Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[mileslunn]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-more-than-leadership-or-policy-its-the-conservative-temperament-thats/

Coyne for the Globe.

I don't want to fully break the paywall, but this blurb resonated particularly well with me:

"If the besetting sin of Liberals is smarmy sanctimoniousness, the Conservative equivalent is a chippy defensiveness, an adolescent petulance, a conviction that the cards are perpetually stacked against them."

This is basically what I mean by the "Conservative image problem". It's not necessarily their policies (it's a part of it, but I don't think Canada is an inherently left-wing country where conservative politics can never win - people who criticize CPC policy for being too conservative are, for the most part, people who wouldn't vote for them anyway), the problem is their delivery. The CPC's culture, especially under O'Toole, manifests itself as angry and pessimistic - unlike the somewhat ideologically comparable Boris Johnson or Francois Legault who project more confidence and vision. Underneath that image I think is a defeatist mentality, a constant problem for generations of Canadian Conservatives.

Agree on the defeatists part.  I think Conservatives are afraid of Liberal attacks which will happen no matter what so better to go and out explain policy.  Yes it will get bashed by usual suspects, but if you stand for something better than nothing.  That being said winning can change things.  BC NDP has long had a defeatist mentality but after forming government in 2017, that has really changed. 

Also a lot of Conservatives seem to have a very pessimistic view of Canada that it is heading for all kinds of bad stuff and I don't think that sells.  Yes we have challenges but we are not going to become next Venezuela. 

Gordon Campbell in 2001 with New Era is a good example of a more positive one.  Very fiscally conservative platform but very much was forward looking not backward.  Off course today such platform wouldn't work, but still same tone with different policies may be way to go.

At same time, I do think last decade has really helped left.  In past lower taxes, balanced budgets, and smaller government was core conservative policy and until recently, there was a core audience for that.  Maybe not majority of population, but a solid 30% and over 40% open to it.  Today I think support for that much lower and not vote winner it once was so now party sort of doesn't know where to go.  There isn't any obvious Conservative policy that is a huge vote winner.  And many top issues like affordability, climate change, and income inequality, policies to deal with them tend to lean to left thus challenge.

[Geoffrey Howe]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-more-than-leadership-or-policy-its-the-conservative-temperament-thats/

Coyne for the Globe.

I don't want to fully break the paywall, but this blurb resonated particularly well with me:

"If the besetting sin of Liberals is smarmy sanctimoniousness, the Conservative equivalent is a chippy defensiveness, an adolescent petulance, a conviction that the cards are perpetually stacked against them."

This is basically what I mean by the "Conservative image problem". It's not necessarily their policies (it's a part of it, but I don't think Canada is an inherently left-wing country where conservative politics can never win - people who criticize CPC policy for being too conservative are, for the most part, people who wouldn't vote for them anyway), the problem is their delivery. The CPC's culture, especially under O'Toole, manifests itself as angry and pessimistic - unlike the somewhat ideologically comparable Boris Johnson or Francois Legault who project more confidence and vision. Underneath that image I think is a defeatist mentality, a constant problem for generations of Canadian Conservatives.

The similarities between the CPC and the Labour Party are quite astounding.

[mileslunn]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-more-than-leadership-or-policy-its-the-conservative-temperament-thats/

Coyne for the Globe.

I don't want to fully break the paywall, but this blurb resonated particularly well with me:

"If the besetting sin of Liberals is smarmy sanctimoniousness, the Conservative equivalent is a chippy defensiveness, an adolescent petulance, a conviction that the cards are perpetually stacked against them."

This is basically what I mean by the "Conservative image problem". It's not necessarily their policies (it's a part of it, but I don't think Canada is an inherently left-wing country where conservative politics can never win - people who criticize CPC policy for being too conservative are, for the most part, people who wouldn't vote for them anyway), the problem is their delivery. The CPC's culture, especially under O'Toole, manifests itself as angry and pessimistic - unlike the somewhat ideologically comparable Boris Johnson or Francois Legault who project more confidence and vision. Underneath that image I think is a defeatist mentality, a constant problem for generations of Canadian Conservatives.

The similarities between the CPC and the Labour Party are quite astounding.

Very true and while both once in a generation get a leader who is successful, they seem to fall apart when that leader leaves whereas Liberals in Canada and Tories in UK seem to avoid infighting and problems when this happens usually although not always. 

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

At same time, I do think last decade has really helped left.  In past lower taxes, balanced budgets, and smaller government was core conservative policy and until recently, there was a core audience for that.  Maybe not majority of population, but a solid 30% and over 40% open to it.  Today I think support for that much lower and not vote winner it once was so now party sort of doesn't know where to go.  There isn't any obvious Conservative policy that is a huge vote winner.  And many top issues like affordability, climate change, and income inequality, policies to deal with them tend to lean to left thus challenge.

Boris is nationalizing the very railways that Maggie Major privatized. Until 2020, rail nationalization was not a Conservative policy. Mulroney brought in NAFTA - until 1987, free trade with the US was not a Conservative policy. Chretien's government would have seemed pretty right-wing in the 1970s, even for the PCs, let alone Liberals. Blair's government would have been straight-up Tory in any other historic era. Nixon was pro-gun control and stated that "people should not have a handgun." Try getting elected as a Republican like that in 2021.

Conservatism (and to a certain degree, liberalism) isn't a dogmatic set of principles like socialism, it is defined by the socio-political context of the country. There is always appetite for some form of conservatism, it's up to the conservative parties to find how they can fit into the modern context, and this is something that can take a lot of time and patience.

[2952-0-0]

Minor nitpick, it wasn't Maggie who privatized the British railways. She even said that doing so would be the Waterloo of her government.

Specifically in Canada, the Liberal Party - like the UK Tories - have a talent for shape-shifting in response to changes in public opinion. It's definitely plausible that the Liberal Party would adopt ideas that we currently see as "conservative" in order to maintain its winning coalition.

I can see the Liberals reducing immigration numbers while coaching it as protecting the supply of housing to Canadians - as done by the New Zealand Labour Party. On social issues, I could see them adopting a skeptical tone towards transgender issues - coaching it as protecting women's rights. It's certainly plausible that the Liberals would push for a big increase in military spending - coached as protecting freedom in an increasingly dangerous world. Hence, the Liberals will have adopted positions we see as conservative, while coaching them in progressive language.

At least that's one benefit of having a natural governing party. The one party can always quietly shift its positions to dominate the mushy middle who (in a healthy democracy) decide things.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Minor nitpick, it wasn't Maggie who privatized the British railways. She even said that doing so would be the Waterloo of her government.

Huh, yeah turns out it was Major. I always thought it was Thatcher, then again, I keep forgetting John Major exists

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Minor nitpick, it wasn't Maggie who privatized the British railways. She even said that doing so would be the Waterloo of her government.
I can see the Liberals reducing immigration numbers while coaching it as protecting the supply of housing to Canadians - as done by the New Zealand Labour Party. On social issues, I could see them adopting a skeptical tone towards transgender issues - coaching it as protecting women's rights. It's certainly plausible that the Liberals would push for a big increase in military spending - coached as protecting freedom in an increasingly dangerous world. Hence, the Liberals will have adopted positions we see as conservative, while coaching them in progressive language.

The military spending thing I can see, in fact this Liberal government has actually increased military spending (they didn't talk much about it though). Not sure about taking a skeptical tone about trans issues because that would be a pretty obvious 180 degree turn.

Reducing immigration, they could at most get away with slightly cutting it and sweeping it under the rug, but I can't see the Liberals reversing their immigration-friendly image after all these decades of basically being the most pro-immigrant party in Canada, possibly the developed world (among major parties, anyway). Cutting immigration, especially family-based immigration, could reeeally hurt them in immigrant communities which are crucial in delivering GTA seats. Something would have to change drastically in Canada for the trade-off to be worth it.

In general, I think the LPC is a lot more comfortable going right on economics than social issues, because the Liberal brand is much more heavily tied to social progressivism than economic leftism. But of course, in the current environment, they're much better off sticking to the left on both fronts.

[mileslunn]

I think also Liberals do well in sense because they have won more elections than lost, people see them as safe choice so if unsure tend to default to them.  And having NDP to their left helps avoid being sunk by crazies in party.  Tories don't have any real party to their right (yes PPC and Maverick, but those are pretty small and fringe) thus have crazies who scare off moderate voters. 

For Tories a number of policies that are conservative but they might have a chance on are as follows:

-  A revenue neutral carbon tax like Michael Chong proposed or BC Liberals had.  Would anger base, but could be seen as pro business while helping environment.  True Chong's tax cuts were more towards higher income than lower, but can easily use same concept and just tweak rates.

-  Opportunity zones.  Any census division where unemployment is 1.5x the national average, firms that locate there would pay 5% instead of 9% if a small business and 10% instead of 15% if large.  So allows them to cut corporate taxes, but also aimed at helping communities that need it most.  Also so it creates jobs, require that it must employ at least five people who are not shareholders.

-  Remove barriers for foreign owned telcos to enter to allow more competition and choice.

-  Remove GST for 1 year on all restaurant bills and hotel bills so as to help hardest hit industries.  Or perhaps maybe a tax credit up to maximum of $1,000 for purchases on those and again only for one year.  UK did this last year for restaurants.

-  Allow joint income tax filing like US, Germany, and France do and perhaps maybe a cap so largely benefits lower incomes, so pro-family but lower taxes

-  Increased child tax benefit for each child so pro family and lower taxes.  In France, a single mother with 5 children has to make 57,000 Euros before she pays any income tax and France has higher birth rate than most of Europe.

-  Change immigration point system to give bonus points to those who go to low populated areas like Australia does.  This could help on housing front while still remaining pro-immigration and help smaller communities.

-  Expand rural broadband, this appeals to rural base but also could encourage more remote working.

-  Work with municipalities to convert office space to housing so help on housing front.

-  Policies to help make Canada a tech sector hub and knowledge corridors (Paul Martin was big on this and I think you could find cross party support here).

Obviously any socially conservative policy is DOA.  Cutting programs is a non-starter until we get a few credit downgrades.  Tax cuts despite being a staple conservative policy are actually toughest.  The ones that benefit lowest income tend to cost the most money while those aimed at higher income tend to be cheapest but least popular (we don't have a lot of rich people thus why cheaper).  In fact on tax policy, I think best thing is a full review of tax system, which I think is Conservative policy, but other than economists and some policy wonks, I doubt that is a big vote getter.  Still worth doing once in power like Mulroney did but to improve economy. 

I also think MacKay's job plan making some tweaks was good one.  It was more positive and forward looking rather than reactionary and negative.

[mileslunn]

Robert Fife just tweeted Stephen Harper spoke to UCP caucus.  That suggests trouble.  I also don't think Stephen Harper is that well liked, if anything more disliked today than even in 2015.  My bet is if Kenney stepped down and he were leader running against Notley, Notley would win hands down.  Heck if he ran against Trudeau, party would get absolutely crushed.  Otherwise party has to get as far away from him as they can to come back and that includes even in Alberta.

[King of Kensington]

Popular vote in BC:

Interior and North

Conservatives  266,459  47%
NDP  118,985  21%
Liberals  115,350  20.3%
Greens  50,417  8.8%

Lower Mainland

Conservatives  428,769  32.3%
Liberals  422,040  31.8%
NDP  314,015  23.7%
Greens  117,415  8.8%

Vancouver Island

NDP  150,437  31.2%
Greens  130,021  27%
Conservatives  116,262  24.1%
Liberals  76,739  15.9%

BC seems to have a pretty distinct political culture, and hard to say it shares much with the Prairies these days.  Lower Mainland includes the conservative Fraser Valley, Liberals almost certainy ahead in Metro Vancouver.  Vancouver Island is rather unique in that the Liberals are the fourth party and third party for "progressives", it is both progressive and anti-Liberal.

[beesley]

Are there any Anglophone areas that are really demographically similar to Vancouver Island but also just as supposedly left-wing?

[DC Al Fine]

Don't think this has been mentioned here yet:

NS Premier Iain Rankin disclosed two DUI incidents from 2003 and 2005 after a reporter began investigating it. This puts a damper on election speculation in Nova Scotia (which does not have fixed election dates), although the consensus is that Rankin will still call an election this summer or early fall.

Also, I can't believe I never noticed this, but Iain Rankin is the son of former longtime Halifax councilor Reg Rankin, who also had some alcohol related run-ins with the law, but more amusingly, was known in Halifax political circles for drunk dialing civil servants in the middle of the night to discuss constituent issues. Quite the colourful guy.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

And having NDP to their left helps avoid being sunk by crazies in party.  Tories don't have any real party to their right (yes PPC and Maverick, but those are pretty small and fringe) thus have crazies who scare off moderate voters.

To this point, I find that there are plenty of "NDP-esque" people in the LPC grassroots, caucus and even cabinet. Beyond the obvious Erskine-Smith who is a backbencher, I'd argue that some cabinet ministers like Guilbeault and Hajdu would much more easily fit into an NDP-like platform. At the grassroots level I've even met Liberals who define themselves as socialist. The difference being that the "Liberal left" is much more pragmatist and more deferential to authority and incrementalism than the NDP. In other words, Warren could be a Grit but Sanders wouldn't.

For Tories a number of policies that are conservative but they might have a chance on are as follows:

-  A revenue neutral carbon tax like Michael Chong proposed or BC Liberals had.  Would anger base, but could be seen as pro business while helping environment.  True Chong's tax cuts were more towards higher income than lower, but can easily use same concept and just tweak rates.

-  Opportunity zones.  Any census division where unemployment is 1.5x the national average, firms that locate there would pay 5% instead of 9% if a small business and 10% instead of 15% if large.  So allows them to cut corporate taxes, but also aimed at helping communities that need it most.  Also so it creates jobs, require that it must employ at least five people who are not shareholders.

-  Remove barriers for foreign owned telcos to enter to allow more competition and choice.

-  Remove GST for 1 year on all restaurant bills and hotel bills so as to help hardest hit industries.  Or perhaps maybe a tax credit up to maximum of $1,000 for purchases on those and again only for one year.  UK did this last year for restaurants.

-  Allow joint income tax filing like US, Germany, and France do and perhaps maybe a cap so largely benefits lower incomes, so pro-family but lower taxes

-  Increased child tax benefit for each child so pro family and lower taxes.  In France, a single mother with 5 children has to make 57,000 Euros before she pays any income tax and France has higher birth rate than most of Europe.

-  Change immigration point system to give bonus points to those who go to low populated areas like Australia does.  This could help on housing front while still remaining pro-immigration and help smaller communities.

-  Expand rural broadband, this appeals to rural base but also could encourage more remote working.

-  Work with municipalities to convert office space to housing so help on housing front.

-  Policies to help make Canada a tech sector hub and knowledge corridors (Paul Martin was big on this and I think you could find cross party support here).

Obviously any socially conservative policy is DOA.  Cutting programs is a non-starter until we get a few credit downgrades.  Tax cuts despite being a staple conservative policy are actually toughest.  The ones that benefit lowest income tend to cost the most money while those aimed at higher income tend to be cheapest but least popular (we don't have a lot of rich people thus why cheaper).  In fact on tax policy, I think best thing is a full review of tax system, which I think is Conservative policy, but other than economists and some policy wonks, I doubt that is a big vote getter.  Still worth doing once in power like Mulroney did but to improve economy.  

I also think MacKay's job plan making some tweaks was good one.  It was more positive and forward looking rather than reactionary and negative.

I agree with most everything you said, if the Tories actually adopted a platform like this and showed some level of seriousness beyond "Trudeau bad" I would personally at least consider them, and I believe a lot of current Liberal supporters would too. I take no issue with the Liberals' actions on some of these areas, but some of your points like on immigration, "opportunity zones" and housing are things that could make me switch.

The carbon tax one is politically difficult though. Even O'Toole's watered-down, frankly ridiculous "petro-points carbon tax" was very unpopular with the CPC base, going for a full-on Chong-like carbon tax would be a huge betrayal. Not to mention, carbon taxes are only effective when the rates are high enough to incentivize ditching a carbon-intensive lifestyle, and the Liberals are raising it. Keeping the Liberals' rate would really piss off the base, increasing the Liberals' rate would straight up destroy the party from within, and lowering the rate would make carbon pricing less effective. It's hard for the CPC to win on carbon taxes, which is why I think they're best off shutting up about it as much as they can.

On the housing thing, here's something the Tories can do to really win votes in urban areas, although it would piss off the NIMBYs in their base and would require them to accept a BoJo-esque "big government Toryism". They could promise to massively increase funding for municipalities that decrease single-family zoning and focus primarily on intensification. Single-family zoning is the biggest culprit for Canada's housing crisis, but it's mostly a municipal issue. So the federal government could create conditions that make YIMBYism pay and NIMBYism cost. Honestly, if the Conservatives had the balls to go for something radically progressive-conservative like this instead of being ideologically empty reactionaries, I think the payoff could be tremendous.

Edit: Not to mention, this kind of incentive mechanism would inherently be a more ideologically conservative and potentially cost-effective position compared to the more left-wing solution of building social housing. On the whole, I think Canadian voters would much rather go for a policy of increased and effective private development compared to government housing. Liberals understand this, hence why they too focus on private development, but they've been too shy to actually make real moves here. The Conservatives could flank the Liberals on ambitiousness while maintaining a more ideologically comfortable position.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Are there any Anglophone areas that are really demographically similar to Vancouver Island?

How do you mean? There are Anglo areas with a similar racial/age/income breakdown as Vancouver Island, but I can't name any other old, white, rural, and middle-to-low income area that votes so far to the left.

[DC Al Fine]

Are there any Anglophone areas that are really demographically similar to Vancouver Island?

How do you mean? There are Anglo areas with a similar racial/age/income breakdown as Vancouver Island, but I can't name any other old, white, rural, and middle-to-low income area that votes so far to the left.

That's the answer I was looking for.

Isn't Brighton rather old, and fond of the Greens?

[beesley]

Are there any Anglophone areas that are really demographically similar to Vancouver Island?

How do you mean? There are Anglo areas with a similar racial/age/income breakdown as Vancouver Island, but I can't name any other old, white, rural, and middle-to-low income area that votes so far to the left.

That's the answer I was looking for.

Isn't Brighton rather old, and fond of the Greens?

Sussex does have a large older population, but much of Brighton itself is very young these days.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

Are there any Anglophone areas that are really demographically similar to Vancouver Island?

Byron Bay and the surrounding Northern Rivers in Northern NSW strikes me as overall fairly similar to Vancouver Island. Very greeny politically, full of older hippies and ex-communes, scattered remnants of old conservative dominance of yesteryear, large surfing community. I imagine there's quite a lot more similarities but I'm not too familiar with Canada.

[Tintrlvr]

Are there any Anglophone areas that are really demographically similar to Vancouver Island?

How do you mean? There are Anglo areas with a similar racial/age/income breakdown as Vancouver Island, but I can't name any other old, white, rural, and middle-to-low income area that votes so far to the left.

That's the answer I was looking for.

Humboldt and Mendocino Counties in California are definitely similar to Vancouver Island: lots of aging hippies, not especially wealthy for the area, no big cities, very left-wing.

Lincoln County, Oregon is like this, too, but less left-wing.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Oh yeah if we're talking elsewhere in the Anglo world there are tons of similar places in the Pacific Northwest. BC is basically an extension of the PNW in some respects.

Within Canada, you could make an argument for PEI except it's very deferential to the LPC and the NDP doesn't have much of a presence. But it's old, white, pretty rural, touristy, and leans left. Although PEI is also very agricultural unlike Vancouver Island, so the root of its left lean is different. PEI is ancestrally Liberal, very rarely voting Tory federally, while Vancouver Island does not have this ancestral Liberal tradition.

[Tintrlvr]

Oh yeah if we're talking elsewhere in the Anglo world there are tons of similar places in the Pacific Northwest. BC is basically an extension of the PNW in some respects.

Within Canada, you could make an argument for PEI except it's very deferential to the LPC and the NDP doesn't have much of a presence. But it's old, white, pretty rural, touristy, and leans left. Although PEI is also very agricultural unlike Vancouver Island, so the root of its left lean is different. PEI is ancestrally Liberal, very rarely voting Tory federally, while Vancouver Island does not have this ancestral Liberal tradition.

West Kootenay in BC is pretty similar to Vancouver Island, too, and definitely the most similar area in Canada (other than immediately adjacent areas like the Sunshine Coast and Powell River). Kind of interesting that the same doesn't continue over the border into Washington or Idaho at all.

[DC Al Fine]

Former chief of the defence staff Jonathan Vance has been charged with obstruction of justice, related to the ongoing investigation of his alleged sexual misconduct

Good. I live in a military town, and people are really salty about the hypocrisy of the brass pushing Operation Honour while ignoring their own rampant sexual misconduct.

[mileslunn]

Oh yeah if we're talking elsewhere in the Anglo world there are tons of similar places in the Pacific Northwest. BC is basically an extension of the PNW in some respects.

Within Canada, you could make an argument for PEI except it's very deferential to the LPC and the NDP doesn't have much of a presence. But it's old, white, pretty rural, touristy, and leans left. Although PEI is also very agricultural unlike Vancouver Island, so the root of its left lean is different. PEI is ancestrally Liberal, very rarely voting Tory federally, while Vancouver Island does not have this ancestral Liberal tradition.

I would describe PEI as more traditional Red Tory in likes of Joe Clark and Robert Stanfield.  They have a Tory premier who is very popular.  Federally Tories do poorly there as right wing populism doesn't sell there and party seen as too much like Reform Party.  So I would argue Liberal strength there is more due to dislike of alternatives.  In many ways it is your communitarian conservative area in culture and that style of conservatism is largely absent in federal Tories but Liberals in many ways have elements that can appeal to those types.

[mileslunn]

Oh yeah if we're talking elsewhere in the Anglo world there are tons of similar places in the Pacific Northwest. BC is basically an extension of the PNW in some respects.

Within Canada, you could make an argument for PEI except it's very deferential to the LPC and the NDP doesn't have much of a presence. But it's old, white, pretty rural, touristy, and leans left. Although PEI is also very agricultural unlike Vancouver Island, so the root of its left lean is different. PEI is ancestrally Liberal, very rarely voting Tory federally, while Vancouver Island does not have this ancestral Liberal tradition.

West Kootenay in BC is pretty similar to Vancouver Island, too, and definitely the most similar area in Canada (other than immediately adjacent areas like the Sunshine Coast and Powell River). Kind of interesting that the same doesn't continue over the border into Washington or Idaho at all.

Two reasons for this: Dhukobors and Draft Dodgers.  Former live a communal lifestyle and are a pacifists while latter specifically moved from US in 60s and many settled in Slocan Valley.  In fact in Nelson and surrounding area, a large part of the senior population was born in US and moved up during Vietnam War to avoid serving thus brought the hippie counterculture with them.

[King of Kensington]

I would describe PEI as more traditional Red Tory in likes of Joe Clark and Robert Stanfield.  They have a Tory premier who is very popular.  Federally Tories do poorly there as right wing populism doesn't sell there and party seen as too much like Reform Party.  So I would argue Liberal strength there is more due to dislike of alternatives.  In many ways it is your communitarian conservative area in culture and that style of conservatism is largely absent in federal Tories but Liberals in many ways have elements that can appeal to those types.

Yeah PEI is more "traditional" and Vancouver Island more "counter-cultural."

[King of Kensington]

"Western alienation" doesn't seem to be much of a thing in South Burnaby.  When Jagmeet Singh moved there to run a small number may have objected to him being a parachute candidate, but nobody seemed to object on the grounds that he's an "easterner" who "doesn't get the West."