Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[mileslunn]

Polls like the Leger one could be advantageous for the Liberals. The closer voters perceive the race to be, the more ABC voting happens.

Absolutely and may help the Tories in Prairies too although much overall in sense that those further to right if Liberals have big lead may feel more comfortable voting PPC or Maverick party knowing Liberals are going to win anyways.  Whereas if close those supporting PPC and Maverick party likely come over to Tories to stop a Liberal win.  Obviously that has less impact than strategic voting on left, but there is that.  PPC was polling much higher than 1.6% it got and I think only because close a lot at last minute switched to Conservatives whereas if lead of either was more solid, PPC probably would have gotten closer to 4% mark.  And with O'Toole being more moderate, that could be even more devastating as if Tories stay where they are, I think you might see more further right feel its okay to vote Maverick or PPC thus pushing Tories into low 20s (combined right still 28-30%).

[Hatman 🍁]

Re: Lanark, very integrated with Ottawa - 37% of Lanark workforce works in Ottawa.  But still very right-wing.  Not sure if anyone calculated 2019 results by county but Lanark generally sees the Conservatives at over 50%.

True and you see a few others like that.  Wellingotn-Halton Hills, York-Simcoe and Niagara West are all easily within commuting distance of major urban centre yet some of the most reliably conservative ridings.  But always question of how long that holds up.  Flamborough-Glanbrook (not old riding of Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborugh-Glanbrook) but current riding went solidly Tory and was quite safe for them, but now way more competitive.

At same time population density for Lanark County is much lower than most exurbs.  O'Toole and Polievre's riding both have population densities over 100 people per square km while Lanark county is only around 25 people per square km.  For country comparisons, Durham and Carleton similar population densities to France, Lanark County is more akin to Sweden in population density.  Or if using US states, Durham and Carleton similar to Pennsylvania, Lanark county more like Iowa.  After 2019, there was a chart on results by population density and did show a pretty strong correlation there.

I would put Poilievre's riding as 1/3 exurban (Greely, Manotick, Richmond), 1/3 suburban (Stittsville, Riverside South, Findlay Creek) and 1/3 rural (Osgoode, Rideau, Goulbourn).

O'Toole's a good mix of all three as well, as I wouldn't call Oshawa an exurb. 

Lanark is mostly exurban (and 0% suburban), but has a large rural population as well, which reduces its density.

But anyway, as you can see, exurbs still vote Tory.

[DC Al Fine]

Polls like the Leger one could be advantageous for the Liberals. The closer voters perceive the race to be, the more ABC voting happens.

Absolutely and may help the Tories in Prairies too although much overall in sense that those further to right if Liberals have big lead may feel more comfortable voting PPC or Maverick party knowing Liberals are going to win anyways.  Whereas if close those supporting PPC and Maverick party likely come over to Tories to stop a Liberal win.  Obviously that has less impact than strategic voting on left, but there is that.  PPC was polling much higher than 1.6% it got and I think only because close a lot at last minute switched to Conservatives whereas if lead of either was more solid, PPC probably would have gotten closer to 4% mark.  And with O'Toole being more moderate, that could be even more devastating as if Tories stay where they are, I think you might see more further right feel its okay to vote Maverick or PPC thus pushing Tories into low 20s (combined right still 28-30%).

Side note: I wish pollsters would prompt for Maverick out west. If Western seperatists can poll 20% provincially in Alberta, we should probably be asking about them federally too.

[mileslunn]

Polls like the Leger one could be advantageous for the Liberals. The closer voters perceive the race to be, the more ABC voting happens.

Absolutely and may help the Tories in Prairies too although much overall in sense that those further to right if Liberals have big lead may feel more comfortable voting PPC or Maverick party knowing Liberals are going to win anyways.  Whereas if close those supporting PPC and Maverick party likely come over to Tories to stop a Liberal win.  Obviously that has less impact than strategic voting on left, but there is that.  PPC was polling much higher than 1.6% it got and I think only because close a lot at last minute switched to Conservatives whereas if lead of either was more solid, PPC probably would have gotten closer to 4% mark.  And with O'Toole being more moderate, that could be even more devastating as if Tories stay where they are, I think you might see more further right feel its okay to vote Maverick or PPC thus pushing Tories into low 20s (combined right still 28-30%).

Side note: I wish pollsters would prompt for Maverick out west. If Western seperatists can poll 20% provincially in Alberta, we should probably be asking about them federally too.

Absolutely although I think a lot in Alberta were more your anti-lockdown types.  Had Kenney taken approach DeSantis and Abbott did in US, I suspect they would be around 5%.  Off course with hospitals probably collapsing leading to triage, deaths spiraling out of control, I suspect that might push even more moderates to NDP or perhaps hand a lifeline to Alberta Party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Polls like the Leger one could be advantageous for the Liberals. The closer voters perceive the race to be, the more ABC voting happens.

Absolutely and may help the Tories in Prairies too although much overall in sense that those further to right if Liberals have big lead may feel more comfortable voting PPC or Maverick party knowing Liberals are going to win anyways.  Whereas if close those supporting PPC and Maverick party likely come over to Tories to stop a Liberal win.  Obviously that has less impact than strategic voting on left, but there is that.  PPC was polling much higher than 1.6% it got and I think only because close a lot at last minute switched to Conservatives whereas if lead of either was more solid, PPC probably would have gotten closer to 4% mark.  And with O'Toole being more moderate, that could be even more devastating as if Tories stay where they are, I think you might see more further right feel its okay to vote Maverick or PPC thus pushing Tories into low 20s (combined right still 28-30%).

Side note: I wish pollsters would prompt for Maverick out west. If Western seperatists can poll 20% provincially in Alberta, we should probably be asking about them federally too.

I think we tried that in a poll, and they weren't getting much traction. Probably low brand recognition at this point.

[beesley]

Polls like the Leger one could be advantageous for the Liberals. The closer voters perceive the race to be, the more ABC voting happens.

Absolutely and may help the Tories in Prairies too although much overall in sense that those further to right if Liberals have big lead may feel more comfortable voting PPC or Maverick party knowing Liberals are going to win anyways.  Whereas if close those supporting PPC and Maverick party likely come over to Tories to stop a Liberal win.  Obviously that has less impact than strategic voting on left, but there is that.  PPC was polling much higher than 1.6% it got and I think only because close a lot at last minute switched to Conservatives whereas if lead of either was more solid, PPC probably would have gotten closer to 4% mark.  And with O'Toole being more moderate, that could be even more devastating as if Tories stay where they are, I think you might see more further right feel its okay to vote Maverick or PPC thus pushing Tories into low 20s (combined right still 28-30%).

Side note: I wish pollsters would prompt for Maverick out west. If Western seperatists can poll 20% provincially in Alberta, we should probably be asking about them federally too.

I think we tried that in a poll, and they weren't getting much traction. Probably low brand recognition at this point.

Is it EKOS you work for? I forget.

[WindowPhil]

I've heard people say that "Pretty much all Canadians are atheist in practice. The only Christians in Canada are Lapsed Catholics or members of the United Church of Canada, a denomination that allows priests to be Atheists and isn't against Abortion, LGBT issues or anything progressive".

However, I looked into it and I discovered that there are in fact evangelicals in Canada.

10-15% of Canadians are evangelical christians, with the source elaborating that "Nearly all are strongly conservative on issues of reproduction and sexuality". With the further caveat that "their broader political views vary considerably" and going on about how very, very few are against the idea of imposing a theocracy, etc.

However, I think this part is important as well, Access to power also differs in the two countries. The Canadian parliamentary system concentrates power top-down in government and party leaders (giving them more power over the backbench). Whereas the more bottom-up American system gives greater openings for legislators to pursue independent agendas.

Another person did a study on conservative churches less than 100KM from each other (in Buffalo, NY and in Hamilton, ON). This was the conclusion:

To summarize, Americans evangelicals see everything as tied to national identity and a struggle for the nation’s soul. The "Us" who need to destroy the "Them", and if you aren't with them, you're part of the "them". Whereas the Canadian evangelicals saw themselves as already outside the national mainstream and as a “cultural minority within a multicultural nation.” and largely accepted that they were a minority and engaged society on that basis, rather than seeing a mighty struggle to reclaim the national soul against liberal perfidy and defeating "those people".

So in summary:

* Canada has half as many evangelicals per capita as America does (10-15% vs 25.4% in the United States).

* Stronger party discipline means that the establishment has greater power to "weed out the crazies".

* There's not really a bible belt in Canada where Evangelicals are heavily concentrated and that they can utilize for electoral influence. Rather they're less concentrated.

* Canadian Evangelicals have traditionally tended to view themselves as a religious minority put on earth to help people, whereas American Evangelicals have traditionally tended to view themselves as warriors who need to crush the evil poor, liberals, and secular left. (although I would say this is changing in the U.S as the message of the religious right is more about "Religious Freedom" and seeing themselves as a minority that deserves protection nowadays than "ban Harry Potter").


Is my analysis correct? Is culture a larger factor in this kind of thing than religious demographics are? And are some Canadian households the "crazy Christian type" that I thought didn't exist in Canada?

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/Puglaas/status/1413128438592933898

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://twitter.com/Puglaas/status/1413128438592933898

Another riding in the Liberal column

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/Puglaas/status/1413128438592933898

Did the electors of Granville finally smelled the coffee and realised she was one of the most incompetent and overpromoted politician in Canada?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://twitter.com/Puglaas/status/1413128438592933898

Did the electors of Granville finally smelled the coffee and realised she was one of the most incompetent and overpromoted politician in Canada?

And she was widely considered one of, if not the most incompetent minister during Trudeau's first term. But yall aren't ready for that conversation because SNC woman good

[Estrella]

Nothing especially important, but I'm sure regulars in this thread know this guy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1412480864597032971

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/Puglaas/status/1413128438592933898

Did the electors of Granville finally smelled the coffee and realised she was one of the most incompetent and overpromoted politician in Canada?

And she was widely considered one of, if not the most incompetent minister during Trudeau's first term. But yall aren't ready for that conversation because SNC woman good

more like native woman good.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://twitter.com/Puglaas/status/1413128438592933898

Did the electors of Granville finally smelled the coffee and realised she was one of the most incompetent and overpromoted politician in Canada?

And she was widely considered one of, if not the most incompetent minister during Trudeau's first term. But yall aren't ready for that conversation because SNC woman good

more like native woman good.

Ehh a little bit of both, she wasn't a particularly revered figure before the SNC-Lavalin scandal happened

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/Puglaas/status/1413128438592933898

Did the electors of Granville finally smelled the coffee and realised she was one of the most incompetent and overpromoted politician in Canada?

And she was widely considered one of, if not the most incompetent minister during Trudeau's first term. But yall aren't ready for that conversation because SNC woman good

I don't agree with that. She had a mixed track record.  The biggest criticism of her from a liberal perspective was frequently that she was too conservative.

[mileslunn]

Saw this https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-tories-across-the-nation-confident-prepared-for-battle-in-upcoming-election .  I suspect privately a lot of Tories probably very nervous.  Most just won't say it as when in trouble you don't want to make it worse.  So coming out and saying, yeah our poll numbers are terrible and we expect to lose 40 seats is a good way to de-motivate your supporters and ensure you do even worse.  Parties always even if internals bad put on a brave face.

That being said, O'Toole's #s are not much different than Harper's in the summer of 2005 so parties have come back from this big a deficit.  But there are some strong differences.  Liberals had been in power for 12 years in 2005 so party was close to normal shelf life whereas now only 6 years and unless parties mess up really badly, they don't tend to get turfed that soon.  Likewise you had adscam whereas nothing like that now.  So 2005 shows in theory its possible to come back from double digit deficit, but I think circumstances now are much less favourable to Tories than in 2005.  Mind you that summer, I was convinced Harper would never become PM so my predictions haven't always been right.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Residential schools trutherism/denialism is setting in on the Christian far right, probably surprising nobody. I'm not going to link to it but there's a pretty wet and wild American Conservative piece explicitly arguing that the mass graves are good, actually (as in it uses the phrase "good, actually").

[Hatman 🍁]

Polls like the Leger one could be advantageous for the Liberals. The closer voters perceive the race to be, the more ABC voting happens.

Absolutely and may help the Tories in Prairies too although much overall in sense that those further to right if Liberals have big lead may feel more comfortable voting PPC or Maverick party knowing Liberals are going to win anyways.  Whereas if close those supporting PPC and Maverick party likely come over to Tories to stop a Liberal win.  Obviously that has less impact than strategic voting on left, but there is that.  PPC was polling much higher than 1.6% it got and I think only because close a lot at last minute switched to Conservatives whereas if lead of either was more solid, PPC probably would have gotten closer to 4% mark.  And with O'Toole being more moderate, that could be even more devastating as if Tories stay where they are, I think you might see more further right feel its okay to vote Maverick or PPC thus pushing Tories into low 20s (combined right still 28-30%).

Side note: I wish pollsters would prompt for Maverick out west. If Western seperatists can poll 20% provincially in Alberta, we should probably be asking about them federally too.

I think we tried that in a poll, and they weren't getting much traction. Probably low brand recognition at this point.

Is it EKOS you work for? I forget.

yes

[Hatman 🍁]

Nothing especially important, but I'm sure regulars in this thread know this guy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1412480864597032971

Super cool that he's running, and running for the good guys too!

Anyone else buy his Alberta map?

[DC Al Fine]

Residential schools trutherism/denialism is setting in on the Christian far right, probably surprising nobody. I'm not going to link to it but there's a pretty wed and wild American Conservative piece explicitly arguing that the mass graves are good, actually (as in it uses the phrase "good, actually").

Gave that a read. Quite disturbing. Was amazed at the chutzpah.

[mileslunn]

Nothing especially important, but I'm sure regulars in this thread know this guy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1412480864597032971

Super cool that he's running, and running for the good guys too!

Anyone else buy his Alberta map?

Didn't Tories get over 80% here last time?  I suspect this is one of the safest Tory ridings in whole country.  In Saskatchewan, I think Saskatoon West and Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only ridings I could see NDP flipping. 

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Residential schools trutherism/denialism is setting in on the Christian far right, probably surprising nobody. I'm not going to link to it but there's a pretty wed and wild American Conservative piece explicitly arguing that the mass graves are good, actually (as in it uses the phrase "good, actually").

Endorsed by Adrian Vermeule, no surprise.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Nothing especially important, but I'm sure regulars in this thread know this guy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1412480864597032971

Super cool that he's running, and running for the good guys too!

Anyone else buy his Alberta map?

Didn't Tories get over 80% here last time?  I suspect this is one of the safest Tory ridings in whole country.  In Saskatchewan, I think Saskatoon West and Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only ridings I could see NDP flipping. 

It's a paper candidacy, NDP got only 9.5% there last time

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Nothing especially important, but I'm sure regulars in this thread know this guy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1412480864597032971

Super cool that he's running, and running for the good guys too!

Anyone else buy his Alberta map?

Never underestimate the power of cartography to swing a district.

Didn't Tories get over 80% here last time?  I suspect this is one of the safest Tory ridings in whole country.  In Saskatchewan, I think Saskatoon West and Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only ridings I could see NDP flipping.  

It's a paper candidacy, NDP got only 9.5% there last time

Don't underestimate the power of cartogrpahy to swing a district

[Hatman 🍁]

Nothing especially important, but I'm sure regulars in this thread know this guy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1412480864597032971

Super cool that he's running, and running for the good guys too!

Anyone else buy his Alberta map?

Didn't Tories get over 80% here last time?  I suspect this is one of the safest Tory ridings in whole country.  In Saskatchewan, I think Saskatoon West and Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only ridings I could see NDP flipping. 

No one is under the illusion he will win. It's just nice to see him put his name on the ballot.

Nothing especially important, but I'm sure regulars in this thread know this guy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1412480864597032971

Super cool that he's running, and running for the good guys too!

Anyone else buy his Alberta map?

Never underestimate the power of cartography to swing a district.

Didn't Tories get over 80% here last time?  I suspect this is one of the safest Tory ridings in whole country.  In Saskatchewan, I think Saskatoon West and Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only ridings I could see NDP flipping. 

It's a paper candidacy, NDP got only 9.5% there last time

It's only a paper candidacy if you don't campaign, and he has already been door knocking.