’s SCOWIS race which turned out 1.542 million but more than 2019’s SCOWIS race of 1.21 million). I guesstimated turnout for each county as close to 40% as I could. Before the test administrators came to pick up electronics I wrote down the registered number of voters per county, which I would use to do the math.

I made some counties’ a bit above 40% and some below, based on educational level, historical turnout, and poverty rates (along with minority population). I pegged Dane County to turn out at 44% but Milwaukee only 36%, with Ozaukee at 48%, Washington 41, Waukesha 42, and Brown 39. The lowest turnout counties I projected were Menominee at 26, Ashland at 32, Sawyer, Rusk, Clark, and Price at 33, and Forest, Langlade, and Marquette at 34.

What I then did is estimate percentage vote totals for each candidate per county. I had Dane go to Janet 83-17, MKE go 64-36 (I assumed low black turnout) Waukesha 62-38 for Kelly, Ozaukee 55-45 Kelly, and Washington at 69-31 Kelly.

What I ultimately came up with was a Janet +3.8 win, with a majority of 55,000 votes. I intentionally tried to be just a hint bearish on Dem turnout, since historically minority turnout in these are pretty low; that’s why I had Ashland, Menominee, Bayfield, Sawyer, and MKE with lower turnout and more GOP leaning than you’d otherwise expect.

Obviously, trying to model a nonpartisan SCOWIS race is a fool’s errand for a number of reasons, but I had 5+ hours that I wasn’t allowed to do anything so I tried. If anybody has specific questions about counties or turnout, ask away. This was a nonscientific exercise, so I’m welcome to comments or debate.

This is the sh**t I joined Atlas to read. Top tier content. Can't wait to compare the results to your forecast walleye.

[walleye26]

Thank you!

My biggest excitement will be to see 1) does Milwaukee or Dane turn out at even higher rates? If MKE shows up at high rates, then this won’t even be close.

2) What happens in WOW? If Washington County is more like 65-35 and Waukesha is more like 57-43, stick a fork in the WisGOP.

3) BOW counties? It’s probably going to be interesting to see if Brown flips. I have it as 55-45 Kelly, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Janet won it on Election Day, if Kelly truly is despised by the suburbs. Green Bay’s suburbs in particular (De Pere, Bellevue, and Allouez) have shifted considerably left.

[Gass3268]

Thank you!

My biggest excitement will be to see 1) does Milwaukee or Dane turn out at even higher rates? If MKE shows up at high rates, then this won’t even be close.

2) What happens in WOW? If Washington County is more like 65-35 and Waukesha is more like 57-43, stick a fork in the WisGOP.

3) BOW counties? It’s probably going to be interesting to see if Brown flips. I have it as 55-45 Kelly, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Janet won it on Election Day, if Kelly truly is despised by the suburbs. Green Bay’s suburbs in particular (De Pere, Bellevue, and Allouez) have shifted considerably left.

Really good stuff with your election model. Looking at your questions:

1) One thing that does help liberals is even if minority turnout is poor in Milwaukee County, the strong shifts to the left in the suburbs (Wauwatosa, Whitefish Bay, Glendale, etc.) help alleviate some of those past issues you'd have in Milwaukee County. It wasn't long ago that a Democrat/Liberal candidate wouldn't break 60% in Milwaukee County in non-Presidential elections regularly.
2. I'm like 99.9% sure there won't be any exit polling in this race, but I really wish we could for this because I'd be fascinated to see what the percentage of Dorow's voters stay on the conservative side with Kelly and who jump over to Protasiewicz. This is going to be critical when looking in the margins in the WOW counties. Kelly even losing as much as 5-10% could be fatal to his campaign
3. Yeah, the BOW counties are always critical and Protasiewicz will need to make sure the margins stay respectable there.

I am currently woking on a spreadsheet where I figured out what the percentages would need need to be in every precinct in the state to result in a statewide tie based on universal swing from the primary. So when results come in on election night, I'll be able to see which candidate did better or worse in each precinct. It's not perfect as it does not account for changes in turnout, but I think it will help us all gain some knowledge of what is going on when the results come in.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/WisRight_Ls/status/1633524212022272017?s=20

Outside of this headline, the article is also pretty good. Sounds like some Republican operatives are not happy with Kelly focusing on "defending the Constitution," saying essentially that no one cares about something as abstract as the Wisconsin State Constitution, compared to Protasiewicz who is campaigning on concrete issues (abortion and democracy).

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

https://twitter.com/WisRight_Ls/status/1633524212022272017?s=20

Outside of this headline, the article is also pretty good. Sounds like some Republican operatives are not happy with Kelly focusing on "defending the Constitution," saying essentially that no one cares about the Wisconsin State Constitution, compared to Protasiewicz who is campaigning on concrete issues (abortion and democracy).

I’m shocked! I’m stunned! I’m astounded!

Are you meaning to tell me people don’t care about a document that can change as easily as the tides???

[MasterJedi]

So Wisconsin Republicans banned meningitis and chicken pox vaccine mandates. They want to kill kids and make sure people can have unnecessary shingles later in life. Great pro life stance.

[SnowLabrador]

So Wisconsin Republicans banned meningitis and chicken pox vaccine mandates. They want to kill kids and make sure people can have unnecessary shingles later in life. Great pro life stance.

Wait, it was signed? This country sucks, man.