Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[mileslunn]

Recent provincial #'s are interesting.

BC: Despite recent uptick in COVID cases, Horgan still very popular and in great position to win a majority.  Wonder if he tries to engineer a fall election.

Alberta: Kenney is least popular premier and while would probably still win due to Alberta's conservative bent; post COVID-19 austerity may sink him.  At very least if Liberals were smart they should run attack ads of Kenney endorsing O'Toole as this could help them win back seats in Edmonton and maybe a few in Calgary.  Also I kind of think Kenney not Ford will be the bogeyman Liberals use next time.

Saskatchewan: Moe has a big lead and unless he does something criminal, he is pretty much guaranteed another majority.  More a question of just how big it is.

Manitoba:  Pallister is 2nd least popular premier, still his approval rating is fairly close to what he got last September so if an election were held today probably a repeat with maybe only a few close seats flipping.

Ontario: Ford has seen a big rebound and if an election were held today would easily be re-elected.  I think Ontario Liberals might win a few Tory held GTA seats, but PCs likely to pick up several NDP seats.  I could see blue collar ones like Oshawa, Niagara Centre, and Essex follow international trend and flip PC next time around.  What a different a year makes as a year ago he was a dead man walking, now the heavy favourite.  Off course things can change, so just saying where things are, not where they will be in June 2022.  Also good news for Tories federally as Ford now an asset not anchor, but will only gain there if federally if Trudeau's approval turns negative, not if it stays positive.

Quebec: Legault's approval ratings still sky high and would probably sweep just about every riding where Francophones are over 50% of the population.  Trudeau would be best not to anger him, while BQ try to align as much as possible.  While unlikely, O'Toole if smart would try to find a way to get his endorsement or at least one his top cabinet ministers.  Tories unlikely to make big gains in Quebec, but CAQ success shows potential is there, question is can they capitalize on it?

New Brunswick: Higgs looks in good shape to win a majority.  Yes early election call had some backlash, but as long as he remains ahead should win a majority.  He is cannibalizing most of the PANB so combined right support hasn't changed much.

PEI:  Dennis King very popular so wonder if he tries to go for an election soon to win a majority.

Nova Scotia: Not a lot of polling here, but with McNeil stepping down, will get a better read after new leader chosen.

Newfoundland & Labrador: Their new premier is largely unknown so has both potential to do well and potential to be a flip.

Yukon: Probably wait until next year for election, but with no polls no idea on how things are going there but based on how most premiers in Canada are getting a COVID bump and Yukon had few cases, I would assume Sandy Silver is too.

NWT and Nunavut: Have consensus governments so political polling irrelevant, but doing well on COVID-19

[mileslunn]

I think timing is key too.  Tories are generally known as fiscally conservative and until economy recovers, no one wants to hear about austerity or balanced budgets.  But down the road this could come to bite the Liberals but probably after next election.  Realistically I think O'Toole needs to do better than Harper in Quebec to have any chance.

Lower Mainland is swinging hard away from Tories, but unlike provincially there are strong splits so while repeating Harper's showing in Lower Mainland of 2011 probably not realistic, no reason cannot do better than 2019.  Already have most of the Prairies and only a few ridings left there to win.  In Ontario, 905 belt is a mixed bag.  York region used to be solidly Liberal back in Chretien/Martin days, but nowadays its region Tories tend to perform best in.  He is from Durham region so has some local roots although I think Ajax and Pickering-Uxbridge have bad demographics and probably out of reach for Tories.  Pickering-Uxbridge maybe possible if he can start pulling off Trump like margins in rural parts (going through US precincts, that was how Trump stayed north of 40% in many suburban counties, but getting over 2/3 in rural precincts which outside Prairies Tories are not doing).

Peel region, need to like Doug Ford do better in cultural communities and I feel there is potential but usually it takes time to get known before you can breakthrough.  Harper took more than one election while Doug Ford due to his brother being mayor already had those connections.  Halton region is a lot like Loudoun County, Virginia, Fairfield County, Connecticut, or Chester County, Pennsylvania; not too long ago GOP won there easily, but now has become toxic.  Mind you if O'Toole takes on a more traditional fiscally conservative socially liberal, he could gain there, but only once we've recovered and concerns about deficits and big spending rise, which I don't see happening before next election.

London is gone and for Kitchener, only Kitchener-Conestoga and Cambridge winnable and likewise with Ottawa only Nepean and Kanata-Carleton.  That being said all of those do include some rural polls so again if like Trump O'Toole can run up the margins in the rural parts and not get blown out too badly in suburban parts possible but so far no Tory has yet done this successfully. 

For Atlantic Canada it tends to prefer Red Tories, so I think MacKay with his roots there and strong ties to provincial PCs probably had a better shot there than O'Toole but O'Toole an improvement over Scheer.

Realistically its true, Tories don't really have a path to 270.  Mind you in Ontario, PCs path to 63 is really difficult yet Ford managed to achieve it so if people are mad enough can be done.  But I think you need to reach throw the bums out level before this happens which we are not at yet.

I think just in general, now is a good time for the left and bad for right.  Look at how bad Kenney is crashing in polls and Pallister too.  People aren't interested in fiscal conservatism right now and libertarianism as Kenney is learning the hard way only sells amongst rabid base.  Thus the big challenge for Tories and I think Trudeau knows this so will go while public is still in left wing mood knowing eventually it will swing back towards centre.

Also wonder what role provincial politics will play.

Will Horgan's popularity help NDP win big in BC or does it just push NDP up enough to allow Tories to come up middle in several seats or no impact as seems lots of Trudeau-Horgan voters in BC.

Does Kenney's tanking approval rating cost O'Toole seats in Alberta, especially as Kenney endorsed O'Toole or do they as often the case separate two.  One pollster thinks Kenney is toast, although I think that is probably true if an election were held today, skeptical it will necessary be the case in 2023.  Definitely possible he loses but still time to recover, but any recovery in his numbers if it happens comes after next federal election.

Does Ford's rebound work in O'Toole's favour.  Liberals did well in Ontario by tying Scheer to Ford.  Now Ford is no longer a liability like he was last year.  Kenney is but Tories have a big enough cushion in Alberta and outside people's opinions aren't as strong so seat wise being tied to Kenney probably doesn't worry O'Toole too much but maybe helps Liberals gain a seat or two in Alberta.

What is Legault's impact?  He is very popular but likely stays neutral although I don't think any federal leader wants to get on his bad side.

[mileslunn]

I meant 170 seats, which ironically in Canada is the magic number to get a majority.  We have 338 seats while US 538 electoral votes which is interesting.

[mileslunn]

UCP is worst with now four caught.  Kenney already tied with Pallister as least popular premier and likely having to make a lot of unpopular cuts, I actually I am thinking Notley is now favoured for 2023, but still a lot can happen.  Nike Ashton also get caught but was removed from critic role.  In her case it was to visit an ill relative in Greece, but still technically against advice.

[mileslunn]

Anybody see recent Mainstreet poll in Alberta?  Shows NDP at 48%, UCP at 31% Wildrose Independence party at 10% so even combined right is trailing (https://www.westernstandardonline.com/2021/01/exclusive-new-poll-shows-ucp-collapse-as-ndp-wildrose-surge/).  Frank Graves tweeted Kenney's approval rating at 16%.  So I believe idea of Notley winning in 2023 is not far fetched but actually fairly likely although not certain.  Never mind if bad poll numbers persist I am guessing UCP dumps Kenney as leader which can change a lot. 

Still wondering, is this the end of conservative dominance of Alberta?  Not saying Tories won't win there in future, just think their lock on province is over and it will be more like BC, Ontario, and Manitoba sometimes voting for centre-right parties but not all the time.  Also be interesting if this spills over federally.  Hasn't happened yet, but considering Kenney endorsed O'Toole, I cannot help but that there is an opportunity for Liberals and NDP.  Only caveat is federal NDP far more anti-oil than provincial NDP who support O&G sector unlike federal counterparts.  And Trudeau still very unpopular, way more so than Notley.  Thoughts here>

[mileslunn]

As I said a bit ago, Saskatchewan is the new Alberta (and vice versa)

Agreed Saskatchewan is now most conservative province.  Not sure Alberta will see NDP dominance like once saw in Saskatchewan, but I think Alberta is now maybe new BC where centre-right option wins majority of time but not always, but its fairly competitive not a landslide.

[mileslunn]

As I said a bit ago, Saskatchewan is the new Alberta (and vice versa)

Agreed Saskatchewan is now most conservative province.  Not sure Alberta will see NDP dominance like once saw in Saskatchewan, but I think Alberta is now maybe new BC where centre-right option wins majority of time but not always, but its fairly competitive not a landslide.

Though that is of course complicated by the main right-leaning party in BC being the Liberals.

And BC Liberals a much bigger tent too.  I know a few people who are BC Liberals and wouldn't go UCP if in Alberta, but still idea in terms of vote breakdown.  Its like comparing Tories to Republicans even though many Tories wouldn't vote Republican if they lived in US.

[mileslunn]

https://mobile.twitter.com/GlobalJesus/status/1352718000063795200
This guy is a clown.

He is too worried about another fracture on the right as a loud right wing minority are claiming he is not right wing enough.  But they are only about 10% of population and mostly in rural ridings which will go UCP anyways so no worry if splits.  He is angering centrists and why trailing in polls.  Edmonton is gone and behind in Calgary.  He has wrongly assumed Alberta is far more right wing than it really is.  I do wonder if his unpopularity will allow Liberals or NDP federally to win a few seats in Edmonton or Calgary.  I don't see either beating Tories overall, but could see them taking 5-6 seats and over time wouldn't be surprised if Tories lose their grip on Alberta. 

Tories nationally are in a tight bind and risk being in opposition for years to come.  Moderate to appeal to swing voters thus have a chance federally and risk right flank splitting off thus another split on right.  Otherwise if you had someone like Michael Chong as leader, combined right would probably be in 40s, but likely a further right wing gets 10% thus making winning difficult.  Pander to more right wing elements and keep party united but ensure party remains stuck in the high 20s to low 30s and never wins.

[mileslunn]

Visible minority:

Liberals 53%
Conservatives 22%
NDP 20%
Greens 4%
BQ 0

https://twitter.com/DavidColetto/status/1350087616570523654

That is devastating news for Tories.  Last time they did this bad amongst visible minorities was 2004.  And with Ontario and BC being even less white than then, they can kiss those provinces goodbye.  Still will win in Interior and rural Southern Ontario, but not 905 belt or Lower Mainland suburbs.  Also could be bad news in Alberta although I am guessing its a bit higher in Alberta while around 10% or lower in Quebec so two cancel each other out thus that in BC and Ontario. 

Funny thing is with white millennials being very progressive, I would argue Tories long term if they want to be successful need to win here.  Visible minorities are generally fairly centrists if not centre-right, just not crazy right wing so lots of potential, but again pandering too much to base and not enough to swing voters.  Similar to US as both African-Americans and Hispanics have lots who lean right and would vote GOP if they weren't so racist, but thanks to that they don't thus why instead of being the dominant they are weaker party.  Tories seem to want to follow same path.

By contrast Ford and Kenney both did well amongst visible minorities and down under, both National and L/NP in Australia did quite well amongst non-whites.  In fact in New Zealand, I believe Chinese community was the only group National Party won in most recent election.

[mileslunn]

I think Tories are in a bigger rut due to shift in public opinion.  Liberals have never really been anchored to anyone ideology so they can shift whichever way wind blows.  People may be upset about Liberals being late on vaccines, but I think general fear and mistrust of Tories means they have to mess up really badly to lose.  A bad rollout probably means a minority instead of majority.

In last decade, the base has become even more right wing so any more moderation risks creating another split on right.  By same token median voter has moved even further left so your Blue Liberal/Red Tory demographic exists but much smaller than they've been in the past.  Essentially I would argue gap between median voter and Tory base is too large to bridge thus why they cannot win in the near future.  Whereas 10 years ago it was a challenge but at least possible to bridge it.

I also think pandemic has created perfect storm to make big government popular so what can Tories run on?  Social and cultural conservatism has always been a vote loser in Canada.  Fiscal conservatism was once a vote winner but not now.  And trying to be like Liberals won't work as people will just vote for real one.  Thus I think failure to win in 2019 means party missed its opportunity and will likely be in opposition for quite some time.

As for provincial conservative parties, PCs in Atlantic Canada and CAQ doing well but there is enough daylight between them and federal Tories.  Ford is doing okay and would probably win a majority if held today, but I would say he is more vulnerable than Trudeau is.  Pallister is definitely in trouble, but time to recover and besides not likely to run again in 2023.  The one advantage of Manitoba is PCs more or less have a lock on rural ridings outside North so that is 40% of seats right there.  Next time NDP wins in Manitoba, it will probably be by a near sweep of Winnipeg.

For Saskatchewan, Moe's approval has slid a bit, but I think Saskatchewan will probably replace Alberta as Canada's most Conservative province if it hasn't already.  Kenney is very unpopular and I would say at this point, Notley is probably favoured to win in 2023.  Not a certainty, but I don't buy idea when right is united they automatically win in Alberta.  That may have once been true but not anymore.  Real question is when does Edmonton and Calgary at federal level start voting like other cities their size?  It still leans heavily Tory, but in another decade, I could see Liberals or NDP being competitive in two cities.

[mileslunn]

Leger came out with a Yukon poll and it was 33% NDP, 32% Yukon Party, and 31% Liberals https://www.whitehorsestar.com/News/liberals-have-no-comment-on-poll which seems a bit surprising as Yukon on both vaccinations and virus has done quite well so would have thought government would be polling highly.  Off course quite possible its a rogue poll as Yukon is always tough to poll and local candidates carry a lot of clout.

[mileslunn]

The NDP vote will surely be cannibalized in Toronto Centre  next election. Best to focus efforts on Davenport and PHP.

And Danforth, no?

Just regaining the traditional strongholds will be a victory of sorts.  The challenge gets imminently harder than that in the next tier seats of University-Rosedale (esp with Chrystia Freeland there), Toronto Centre and Beaches-East York.

There's a reason why Rosario Marchese etc. all lost, no. It's not just the NDP didn't perform well in 2019, the area is becoming more Liberal. I'd be surprised if they won any of them federally at current polling, though provincially I think the PHP, Danforth and Davenport are still fairly safe given the Liberal numbers there.

An NDP win in Davenport should not be a surprise - the NDP will be throwing everything at the riding in order to make up the 2500 votes it lost by.

A bit dubious to say downtown Toronto is trending Liberal. Perhaps it is, as it's becoming more expensive to live there. But, it's not the first time the NDP has been shutout for 2 elections straight in the region. In fact, they didn't win a single seat in Toronto between 1993 and 2000. And they only won a seat in 2004 because Jack himself was running in one, and he barely won it at that.

Marchese et al lost in 2014 because the party fractured as it pivoted to win over blue collar voters rather than focus on their progressive base. Meanwhile, the Liberals ran their most left wing provincial campaign in history. Trudeau has also run to the left of past Liberal campaigns too, so no wonder he was able keep those seats. It's not a given that he will continue to do so though, as progressives may begin growing weary of his fake wokeism.

I think downtown Toronto is your promiscuous progressive area and so big swings from Liberals to NDP and vice versa can happen easily.  Main goal of people here is to keep Tories out of office and they are largely indifferent to which of the two wins.  Off course if Liberals returned to the more centrist to centre-right like under Chretien/Martin then you might see these become more solidly NDP.  But as long as Liberals remain centre-left like they are under Trudeau and Wynne, I think they will go for whichever party is most likely to defeat Tories nationally and perhaps maybe go NDP if Liberals are ahead and no threat of a Tory win or a Tory win is a foregone conclusion.  It seems Liberals do best there when they are main alternative to Tories and polls are close.

[mileslunn]

I cannot think of any country in Western world where parties on right do well amongst Black community.  Pretty sure Tories despite doing poorly do better than GOP does and probably I suspect Black support for Tories in Canada is more in line with what it is in UK with Tories than for GOP in US.  In UK, Tories get about 20% Black support which is probably depending on election similar for Canada but obviously varies on how they do overall.  I suspect Doug Ford probably got in high 20s and NDP probably won Black vote in 2018 provincial election.

South Asians tend to be pretty Liberal although from exit polls I have seen, is somewhat a religious divide.  Don't know how Christians amongst them vote, but I know Sikhs and Muslims go mostly Liberal with NDP in second and Tories doing quite poorly whereas amongst Hindus, Tory support tends to be closer to whatever they have nationally/provincially. 

Amongst Italians, most are now second generation so I don't think they vote as a block like they once did.  Still probably favour Liberals, but certainly can go Conservative, see Vaughan.  Maybe not like US where they've swung heavily to GOP, see Staten Island.

Coalitions of 90s were much different than today.  Liberals back then generally had a strong lock on not just visible minorities, but also Catholics, Jewish, and linguistic minorities and that is much less case today.  Likewise NDP was strong amongst blue collar union members whereas today much of that has drifted over to Tories while in exchange NDP base is more your millennial, urban, unmarried, university educated types.  For Tories, they always did well in Alberta, but historically before rise of Reform Party, did much better with Bay Street types than they do today.  Like many countries, income used to play a much bigger role in voting patterns, whereas today it seems things like urban vs. rural; married with children vs. not; education level play a bigger role in determining vote than one's income.  Part could be back in 90s, top tax bracket kicked in at 60K vs. its present 215K so it hit a lot more people thus reducing taxes on top earners had a much wider appeal than it does today as number in top bracket is too small to really have any electoral impact whereas at 60K in 90s that was a large enough chunk of population it could swing several ridings. 

Also right moving from traditional fiscal conservatism to populism has alienated many upper middle income suburban types like you see in US, but allowed it to gain many working class voters it couldn't win historically.  Its why ridings like Oshawa, Essex, Niagara Centre, Brantford-Brant, Kootenay-Columbia are more likely to vote Tory than ridings like Burlington, Kanata-Carleton or North Vancouver.

[mileslunn]

Canada is in some ways the inverse of the U.S, where the liberals have the problem of geographic concentration.

You mean Liberal vote very efficient while Democrat inefficient.  If popular vote is tied, GOP wins in US while in Canada Liberals win.  Democrats tend to have more blowouts in solid blue states than GOP does in solid red states.  Yes on a county level, there are more 80%+ red counties, than 80%+ blue counties, but population wise, far more live in the 80%+ blue counties which are often large cities while most the 80%+ red counties are generally sparsely populated rural counties so may take up a lot of land, but not a lot of people live in them. 

For Canada by contrast, Tories tend to run up the margins in Alberta and Saskatchewan while Liberals win elsewhere but they aren't blowouts. 

Last election was almost a scenario of Liberals losing all their votes in right places and Tories gaining in all the wrong places.  Biggest shifts were Prairies and Atlantic Canada.  In Prairies Tories already held most seats so just ran up bigger margins.  In Atlantic Canada, Liberals won by 40 points so could lose a fair bit and still hold most seats, but ironically it was almost picture perfect as Liberals lost the most amount of votes they could have without losing too many seats.  Had Liberals dropped another five points, their seat losses would have been much bigger in Atlantic Canada.  Tories only won 4 seats, but came within 5 points in 11 seats.  Of the close seats, only one, West Nova broke their way, all the others broke for Liberals although Fredericton was close and broke for Greens.

Saw same in BC, Manitoba, and Ontario.  Liberals took biggest hit outside Lower Mainland where held few seats to begin with, but vote held up stronger in Lower Mainland than rest of province.  Tories saw biggest gains in BC Interior where already strong while minimal in Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island where they needed to gain seats.  In Manitoba, swing was much bigger in Rural Manitoba which Tories already held than Winnipeg.  Even in Ontario, Liberals lost ground in rural Ontario, but saw favourable swings in 905 belt. 

At same time those inefficiencies aren't necessarily permanent.  In 2012 in US, were votes tied, Obama would have won and in Canada in 2015 a tie vote would have been close to a tie in seats.

[mileslunn]

Something I have just found out that sounds absolutely ridiculous, like something Kafka would come up with, but it's actually true: throughout history, Canada has had 55 Superintendents-General of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Crown-Indigenous Relations or some variations thereof. Of these fifty-five ministers, a grand total of zero (0) were actually Indigenous.

I've often wondered why this is too; it seems so absurd to not be intentional. My best guess is that no government has wanted to seem like it was favouring one Indigenous group over another.

It's more about Indigenous representation in high-level Cabinet. Only 3 ever were in "real" Cabinet positions (excluding Ministers of State and other junior positions) and none currently.

It probably doesn't help that the ridings with the highest number of reserves typically go NDP and most of the ones that don't (mostly in BC/AB/SA) go Conservative. The Liberals don't exactly have a deep pool of strong candidates to draw from without JWR

Indigenous I think generally go pretty massively either NDP or Liberal but rarely Conservative.  Tories might do somewhat better amongst Metis but doubt they win them, but might as most in Prairies.  Now in Far north, Tories occasionally win indigenous vote like Leona Aguulak of Nunavut but in Far North generally people vote based on candidate not party.

[mileslunn]

For visible minorities, I would say it goes like this using stat can breakdowns.

Chinese: Voted heavily Liberal back in 90s, but Harper made big gains here and while some reversion, Tories based on results in Richmond, BC; Richmond Hill and Markham appear to do better than general public.  Also I believe those from Hong Kong more likely to vote Tory than those from Mainland China.  On balance I would say centre-right so if Tories drift too far right have trouble, but at same token Trudeau's move to left may be hurting party here.  Also generational divide as BC Liberals used to win big in Richmond, but NDP won 3 of 4 seats last provincial so I am guessing first generation mostly BC Liberal, but second generation probably vote same way other cohorts do.

South Asian: Sikhs and Muslims go mostly Liberal with NDP in second while Tories distant third.  For Hindus, Tories do better although Liberals still have edge but its why Mississauga is more competitive than Brampton.  Tories only win Brampton on strong splits and trends are definitely making it less winnable.  Surrey may elect Tory MPs, but mostly in southern and eastern parts which are still fairly white, not the parts with large South Asian population.

Black: Liberals followed by NDP with Tories likely struggling here.  Probably don't do as badly as GOP does, but still probably one of their worst groups.

Filipino: A mix but tend to be fairly socially conservative so like in US, Liberals probably have edge, but wouldn't be shocked if Tories get north of 30% amongst them. 

Arab: Liberal mostly followed by NDP.  This after First Nations is probably the weakest group for Tories even more so than Blacks.  Although religious divide too as Arab Christians, Tories probably get in 20s while amongst Muslims likely in single digits.

Southeast Asian: Mostly Vietnamese here and probably mostly Liberal but some NDP and Tories too.  They don't go as heavily Tory as they do GOP in US nor as much as they go L/NP in Australia.  In Australia I believe Vietnamese go heavily L/NP while in US usually GOP, although Obama in 2012 (not 2008) and Clinton in 2016 did win here, but flipped back to Trump 2020.

Latin American: Unlike US, few areas in large enough numbers to really say but probably Liberal and NDP.  I suspect percentage who vote Tory is lower than percentage of Hispanics who go GOP.

West Asian: Mostly Iranians here.  Heavily Liberal although in BC provincially they tend to go BC Liberal.  Generally above average income so bad for NDP, but Islamophobia amongst Conservatives is probably why they don't go Tory.  Yes Tories sometimes win North Shore although less so of recent while quite competitive in Richmond Hill, but I would suspect it is more large Chinese and to lesser extent Jewish community that helps Tories there, not Iranian.

Korean: Lean liberal, but some Tory support and some NDP support in BC, but in GTA mostly Liberal/Tory race.

Japanese: With most being 3rd generation or more, they vote same way whites do where they live and things like age, gender, education, urban vs. rural probably play a bigger role than ethnicity. 

Also with visible minorities location matters a lot too.

Quebec: Go massively Liberal as most federalists and that is probably the province Tories do worst amongst them, likely low teens maybe single digits.

Ontario:  More favourable to Tories than Quebec, but less so than BC and Alberta and likewise fewer would go NDP in Ontario than in BC.  Ford did well here in 2018 and Harper in 2011, while Howarth in 2018 but in most elections I would say Tory and NDP support is below what they get provincially and Liberal above.

Manitoba: NDP does really well here and Liberals too while Tories poorly.  Tory support in Winnipeg is mostly in south and west side which is the whitest part.  Also historically those parts mostly British, German and Dutch descent while Eastern Europeans settled more on north and eastern side and NDP at least historically tended to do well amongst Ukrainians and Polish while British, Dutch, and Germans would go Tory. 

Nova Scotia: Pretty sure Black community goes mostly Liberal or NDP

Saskatchewan: Visible minorities have only grown in numbers recently and aren't concentrated in anyone neighbourhood so tough to say.

Alberta: This is without question the province Tories do best amongst visible minorities.  Maybe not as well as overall, but usually come in first here.  And makes some sense, I imagine regardless of race, those with conservative views are probably more likely to move to Alberta than those with progressive views due to its political culture.  Likewise even in Alberta, Tories probably do better amongst minorities in Calgary than Edmonton.

British Columbia: Liberals do better than amongst general population, but don't have near the lock or dominance as they do in Central Canada.  Likewise both NDP and Tories tend to do better amongst visible minorities in BC than they do in Ontario.  BC while still has racism, has highest rate of intermarriage of any province.

Off course visible minorities are not monolithic and while may lean a certain way they still like any voter decide based on candidates, leader, and policy.

[mileslunn]

Southeast Asian: Mostly Vietnamese here and probably mostly Liberal but some NDP and Tories too.  They don't go as heavily Tory as they do GOP in US nor as much as they go L/NP in Australia.  In Australia I believe Vietnamese go heavily L/NP while in US usually GOP, although Obama in 2012 (not 2008) and Clinton in 2016 did win here, but flipped back to Trump 2020.

I've mentioned this before, but the Vietnamese population in Ottawa (used to) vote heavily NDP - at least the one's in Ottawa Centre. Paul Dewar's mother was responsible for bringing over a lot of Vietnamese refugees when she was mayor, so they voted for him en masse out of loyalty. Walking through Chinatown during an election, you would see Paul Dewar signs in every Vietnamese restaurant window.

Which is interesting as in US they usually vote GOP, although it appears Obama 2012 and Clinton 2016 won them.  Also go heavily L/NP in Australia.  On other hand in France, I believe they tend to vote quite heavily Socialist.

[mileslunn]

My view is Tories will be in opposition for some time.  O'Toole loses and moderates claim he was too right wing while base claims he was not right wing enough.  Lewis or someone further right chosen as next leader and faces an even bigger drubbing.  Depending on whether they learn or not maybe next election, but I am quite convinced party will not form government in next decade.  Reality is Canada is a centre-left country and even the entire spectrum of right is only around 30-40% of population, but much like left great variance and so it would be like uniting Liberals, NDP, and Greens.  Probably wouldn't be very cohesive but because left outnumbers right, right has no choice but to form a marriage of convenience.  Because PC and Reform wing are quite different and really don't belong under same banner except common enemy, that is why I think party is having so many difficulties.

Harper won due to combination of very weak Liberal leaders and was also a skilled tactician at keeping factions together but few have those skill sets.  And even he I don't think could win today as base is even more right wing than a decade ago while median voter has moved left so not sure gap can be bridged.  Realistically Tories need base to become less right wing and median voter to move right to have a shot and when that happens is anyone's guess.

[mileslunn]

Alberta (Leger):

NDP  40%
UCP  20%
Other  13%
Undecided  27%

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1370489228887527432?s=20

Angus-Reid showed a bit closer, but Kenney most certainly could lose next election and almost certainly would if an election were held today.  Edmonton will go massively NDP, NDP is slightly ahead in Calgary while UCP ahead in Rural Alberta.  Angus-Reid at least shows big age gap so millennial turnout key.  They show up, I believe Kenney loses.  They don't, he wins.  Nonetheless I believe Alberta is seeing a generational shift and by 2040 it will be a centre-left province with parties on left winning more often than parties on right as boomers die off.

[mileslunn]

What's going on in Alberta? If the high ALP vote is low information voters that are pro-Trudeau, it seems like those could be potential NDP voters. I'd imagine they're probably primarily urban voters. But is the unpopularity of the UCP a result of hubris, a right-wing party acting as if they can do anything and absolutely no wrong because they don't think they can lose in a right-wing province?

According to the latest Leger poll (PDF), the NDP is up 51-30 over the UCP. I don't recall the general sentiment after Notley's NDP losing power in 2019, but I was always happy that she was able to retain her leadership of the party. She didn't lose because she did anything wrong. It seems more like Albertans just wanted to pull things back to the right a bit, but still keep a strong opposition party. It seems to me like the NDP has an extraordinary opportunity to build itself into a strong centre-left party that Albertans find as an acceptable governing party in an effective two-party system. The era of the governing dynasty may be over in Alberta. It would be even more interesting if Alberta was entering a new phase of one-term governments and a sense of equilibrium. The NDP pulls too much to the left and is voted out and the UCP pulls too much to the right and is voted out and so on/vice versa.

Those 'low information' voters may not even vote come election time. Who knows. BC Conservative provincial poll numbers don't always translate into Liberal support. Same idea.

There is an absolute hubris with Kenney. He thinks it's impossible for the NDP to win with a united right. The man is a true believer, and Alberta is hurting as a result.

I know other parties love to kick out their leaders after a bad election result. But Notley is the Queen of the Alberta NDP. Sure she lost, but not much she could've done about a united right+the loss of the anti-Prentice protest vote. It's not like there is anyone who could replace her and do a better job. Albertans love her, they're just not social democrats.

If the UCP continues to be a far right whackadoodle party, and the NDP keeps Notley in charge, then yea, the province will reach equilibrium. I'm not so sure that will happen.

Right now Notley would win and I would not be shocked if she beats even a united right.  Edmonton is solidly NDP while Calgary votes progressive municipally and while more conservative than most cities, its more PC than it is Wildrose.  Only caveat is undecided voters seem to be heavily former UCP voters and it appears most UCP voters ditching party going elsewhere or undecided column not NDP.  UCP has lost about 30% of its voters from 2019, but only around 5% have migrated over to NDP.  By contrast NDP has close to 95% retention.

I think for NDP in Alberta, turnout will be key as their support skews heavily towards younger voters so do they show up or not.  It will also be convincing unhappy UCP voters to cross over or hope they just stay home and don't vote at all as always possibility dissatisfied UCP types when push comes to shove return to UCP.

Finally there is voter efficiency.  NDP really running up margins in Edmonton so lots of wasted votes there, but it appears UCP while ahead in Rural Alberta, isn't having blowouts like in past as a counter.   Still if I had to make a bet right now, mine is Notley narrowly knocks off Kenney in a fairly close race by sweeping Edmonton, winning 2/3 of Calgary seats and picking up a few elsewhere like Lesser Slave Lake, Sherwood Park, Lethbridge East, Banff-Kananaskis. 

Thing that should terrify progressives most is WIP only runs in safe rural ridings so UCP loses popular vote but it is a minority government.  In that case WIP will probably back UCP on certain conditions and those conditions will not please progressives.  But also if this looks possible, Notley can create argument if you are for Alberta remaining in Canada, NDP is only pro-Canada party and that might work as most Albertans are proud to be Canadians and aren't interested in separation or more autonomy.  They may dislike Trudeau, but also understand governments come and go too.

[mileslunn]

Actually don't buy O'Toole had any "bold" or substantive climate change policy at all.  Support pipelines, oppose the carbon tax but "I believe climate change is real."

Basically a position that pleases few.

He could in theory bring in a cap and trade like Quebec has and Ontario had under Wynne as he never promised not to bring in that and while not as effective as a carbon tax never mind more big government vs. market oriented, that is one possibility.  If he promises that, then he will have credibility or perhaps an industry carbon tax but not on personal level.  But anything short of those two and promise will be empty and look bad.

[mileslunn]

How large is the climate denialist constituency in the Prairies?

Notice the Angus Reid has "another party" at 10-11% in Alberta and Sask.

Actually even there a minority, just very vocal.  Prairies may be more conservative than rest of Canada, but not nearly as right wing as stereotype.  Notley is very critical of Tories federally yet fairly popular in Alberta, way more so than O'Toole or Kenney.  Many who claim most in Prairies support this are stuck in past and don't realize Alberta is very different today than 90s.  Province actually isn't that conservative, just not as progressive as other provinces.

[mileslunn]

I can't see a Calgary revolt against the Eastern Conservative establishment for being "too liberal" like in the 90s.  Maybe in rural Alberta and Sask. - but even there most likely to stay Conservative even if somewhat begrudgingly. 

I would argue median Calgary voter is actually closest to old PCs, not UCP, Wildrose or Reform wing of Tories.  Now for a large urban area, that is still to right of everywhere else as in most urban areas, median voter ranges from Chretien/Martin Liberals to NDP type socialist depending on which city.  Some on right who haven't adjusted with times still think Reform ideas popular in Calgary but forget much of the city either wasn't born there, not old enough to vote or didn't live in Alberta. 

As for rural areas, I doubt they revolt, but even if they did, Tories win by such large margins no risk of Liberals or NDP coming up the middle whereas in Edmonton, Calgary, Regina & Saskatoon, a split on right probably would cost Tories seats there.  At same time perhaps like Buffalo Party in SK or BC Conservatives, the right wing breakaway would get in low single digits so little impact and only get in double digits in rural areas.

[mileslunn]

Toronto has a record number of COVID cases, including overwhelmed ICUs, despite being in lockdown for over four months.  The measures in place simply do not work.  End the lockdown!

Actually quite the opposite.  Reason for problems is lockdowns only half hearted.  Re-opening like Florida would be political suicide.  Canadians unlike Americans tend to have a much higher deference to authority and generally put common good over individual freedom.  Rugged individualism and freedom trumps everything else is a very American idea and Canada has for most of its history generally been a mix of Red Toryism (similar to One Nation conservatism in UK) and social Liberalism and social democracy.  Libertarianism has always existed, especially in Alberta, but also very much a minority opinion and much less popular than 20 years ago, although even then still a minority opinion.

[mileslunn]

National Post pleads for unity:

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/np-view-conservatives-must-unite-behind-erin-otoole-if-they-are-to-defeat-trudeau

Its been a decade since Tories federally last won an election and it seems since then base has become more right wing while median voter more left wing so I believe the gap between two has become so large its not possible to appeal to both.  O'Toole is sort of all over map as trying to appeal to both but finding not appealing to either.  When Harper was leader, appealing to both was tough, but a skilled leader could do it.  Harper did it by staying close to centre on big issues but going right on peripheral ones to fire up base and hope public wouldn't care.  That worked then, but today median voter is now on left not dead centre while base has gone from right to even further right.