Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[DC Al Fine]

Andrew Scheer is texting people in the Atlantic provinces saying that gas prices are going up and to fill their tanks lolol

Why are the Tories sending texts out in the Maritimes? I was under the impression that it's mostly a Liberal region. Are the Tories that confident?

The Liberals are hemorrhaging support in the Maritimes lately

To add to what Joey said, there is something of a tradition in the Maritimes of swinging hard against a government after it wins its first majority. E.g. the federal elections of 1997 and 2015.

[DC Al Fine]

Andrew Scheer is texting people in the Atlantic provinces saying that gas prices are going up and to fill their tanks lolol

Why are the Tories sending texts out in the Maritimes? I was under the impression that it's mostly a Liberal region. Are the Tories that confident?

The Liberals are hemorrhaging support in the Maritimes lately

To add to what Joey said, there is something of a tradition in the Maritimes of swinging hard against a government after it wins its first majority. E.g. the federal elections of 1997 and 2015.

1997 was weird, as the Liberals collapsed in the Maritimes, but held on nationally. The Maritimes were enraged at Harper for his EI reforms. Did the Liberals enact EI reforms before the 1997 election?

Yes, look into the Liberal cabinet minister Lloyd Axworthy.

Yup. Won 31/32 Maritime seats in '93, and lost 21 of them in 1997, including all 11 in Nova Scotia, which they swept the election before.

[DC Al Fine]

It seems like it hasn't been a good time for women in Canadian politics over the past few years.

Link

Women made up nearly half of the country's provincial and territorial leaders in 2013, but those ranks have slowly thinned as a succession of female premiers covering the entire political spectrum lost their re-election bids.

That list now includes Alberta's Rachel Notley, the last woman standing among Canada's first ministers until incoming premier Jason Kenney takes power and the seventh female provincial leader to be turfed from office in the past six years.

I'm not sure of the lean of the publication, although it's not the most flattering picture of Notley (they seem to make her look 10-15 years older than she is). However, the point is fairly clear. For all of its progressive virtues, Canada is very far from perfect in this regard.

Eh that's pretty dubious. When you look at those premiers' individual situations the pattern is less obvious. Many of those premiers won elections in their own right before losing, and there are much more plausible reasons for their defeats than sexism. Examples include:

1) My scandal plagued party was seeking it's fifth term in office.

2) I'm the NDP premier of a super conservative province. Since I won power, the right has united, unemployment has spiked, and my national party keeps saying stuff that's politically toxic for my province.

Those sound like recipes for defeat no matter what your genitalia are.

[DC Al Fine]

So the Greens are gonna win in PEI?

Probably yes.

[DC Al Fine]

So the Greens are gonna win in PEI?

Probably yes.

Evidently no.

My prediction track record is not great

[DC Al Fine]

Longtime Liberal MP for Cape Breton-Canso, Roger Cuzner will not run again. Cuzner was best known for reading a parody of The Night Before Christmas in the House before it adjourned for Christmas every year Should be an easy Liberal hold.

[DC Al Fine]

Tories take the lead in a new Nova Scotia poll from MQO research. Greens are surging too. Brackets are change from last MQO poll.

Tory: 38% (+5)
Liberal: 30% (-11)
NDP: 18% (-1)
Green: 12% (+7)

[DC Al Fine]

To add an item in the Justcice file
35. SNC-Lavalin remediation agreement

Hehe

[DC Al Fine]

Stephen McNeil has called three by-elections as a result of three Tory MLA's winning federal nominations and resigning their seats.

[DC Al Fine]

Kim Campell is a nasty loser!

Come on, it takes real talent to go from 156 seats to 2 in 3 months

I actually tweeted a screenshot of her wikibox. So far no response

That campaign was such a sh**tshow. Who would've thought ads attacking a candidate's facial deformity would backfire

[DC Al Fine]

Former MP for New Brunswick Southwest and current MLA for St. Croix Greg Thompson has died. RIP

[DC Al Fine]

Guess we can start posting here again now that the election is over.

Scheer survived the first opportunity to replace him with caucus voting against giving themselves the ability to initiate a leadership review. On to the big challenge in April.

Also, May has resigned as Green Party leader. Any ideas on who could replace her besides the other two MP's in her caucus?

[DC Al Fine]

Globe says Caroline Mulroney and Michael Fortier might be interested in replacing Scheer.

This is one of the reasons I think we should let Scheer have another kick at the can; we invested a lot of time and money into his brand, and I'm not seeing any compelling candidates to start over with. MacKay is the only strong alternative IMO and he gives me strong paper tiger vibes.

This is probably at least in part due to Harper's overly leader-centric style and failure to develop his front bench. They had a few strong contenders but those are mostly unavailable. Stuff happens, people move on etc, so ideally one would want several plausible strong successors in a party, which will whittle down during an actual leadership election. I wonder if the Liberals will suffer from the same issue when Trudeau goes.

[DC Al Fine]

Globe says Caroline Mulroney and Michael Fortier might be interested in replacing Scheer.

This is one of the reasons I think we should let Scheer have another kick at the can; we invested a lot of time and money into his brand, and I'm not seeing any compelling candidates to start over with. MacKay is the only strong alternative IMO and he gives me strong paper tiger vibes.

This is probably at least in part due to Harper's overly leader-centric style and failure to develop his front bench. They had a few strong contenders but those are mostly unavailable. Stuff happens, people move on etc, so ideally one would want several plausible strong successors in a party, which will whittle down during an actual leadership election. I wonder if the Liberals will suffer from the same issue when Trudeau goes.

Possible. There was reports that some Liberals were lobbying Mark Carney as replacement if Trudeau lost.

Haha, people love to speculate about non-pols. I saw Ben Mulroney's name tossed around if Scheer goes

It's an interesting issue. Freeland is definitly a bona fide leadership contender but the list isn't too long after that.

[DC Al Fine]

Is Caroline Mulroney a red Torie?

I'm not sure about the "red" label, but my understanding is that she is to the left of Scheer but right of MacKay.

[DC Al Fine]

Jagmeet Singh is publicly musing about voting against the Throne Speech. Guess this marks the beginning of minority parliament haggling.

[DC Al Fine]

Are the Clarks even Conservative anymore?

Joe definitely isn't. Besides, being a Clark is a huge negative for a Tory hopeful. Mulroney, for all his issues, won two majorities, had some right wing policy achievements, and backed the merger. Clark mishandled a minority, somehow managed to let a damaged Trudeau Sr win a 4th term and then pissed away whatever remaining goodwill he had during his 2nd leadership by holding up and attacking the Alliance-PC merger.

Even the Reds (of which I am sort of part of) dislike him. Honestly the only people that seem to like Joe Clark are in other parties. Not a great recipe for his kid winning leadership (if she's even a Tory).

[DC Al Fine]

Who would replace him? O’Toole? Or a black horse like Gérard Deltell?

Maybe. There's a bunch of names floating around. Peter MacKay. I've heard rumours that Michelle Rempel is organizing. Garnett Genius is shaping up to be the socon candidate apparently. It's kind of an open question, since when and how Scheer leaves could have a big effect.

Heck, maybe Trudeau has a scandal next week, we get new elections and Scheer gets ousted under totally different circumstances than what we're expecting. Maybe he becomes PM. Who knows.

This is kind of like asking who will the 2016 GOP nominee be in December 2012.

[DC Al Fine]

RIP: John Crosbie has died at 88.

They don't make them like that anymore. RIP

[DC Al Fine]

The pipeline was approved by all the elected tribal leaders on the path of the pipeline.  The un-elected "hereditary" chiefs are the ones leading the push to make sure the safest way to move one of the cleaner sources of energy is way more expensive than it needs to be and takes longer to get done and harming all Canadians (poor more than the rich too) in the process.  You'd think people would be on the side of the elected leaders and not some random dude who claims his great grandaddy was, but here we are.  You'd think they'd want energy companies to use the safest way to move the energy around too, but people are weird sometimes.

Are the elected leaders disguating corrupt garbage, or do they actually represent the interests of their constituents? I genuinely don't know, but it's a huge question IMO.

I agree and I have no idea.

Fun fact. Two of the hereditary chiefs involved in the protest actually ran for elected chief and lost to candidates who later agreed to the pipeline. Make of that what you will.

https://twitter.com/BoyerMichel/status/1229189542143459330

Lol what do people expect Trudeau to do here? Marc Miller, who's better qualified than Trudeau to deal with this, is currently meeting with the Mohawk protesters. This is why he has a Cabinet.

This is more a leadership question than a specific achievement question. The Prime Minister wants to avoid the perception that he's indifferent to indigenous issues on the left and that he's fiddling while Rome burns on the right. Sometimes you just need to be somewhere in person.

[DC Al Fine]

I've been on vacation and I haven't been following politics too much. How much do people actually care about the protests/blockades? Are the comparisons to the Winter of Discontent accurate, or is it something people will likely forget come the next news cycle?

If I had to guess, it's in between. Hard to tell though, and there haven't been any polls released with Feb field work yet

[DC Al Fine]

My parents' propane dealer is no longer delivering to them as they only use propane as a secondary heat source. Propane is only being delivered to those who use it as their primary heat source.

A Dalhousie Univeristy food industry expert says we're about two weeks away from food shortages, starting in the Maritimes and spreading from there.

The Prime Minister has often expressed his dislike for right wing populism. He would do well to understand that empty grocery stores and shortages of heating fuel (in Canada... in winter) will do more for right wing populism than a hundred Maxime Berniers ever could.

[DC Al Fine]

The Prime Minister has often expressed his dislike for right wing populism. He would do well to understand that empty grocery stores and shortages of heating fuel (in Canada... in winter) will do more for right wing populism than a hundred Maxime Berniers ever could.

This is my big worry with regards to these blockades. However, I couldn't find any references to shortages in the article you linked.

D'oh! Linked the wrong article. Fixed

[DC Al Fine]

Latest Nanos poll

Tory: 36% (+5)
Liberal: 33% (-1)
NDP: 15% (-2)
Bloc: 7% (-1)
Green: 7% (-2)
People's: 1% (nc)

A good couple weeks for the Tories.

[DC Al Fine]

Excuse my ignorance, but what is "People's"?

Far right/libertarian vehicle of failed Tory leadership candidate Maxime Bernier.

Ah right, maybe not doing as well as he hoped then?

Correct. He lost his seat to a Tory by about 10% in October.