Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[mileslunn]

Abacus out today and it is 37% Liberal, 25% Conservative, 20% NDP.  Nanos has similar and Tories sub 25 while NDP not far behind.  With Tories imploding, I think they can forget about winning, I think falling to third place at least in votes (probably not seats) is not as far fetched as some think.  I think this could be beginning of end for party.  If they lose bad enough, its not like they have their own Justin Trudeau waiting in the wings.  Never mind public viewpoints are decidedly negative of Tories while more positive of Singh so idea Tories don't win again and future is Liberal vs. NDP is not as far fetched as some think.  Maybe not likely, but not impossible.  Either way I see a big shift left in Canada with Canada emerging as most left wing country in West.  Yes one can argue over degree, but right gaining in most places (Europe) or flat US.  Nowhere is it imploding like Canada.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/BenWoodfinden/status/1412467645111230467

The recent string of church burnings now includes an attempted arson with people inside. That could have gotten very ugly very quickly.

[mileslunn]

Someone could die from this.  This is not good and while I don't think you can blame any politicians needs to be condemned.  Fires when started can easily spread much further, especially in Summer and if this continues it is not a matter of if, but a matter of when someone dies.

[mileslunn]

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/life/article-should-you-move-to-a-small-town-in-retirement/?utm_campaign=sophi-pop&utm_medium=post&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwAR1ivsKD18V4P0ED_BtEgD2CHE4BshYbHinsjAe_0kZRMCFX2Oxz8FKv6vo this is interesting and wonder if with more working remotely and high housing prices, we see an increase in those living in rural areas for a change.  Be interested on the political impact.  Will this make rural areas more progressive as former urban voters bring their progressive values with them.  Some signs this happened in US, see Nevada County, California; Door County, Wisconsin; Leelanau County, Michigan; and Columbia County, New York which are all largely rural but lots of former city dwellers and used to vote GOP but all went for Biden.  In case of Door and Leelanau counties, I am almost positive Trump would have held both had it not been for pandemic which caused many city white collar workers who work remotely to re-locate there.  Be interesting if we see same here, particularly in Ontario I could see a few rural surprises for Liberals thanks to pandemic and more working remotely. 

By same time if rural population grows, will that long term help Conservatives as have more clout or will it more likely make rural areas more favourable to Liberals.  I tend to think latter, but mostly for rural areas near metro areas; ones more removed become even more conservative as it seems most from urban areas like areas close to metro areas and also have nice comfortable slow living, now largely farmland several hundred km away from nearest city.  In particular rural areas with lots of lakes which seem to attract ex city folks I could see becoming places where Liberals win.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Abacus out today and it is 37% Liberal, 25% Conservative, 20% NDP.  Nanos has similar and Tories sub 25 while NDP not far behind.  With Tories imploding, I think they can forget about winning, I think falling to third place at least in votes (probably not seats) is not as far fetched as some think.  I think this could be beginning of end for party.  If they lose bad enough, its not like they have their own Justin Trudeau waiting in the wings.  Never mind public viewpoints are decidedly negative of Tories while more positive of Singh so idea Tories don't win again and future is Liberal vs. NDP is not as far fetched as some think.  Maybe not likely, but not impossible.  Either way I see a big shift left in Canada with Canada emerging as most left wing country in West.  Yes one can argue over degree, but right gaining in most places (Europe) or flat US.  Nowhere is it imploding like Canada.

Yeah there's no doubt about the Tory implosion now. The extent to which this reflects a huge shift to the left, versus the Tories just being a garbage party with repeatedly-awful leaders, lack of any serious vision, held hostage by a reactionary element, all that is more up for debate.

The BC-ization of Canadian federal politics would be interesting, even more interesting would be a 25x3 split of Canadian politics. Here's what I mean:

- Tories never recover from the current numbers and 25% becomes their baseline
- The NDP gains among left-liberals who see the NDP growing and want a bolder vision in power. The NDP hits a ceiling at around 25%, because the more radical elements keep the centrists out
- The Liberals hold on to around 25%, made up of core Liberal supporters

The remaining 25% are swing voters, Bloquistes, Greens, fringe party voters, etc.

This wouldn't be that crazy either. The long term outlook of Canpoli has seen the big two slowly decline in power as smaller parties, most notably the CCF-NDP and more recently the Bloc, have entered parliament and chipped away at the big boys. It's weird because theoretically FPTP is supposed to have the opposite effect, but for whatever reason, Canadians have started looking at smaller parties. That the Liberals won government with 33% of the vote, and that the biggest party of that election didn't even get 35%, is a good demonstration of this fragmentation. The fact that the Liberals are only 50/50 on a majority despite their chief opponent imploding is another.

We might even see a multi-party proportional representation type system if this trend bears out. It's not that hard to imagine a fragmented multiparty pizza parliament in Canada, since all parties are big tent parties representing diverse interest groups.

[mileslunn]

Abacus out today and it is 37% Liberal, 25% Conservative, 20% NDP.  Nanos has similar and Tories sub 25 while NDP not far behind.  With Tories imploding, I think they can forget about winning, I think falling to third place at least in votes (probably not seats) is not as far fetched as some think.  I think this could be beginning of end for party.  If they lose bad enough, its not like they have their own Justin Trudeau waiting in the wings.  Never mind public viewpoints are decidedly negative of Tories while more positive of Singh so idea Tories don't win again and future is Liberal vs. NDP is not as far fetched as some think.  Maybe not likely, but not impossible.  Either way I see a big shift left in Canada with Canada emerging as most left wing country in West.  Yes one can argue over degree, but right gaining in most places (Europe) or flat US.  Nowhere is it imploding like Canada.

Yeah there's no doubt about the Tory implosion now. The extent to which this reflects a huge shift to the left, versus the Tories just being a garbage party with repeatedly-awful leaders, lack of any serious vision, held hostage by a reactionary element, all that is more up for debate.

The BC-ization of Canadian federal politics would be interesting, even more interesting would be a 25x3 split of Canadian politics. Here's what I mean:

- Tories never recover from the current numbers and 25% becomes their baseline
- The NDP gains among left-liberals who see the NDP growing and want a bolder vision in power. The NDP hits a ceiling at around 25%, because the more radical elements keep the centrists out
- The Liberals hold on to around 25%, made up of core Liberal supporters

The remaining 25% are swing voters, Bloquistes, Greens, fringe party voters, etc.

This wouldn't be that crazy either. The long term outlook of Canpoli has seen the big two slowly decline in power as smaller parties, most notably the CCF-NDP and more recently the Bloc, have entered parliament and chipped away at the big boys. It's weird because theoretically FPTP is supposed to have the opposite effect, but for whatever reason, Canadians have started looking at smaller parties. That the Liberals won government with 33% of the vote, and that the biggest party of that election didn't even get 35%, is a good demonstration of this fragmentation. The fact that the Liberals are only 50/50 on a majority despite their chief opponent imploding is another.

We might even see a multi-party proportional representation type system if this trend bears out. It's not that hard to imagine a fragmented multiparty pizza parliament in Canada, since all parties are big tent parties representing diverse interest groups.

Most countries with PR are certainly seeing this.  In Germany, it used to be both main parties generally got over 40% while now one is in teens (SPD) and other CDU/CSU in 20s.  Same in Spain where two main parties ranged from 38-45% support, but now both under 30%.  Netherlands even worse as at one time winning party used to get around 30%, now winning struggles to hit 20%.  But those all use PR, of those with majoritarian systems not really seeing this.  Certainly not in US.  Even UK not really as Tories still north of 40% and Labour despite troubles still over 30% unlike our Tories.  Australia due to ranked system, you see it sometimes on first ballot, but runoff more or less take care of that.  And in France you see it a lot in first round, but second round obviously not although unlike past is no longer Conservatives (whatever name they use) vs. Socialists like it once was.

At provincial level though seeing this much less.  In fact in Alberta you are now seeing non-Tories much more united than they were pre-2015.  In Saskatchewan, Saskatchewan party has gotten over 60% three times in a row.  Quebec you are sort of seeing this but more for opposition as seems PQ and PLQ declining while CAQ gaining and QS uncertain.

What though is weird is having a 75/25 split left vs. right is very rare.  You have some subnational places like Wallonia, Catalonia, and Scotland where more lopsided but no countries I can think of today.  Yes Sweden and Finland through much of 20th century often had right around 25%, but this century averaged more around 40%.  Thus my idea Canada most left wing country.  Yes Liberals are far from as left wing as many parties elsewhere, but then again most parties left of Liberals are in the tank and doing quite poorly elsewhere.  Centre-right maybe a bit more moderate in some countries but still difference big enough that it cannot be explained exclusively be leader and policies and must be ideology too.

[mileslunn]

Other question is what caused such a big shift in last decade as doesn't seem to be happening elsewhere or at least not near to same extent in Canada.  15 point drop in Tories pretty steep and not as though any other ideological similar parties they can go for.  Nor can you blame it fully on demographic churn as population hasn't shifted that much.  At least with Liberal implosion in 2011 made sense as Blue Liberals went to Tories and progressive ones to NDP and then with Trudeau came back.  Thus NDP returned to traditional levels and Tories in 2015 and 2019 dropped a bit but still remained close to long term average (35% is about their average post WWII support with 30% low end and 40% high end) but now they are at record lows.  No other party on right and Liberals further from Tories than in past so question is what caused such a big shift left?

I can think of two potential reasons

1.  Income Inequality: Occupy Wall Street came just after Harper got majority and that brought issue to spotlight whereas before was not a top issue.  Definitely made things easier to left as most solutions to reduce this involve bigger government and left wing policies.  Yet despite this, don't see a huge backlash against it elsewhere despite fact Canada's levels of inequality are pretty close to OECD average.  Only possibility is being next door to US, where really bad, it makes people more concerned than those an ocean away while US culture is much more built on pull up your boot straps mentality while Canada is more like Europe that government needs to prevent inequality from getting too high, but bigger concern here than Europe.

2.  Climate Change: That seems to be a big one here and perhaps maybe that is primary reason.  In Europe, most centre-right parties support action on climate change so they don't have that against them.  In US and to lesser extent Australia, climate deniers are far more numerous than Canada so right can take approach climate change is a hoax and still win.  In Canada Tories in horrible spot.  Do nothing and thus means offside with most.  But take action and areas most negatively impacted economically are Alberta and Saskatchewan where party is strongest and risk hurting one of our largest industries.  Oil and gas is not a major industry in most European countries so less of a trade off.

Any thoughts on what is causing this?  Yes some will say pandemic, but you would think that would be happening everywhere not just here as most places have faced similar issues there.

[Хahar 🤔]

The BC-ization of Canadian federal politics would be interesting, even more interesting would be a 25x3 split of Canadian politics. Here's what I mean:

- Tories never recover from the current numbers and 25% becomes their baseline
- The NDP gains among left-liberals who see the NDP growing and want a bolder vision in power. The NDP hits a ceiling at around 25%, because the more radical elements keep the centrists out
- The Liberals hold on to around 25%, made up of core Liberal supporters

The remaining 25% are swing voters, Bloquistes, Greens, fringe party voters, etc.

This wouldn't be that crazy either.

This would be extremely crazy! As I have pointed out previously with reference to these wide-eyed predictions of doom, literally two years ago the Conservative Party received more votes than any other party. You can come up with elaborate reasoning for the Tories' demise if you want, but the actual issues are a poor leader coupled with the problems that opposition parties worldwide have faced in establishing a message during the pandemic.

[mileslunn]

The BC-ization of Canadian federal politics would be interesting, even more interesting would be a 25x3 split of Canadian politics. Here's what I mean:

- Tories never recover from the current numbers and 25% becomes their baseline
- The NDP gains among left-liberals who see the NDP growing and want a bolder vision in power. The NDP hits a ceiling at around 25%, because the more radical elements keep the centrists out
- The Liberals hold on to around 25%, made up of core Liberal supporters

The remaining 25% are swing voters, Bloquistes, Greens, fringe party voters, etc.

This wouldn't be that crazy either.

This would be extremely crazy! As I have pointed out previously with reference to these wide-eyed predictions of doom, literally two years ago the Conservative Party received more votes than any other party. You can come up with elaborate reasoning for the Tories' demise if you want, but the actual issues are a poor leader coupled with the problems that opposition parties worldwide have faced in establishing a message during the pandemic.

Opposition parties aren't doing bad everywhere.  In Canada alone, they are ahead in both Alberta and Manitoba.  In Ontario PCs still lead, but are polling below 2018 levels and only ahead due to split.  Looking overseas, Norway looks set to change government this September.  In Germany, both SPD and CDU/CSU likely do worse than in 2017 although CDU/CSU probably remains head of government.  In Ireland, Sinn Fein competitive while in Spain, Popular Party is now leading in the polls.  In Australia, it is neck and neck.  In New Zealand, Ardern still has decent lead but things have tightened a bit and she would lose her majority, but could form government with Greens. 

True you never want to assume anything permanent, but my gut instinct is a big shift left is happening.  Doesn't mean Liberals will govern forever, but does mean long term we will have left wing governments and you will see much more left wing policies.  Some predictions I have made in next decade are as follows.

1.  Canada introduces Wealth tax while becomes first and only OECD country with top marginal rates to hit 60% mark.

2.  Pharmacare and Dental care introduced but unlike Europe who have hybrid system, government takes hard line on private health care and Canada becomes first and only developed country with a full government monopoly and outright ban on private health care.

3.  UBI introduced.

4.  A number of big firms get nationalized like telecommunications

In many ways I see Canada being where Sweden was in 1950s and Sweden up until 90s left had monopoly on power and had massive taxes, lots of state owned enterprises, and very heavy government involvement.  In 90s that changed and in Canada probably in 2050s it catches up and changes forced like Sweden.  For most of 20th century, right in Sweden languished around 25%.  No longer case but point is not unprecedented.  In Scotland right is usually in 20-25% range.  True some SNP supporters probably do lean right even though party left wing overall.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Leger with a pretty different reading of the race.

LPC: 33
CPC: 30
NDP: 19
BQ: 7 (32% in QC)
GPC: 5
PPC: 4

Ontario: LPC 37, CPC 31, NDP 20
Quebec: BQ 32, LPC 31, CPC 17, NDP 13
BC: LPC 35, NDP 31, CPC 21 (!), GPC 6
Alberta: CPC 54, LPC 25, NDP 14
Atlantic: LPC 39, NDP 29 (!), CPC 24
MB+SK: CPC 50, LPC 27, NDP 16

Weird time for polling, isn't it? If Leger's numbers are more accurate, the Liberals are looking at losing vote share in every polling region east of Manitoba, and an almost certain minority with those breakdowns. If Abacus or Nanos are more correct, then it's a pretty easy Liberal majority.

30% for the CPC is certainly on the higher end of the polling consensus, but no less plausible than Abacus' 25%. NDP around 20%, as expected. I'd expect the Liberals to pull better than 33% though, and losing vote share in Ontario seems pretty unlikely.

[mileslunn]

Leger with a pretty different reading of the race.

LPC: 33
CPC: 30
NDP: 19
BQ: 7 (32% in QC)
GPC: 5
PPC: 4

Ontario: LPC 37, CPC 31, NDP 20
Quebec: BQ 32, LPC 31, CPC 17, NDP 13
BC: LPC 35, NDP 31, CPC 21 (!), GPC 6
Alberta: CPC 54, LPC 25, NDP 14
Atlantic: LPC 39, NDP 29 (!), CPC 24
MB+SK: CPC 50, LPC 27, NDP 16

Weird time for polling, isn't it? If Leger's numbers are more accurate, the Liberals are looking at losing vote share in every polling region east of Manitoba, and an almost certain minority with those breakdowns. If Abacus or Nanos are more correct, then it's a pretty easy Liberal majority.

30% for the CPC is certainly on the higher end of the polling consensus, but no less plausible than Abacus' 25%. NDP around 20%, as expected. I'd expect the Liberals to pull better than 33% though, and losing vote share in Ontario seems pretty unlikely.

Quite possible real #'s fall in between and just usual MOE.  Although Trudeau's approval ratings seem rather low while premier's particularly Ford, Pallister, and Kenney seem to have gotten a strong bounce.  Pallister could be just small sample as Manitoba more volatile.  Kenney perhaps full re-opening did it but want to see others to confirm or deny it.  I also suspect summer especially as people get vaccinated is tough time to poll.  Still Liberals in good shape to win, but majority while likely is not a foregone conclusion.  No matter which poll you believe Tories in bad shape, just a matter of how bad.  NDP doing reasonably well but still in third place.

[Mike88]

I follow Canadian politics a bit, although I don't post that much in here, but I don't know if the Tories fall isn't more disappointment and alienation from their voters rather than actual loss of voter base. The current CPC leadership is very weak and it isn't doing a very good opposition nor showing a good alternative to the Liberals. Thus, it's understandable that the Tories voters, with the current data, aren't happy or energetic about voting Conservative and they could be actually thinking in skipping the next general election and not vote. The fact is that polling also shows that Trudeau's government isn't that popular and voters aren't overall happy with the current situation (in the Abacus poll, 40% want "definitely" some kind of change, f.e.).

For example, here in Portugal in 2019, during that summer, the PSD was in the exact same situation of the Tories: a massive lead for the PS, 43-20%, no enthusiasm in the rightwing electorate and those voters were planning to skip the election. But, a bad PS campaign and a good performance by the PSD in the campaign, ended with a 36-28% gap on election day.

I'm not saying that is absolutely the case here, it's just my opinion, but I feel that it's more disappointment that is driving the Tories down. O'Toole is being a failure and party leaders, at least that's my view, are very important for a party stance in Canada, probably more than in other nations with Parliamentary systems, and that may be hurting the Tories.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I follow Canadian politics a bit, although I don't post that much in here, but I don't know if the Tories fall isn't more disappointment and alienation from their voters rather than actual loss of voter base. The current CPC leadership is very weak and it isn't doing a very good opposition nor showing a good alternative to the Liberals. Thus, it's understandable that the Tories voters, with the current data, aren't happy or energetic about voting Conservative and they could be actually thinking in skipping the next general election and not vote. The fact is that polling also shows that Trudeau's government isn't that popular and voters aren't overall happy with the current situation (in the Abacus poll, 40% want "definitely" some kind of change, f.e.).

For example, here in Portugal in 2019, during that summer, the PSD was in the exact same situation of the Tories: a massive lead for the PS, 43-20%, no enthusiasm in the rightwing electorate and those voters were planning to skip the election. But, a bad PS campaign and a good performance by the PSD in the campaign, ended with a 36-28% gap on election day.

I'm not saying that is absolutely the case here, it's just my opinion, but I feel that it's more disappointment that is driving the Tories down. O'Toole is being a failure and party leaders, at least that's my view, are very important for a party stance in Canada, probably more than in other nations with Parliamentary systems, and that may be hurting the Tories.

I think your analysis is pretty spot on, although it's worth to note that Canadian governments don't necessarily need high approval numbers to stay in, or even win a majority government. A majority of Canadians almost always "want change" (except in rare periods like 2016 when Trudeau had a massive honeymoon), but the "change" vote splits between several opposition parties. The conventional wisdom goes that once the change vote starts to reach 70%, goodbye government.

Your reading of the Tories' situation is basically the political analysis consensus here too. The Conservative Party has been pretty incompetent since Harper left and they keep electing uninspiring, unlikable leaders like Scheer and now O'Toole.

And yes, you're right that party leaders play a much bigger role here than in other parliamentary democracies. Most Canadians are pretty nonpartisan and like to "shop around", so a leader who can deliver the message well is crucial.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The BC-ization of Canadian federal politics would be interesting, even more interesting would be a 25x3 split of Canadian politics. Here's what I mean:

- Tories never recover from the current numbers and 25% becomes their baseline
- The NDP gains among left-liberals who see the NDP growing and want a bolder vision in power. The NDP hits a ceiling at around 25%, because the more radical elements keep the centrists out
- The Liberals hold on to around 25%, made up of core Liberal supporters

The remaining 25% are swing voters, Bloquistes, Greens, fringe party voters, etc.

This wouldn't be that crazy either.

This would be extremely crazy! As I have pointed out previously with reference to these wide-eyed predictions of doom, literally two years ago the Conservative Party received more votes than any other party. You can come up with elaborate reasoning for the Tories' demise if you want, but the actual issues are a poor leader coupled with the problems that opposition parties worldwide have faced in establishing a message during the pandemic.

Yes to all of that, but I think it's more. The Conservatives have a serious brand problem.

I think Harper's last term was a weird time in Canadian politics in just how negative the tone got. The CPC doubled down on that during the campaign with more of the same. For a whole generation, the Conservative Party came to symbolize a kind of dirty, ugly, paranoid brand of politics, and they've done absolutely nothing to shed that image.

Harper at least was a competent politician who got things done and ran things pretty well. Now we have Ford, Kenney and Pallister running provinces - the three horsemen of the Conservative apocalypse, three men who are largely incompetent and have mismanaged the hell out of public services. So now not only do the echoes of the nasty Conservative Party ring, but people don't even trust them to run a government decently.

For much of his time in power, Harper kept the ugly side of the CPC in check. He let it loose with the 2015 campaign, and now they're everywhere. Even Scheer was giving a slight nod to conspiracy theories about this "UN Migration Pact" thing, they put out ads about how the Liberals were apparently trying to rig elections, their Chinese-language Facebook page was putting out ads about Trudeau apparently legalizing coke and heroin, and in his retirement speech Scheer even talked about how you shouldn't trust MSM and read conservative media like the Post Millennial instead.

And now, over half of the CPC caucus voted against banning bloody gay conversion therapy.

I believe the term used in the UK to describe the Tories' woes in the 90s and 00s was "the nasty party", and that's an image problem the CPC has. They're our nasty party. Trudeau can be an idiot at times, his youthful optimism has started to morph into sanctimonious elitism, his government has bungled a number of files. But his government has done a lot of good things as well, and perhaps more importantly, he's not an asshole. The Conservatives certainly seem that way.

If you come off as both mean and incompetent, why exactly would people want to vote for you? Well I guess it did work for Trump, but Trump also had like 10% favourability ratings in Canada so that's not a path you want to go down.

[mileslunn]

Agreed, many boomers remember PCs pre-merger so still open to voting Tories if they change, but most millennials and Gen Z only remember Harper era and have nothing but contempt for them.  As for three provincial, doesn't help although Ford is still leading in polls, but largely due to strong splits on left so he still could lose.  Yes polling higher than O'Toole, but probably due to incumbency factor and never mind Del Duca is a dud and too many don't trust NDP.  Pallister not doing great although I would say he got more bad luck than incompetence unlike Ford and Kenney.  He is trailing, but he has never been popular and I imagine with his age may not run again if polls don't rebound.  Kenney is doing horribly and yes will likely lose.  Even if he does get back in, which I don't think he will, its Alberta where Conservatives have a natural advantage that they lack in most parts of the country.

Legault, Higgs, and King probably best centre-right premiers but due to language in first and different name while small provinces in latter two, few know much about them and most in Quebec don't really associate Legault with Tories.  In New Brunswick and PEI most see this as further example of PCs still be worthy of government, Reform not. 

Liberals will always portray Tories in a bad light thus in that sense all Tory leaders when in opposition will be at a disadvantage as people may see Liberals as corrupt or arrogant but never as extreme.  Whereas with Tories when in opposition, always fear they will move too far to right if they win or do bad things.  But current Tories do a great job of playing into stereotype.  Off course even a better leader and change of tone wouldn't right ship easily.  It would more stop bleeding but brand so badly damaged it is going to take time to be fixed.  And possible may not as I think a lot of millennials and Gen Z see entire right of spectrum as woefully out of date and see left as future for all its flaws.

[King of Kensington]

Re: Lanark, very integrated with Ottawa - 37% of Lanark workforce works in Ottawa.  But still very right-wing.  Not sure if anyone calculated 2019 results by county but Lanark generally sees the Conservatives at over 50%.

[mileslunn]

Re: Lanark, very integrated with Ottawa - 37% of Lanark workforce works in Ottawa.  But still very right-wing.  Not sure if anyone calculated 2019 results by county but Lanark generally sees the Conservatives at over 50%.

True and you see a few others like that.  Wellingotn-Halton Hills, York-Simcoe and Niagara West are all easily within commuting distance of major urban centre yet some of the most reliably conservative ridings.  But always question of how long that holds up.  Flamborough-Glanbrook (not old riding of Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborugh-Glanbrook) but current riding went solidly Tory and was quite safe for them, but now way more competitive.

At same time population density for Lanark County is much lower than most exurbs.  O'Toole and Polievre's riding both have population densities over 100 people per square km while Lanark county is only around 25 people per square km.  For country comparisons, Durham and Carleton similar population densities to France, Lanark County is more akin to Sweden in population density.  Or if using US states, Durham and Carleton similar to Pennsylvania, Lanark county more like Iowa.  After 2019, there was a chart on results by population density and did show a pretty strong correlation there.

[King of Kensington]

43% in Dufferin County commute to GTA.

https://tinyurl.com/jn4y5zyn

[mileslunn]

43% in Dufferin County commute to GTA.

https://tinyurl.com/jn4y5zyn

Dufferin County is more dense than Lanark and sort of falls in between.  Unlikely Liberals flip Dufferin-Caledon, but its not as rock solid as Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston is and if Tories fell to only 20 seats in Ontario might be vulnerable while would have to fall to single digits before Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston turns red (that is seats in Ontario for Tories).

[mileslunn]

Nanos https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1412434909294206979 .  Just wow.  I think real question is without split on right, how low can Tories go?  In past most thought 30% or at least high 20s.  I think now its much lower.  Likewise for ceiling, what is Tory ceiling today?  I think it might be so low party cannot be elected.  Off course these things change, but every day gives me more and more evidence party is not going to return to power in next decade and that NDP not Tories will defeat Liberals when people fatigue.  If you check policies and look at everything, I just don't see Tory path to power.  I guess what I don't understand is how they got 40% a decade ago or even 34% in 2019, that seems light years away.  But big events sometimes lead to big shifts.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

As for three provincial, doesn't help although Ford is still leading in polls, but largely due to strong splits on left so he still could lose.  Yes polling higher than O'Toole, but probably due to incumbency factor and never mind Del Duca is a dud and too many don't trust NDP.

The Ontario opposition parties are indeed a lifeline to Doug, because neither the NDP nor the OLP seem remotely capable. Their best hope is holding the PCs to a minority in 2022, then coalition-ing into power. FWIW, this is exactly what happened in 1985.

Legault, Higgs, and King probably best centre-right premiers but due to language in first and different name while small provinces in latter two, few know much about them and most in Quebec don't really associate Legault with Tories.  In New Brunswick and PEI most see this as further example of PCs still be worthy of government, Reform not.

I'd add Moe in Sask to that as well, he's not the most likable or charismatic guy (and his past is pretty sketchy, he has a DUI conviction and was at fault in a fatal accident, separate incidents), but he's popular in Saskatchewan and seems to have handled COVID much better than his prairie counterparts. But he's also technically not a Tory and Saskatchewan is a pretty inconsequential province, so your point stands.

And possible may not as I think a lot of millennials and Gen Z see entire right of spectrum as woefully out of date and see left as future for all its flaws.

Boomers went from being the "Humphrey-McGovern generation" to "Reagan-Bush generation". With changing times and circumstances I can see a rightward shift in Canadian (and global) millennials and gen z, but not as things currently stand.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

43% in Dufferin County commute to GTA.

https://tinyurl.com/jn4y5zyn

Dufferin County is more dense than Lanark and sort of falls in between.  Unlikely Liberals flip Dufferin-Caledon, but its not as rock solid as Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston is and if Tories fell to only 20 seats in Ontario might be vulnerable while would have to fall to single digits before Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston turns red (that is seats in Ontario for Tories).

The Caledon part of Dufferin-Caledon also has some "Milton-ization" going on with the new subdivisions, lots of people from Brampton moving into Caledon. The visible minority population of Caledon doubled from 2011 to 2016, and unsurprisingly, the main settlements in Caledon saw more Liberal precincts in 2019 than 2015. Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston doesn't have this, as Ottawa hasn't completely outgrown itself and middle class immigrants tend to move into the new subdivisions in Barrhaven, Kanata, and Orleans instead of leaving the city altogether.

[DC Al Fine]

Leger finding quite a different (but still mediocre for the Tories) result from the horrible polling the Tories have been getting lately.

[mileslunn]

I think bigger problem for Tories is less topline #'s which can change and more leadership approval ratings.  Often leadership approval rating tends to be a lead indicator.  In 2008 and 2011, many pre-election polls showed Liberal party quite competitive, but when you looked at leadership approvals, but Dion and Ignatieff were much lower and once campaign started, polls moved towards that.  So if O'Toole had high unknown, could easily be fixed during campaign.  But with such high negatives it becomes a lot harder.  He essentially needs to convince many who dislike him he is someone quite different than they perceive and that is not easy.  First impressions are crucial in general.  They say at job interviews, usually interviewer decides whether they will hire the person or not within first 90 seconds.  Yes interview lasts a lot longer, but after first 90 seconds whatever impression they have then tends to more often than not influence final decision.  Thus with leaders when unknown, first impressions matter a lot.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Polls like the Leger one could be advantageous for the Liberals. The closer voters perceive the race to be, the more ABC voting happens.