Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Doesn't Trudeau also claim to be a practicing Catholic ?

He does, yes, but the extent to which he actually practices Catholicism is hard to say. Pierre was very open about his faith and we know he attended mass weekly, but with Justin it's a little more vague. It's not surprising that he doesn't talk about his faith that much though, it's not considered a good look for a Canadian politician to be overtly religious, especially in Quebec where by now, the openly religious pre-quiet revolution generation like P.E. Trudeau and Chretien are mostly dead and now almost every Francophone Quebecer under 80 is at most a "Christmas and Easter Mass Catholic"

[mileslunn]

https://globalnews.ca/news/7991602/ipsos-poll-election-liberals-tories-june/ more bad news for Tories.  Yes good news for Liberals although 38% while higher than last election, is hardly high for Liberals by historical standards.  And idea pandemic bad for opposition is not case with NDP and BQ, only Tories and Greens.  And even Greens with trouble don't seem to be doing too bad but often polls put them higher than they get on election day.  By contrast Tories are on track for worst showing.  I guess question is could different leader and different policies give different results or do Canadians just dislike conservatism in general and want a more progressive direction?  I think a bit of both.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://globalnews.ca/news/7991602/ipsos-poll-election-liberals-tories-june/ more bad news for Tories.  Yes good news for Liberals although 38% while higher than last election, is hardly high for Liberals by historical standards.  And idea pandemic bad for opposition is not case with NDP and BQ, only Tories and Greens.  And even Greens with trouble don't seem to be doing too bad but often polls put them higher than they get on election day.  By contrast Tories are on track for worst showing.  I guess question is could different leader and different policies give different results or do Canadians just dislike conservatism in general and want a more progressive direction?  I think a bit of both.

By historic standards 38% for the LPC isn't that great, but it's worth keeping in mind that The NDP, the Greens, and the Bloc on the left, as well as the CPC on the right, are all primarily trying to win over Liberal supporters. With that in mind, it's downright impressive that the Liberals are still dominating CanPoli instead of crumbling.

I think the Tories' problem is that they lack a real raison d'être right now. The NDP's is the same as always - criticize the Liberals from the left and advocate social democratic policies. This was a little tricky pre-pandemic, but since the pandemic struck they have a very clear message to go for. The Bloc struggled with raison d'être in the final years of Duceppe and most of Trudeau's first term, but Blanchet has reinvented them as kind of a CAQ-adjacent Quebec populist party that advocates Quebec interests in Ottawa.

What is the CPC's raison d'être? Fiscal conservatism and austerity? Yeah, that's not what people want at this juncture at all. Middle class interests? The Liberals have that on lock. Business interests? Ditto, other than some sectors of the corporate world like oil and gas, but environmentalism is a bigger vote winner than o&g interests nowadays. Social conservatism? Yeah, not in a country like Canada. Populism/nativism/anti-immigration? There's probably more votes to be won with this approach than some may think, but it also rallies support behind the Liberals. Anti-corruption? This is usually the Liberals' biggest weak spot after all, but the shady practices of Tory premiers like Ford and Kenney hurt the CPC's credibility here.

Really, there doesn't seem to be a winning issue for the CPC at this point, and the party has no idea what to do. Now O'Toole's trying to shore up the vote with soft nationalism/populism on issues like "cancel Canada day" and even there he's overplaying his hand by talking about it to a nauseating extent (plus, Trudeau's savvy enough not to take a full on cancel Canada day position, but a more nuanced "we should celebrate our country but also acknowledge our imperfections" position).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

And expanding on my previous reply, really the only "lane" left for the CPC is to be the anti-Trudeau party. This did win them the popular vote in 2019 after all, but that election demonstrated that suburban Ontario and most metropolitan areas broadly were fairly content with this government, and anti-Trudeau views in regional Quebec mostly manifested itself as Quebec nationalism, not Canadian conservatism.

They're still the anti-Trudeau party, but Trudeau's a lot more popular now than in 2019. So even that imperfect and electorally difficult message is much weaker now.

[mileslunn]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/182-unmarked-graves-discovered-near-residential-school-in-b-c-s-interior-first-nation-says/ar-AALD7Wx?ocid=msedgntp I think we will see a lot more.  I bet the final numbers will be several thousand.  While no easy solution, probably makes First Nations issues and reconciliation a much higher priority than in past which is a good thing.

[Don Vito Corleone]

By all accounts, the Liberals are a declining party over the course of Canadian history. Long gone are the days of inevitable Liberal majorities and sweeping the entirety of Quebec, the LPC has an increasingly narrow path to victory these days. The provincial Liberal brand has all but collapsed in the prairies, their future in Ontario and Quebec looks uncertain, and the BC Liberals are effectively successors of the Social Credit movement. And yet, their principal opponents at the federal level consistently struggle to capitalize on it.

This is something which I think is forgotten too much in discussions about a 1000 year Grit Reich. This is not the Liberal Party of Louis St. Laurent. I often point out to my friends when discussing this that even with everything going on in their main opposition party, the Liberals are still only at about 50-50 odds to win a majority. I know I say this a lot but I really think some people are going way too far in some of the things they say about the future strength of the Liberal Party.

[mileslunn]

By all accounts, the Liberals are a declining party over the course of Canadian history. Long gone are the days of inevitable Liberal majorities and sweeping the entirety of Quebec, the LPC has an increasingly narrow path to victory these days. The provincial Liberal brand has all but collapsed in the prairies, their future in Ontario and Quebec looks uncertain, and the BC Liberals are effectively successors of the Social Credit movement. And yet, their principal opponents at the federal level consistently struggle to capitalize on it.

This is something which I think is forgotten too much in discussions about a 1000 year Grit Reich. This is not the Liberal Party of Louis St. Laurent. I often point out to my friends when discussing this that even with everything going on in their main opposition party, the Liberals are still only at about 50-50 odds to win a majority. I know I say this a lot but I really think some people are going way too far in some of the things they say about the future strength of the Liberal Party.

Agree Liberals aren't as strong as some think but real question is what is alternative.  NDP has never formed government and despite some decent poll numbers, they are a long ways away from it.  Tories are at rock bottom and show no sign of being competitive anytime soon.  If O'Toole loses, most likely party shifts further to right thus ensuring a loss in 2025 of likely bigger proportions.  So I think Liberals are in good shape to remain natural governing party not because people love party, but simply there isn't a realistic alternative.  Yes when people get mad enough they will coalesce around some other party but winning only when people get really angry at Liberals is sort of like NDP in BC until recently and now in some ways Ontario PCs.  Means long stretches in opposition with brief wins but don't last long.

[mileslunn]

https://globalnews.ca/news/7991602/ipsos-poll-election-liberals-tories-june/ more bad news for Tories.  Yes good news for Liberals although 38% while higher than last election, is hardly high for Liberals by historical standards.  And idea pandemic bad for opposition is not case with NDP and BQ, only Tories and Greens.  And even Greens with trouble don't seem to be doing too bad but often polls put them higher than they get on election day.  By contrast Tories are on track for worst showing.  I guess question is could different leader and different policies give different results or do Canadians just dislike conservatism in general and want a more progressive direction?  I think a bit of both.

By historic standards 38% for the LPC isn't that great, but it's worth keeping in mind that The NDP, the Greens, and the Bloc on the left, as well as the CPC on the right, are all primarily trying to win over Liberal supporters. With that in mind, it's downright impressive that the Liberals are still dominating CanPoli instead of crumbling.

I think the Tories' problem is that they lack a real raison d'être right now. The NDP's is the same as always - criticize the Liberals from the left and advocate social democratic policies. This was a little tricky pre-pandemic, but since the pandemic struck they have a very clear message to go for. The Bloc struggled with raison d'être in the final years of Duceppe and most of Trudeau's first term, but Blanchet has reinvented them as kind of a CAQ-adjacent Quebec populist party that advocates Quebec interests in Ottawa.

What is the CPC's raison d'être? Fiscal conservatism and austerity? Yeah, that's not what people want at this juncture at all. Middle class interests? The Liberals have that on lock. Business interests? Ditto, other than some sectors of the corporate world like oil and gas, but environmentalism is a bigger vote winner than o&g interests nowadays. Social conservatism? Yeah, not in a country like Canada. Populism/nativism/anti-immigration? There's probably more votes to be won with this approach than some may think, but it also rallies support behind the Liberals. Anti-corruption? This is usually the Liberals' biggest weak spot after all, but the shady practices of Tory premiers like Ford and Kenney hurt the CPC's credibility here.

Really, there doesn't seem to be a winning issue for the CPC at this point, and the party has no idea what to do. Now O'Toole's trying to shore up the vote with soft nationalism/populism on issues like "cancel Canada day" and even there he's overplaying his hand by talking about it to a nauseating extent (plus, Trudeau's savvy enough not to take a full on cancel Canada day position, but a more nuanced "we should celebrate our country but also acknowledge our imperfections" position).

I guess real question is are there any issues Canadians lean right on.  Usually we've been a mix leaning left on things like health care, environment, social issues, while right on issues like economy, debt/deficit, taxes so parties on left would focus on former and parties on right on latter.  It seems now Canadians are left wing across the board so Tories don't have an issue they can focus on.  British Tories at least as Brits turned away from austerity shifted to Brexit and cultural issues where Brits still lean right thus why doing well.  Long term if Canadians are left wing across the board, that pretty much means Tories cannot win.

Now its possible by 2025, that will change.  After all if spending isn't pared down, debt/deficits will reach point of being an issue.  And likely Liberals will respond with tax hikes not spending cuts.  While probably will start with some tax hike on rich, there simply aren't enough of them to cover costs, never mind with more working remotely some will just move elsewhere.  So I guess that is the question is fiscal conservatism permanently underwater or will as pandemic fades, it start to come back?

And finally, could Tories perhaps run on just opposing big spending and hope Liberals go too much to left and try and run on idea they are centrist party who won't raise taxes and will keep and protect all existing programs, but won't create any new ones?  Any thoughts on that.  As I think by nature Trudeau is fairly left wing and its more been others in party who have pushed him to hold the line, but he would like to move party more to left and with polls he might be able to make case to do so which he couldn't in past. 

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/182-unmarked-graves-discovered-near-residential-school-in-b-c-s-interior-first-nation-says/ar-AALD7Wx?ocid=msedgntp I think we will see a lot more.  I bet the final numbers will be several thousand.  While no easy solution, probably makes First Nations issues and reconciliation a much higher priority than in past which is a good thing.

Just popping in to note that the Residential schools issue would probably be narrative #2 if Trudeau called an election right now, after COVID of course. This is arguably why I wouldn't call an election right now, cause the stage appears to be set for an election where the Tories are not in competition for power, which then opens the door for more Libs to go NDP (plenty of reasons, but the NDP tend to have the best brand on First Nation issues), which then denies Trudeau his majority and puts him back at square one.

[2952-0-0]

There has been a spate of church burnings, and that has a very dark history in this part of the world. It took eight churches to burn before Trudeau stated these acts are unacceptable.

I think this guy is a jerk, but I agree with him here:

https://twitter.com/kinsellawarren/status/1410324914427604992

These arson attacks are getting a backlash from many moderate types, who are often not religious at all. They recognize these as a threat to public order, and Trudeau's slow response as emboldening these attacks. For someone like Trudeau, being accused of neglecting public order will be lethal, far more than attacks about socks, selfies, SNC Lavalin, or WE.

[Estrella]

182 unmarked graves discovered near residential school in B.C.'s Interior, First Nation says

Three schools, 1148 graves. The residential school system operated a total of 130 institutions.

[CumbrianLefty]

Who are the suspects for this church arsonism?

[mileslunn]

Who are the suspects for this church arsonism?

None yet so that is real question.  But quite possible just vandals looking for an excuse so who knows.

[Benjamin Frank]

There has been a spate of church burnings, and that has a very dark history in this part of the world. It took eight churches to burn before Trudeau stated these acts are unacceptable.

I think this guy is a jerk, but I agree with him here:

https://twitter.com/kinsellawarren/status/1410324914427604992
These arson attacks are getting a backlash from many moderate types, who are often not religious at all. They recognize these as a threat to public order, and Trudeau's slow response as emboldening these attacks. For someone like Trudeau, being accused of neglecting public order will be lethal, far more than attacks about socks, selfies, SNC Lavalin, or WE.

To be fair, it took Trudeau three days to call out the fires.  I don't know that it was that slow.

If politics is going to be played over fires and deaths, looking at fire destruction of the town of Lytton and the heat dome over the west,  I think the Conservatives inaction on global warming is a willful neglect that is going to be far more lethal.

[2952-0-0]

https://twitter.com/Siksika_Nation/status/1410795843100155906?s=19

A Caucasian male has been arrested as a suspected arsonist. This was on a reserve where a church was burned. I won't jump into conclusions, but it's fitting into my gut feeling.

[Benjamin Frank]

From the latest polls of a week ago, I think this provides some evidence to not read too much into the regional breakdowns of any single poll:

Leger
British Columbia
Liberal: 43%
Conservative: 34%
NDP: 20%
Green: 11%

Abacus Data
British Columbia
NDP: 37%
Liberal: 30%
Conservative: 27%
Green: 5%

Leger
Manitoba/Saskatchewan
Conservative: 47%
NDP: 27%
Liberal: 19%
Green: 5%

Abacus Data
Manitoba/Saskatchewan
Liberal: 34%
Conservative: 33%
NDP: 25%
Green: 5%

At least the NDP and the Greens are consistent here.

Of course, this is the most extreme difference in the polling.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.quintenews.com/2021/06/30/sloan-to-seek-re-election/

Add Hastings-Lennox & Addington to the Liberal column, I guess.

Former H-L&A Liberal MP Mike Bossio is running for re-election too. He lost the riding to Sloan in 2019 by a 4.3pt/2247 vote margin. The CPC do not yet have a candidate there.

CPC numbers in Ontario are down as is, and Sloan will be splitting the right in that riding. This makes Bossio's path to victory a lot simpler.

[mileslunn]

https://www.quintenews.com/2021/06/30/sloan-to-seek-re-election/

Add Hastings-Lennox & Addington to the Liberal column, I guess.

Former H-L&A Liberal MP Mike Bossio is running for re-election too. He lost the riding to Sloan in 2019 by a 4.3pt/2247 vote margin. The CPC do not yet have a candidate there.

CPC numbers in Ontario are down as is, and Sloan will be splitting the right in that riding. This makes Bossio's path to victory a lot simpler.

I suspect Sloan gets under 5% so at end of day I doubt he makes much difference.  But yeah Liberals probably re-take it although normally this riding is pretty solidly Conservative and not even close, but with how bad Tories are doing, Liberals probably gain this along with many others they normally wouldn't.  Heck I think O'Toole and Poilievre are likely to lose their seats and also see a few Liberal pickups in Alberta.  Saskatchewan probably only province they get shut out of, but could see NDP winning a seat or two there.

[beesley]

If that's likely, Poilievre losing would be satisfying. Alleslev is surely a goner too? And the Tories would lose nearly half their seats in BC, surely.

[mileslunn]

If that's likely, Poilievre losing would be satisfying. Alleslev is surely a goner too? And the Tories would lose nearly half their seats in BC, surely.

BC is more divided between Lower Mainland and Interior so probably lose all theirs west of Abbotsford but keep most east of that.  In Ontario lose all those anywhere near metro areas but hold the more rural ones so get around 20-25 seats there down from 36.  BC around 8-12 seats.  Even in Alberta I see them falling below 30 seats but probably still north of 25 seats.  Unfortunately Lewis wins her seat in Haldimand-Norfolk thus making her frontrunner.  Michelle Rempel holds her two but only because she switched seats, had she run in Calgary-Confederation, I believe she would lose hers.  But if enough strategic voting and federal Liberals tie O'Toole to Kenney, an outside chance she loses hers.

[Benjamin Frank]

If that's likely, Poilievre losing would be satisfying. Alleslev is surely a goner too? And the Tories would lose nearly half their seats in BC, surely.

The NDP and the Liberals (and the Greens in some ridings) could split the votes enough to allow the Conservatives to keep most/all of their ridings. Of course, that's if the election were held now, in 2-3 months, who knows?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

If that's likely, Poilievre losing would be satisfying. Alleslev is surely a goner too? And the Tories would lose nearly half their seats in BC, surely.

Poilievre's a tough one. The Liberals were counting on the crazy population growth there (eligible voters went up by 15k from 2015 to 2019), but the Liberals still lost vote share and on balance Carleton had a 2.5% swing to the CPC. Even though Carleton is within Ottawa city limits, it's still largely exurban and rural and has the "Upper Ottawa valley conservatism" thing going on.

Alleslev is likely a goner, based on recent Ontario-wide polling. Her saving grace was probably the Chinese-Canadian community in the Richmond Hill part of her riding (interestingly, the more WASP areas of York Region like Aurora and Newmarket are voting more Liberal like the Italian and Persian parts, while the Chinese and Jewish areas increasingly make up the bulk of the Tory base there). The Tories heavily targeted the middle-class Chinese vote with tough-on-crime/drugs messaging in 2015 and 2019 to great effect and they may do so again. But Alleslev's riding just needs an ever-so-slight nudge to fall into the Liberal column.

BC is hard to say tbh. Recent polling for the CPC hasn't been so good in BC, but polls always seem to underestimate the Tories west of the Ontario/Manitoba border. I'd assume the interior and the exurban parts of the Fraser Valley (Abbotsford, Langley, Mission) stay Tory, while South Surrey, Port Moody, Cloverdale etc are likely to go Liberal. The Richmond ridings are hard to say because of the aforementioned Chinese vote who don't usually fall neatly into the patterns of national politics, but I'd assume Richmond Centre stays Tory while Richmond-Steveston is a toss up. But with the recent extreme weather events in BC, especially in the interior, you'd assume climate change will be a much bigger issue there this time around, which does not bode well for the CPC.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.quintenews.com/2021/06/30/sloan-to-seek-re-election/

Add Hastings-Lennox & Addington to the Liberal column, I guess.

Former H-L&A Liberal MP Mike Bossio is running for re-election too. He lost the riding to Sloan in 2019 by a 4.3pt/2247 vote margin. The CPC do not yet have a candidate there.

CPC numbers in Ontario are down as is, and Sloan will be splitting the right in that riding. This makes Bossio's path to victory a lot simpler.

I suspect Sloan gets under 5% so at end of day I doubt he makes much difference.  But yeah Liberals probably re-take it although normally this riding is pretty solidly Conservative and not even close, but with how bad Tories are doing, Liberals probably gain this along with many others they normally wouldn't.  Heck I think O'Toole and Poilievre are likely to lose their seats and also see a few Liberal pickups in Alberta.  Saskatchewan probably only province they get shut out of, but could see NDP winning a seat or two there.

I think Sloan does a bit better than that, maybe in the 5-10% range, but the Tories will try to shore up most of the right-wing vote with a "vote Sloan, elect Bossio" message, which isn't such an unthinkable idea considering Bossio did win it in 2015.

although normally this riding is pretty solidly Conservative and not even close, but with how bad Tories are doing, Liberals probably gain this along with many others they normally wouldn't.

Not sure about this statement. The Liberals won this riding in 2015, and lost quite narrowly in 2019. Even if Liberal numbers stay the same as in 2019, Sloan would only have to take around 5% of the CPC vote to give it to the Liberals. With current numbers this is a toss-up, Sloan or no Sloan. With him running, I think we can safely call it "Lean Liberal"

[mileslunn]

https://www.quintenews.com/2021/06/30/sloan-to-seek-re-election/

Add Hastings-Lennox & Addington to the Liberal column, I guess.

Former H-L&A Liberal MP Mike Bossio is running for re-election too. He lost the riding to Sloan in 2019 by a 4.3pt/2247 vote margin. The CPC do not yet have a candidate there.

CPC numbers in Ontario are down as is, and Sloan will be splitting the right in that riding. This makes Bossio's path to victory a lot simpler.

I suspect Sloan gets under 5% so at end of day I doubt he makes much difference.  But yeah Liberals probably re-take it although normally this riding is pretty solidly Conservative and not even close, but with how bad Tories are doing, Liberals probably gain this along with many others they normally wouldn't.  Heck I think O'Toole and Poilievre are likely to lose their seats and also see a few Liberal pickups in Alberta.  Saskatchewan probably only province they get shut out of, but could see NDP winning a seat or two there.

I think Sloan does a bit better than that, maybe in the 5-10% range, but the Tories will try to shore up most of the right-wing vote with a "vote Sloan, elect Bossio" message, which isn't such an unthinkable idea considering Bossio did win it in 2015.

although normally this riding is pretty solidly Conservative and not even close, but with how bad Tories are doing, Liberals probably gain this along with many others they normally wouldn't.

Not sure about this statement. The Liberals won this riding in 2015, and lost quite narrowly in 2019. Even if Liberal numbers stay the same as in 2019, Sloan would only have to take around 5% of the CPC vote to give it to the Liberals. With current numbers this is a toss-up, Sloan or no Sloan. With him running, I think we can safely call it "Lean Liberal"

I guess more saying pretty rural and most of rural Ontario usually goes Conservative, but with how bad things are in Ontario now, I suspect some rural will flip not just this riding but a number of others too.  I've heard rumours internals on seats are absolutely devastating and worse than many in public realize.  Thus why my suggestion Tories don't form government in next decade is something I feel more and more confident about as each day goes by.  SoCon wing will take over if they lose bad enough so its why I don't see party coming back anytime soon.

[mileslunn]

Back in 2013 Ibbitson and Bricker wrote a book called Big shift which more or less argued 2011 was permanent re-alignment and Tories would become natural governing party.  Looks like they were dead wrong.  Obviously over next century, lots can happen ranging from following.

1.  Tories win about half the time which in last 30-40 years that is about what it has been
2.  Liberals retain their dominance as natural governing party with occasional Tory wins when Liberals overstay welcome, but more like most of 20th century
3.  Tories become a perennial third party and swap roles with NDP and win some seats but never form government again.

Which will happen too early but the idea of Tories becoming new natural governing party was silly.  Canada has always had a centre-left lean and will occasionally tilts right, polls have pretty much without exception since 2000 shown fairly centrist, but more lean left than lean right thus Tories becoming natural governing party was really always a pipe dream.  Maybe possible long term but was going to be an uphill battle.