Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

With WOW and a few other Republican counties way more spent than Dane and Milwaukee Karofsky might have the edge.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Karofsky above 80 cents on PredictIt.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Also with the Racine County results, nothing from Racine proper must be in either.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Driftless area seems to be coming back too!

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Karofsky at 90 cents on PI.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Karofsky looking ahead at this point: the part of Dane in is just outlying areas. None of Madison yet. The rurals look weak for Kelly also. Possible the smaller cities are earlier reporting than outlying towns.

Karofsky tied in Outagamie is concerning for Kelly, as are a number of things.

Or Kelly winning Marathon by only 3 points with 100% in.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Karofsky up in Outgamie with over 40% reporting. Probably won't hold but...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Karofsky looking ahead at this point: the part of Dane in is just outlying areas. None of Madison yet. The rurals look weak for Kelly also. Possible the smaller cities are earlier reporting than outlying towns.

Karofsky tied in Outagamie is concerning for Kelly, as are a number of things.

Or Kelly winning Marathon by only 3 points with 100% in.

I'm not seeing where it's 100% in. The Marathon County Clerk's office still is at 94%. But either way it looks bad for Kelly. He should be netting 5.3k votes there, not 2.2k.

https://www.co.marathon.wi.us/Departments/CountyClerk/Elections/Results.aspx

Apparently DDHQ is reporting wrong. But still, not good for Kelly.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Karofsky is outperforming BALDWIN in Ozaukee...

Same in rural, Obama/Trump Vernon (outperforming Obama infact!) with half in.

Kelly's numbers are pretty anemic across the board really.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

*Robin Williams at the end of Dead Poets Society meme*
Thank you Bernie. Thank you.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

DDHQ calls it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a woman in Madison who voted Tuesday after not receiving her absentee ballot.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1249857416885342210

Why are the Ds losing the county that has Stevens Point in it?

I don't think Stevens Point proper is in yet.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow Karofsky won Brown County (Green Bay).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

What happened in Rock County that made it look bad for Karofsky earlier this evening?

I'll guess Janesville reported last.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Interestingly this makes the Wisconsin Supreme Court 6-1 female meaning if Neuberger had won it'd now have an all female Supreme Court.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow Karofsky won Brown County (Green Bay).

Outgamie too. She won all the main counties of the Fox River Valley.

Hahahah, wow. Blowout.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Karofsky seems to be running about 65k votes behind votes in the Democratic primary. Unfortunately I can't seem to find the results on how many votes Trump got in his (meaningless) unopposed race for comparison but I'm curious about the undervote. I imagine the discrepancy is actually more due to Kelly voters voting in the D primary as the only real race on the primary ballot than voters falling off and not voting though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Karofsky seems to be running about 65k votes behind votes in the Democratic primary. Unfortunately I can't seem to find the results on how many votes Trump got in his (meaningless) unopposed race for comparison but I'm curious about the undervote. I imagine the discrepancy is actually more due to Kelly voters voting in the D primary as the only real race on the primary ballot than voters falling off and not voting though.

Considering Biden absolutely crushed in WOW and it had one of the most significant dropoffs SC race to primary, I wonder if there were Kelly supporters who are also backing Biden?

That wouldn't surprise me. Imagine a right-leaning "independent" who isn't really thrilled with Trump and doesn't want to vote for him in a uncontested primary, so they vote for the more moderate Democrat, not shocking at all.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Even in 2008 Obama was only able to win Racine by 7 points when he won by almost twice that statewide. It's a pretty polarized county prone to turnout fluctuations. Possibly one of the few places where the GOP voter suppression scheme worked.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This is tomorrow. Might be fun to watch.

The election is officially nonpartisan and is actually on paper a D vs. D runoff, both candidates Deborah Kerr and Jill Underly are self-described Democrats who endorsed Biden. However Kerry is backed by lots of right-wing interests, supports vouchers and charter schools, and received a fairly notable endorsement in February:

https://twitter.com/ScottWalker/status/1361747440865574913

Jill Underly meanwhile is backed by most liberal activist groups, teachers' unions, all Democrats in Wisconsin's Congressional delegation and almost all Democrats in the Wisconsin State Legislature. So this might end up being a partisan election in terms of results.

Underly btw is actually superintendent of a rural school district in southwestern Wisconsin, while Kerr is of a school district in suburban Milwaukee (but not WOW. An inner ring Milwaukee County D-voting area.) So an interesting reversal of roles.

Anyway let's watch the results.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kerr only leads in Brown County by 4 points with only one precinct from Green Bay in...if these patterns hold she's not going to get the margins she needs.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Kerr leading 56-44 in Waupaca County...which only has the town of Caledonia in now. Trump won that town by over 40 points. So...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Man, what is up with wisconsin voting in these "nonpartisan" (but partisan) races? edu chief, court justice, etc.

The state voted for like 13 points for the liberal justice and only a few months later, trump loses the state by half a point.

Huge differences in turnout numbers.