Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[SnowLabrador]

This chaos is a preview of November nationwide.

[SnowLabrador]

This chaos in Wisconsin is a preview for nationwide in November.

[SnowLabrador]

Do y'all think she tops Baldwin? Dallet?

No. The current 6% margin will go down, but Kelly's still probably going to lose. No matter who wins, the fact remains that this election should not have happened when it did. 

[SnowLabrador]

It seems as though the GOP is coalescing around Kleefisch.

[SnowLabrador]

I think Evers loses by 3-5 points. A decisive number of people won't see the point in voting for him.

[SnowLabrador]

Surprised he wants Duffy to run; maybe he perceives Kleefisch as disloyal? Either way this is Lean/Likely R, Evers has nothing to run on.

[SnowLabrador]

Isn't Thompson like 80? I don't think he's going to run. Then again, age hasn't stopped certain people from running for higher offices than Governor of Wisconsin.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/rbarrettJS/status/1481601509259366404?s=20

How is this relevant to the 2022 elections?

[SnowLabrador]

How was Democratic turnout?

[SnowLabrador]

I doubt that holds until November, but I don't think Evers is going to lose by that much, and I feel quite confident in saying he'll come closer than Kelly, and won't do significantly worse than Whitmer.

If Evers loses Republicans are going to refuse to certify Democratic victories in the state in 2024.

I agree.

[SnowLabrador]

It won't matter electorally. This race is much more high-profile than the special election Robert Regan lost. You can't elect a Democratic dog-catcher this year, thanks to Sleepy Joe Biden not fighting.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/jessieopie/status/1544430351661076482

Do we think this development will help Kleefisch or Michels more? Either way Evers is the underdog, but it's still an important question.

[SnowLabrador]

Who do you guys think it'll be? Kleefisch or Michels?

[SnowLabrador]

Who do you guys think it'll be? Kleefisch or Michels?

Kleefisch only needs to keep a large lead in the Southeastern part of the state, like Vukmir over Nicholson in 2018, but Michels will probably sweep the rural areas, and he will probably cut into the Kleefisch base in the Milwaukee metro better than Nicholson, so I think Michels is the favorite.

Good, hopefully it's Michels. The general election polls probably are significantly underestimating Republicans, but it does appear that Michels is a weaker GE candidate than Kleefisch.

[SnowLabrador]

Not good news for Michelshttps://twitter.com/Robin_Vos_Stan/status/1549125459119669249

Not good news for Evers either. He cannot defeat Kleefisch.

[SnowLabrador]

Just cast my Senate primary vote by mail (duck you Republicans) for Godlewski.

As a Wisconsinite, who do you think will be the nominee at this point?

[SnowLabrador]

I could be completely wrong, but my hunch is that Michels needed bigger margins out of the first few counties and is underperforming his benchmarks right now. Gun to my head, Kleefisch will be the nominee.

[SnowLabrador]

Kleefisch is flopping around like a clay fish. She's tanking on PredictIt.

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/reidepstein/status/1557388901068808195

And so the pivot begins.

[SnowLabrador]

Tilt R -> Lean R.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm still convinced Michels will win. Evers has been slightly underwater for most of his term; granted, it's not really his fault that he hasn't accomplished anything, but it certainly doesn't help his approval ratings.

While we're on the subject of the Wisconsin governor's race, I think that had Scott Walker gotten 29,228 more votes in 2018, he could be Governor until the day he dies if he wanted to. Wisconsin's not getting any bluer.

[SnowLabrador]

https://www.jsonline.com/story/news/politics/2022/11/17/waukesha-parade-judge-jennifer-dorow-considers-state-supreme-court-run/69657568007/

She seems like the strongest conservative option.

Democrats should run Bruce Schroder from Ken OSHA.

Hell no, I'd rather lose than win with him. Besides, he's pretty old, isn't he?

[SnowLabrador]

Kelly will win. Mark my words.

[SnowLabrador]

I'm not a troll, just a pessimist. I say what I believe.

[SnowLabrador]

So Wisconsin Republicans banned meningitis and chicken pox vaccine mandates. They want to kill kids and make sure people can have unnecessary shingles later in life. Great pro life stance.

Wait, it was signed? This country sucks, man.