Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Hatman 🍁]

Are the Clarks even Conservative anymore?

[Hatman 🍁]

Are the Clarks even Conservative anymore?

Joe definitely isn't. Besides, being a Clark is a huge negative for a Tory hopeful. Mulroney, for all his issues, won two majorities, had some right wing policy achievements, and backed the merger. Clark mishandled a minority, somehow managed to let a damaged Trudeau Sr win a 4th term and then pissed away whatever remaining goodwill he had during his 2nd leadership by holding up and attacking the Alliance-PC merger.

Even the Reds (of which I am sort of part of) dislike him. Honestly the only people that seem to like Joe Clark are in other parties. Not a great recipe for his kid winning leadership (if she's even a Tory).

This is true. I kind of like him myself. I wonder if he's voted NDP in the last 15 years? There are some Tories from back then who have (like Flora Macdonald).

[Hatman 🍁]

Excuse my ignorance, but what is "People's"?

Far right/libertarian vehicle of failed Tory leadership candidate Maxime Bernier.

[Hatman 🍁]

A moribund party that ran 10 candidates last election is in third place? OK...

We're polling BC right now too, and have similar numbers, except we didn't include the Conservatives. But "other" is quite high.

[Hatman 🍁]

A moribund party that ran 10 candidates last election is in third place? OK...

We're polling BC right now too, and have similar numbers, except we didn't include the Conservatives. But "other" is quite high.

When/If you poll Alberta, will you poll the Alberta Liberals? They are above 5% in the May Polls and 14% during a June 1st poll.

Who is the typical BC Conservative voter in the Next election?

I would poll just the NDP, UCP and Alberta Party.

I doubt the Conservatives will get very many votes at all. The one's who say they will will mostly just vote Liberal or stay home. I guess they're too low information to realize the Conservatives are basically dead or they don't want to admit to supporting a party with that name.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are our #s. Very similar to the Insights poll, except swap the Conservatives with Other.

https://twitter.com/EarlWashburn/status/1284216656580009987

[Hatman 🍁]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Polling Canada has some polls out, what do you think of the polls, the Alberta one is trash.

All of the provincial Innovative Research polls that just came out are trash. Very small sample sizes, weird numbers.

[Hatman 🍁]

Damn, mine is the only Russian one. I was certain Italians were the biggest ethnic group.

Thornhill? I'm surprised it's not Jewish. But then again, most of those Russians are Jews.

Anyway, did you make this map? It's missing the obvious caveat that this is the largest ethnicity after "Canadian". 

[Hatman 🍁]

RIP https://twitter.com/DuaneBratt/status/1307375189601050624

I don't mean for this to sound at all callous, but it's really amazing that Canada hadn't seen a former PM pass away since 2000: 20 years ago! With the recent news of Chretien's wife passing away too, it feels like the near future will see Canada lose quite a few historic policy-makers, & that's really unfortunate.

RIP, Prime Minister.

And before that, it had been 21 years since Diefenbaker died. So, just 2 deaths in 41 years.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ashton's trip to see her dying grandmother seems a lot more warranted than all of the Tories getting caught travelling to the tropics. And the response to her was far more heavy handed than the rest. I suppose I can't argue with the response, though.

So, I'm not the biggest fan of Ashton's, but a lot of people are glad she was stripped of her roles for being too far left. I wonder if they hold the same criticisms for some of the new MPs like Leah Gazan or Matthew Green?

[Hatman 🍁]

Two Liberal backbenchers have been stripped of their caucus duties as a result of travelling to the United States.

Ashton's trip to see her dying grandmother seems a lot more warranted than all of the Tories getting caught travelling to the tropics.

Agreed. That said, plenty of normal people weren't able to see their dying grandmothers in the same city over the past several months, so it would still be an awful look if she kept her job...

So, I'm not the biggest fan of Ashton's, but a lot of people are glad she was stripped of her roles for being too far left. I wonder if they hold the same criticisms for some of the new MPs like Leah Gazan or Matthew Green?

Honestly, they should have fired her over that CCP apologetics farce before this even came out. I think parties should have pretty broad tents, but appearing in propaganda for a government that is currently holding your citizens hostage?! *Cringe*

Can you fill me on on Gazan and Green?

I have no criticisms of Gazan or Green, they seem to be doing a good job. But they are on the left of the party, so I imagine some people have an issue with them.

[Hatman 🍁]

An amazing mode effect for NDP numbers between pollsters. IVR polls have them at ~15% and online polls have them at ~20%.  I suppose people who do surveys are more politically engaged, whereas those who don't pay much attention might do a robopoll, and just default to Liberal/Tory.

[Hatman 🍁]

Lisa Roberts, NDP MLA for Halifax Needham announced she will be seeking the federal NDP nomination in Halifax.

Does she have a chance? How popular is Fillmore?

[Hatman 🍁]

I disagree. She has a lot more time to build up a proper campaign there, and get her known to voters. If you recall, everyone thought she was going to be a distant third (or fourth!) in the by-election. Don't underestimate her.

I've said this a million times, but Toronto Centre is a "promiscuous progressive" riding disguised as a Liberal riding. It's almost always gone Liberal, the voters there don't know any better. And the Liberals almost always run a strong candidates, including in the by-election. But voters there have a choice now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Poll by polls from Toronto Centre for selected areas.

Church-Wellesley (Gay Village)

Liberals  1,987  42%
Greens  1,396  30%
NDP  954  20%

St. James Town

Liberals  1,042  59%
NDP  278  16%
Greens  260  15%

Cabbagetown

Greens  891  55%
Liberals  505  31%
NDP  159  10%

I'm surprised no one has mapped this yet. The Greens can make some inroads into the Gay Village, I think. Would be interesting to see what the turnout swings are. If it went down more in St. Jamestown than the rest of the riding, this is good news for the Liberals, as they can count on these voters coming back into the fold.

[Hatman 🍁]

It may have - while somewhat imperfect I have around 1,800 votes cast in St. James Town and 1,600 in Cabbagetown.  

This actually inspired me to make some maps yesterday (not exactly the right thread for these, but whatevs)

[Hatman 🍁]

We've known about Cheryl Gallant's kookiness for decades now. Nothing new. I know die hard conservatives in her riding who won't even vote for her due to her views. Doesn't stop her from winning easily each time, though it does cost her 10-20% of the vote (compare her pv share with the less controversial John Yakabuski who holds the seat provincially)

[Hatman 🍁]

Re: Toronto Centre, another problem facing Annamie Paul is that the NDP is a bit "bullish" on Toronto Centre, making any sort of unite the left of the Liberal vote difficult.  In both the most recent federal an  provincial elections and it was their best riding outside the "big three" (Danforth, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park).  It's arguably the most left of the three downtown seats.

The NDP vote will surely be cannibalized in Toronto Centre  next election. Best to focus efforts on Davenport and PHP.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP vote will surely be cannibalized in Toronto Centre  next election. Best to focus efforts on Davenport and PHP.

And Danforth, no?

Just regaining the traditional strongholds will be a victory of sorts.  The challenge gets imminently harder than that in the next tier seats of University-Rosedale (esp with Chrystia Freeland there), Toronto Centre and Beaches-East York.

For sure. For some reason, I thought PHP was closer than Danforth in 2019, but I was wrong. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Yukon polling is generally dubious, and I'm surprised undecideds are only at 14%. Also surprised they were able to do a survey of 600 people in the territory.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP vote will surely be cannibalized in Toronto Centre  next election. Best to focus efforts on Davenport and PHP.

And Danforth, no?

Just regaining the traditional strongholds will be a victory of sorts.  The challenge gets imminently harder than that in the next tier seats of University-Rosedale (esp with Chrystia Freeland there), Toronto Centre and Beaches-East York.

There's a reason why Rosario Marchese etc. all lost, no. It's not just the NDP didn't perform well in 2019, the area is becoming more Liberal. I'd be surprised if they won any of them federally at current polling, though provincially I think the PHP, Danforth and Davenport are still fairly safe given the Liberal numbers there.

An NDP win in Davenport should not be a surprise - the NDP will be throwing everything at the riding in order to make up the 2500 votes it lost by.

A bit dubious to say downtown Toronto is trending Liberal. Perhaps it is, as it's becoming more expensive to live there. But, it's not the first time the NDP has been shutout for 2 elections straight in the region. In fact, they didn't win a single seat in Toronto between 1993 and 2000. And they only won a seat in 2004 because Jack himself was running in one, and he barely won it at that.

Marchese et al lost in 2014 because the party fractured as it pivoted to win over blue collar voters rather than focus on their progressive base. Meanwhile, the Liberals ran their most left wing provincial campaign in history. Trudeau has also run to the left of past Liberal campaigns too, so no wonder he was able keep those seats. It's not a given that he will continue to do so though, as progressives may begin growing weary of his fake wokeism.

[Hatman 🍁]

Something I have just found out that sounds absolutely ridiculous, like something Kafka would come up with, but it's actually true: throughout history, Canada has had 55 Superintendents-General of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Crown-Indigenous Relations or some variations thereof. Of these fifty-five ministers, a grand total of zero (0) were actually Indigenous.

I've often wondered why this is too; it seems so absurd to not be intentional. My best guess is that no government has wanted to seem like it was favouring one Indigenous group over another.

[Hatman 🍁]

Something I have just found out that sounds absolutely ridiculous, like something Kafka would come up with, but it's actually true: throughout history, Canada has had 55 Superintendents-General of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Crown-Indigenous Relations or some variations thereof. Of these fifty-five ministers, a grand total of zero (0) were actually Indigenous.

I've often wondered why this is too; it seems so absurd to not be intentional. My best guess is that no government has wanted to seem like it was favouring one Indigenous group over another.

I know that Jody Wilson-Raybould was offered Minister of Indigenous Services (I know that's different from Minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations) but declined because she didn't want to enforce provisions of the Indian Act. Obviously the bit about favouring different Indigenous groups doesn't apply to the same degree with the Indigenous Services role.

This is a good point, and more likely the true reason. No self respecting indigenous MP would want to seem like an "uncle Tom" by running the ministry.

[Hatman 🍁]

In terms of the Indigenous vote, the poll-level results rarely reflect what we see in polling, which tells me that there is a stark difference between people who may identify as Indigenous due to having some Indigenous ancestry (but are mostly White, but will identify as Indigenous in a survey) and those living on reserve or in Indigenous communities/ghettos (for lack of a better term, but talking about urban Indigenous populations like in Winnipeg Centre) who are less likely to answer surveys, but we know vote NDP or Liberal from poll maps. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Southeast Asian: Mostly Vietnamese here and probably mostly Liberal but some NDP and Tories too.  They don't go as heavily Tory as they do GOP in US nor as much as they go L/NP in Australia.  In Australia I believe Vietnamese go heavily L/NP while in US usually GOP, although Obama in 2012 (not 2008) and Clinton in 2016 did win here, but flipped back to Trump 2020.

I've mentioned this before, but the Vietnamese population in Ottawa (used to) vote heavily NDP - at least the one's in Ottawa Centre. Paul Dewar's mother was responsible for bringing over a lot of Vietnamese refugees when she was mayor, so they voted for him en masse out of loyalty. Walking through Chinatown during an election, you would see Paul Dewar signs in every Vietnamese restaurant window.