Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Old thread: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=221420.0

[JoeyOCanada]

Andrew Scheer is texting people in the Atlantic provinces saying that gas prices are going up and to fill their tanks lolol

[LabourJersey]

Andrew Scheer is texting people in the Atlantic provinces saying that gas prices are going up and to fill their tanks lolol

Why are the Tories sending texts out in the Maritimes? I was under the impression that it's mostly a Liberal region. Are the Tories that confident?

[MillennialModerate]

Andrew Scheer is texting people in the Atlantic provinces saying that gas prices are going up and to fill their tanks lolol

Why are the Tories sending texts out in the Maritimes? I was under the impression that it's mostly a Liberal region. Are the Tories that confident?

Recent polls have them down just a few points in Atlantic Canada.

If that turns out to be the case then it’s a Conservative landslide

[JoeyOCanada]

Andrew Scheer is texting people in the Atlantic provinces saying that gas prices are going up and to fill their tanks lolol

Why are the Tories sending texts out in the Maritimes? I was under the impression that it's mostly a Liberal region. Are the Tories that confident?

The Liberals are hemorrhaging support in the Maritimes lately

[DC Al Fine]

Andrew Scheer is texting people in the Atlantic provinces saying that gas prices are going up and to fill their tanks lolol

Why are the Tories sending texts out in the Maritimes? I was under the impression that it's mostly a Liberal region. Are the Tories that confident?

The Liberals are hemorrhaging support in the Maritimes lately

To add to what Joey said, there is something of a tradition in the Maritimes of swinging hard against a government after it wins its first majority. E.g. the federal elections of 1997 and 2015.

[LabourJersey]

Andrew Scheer is texting people in the Atlantic provinces saying that gas prices are going up and to fill their tanks lolol

Why are the Tories sending texts out in the Maritimes? I was under the impression that it's mostly a Liberal region. Are the Tories that confident?

The Liberals are hemorrhaging support in the Maritimes lately

To add to what Joey said, there is something of a tradition in the Maritimes of swinging hard against a government after it wins its first majority. E.g. the federal elections of 1997 and 2015.

Interesting, thanks for info.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Andrew Scheer is texting people in the Atlantic provinces saying that gas prices are going up and to fill their tanks lolol

Why are the Tories sending texts out in the Maritimes? I was under the impression that it's mostly a Liberal region. Are the Tories that confident?

The Liberals are hemorrhaging support in the Maritimes lately

To add to what Joey said, there is something of a tradition in the Maritimes of swinging hard against a government after it wins its first majority. E.g. the federal elections of 1997 and 2015.

1997 was weird, as the Liberals collapsed in the Maritimes, but held on nationally. The Maritimes were enraged at Harper for his EI reforms. Did the Liberals enact EI reforms before the 1997 election?

[136or142]

Andrew Scheer is texting people in the Atlantic provinces saying that gas prices are going up and to fill their tanks lolol

Why are the Tories sending texts out in the Maritimes? I was under the impression that it's mostly a Liberal region. Are the Tories that confident?

The Liberals are hemorrhaging support in the Maritimes lately

To add to what Joey said, there is something of a tradition in the Maritimes of swinging hard against a government after it wins its first majority. E.g. the federal elections of 1997 and 2015.

1997 was weird, as the Liberals collapsed in the Maritimes, but held on nationally. The Maritimes were enraged at Harper for his EI reforms. Did the Liberals enact EI reforms before the 1997 election?

Yes, look into the Liberal cabinet minister Lloyd Axworthy.

[DC Al Fine]

Andrew Scheer is texting people in the Atlantic provinces saying that gas prices are going up and to fill their tanks lolol

Why are the Tories sending texts out in the Maritimes? I was under the impression that it's mostly a Liberal region. Are the Tories that confident?

The Liberals are hemorrhaging support in the Maritimes lately

To add to what Joey said, there is something of a tradition in the Maritimes of swinging hard against a government after it wins its first majority. E.g. the federal elections of 1997 and 2015.

1997 was weird, as the Liberals collapsed in the Maritimes, but held on nationally. The Maritimes were enraged at Harper for his EI reforms. Did the Liberals enact EI reforms before the 1997 election?

Yes, look into the Liberal cabinet minister Lloyd Axworthy.

Yup. Won 31/32 Maritime seats in '93, and lost 21 of them in 1997, including all 11 in Nova Scotia, which they swept the election before.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So is it just me, or does Trudeau seem to completely have lost his grip in the latest few days? Expelling Wilson-Raybould and Philpott was bad enough, but threatening to sue Andrew Scheer and answering the questions from opposition parties about the scandals with "I have a female minister of agriculture" seems unbelievably counterproductive.

Is he trying to bring his party down with him?

 

[Joe Poe 🌐]

So is it just me, or does Trudeau seem to completely have lost his grip in the latest few days? Expelling Wilson-Raybould and Philpott was bad enough, but threatening to sue Andrew Scheer and answering the questions from opposition parties about the scandals with "I have a female minister of agriculture" seems unbelievably counterproductive.

Is he trying to bring his party down with him?

Would not surprise me in the least. This political crisis is 100% of his own devising. I think he has two very fatal flaws. It seems to me, that when frustrated or disappointed, he loses his cool. The second? Trudeau does not always accurately think through the ultimate consequences of his actions. Trudeau has offset these personal weaknesses like a lot of people normally and reasonably would, which is by relying heavily on shrewder advisers. But this scandal really strikes at the heart of that, costing him the service of trusted aides. I think the head of the civil service has been forced to resign, right? Trudeau has been left more and more to his own judgment.

Canada’s politics are possibly the least polarized in the Western world. Liberals successfully appeal to business-minded voters; Conservatives effectively compete for ethnic minorities. Justin Trudeau marketed himself as a radically different kind of politician: open, transparent, feminist. For him to be seen browbeating an indigenous woman to protect politically wired insiders from facing the legal consequences of their wrongdoing... I mean, it's not a good look for him and his brand.

[Smid]

So is it just me, or does Trudeau seem to completely have lost his grip in the latest few days? Expelling Wilson-Raybould and Philpott was bad enough, but threatening to sue Andrew Scheer and answering the questions from opposition parties about the scandals with "I have a female minister of agriculture" seems unbelievably counterproductive.

Is he trying to bring his party down with him?

Would not surprise me in the least. This political crisis is 100% of his own devising. I think he has two very fatal flaws. It seems to me, that when frustrated or disappointed, he loses his cool. The second? Trudeau does not always accurately think through the ultimate consequences of his actions. Trudeau has offset these personal weaknesses like a lot of people normally and reasonably would, which is by relying heavily on shrewder advisers. But this scandal really strikes at the heart of that, costing him the service of trusted aides. I think the head of the civil service has been forced to resign, right? Trudeau has been left more and more to his own judgment.

Canada’s politics are possibly the least polarized in the Western world. Liberals successfully appeal to business-minded voters; Conservatives effectively compete for ethnic minorities. Justin Trudeau marketed himself as a radically different kind of politician: open, transparent, feminist. For him to be seen browbeating an indigenous woman to protect politically wired insiders from facing the legal consequences of their wrongdoing... I mean, it's not a good look for him and his brand.

David Frum makes a very similar point in The Atlantic, so you're in good company.

[beesley]

Andrew Scheer is texting people in the Atlantic provinces saying that gas prices are going up and to fill their tanks lolol

Why are the Tories sending texts out in the Maritimes? I was under the impression that it's mostly a Liberal region. Are the Tories that confident?

To add some example, the Conservatives have 6 seats in NB (Saint John, Fredericton, Miramichi, South West, Fundy Royal and Tobique-Mactaquac), 5 seats in NS (Cen Nova, West Nova, Cumberland-Colchester, Kings-Hants, South Shore) and 1 in PEI (Egmont), that they could win. Admittedly some of these are further out of reach than others, but if they are getting a majority, and the chance of that is higher, then they should get most of these.

[Foucaulf]

David Frum makes a very similar point in The Atlantic, so you're in good company.

Man, you were not kidding about "very similar:"

But there were always two cracks visible in the face Trudeau presented to the world... The first flaw: When frustrated or disappointed, he loses his cool. As one person on the receiving end of his ill temper put it to me, “He yells when he does not get his way, then gloats when he does.” The second? Trudeau does not always accurately think through the ultimate consequences of his actions...

Over the four years since he came to power in November 2015, Trudeau has offset his personal weaknesses by relying heavily on shrewder advisers. But since February, a serious and growing scandal has cost him the service of trusted aides. The head of the civil service has been forced to resign. Trudeau has been left more and more to his own judgment...

Canada’s politics are perhaps the least polarized in the Western world. The Liberals successfully appeal to business-minded voters; the Conservatives effectively compete for ethnic minorities. In an unpolarized polity, personality hugely matters. Justin Trudeau marketed himself as a radically different kind of politician: artless, open, transparent, feminist. For him to be seen browbeating an indigenous woman to protect politically wired insiders from facing the legal consequences of their wrongdoing—the reaction to that, in the words of a cover story in Maclean’s by the high eminence of Canadian political commentary, Paul Wells, is to emblazon him as “The Imposter.”

So let me add to what Frum said by citing Paul Wells, who I respect a lot:

As my moral betters in the newspaper columns never tire of repeating, by many standards the SNC-Lavalin mess is quite modest. It seems probable that no money changed hands improperly in 2018 and no law was broken... So why did the Liberals take such a hammering in the polls as it played out?

The answer, I think, is that each time, they reveal unlovely truths about this Prime Minister.

First, a constitutional inability to tell the truth quickly...

Second, a tendency to parry questions of substance with appeals to partisan advantage...

Finally, all three of these scandalettes have laid bare a stubbornly ramshackle approach to running what has sometimes been a serious country... On SNC, what emerges from all the testimony is the impression that a dozen kids from the McGill debating team snuck into the abandoned ruins of Ottawa and started pretending to be the government of Canada.

My first reaction from abroad to this SNC news was "wow, my god, this is like a Canadian Watergate." The facts of the matter, as Liberal partisans on twitter have repeated, makes it not sound so much like Watergate, but rather Trump's weird reactions to being accused that borders on obstruction of justice. It reminds me why I have a revulsion to the Canadian liberals to the first place - because they're the Canadian establishment, and said establishment does not worry about fighting dirty.

Not enough Canadians realize there are two institutions that run everyday affairs: the deputy ministers in all the federal ministries and the Prime Minister's Office, the northern White House in all but name. The current "top bureaucrat" Wernick debased himself by suggesting to JWR that the PM's priorities is political image. Trudeau's number 2, Gerry Butts, bailed from the PMO following the scandal. All of this makes me wonder how stable the Canadian federal executive was under Trudeau in the first place.

[Smid]

Paul Wells[/url], who I respect a lot

Yeah, I think Paul Wells is my preferred Canadian political journo. I think the fact that it seems that partisans on all sides thinks he's biased against their party indicates his impartiality, and I really enjoy his writing style, logical thought process and I think the angle he takes is usually correct (even when I don't want it to be). He's also so well-connected, that he usually has the inside story. When I'm talking to friends here about Canadian politics, I'll usually start by sending them a Wells article and telling them that if they want just one source, he's the best (but that they'd be served by following a few others, as well).

[politicallefty]

It seems like it hasn't been a good time for women in Canadian politics over the past few years.

Link

Women made up nearly half of the country's provincial and territorial leaders in 2013, but those ranks have slowly thinned as a succession of female premiers covering the entire political spectrum lost their re-election bids.

That list now includes Alberta's Rachel Notley, the last woman standing among Canada's first ministers until incoming premier Jason Kenney takes power and the seventh female provincial leader to be turfed from office in the past six years.

I'm not sure of the lean of the publication, although it's not the most flattering picture of Notley (they seem to make her look 10-15 years older than she is). However, the point is fairly clear. For all of its progressive virtues, Canada is very far from perfect in this regard.

[DC Al Fine]

It seems like it hasn't been a good time for women in Canadian politics over the past few years.

Link

Women made up nearly half of the country's provincial and territorial leaders in 2013, but those ranks have slowly thinned as a succession of female premiers covering the entire political spectrum lost their re-election bids.

That list now includes Alberta's Rachel Notley, the last woman standing among Canada's first ministers until incoming premier Jason Kenney takes power and the seventh female provincial leader to be turfed from office in the past six years.

I'm not sure of the lean of the publication, although it's not the most flattering picture of Notley (they seem to make her look 10-15 years older than she is). However, the point is fairly clear. For all of its progressive virtues, Canada is very far from perfect in this regard.

Eh that's pretty dubious. When you look at those premiers' individual situations the pattern is less obvious. Many of those premiers won elections in their own right before losing, and there are much more plausible reasons for their defeats than sexism. Examples include:

1) My scandal plagued party was seeking it's fifth term in office.

2) I'm the NDP premier of a super conservative province. Since I won power, the right has united, unemployment has spiked, and my national party keeps saying stuff that's politically toxic for my province.

Those sound like recipes for defeat no matter what your genitalia are.

[RogueBeaver]

Print Globe has a long feature by Radwanski about the PMO, which included Goodale reassuring multiple ministers he wouldn't take the reins temporarily.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

So the Greens are gonna win in PEI?

[DC Al Fine]

So the Greens are gonna win in PEI?

Probably yes.

[RogueBeaver]

Looks like a snap Manitoba election this year.

[brucejoel99]

So the Greens are gonna win in PEI?

Probably yes.

Evidently no.

[DC Al Fine]

So the Greens are gonna win in PEI?

Probably yes.

Evidently no.

My prediction track record is not great

[DC Al Fine]

Longtime Liberal MP for Cape Breton-Canso, Roger Cuzner will not run again. Cuzner was best known for reading a parody of The Night Before Christmas in the House before it adjourned for Christmas every year Should be an easy Liberal hold.