Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Will the Bloc collapse because they tied themselves to the CAQ and will the NDP get a minority/majority next Alberta elections?

To your Quebec question, if they do it won't be because of the CAQ. Despite some of the missteps made by the Legault government in recent weeks, he still has remarably high approval ratings (he also did before coronavirus). It will take years for the Liberals to rebuild, especially in the non-Montreal parts of Quebec, as the Quebec Liberal brand is too closely associated with corruption, austerity, and multiculturalism. Parti Québecois is in shambles--with sovereignty off the agenda all but the most hardcore separatists have accepted the CAQ's soft nationalism, while left-wing voters who traditionally voted PQ as the social democratic option now have Québec Solidaire as a more credibly leftist option. However, the QS is too far to the left and urban-focused to seriously challenge the CAQ. Legault and the CAQ are in an extremely strong position, they would have to really, really, really screw up to become a toxic enough brand to hurt the Bloc. If anything, the Bloc saved themselves by tying themselves to the CAQ.

I don't think the Bloc could collapse in the next election, but they may well lose seats. But that won't be due to the CAQ, that would probably be attributed to the federal Liberals riding on Trudeau's current popularity.

As for Alberta, hard to say, although the Tories haven't done themselves many favours. They spent four years blaming the NDP for Alberta's hardships--agree with them or not, that sets the expectation that they will come in and fix everything. But by the look of things, they'll be presiding over an even more difficult time, and Kenney's numbers were collapsing before the Covid-19 situation. However, Alberta is Alberta. Yes the NDP won in 2015, but there were two right-wing parties in that election, splitting the vote almost evenly. It's still an uphill battle for the NDP, though not impossible.

I can say this for sure though: the NDP won't get a minority in the next Alberta elections. Alberta is a firmly two-party province at this point, and the polarisation around Jason Kenney will ensure that. The Alberta Liberals are a joke, and the Alberta Party may win a seat or two if they play their cards right. Under these circumstances, minority government is pretty much mathematically impossible.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It looks like there might not be a chance to assemble a high profile slate of candidates, but who would be your dream slate of new Conservative candidates to run alongside Erin O'Toole, who is clearly a big step up from Andrew Scheer?  To be sure, many of mine would be high profile retreads, but some new candidates as well.

From west to east
1.James Moore
2.Mike Bernier (assuming the B.C Liberals lose)
3.Rona Ambrose
4.Gary Mar
5.Brad Wall
6.Brian Bowman
7.Jim Baird
8.Lisa Raitt
9.Michel Fortier
10.Bernard Lord
11.Peter MacKay

1. James Moore: I could see him running, as he is still relatively prominent in the CPC. His biggest challenge would be getting a seat, as metro Vancouver has trended away from the CPC since he left.

2. Mike Bernier: If a seat opens up, yes. His part of BC is held by the Conservative backbencher Bob Zimmer, who has been there since 2011. It's not inconceivable that this seat opens up, though maybe not in a snap election.

3. Rona Ambrose: Says she won't run, and has a well-paying corporate job. If she wants back into politics at all, her best bet is to wait for O'Toole's leadership to end at some point and jump into a leadership race.

4. Gary Mar: Don't know much about him, but there's not much free real estate for Conservative politicians in Alberta right now. He'd likely have to wait for a Calgary-area retirement/resignation.

5. Brad Wall: O'Toole would probably love to have someone like him in caucus, he could almost function as a "prairie lieutenant" to shore up the base while O'Toole focuses on Ontario. Again, no real estate in Sask. But should a CPC MP in SK retire anytime soon, he would get the nomination with ease.

6. Brian Bowman: Is he popular in Winnipeg? Winnipeg South and Elmwood-Transcona are marginal enough for a popular tory to win, but it's an uphill battle. And with the current state of Covid in Winnipeg, he might not win.

7. Assuming you mean John Baird: No. Ottawa has been very NOVA-ized since 2015, and his old riding of Ottawa West-Nepean is now a solid Liberal riding. He would have to run in Kanata-Carleton to have a shot. And even then, Baird might not want to. I don't know the details but the word in Ottawa is that Baird has a few skeletons in his closet.

8. Lisa Raitt: Milton is gone. Even if Van Koeverden's Olympian stardom wears off, there's clearly greater trends in Milton and it's hard to see the CPC making up a 9000-vote gap and 21% swing. She could try one of the Oakville ridings, but even those are unlikely to go blue. Her best shot is to hope Chong retires in Wellington-Halton Hills.

9. Michael Fortier: He would have to be parachuted into one of the Beauport ridings, or wait for a QC CPC MP to resign. He's been out of the public eye for quite some time though, I don't think he would be that much of a star candidate.

10. Bernard Lord: Again, out of the public eye for quite some time. He's the CEO of Medavie-Blue Cross now, which probably pays better than an MP's salary. And I don't know how well a red tory like him could fit with the party of Erin "Take Canada Back" O'Toole

11. Peter MacKay: Already announced he's not running. If he changes his mind, he has an uphill battle in Central Nova.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

This really shows how difficult the path to victory is for the CPC, even if O'Toole is a much more capable leader than his predecessor.  The Vancouver, Toronto and Ottawa suburbs are increasingly out of reach, and O'Toole is going to have to really do spectacularly well outside the "big six" (1 million+) metros or really find a way to break into ethnocultural and immigrant communities.

To O'Toole's credit, he's been trying out new ways to break or neutralize the Liberal 'red wall'. His focus on organized labour combined with culture war stuff, while fully ingenuine, could help make gains among blue collar voters. Many of these folks are politically homeless because the NDP's organizational capacity ain't what it used to be, and like in the US and the UK, this leaves room for the right wing to speak to their cultural sensibilities.

Another group O'Toole has changed the CPC's tune on is Quebecers. They're leaning heavily into Quebec nationalism now, and considering there are a lot of politically promiscuous working-class small-town Quebecers who fit both of these profiles, O'Toole's game might be to start winning more than a dozen seats in Quebec.

Do I think this will work? Maybe not immediately, I expect a snap election sometime in 2021 and that's not enough time to make relevant inroads in two communities that have historically hated your guts. But I must admit that as a Liberal, O'Toole worries me a bit more than Scheer. Scheer was just a party hack who only knew how to speak to the most hardcore Harper fans, didn't really do much for broadening the Conservative coalition. O'Toole is throwing things at the wall hoping they stick, but that's not necessarily a bad strategy for an opposition party that's basically locked out from the traditional way of winning.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The Harper/Kenney strategy of winning the "ethnic/immigrant" vote and using that to win seats in suburban Toronto and suburban Vancouver is still the path of least resistance for the CPC. It is also a more stable coalition for the CPC as they are not going to be on the offside with every single one of their key issues (tax cuts etc) with these voters as they would be with more ideologically left leaning small town Quebec. I don't know why people are counting the Conservatives out from contention for the ethnic vote consider Harper won it in 2011 and so did the Ford brothers. Harper laid out the blueprint of how the CPC can win, they'd be wise trying to replicate that strategy rather than galaxy brain ideas.

The Harper immigrant strategy/success was real, but greatly exaggerated. Yes it's true that Harper won the immigrant vote. When people think immigrant they think Chinese and Indian, but Europeans who moved in the 1950s are immigrants too. When you look at the type of immigrants that are growing in Canada's population, Harper didn't necessarily do too well. Conservatives got 31% of the visible minority vote in 2011, with the NDP getting 38% and Liberals 23%. Of course visible minority =/= immigrant, but most visible minorities in Canada (this doesn't include indigenous people of course) are immigrants, and most growing immigrant communities are visible minorities. In this sense, non-white immigrants didn't carry Harper to victory, so much as they followed a national trend. On a similar note, recent immigrants in 2011 voted for the NDP. This highlights a key difference--longtime, disproportionately white immigrants were the group that carried Harper to victory in 2011. More recent, disproportionately nonwhite immigrants stayed with the centre-left, only this time many of them voted NDP instead of the traditional Liberals (as with most other centre-left groups in 2011). The link to the poll below:

https://vancouversun.com/news/staff-blogs/poll-how-religion-and-ethnicity-shaped-canadas-2011-election

With Ford in 2018, once again, immigrant groups did not necessarily carry the PCs as much as they followed the trend. Some groups like Chinese-Canadians swung heavily to the PCs, as they have federally as well. But the South Asian and Black communities, who tend to have similar voting patterns and are a very large bloc in the GTA when combined, still leaned left. If you look at poll-by-poll breakdowns in the GTA, the Liberals and NDP did better in parts of the GTA that are disproportionately black and south asian. It should be no surprise then that three of the NDP's four seats in the 905 were in Brampton. However, what skews people's perception is that many suburban and diverse ridings were split closely. Consider Scarborough Centre, where the PCs got 38% of the vote, but the NDP and Liberals split the centre-left 33-22. Or Brampton West, one of the two PC seats in Brampton, which broke down 39-38-18 PC-NDP-OLP. Going back to the 2011 federal election makes this even clearer. The Conservatives carried Bramalea-Gore-Malton, which has one of the highest immigrant populations in Canada. Upon further inspection, the CPC candidate only got 34% of the vote, and the NDP and Liberals split 34-29. I may be cherrypicking here, but there are just a lot of examples, in both 2011 and 2018, where the Conservative sweep of immigrant-heavy ridings were mainly a byproduct of the centre-left splitting votes.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Horrible expectations management by O'Toole and his team with pushing the "CaNadiAnS WoN'T gET the vACCInE till SePtEMbER 2021 At ThE EaRlIeSt AnD iT's tHE liBerALS faulT" narrative. Now that it was announced that Canada is getting atleast 250k doses by the end of the month vaccinating 125k people, Trudeau easily clears the ridiculously low expectations set by O'Toole. Complete incompetence by the Conservatives.

Hmmm, that does seem somewhat amateurish tbh.

That's a common theme with Canada's Conservatives. They seem to be so completely consumed by a seething hatred of Justin Trudeau that they keep making stupid mistakes like this. This has been the case forever--in 2015, they pushed the Justin is not ready message so hard, Tory ads made "Justin" seem like a child. Granted Trudeau is not a politician with the most merit or gravitas, but they set the bar so low he simply walked over it with a likable personality and a few good debate performances. It's doubly stupid because at the start of the 2015 campaign, it was the NDP, not the Liberals, who were ahead in the polls and most likely to unseat the Conservatives. Yet for some reason CPC strategists decided to focus all their energy on Trudeau, which only drew attention toward him, and people said "wow, this Trudeau is a lot better than I thought."

They did the same in 2019. Trudeau's approvals were already at an all-time low, Scheer had an opening to present himself as a competent, mature adult in the room, and present some kind of an alternative vision. Enter the English language debate, Scheer uses up half of his opening remarks to say:

"Justin Trudeau only pretends to stand up for Canada. You know, he's very good at pretending things. He can't even remember how many times he put blackface on. Because the fact of the matter is, he's always wearing a mask...Mr Trudeau, you're a phony, you're a fraud, you do not deserve to lead this country."

Why? Most Canadians already saw Trudeau quite unfavourably at the time, but by doubling down on it he ceded time to present an alternate vision (which I suspect the CPC didn't really have, at least not one that would be palatable to Canadians), and he came off as unnecessarily nasty and standoffish to a nation that prides itself on apologizing when someone else bumps into them. But again, the tories are just so consumed by hating this one man, they throw good politics out the window just to get at him. Most Canadians, even though they disapproved of Trudeau at the time, didn't share that seething hatred. In the end the CPC won the popular vote but didn't even come close to reaching the Liberals in seat count, because they just ended up making massive gains in already Conservative ridings.

It also didn't help that Scheer called Trudeau a phony and a fraud, right around the time Canadians found out he had a dual citizenship he didn't disclose, and lied about being an insurance broker when he was never actually certified and only worked as a clerk in an insurance office. Whoops!

This becomes clear if you listen to a hardcore conservative, or god forbid, follow their facebook pages. They just have an obsession with hating the guy, and they'll take any opportunity to take pot shots at Justin, no matter how ill-advised it is. This amateurish play on vaccines is yet another example. They always set the bar at knee height for Justin, and can't understand how he always manages to cross it.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

UCP struggling in Alberta is in part an example of overpromising and underdelivering. Kenney and his right-wing forces spent four years blaming all of Alberta's woes on the NDP, knowing fully well that global market prices and Alberta's fiscal vulnerabilities are well beyond any single government's control. Alberta was already recovering albeit slowly by the end of Notley's mandate, but Kenney came in promising to fix all the problems he blamed on the NDP. Well not only have things gotten worse for Alberta, Kenney's actions during this time - mishandling of COVID, screwing over the rural municipalities that so passionately backed the UCP, and using a divisive and overly-partisan philosophy to governing - have not helped.

I really, really hope Albertans don't forget how Kenney acted during the pandemic by spring 2023. I've lived in Alberta before, they're good people, they deserve better than Kenney.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

National Post pleads for unity:

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/np-view-conservatives-must-unite-behind-erin-otoole-if-they-are-to-defeat-trudeau

Its been a decade since Tories federally last won an election and it seems since then base has become more right wing while median voter more left wing so I believe the gap between two has become so large its not possible to appeal to both.  O'Toole is sort of all over map as trying to appeal to both but finding not appealing to either.  When Harper was leader, appealing to both was tough, but a skilled leader could do it.  Harper did it by staying close to centre on big issues but going right on peripheral ones to fire up base and hope public wouldn't care.  That worked then, but today median voter is now on left not dead centre while base has gone from right to even further right.

Expanding on what you said, Harper also benefited from an utterly dysfunctional and balkanized Liberal Party, while today's Liberal Party is a well-oiled machine with remarkable internal unity. People still doubt Trudeau's leadership chops, but the man has been able to run a tight ship without having to muzzle his caucus nearly to the extent that Harper did. All things considered, the Liberals look like the governing party, and that goes a long way in convincing LPC-CPC swing voters.

The CPC simply has nowhere to go, and so the right wing of the party is gaining relative influence. Perhaps things would be different without the pandemic, but as of right now, the Liberals have all the ingredients they need: their policies remain around the median of Canadian public opinion, government approval is strong, there is no infighting whatsoever, and scandals haven't gotten the better of them (yet). The CPC is therefore cornered into being the party of ideological conservatives, and Canada's just not the sort of country you can win with ideology alone.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Recent Abacus Data poll with a sample of 2000

LPC: 38
CPC: 30
NDP: 17
BQ: 7
GPC: 6

Using 338Canada's simulator, it gives us a seat breakdown of:
LPC: 189 (+32)
CPC: 99 (-22)
NDP: 24 (-)
BQ: 23 (-9)
GPC: 2 (-1)

Liberals are decisively ahead everywhere except the West (behind in the prairies, three-way statistical tie in BC). Brutal 28% for the CPC in Ontario.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think BC precedence helps as Horgan didn't win most seats first time around in 2017 although that time was also quite close and BC Liberals had been in power for 16 years so time for change.  But yes 2008 was hugely divisive and backfired, but 2017 in BC was largely a yawn thus why hard to know.

It might have helped that the 2017 BC election was close to the point of basically being a tie, while in 2008, while Harper did hold a minority, the CPC was way ahead despite being a minority. I know it doesn't matter whether you're one seat off a majority or a hundred, a minority is a minority. But popular legitimacy is important, and a party that finishes second running government just feels illegitimate, even if it isn't.

Also, the BC NDP was in opposition, while the LPC is in government. The governing party winning less seats but hanging on with a backroom deal looks hopelessly desperate and power-hungry to the average voter who doesn't give a toss about the traditions of the Westminster Parliamentary system.

I think a LPC-NDP coalition could keep out a Tory minority if the seat gap between the Tories and Grits was razor-thin like BC 2017, but a decisive CPC minority would last at least one budget. The Bloc throws a wrench in this too, as it looks even more desparate and power-hungry for any federal party to make a deal with a separatist party, not least the Liberal Party which bills itself as the party of national unity

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Trudeau’s Liberals behind or in toss-ups in 13 of 14 rural ridings that reduced them to minority in 2019, say pollsters


A Hill Times article that isn't paywalled?

This is interesting though, despite tons of majority-territory polls for the LPC coming out lately, their vote might be too concentrated in major metro areas, most of which they already hold. There are still enough close major metro seats that are close enough for the LPC to pick up (Aurora, Edmonton Centre, Port Moody, etc) but there's not much real estate there. The Liberals need to get at least some of those rural seats back.

Sloan's riding is a likely pickup though because there's no way he doesn't run as an indy to mess things up for O'Toole. He won't have enough support to win outright, but just enough to split the right and let Mike Bossio (he's the Liberal candidate who unexpectedly won in 2015 and narrowly lost in 2019, is the candidate again) slip back into the seat.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

If they're toss-ups right now, then they likely remain in Liberal hands once their campaign machine has started rolling.

I partly agree, some of those ridings like Shefford, Riviere-des-Mille-Iles and Kenora could easily go back Liberal if they run as strong a campaign as in 2015 and 2019. Some are complete lost causes though, like the rural NB ridings were an anomaly caused by the immense Trudeaumania (and Harperphobia) out east in 2015, and Lac Saint-Jean was a freak byelection pickup that's safe Bloc for now, and if it falls it will fall to the CPC.

Though I think Trudeau's brand has a high-floor-low-ceiling problem that makes getting over 170 just that much harder. Liberals were the natural governing party because they were a brokerage party through-and-through, able to unite an incredibly diverse coalition of voters. Nowadays, the Liberal brand has become very concentrated in major population centres, along with Atlantic Canada and a few anomalies here and there.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The guy who wrote that article and I were trying to figure out what the list of ridings were, as he was given the number of ridings by the Liberals, but not a full list of ridings. They finally did give him the full list, and it bizarrely included St. John's East (a riding almost entirely located in the St. John's metro area) and Riviere-des-Mille-Iles, which is like what, 1% rural?

Anyway, you'll be reading much more of my #analysis in future articles.

Lol yeah I was wondering why some of those places were called "rural", a lot of those were suburban and St John's East is mostly urban.

Great #analysis though, I do think a lot of people are a bit too bullish about the Liberals, predicting 200 seats and such. It would take a complete Conservative meltdown for many of those less urban seats to fall.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It will be difficult for the Conservatives to attack Mark Carney, when they appointed him to head the Bank of Canada. Someone like him would be good to bolster the Liberals' economic credentials among Tom and Jane from Oakville. He reminds me of Paul Martin, in that he certainly knows his stuff, but he's not tested in retail politics. The Liberals should require him to run in a somewhat competitive seat.

There aren't many vacant safe LPC seats anyway. Bains vacated Mississauga-Malton, but they're having a nomination meeting soon and parachuting Carney wouldn't be a good look. Don Valley East is a vacant but titanium Liberal seat, but Micheal Coteau has it in the bag.

If he does want to run though, probably not a good idea to throw him into a competitive race. He would be an obviously qualified candidate for finance or treasury board, and like you said would help the LPC's poor image on economics among suburban voters (I might be wrong, but despite all the noise made by the left as of late, I still think the next Canadian election will be decided by economic centrists, as are most Canadian elections). He won't help the elitist image, but with a Trudeau as Prime Minister that's inevitable. But the LPC is better off parachuting him into a safe seat if he wants to run. Carney has headed the central banks of two countries with a combined GDP of $5 trillion USD. Imagine pushing him to run in a seat where there is every chance of him being beaten by some real estate agent running for the Tories.

To be clear, I think this because he just doesn't seem like a potential leader to me. I just can't see Chrystia Freeland stepping aside and giving up her status as heir-apparent for someone who has served as many days as MP as the chimp from your local zoo. Obviously I can't read his mind but Carney doesn't seem like someone who would sacrifice a potential finance portfolio for a risky and improbable leadership challenge.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Apparently Geoff Regan isn't running for re-election in Halifax West. If Carney wants to run and Trudeau wants to parachute him into an easy race, this might be an option. He has no connection to Halifax or the maritimes though, might not be a good look, but I doubt that's enough to torpedo Carney in a Liberal seat that survived 2011.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

From Reg Whitaker, a distinguished Canadian political scientist:

Absent the Turners and Martins who dominated economic policy in previous Liberal governments, the star turn of Mark Carney, former governor of the Banks of both Canada and England, served to show just how far off-centre the Liberals have now moved. Instead of the austerity and inflation-fighting mania of earlier bank governors, Carney urges a capitalism more concerned about reducing inequality and achieving a greener economy.

It is easy to be cynical about Liberal promises. No doubt a number of these aspirations will never see the light of day, and others may be severely compromised when enacted.

But the NDP are mistaken to claim unbroken continuity from a past when the Liberals campaigned from the left and governed from the right.

The old "Government Party" -- the classic big-tent, middle-of-the road brokerage party that could shift as easily to the right as to the left in response to changing wind direction -- is dead and buried.

Seismic shifts in society, economy and in political marketing and communication have rendered brokerage politics all but obsolete.

Big data, micro-targeting and social media have sharpened the boundaries between groups of voters and are polarizing electorates along increasingly tribal lines which are pulling away from each other.

Tribalization is not as advanced in Canada as it is in the U.S., but it has pulled the Conservative party much further to the right, consolidating their base of about a third of Canadians, concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan, with their petro-state economies and ideology to match.

The other two-thirds are split between Liberal, NDP, Green and Bloc Québécois supporters who have a great deal in common in political values and policy preferences (broadly on the moderate centre-left) but are divided regionally on partisan lines -- which leaves open the possibility of the right-wing minority imposing itself on the country over a fragmented majority.

Practically, Liberals have no hope of breaking into the solid Tory base, but must consolidate the centre-left to avert a Tory win.

https://rabble.ca/news/2021/04/liberals-emerge-convention-ready-govern-left

I broadly agree with this, especially the death of brokerage politics (which I would argue died when the Reform Party destroyed the PC coalition) but I think there's still enough of a centrist vote that the Liberals would be ill-advised to go full NDP. Looking at elections like 2018 Ontario, where the votes lost by Liberals split pretty evenly between the PCs and NDP, I think there are broadly enough red-blue switchers to affect elections. The disconnect is that there is no party between the Tories and Grits and such a party probably couldn't exist, because voters who swing between the two parties in my experience are apolitical, "peace order and good government" type voters that make their choice during the election period rather than having a coherent ideology that they fall into. The party base and establishment of both the LPC and CPC are polarizing though, that much is certain, and it will be interesting to see how things move forward in the future. Personally I'm still a partisan Liberal who is much more of a centrist than centre-left, and I know a fair few people in my social circle who fall into that, but I know we are a small minority these days.

Anecdotally, I think the remainder of centrist/centre-right Liberals and centrist/centre-left Tories fall where they do for cultural reasons and simply can't see themselves in the other party even if they agree with them on many issues. I'm not sure how common this is among Tories, but there's still a small minority of loyal Liberals who are a lot more Martinite in their views on economics, but dislike the baggage that comes with the Conservative Party (social conservatism, climate, etc)

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Three recent Ontario polls: EKOS has the PCs' lead narrowing, while Innovative and Abacus show a statistical tie. What's more, if the opposition coalesces around one of the parties a bit more, these statistical ties could easily put the Tories a good 4-5 points behind.

I think the third wave was Ontarians' last straw with Ford. He was unbelievably popular during the first wave, and people still broadly trusted him during the second, but the third wave has been so mismanaged and out of control that the pandemic goodwill he built up is slipping.

It's a shame that the opposition parties in Ontario are so incompetent, because I still think the PCs have a major advantage in any campaign. But honestly, Ford has been discrediting his own government from the very start, his time could well be up in 2022.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It just goes to show how strong the Liberal brand is in this province, that a party that won just 7 seats last election (and only 4 of which are running for re-election - 3 if Coteau is elected to federal Parliament), is in 4th place in fundraising (behind the Greens), arrogantly ruled the province for 15 scandal filled years before being booted from office, and and has an uncharismatic leader that none has heard of is now leading the polls.

There is no reason for a reasonable progressive voter to rally behind the Liberals in opposition. The Liberals have had their chance to govern. The NDP has been out of office for 26 years, and their incompetent Premier at the time is now a die-in-the-wool Liberal. Progressives should be supporting the NDP. 

But I guess what's also happening is the PCs are just shedding their moderate voters who normally vote Liberal (and would never vote NDP). Combined with the promiscuous progressives who have forgotten the NDP is in opposition, and have gone back to supporting them, the Liberals have begun to build up their coalition again.

That's the thing, and I know this really annoys New Democrats, but the Liberals are just perceived as the default centre-left option even when they're in a distant third in Queen's Park and their leader doesn't have a seat. The ONDP's best shot at government in Ontario since 1990 was 2018, and if they couldn't win then, their chances now look dim.

The NDP's best hope is that once people take a good look at Del Duca, they'll consider the NDP. In today's superficial and image-obsessed era, Del Duca is a poor fit. He's boring, bald, doesn't have an authoritative voice, isn't trendy or cool, and as rude as it sounds, he's kind of ugly. I know none of these things should matter, but looking the part has become more and more important for politicians, and unfortunately for Del Duca, I just can't see someone like him inspiring Ontarians en masse.

What the Ontario Liberals have done superbly well I feel is that their message these days seems very tailored to Liberals who voted for Ford in the 905, and the messenger fits the bill. An Italian blue Liberal from Vaughan who seems more naturally adept at talking about bread-and-butter issues like paid sick leave and LTC homes, rather than coming off as a "tax-and-spend Liberal" like many perceived Wynne.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It just goes to show how strong the Liberal brand is in this province, that a party that won just 7 seats last election (and only 4 of which are running for re-election - 3 if Coteau is elected to federal Parliament), is in 4th place in fundraising (behind the Greens), arrogantly ruled the province for 15 scandal filled years before being booted from office, and and has an uncharismatic leader that none has heard of is now leading the polls.

There is no reason for a reasonable progressive voter to rally behind the Liberals in opposition. The Liberals have had their chance to govern. The NDP has been out of office for 26 years, and their incompetent Premier at the time is now a die-in-the-wool Liberal. Progressives should be supporting the NDP. 

But I guess what's also happening is the PCs are just shedding their moderate voters who normally vote Liberal (and would never vote NDP). Combined with the promiscuous progressives who have forgotten the NDP is in opposition, and have gone back to supporting them, the Liberals have begun to build up their coalition again.

That's the thing, and I know this really annoys New Democrats, but the Liberals are just perceived as the default centre-left option even when they're in a distant third in Queen's Park and their leader doesn't have a seat. The ONDP's best shot at government in Ontario since 1990 was 2018, and if they couldn't win then, their chances now look dim.

The NDP's best hope is that once people take a good look at Del Duca, they'll consider the NDP. In today's superficial and image-obsessed era, Del Duca is a poor fit. He's boring, bald, doesn't have an authoritative voice, isn't trendy or cool, and as rude as it sounds, he's kind of ugly. I know none of these things should matter, but looking the part has become more and more important for politicians, and unfortunately for Del Duca, I just can't see someone like him inspiring Ontarians en masse.

What the Ontario Liberals have done superbly well I feel is that their message these days seems very tailored to Liberals who voted for Ford in the 905, and the messenger fits the bill. An Italian blue Liberal from Vaughan who seems more naturally adept at talking about bread-and-butter issues like paid sick leave and LTC homes, rather than coming off as a "tax-and-spend Liberal" like many perceived Wynne.

Del Duca is a poor fit but so is Horwath. I have no idea how she's still leader after missing the open net twice and I don't see how she somehow manages it this time. The Liberals could nominate a cardboard box with a smiley face drawn in sharpie and they'd still be the more credible opposition.

This is true, I think the ONDP's problem is that they don't really have a viable replacement for Horwath. Nobody in the ONDP caucus really stands out as someone who could outperform Horwath, so they're stuck with her.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

From Reg Whitaker, a distinguished Canadian political scientist:

Absent the Turners and Martins who dominated economic policy in previous Liberal governments, the star turn of Mark Carney, former governor of the Banks of both Canada and England, served to show just how far off-centre the Liberals have now moved. Instead of the austerity and inflation-fighting mania of earlier bank governors, Carney urges a capitalism more concerned about reducing inequality and achieving a greener economy.

It is easy to be cynical about Liberal promises. No doubt a number of these aspirations will never see the light of day, and others may be severely compromised when enacted.

But the NDP are mistaken to claim unbroken continuity from a past when the Liberals campaigned from the left and governed from the right.

The old "Government Party" -- the classic big-tent, middle-of-the road brokerage party that could shift as easily to the right as to the left in response to changing wind direction -- is dead and buried.

Seismic shifts in society, economy and in political marketing and communication have rendered brokerage politics all but obsolete.

Big data, micro-targeting and social media have sharpened the boundaries between groups of voters and are polarizing electorates along increasingly tribal lines which are pulling away from each other.

Tribalization is not as advanced in Canada as it is in the U.S., but it has pulled the Conservative party much further to the right, consolidating their base of about a third of Canadians, concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan, with their petro-state economies and ideology to match.

The other two-thirds are split between Liberal, NDP, Green and Bloc Québécois supporters who have a great deal in common in political values and policy preferences (broadly on the moderate centre-left) but are divided regionally on partisan lines -- which leaves open the possibility of the right-wing minority imposing itself on the country over a fragmented majority.

Practically, Liberals have no hope of breaking into the solid Tory base, but must consolidate the centre-left to avert a Tory win.

https://rabble.ca/news/2021/04/liberals-emerge-convention-ready-govern-left

The identification of the Bloc as having similar "political values" to the Liberals and NDP is striking, since their return to relevance at the last election did not seem like it was based on any political values that the Liberals and NDP share. I'm curious now to what extent this thinking that the Bloc is really a party of the left like the others is common among the Canadian political class; obviously it was widespread in 2009, but that was 2009.

They still lie somewhere on the Liberal-NDP continuum of progressive politics, even though their more nationalistic and sometimes xenophobic rhetoric takes centre stage in English Canada. They're an environmentalist party, in fact a lot of their rhetoric against the Liberals in 2019 was on the issue of pipelines and fossil fuel subsidies. They're socially liberal on moral issues like abortion and LGBT rights, they support more funding for social housing, they're generally pro-union, and so on. They're a bit ideosyncratic on other issues and their main priority is giving Quebec what it wants, of course, but their ideology is broadly one I would describe as left of centre.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It just goes to show how strong the Liberal brand is in this province, that a party that won just 7 seats last election (and only 4 of which are running for re-election - 3 if Coteau is elected to federal Parliament), is in 4th place in fundraising (behind the Greens), arrogantly ruled the province for 15 scandal filled years before being booted from office, and and has an uncharismatic leader that none has heard of is now leading the polls.

There is no reason for a reasonable progressive voter to rally behind the Liberals in opposition. The Liberals have had their chance to govern. The NDP has been out of office for 26 years, and their incompetent Premier at the time is now a die-in-the-wool Liberal. Progressives should be supporting the NDP. 

But I guess what's also happening is the PCs are just shedding their moderate voters who normally vote Liberal (and would never vote NDP). Combined with the promiscuous progressives who have forgotten the NDP is in opposition, and have gone back to supporting them, the Liberals have begun to build up their coalition again.

That's the thing, and I know this really annoys New Democrats, but the Liberals are just perceived as the default centre-left option even when they're in a distant third in Queen's Park and their leader doesn't have a seat. The ONDP's best shot at government in Ontario since 1990 was 2018, and if they couldn't win then, their chances now look dim.

The NDP's best hope is that once people take a good look at Del Duca, they'll consider the NDP. In today's superficial and image-obsessed era, Del Duca is a poor fit. He's boring, bald, doesn't have an authoritative voice, isn't trendy or cool, and as rude as it sounds, he's kind of ugly. I know none of these things should matter, but looking the part has become more and more important for politicians, and unfortunately for Del Duca, I just can't see someone like him inspiring Ontarians en masse.

What the Ontario Liberals have done superbly well I feel is that their message these days seems very tailored to Liberals who voted for Ford in the 905, and the messenger fits the bill. An Italian blue Liberal from Vaughan who seems more naturally adept at talking about bread-and-butter issues like paid sick leave and LTC homes, rather than coming off as a "tax-and-spend Liberal" like many perceived Wynne.

Winning back the Ford Liberals is one thing, but the Liberals need to hold their coalition together, which include promiscuous progressives. They will vote for a more left leaning Liberal Party, but will they vote for a centre-right Liberal Party? Probably not. Ford Liberals are typical Liberal voters. They don't mind voting for a left leaning Liberal Party (they voted for Wynne in 2014, and Trudeau twice) they just won't vote NDP. They know the Liberals will keep their taxes down (even if it means huge budget deficits due to increased spending), and that's what matters most to those people. 

Yeah I agree, there's not much of a place for centre-right Liberals these days in Ontario. I don't think the Liberal Party as a whole would make the mistake of drifting to the right against Ford, even if Del Duca considers himself a blue Liberal. Their most pronounced criticism of the Ford government has been on paid sick leave, where they've taken a more left-wing position and I think it's struck a chord with many Ontarians.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

If the ONDP are down 10 points they've lost the strategic voters.

Well, I suppose you may be on to something. If promiscuous progressives were willing to vote John Tory (who at that point in his career was a failure as a politician) to stop Ford (even when they could've easily voted for Olivia Chow, who had been leading in the polls until the early summer) in the 2014 mayoral election, they won't mind voting for del Duca, I guess. We get what we deserve in this province.

So does the NDP who should have dumped Horwath after the 2014 election.

I don't know, while the NDP underperformed the polls in 2014, a lot of that was strategic voting to keep Mr. 100k job cuts out of power. The 2014 Ontario election was decent for the NDP in that they built a good base in diverse parts of the province, particularly a lot of Tory areas in the southwest that could have been won in 2018.

But Horwath changed her persona from "populist but moderate steel town slugger" to "generic left-liberal" in 2018, which never really made sense to me. It was clear that Wynne was DOA in 2018, the orange wave in urban Ontario was more or less unstoppable. Maybe the old Horwath couldn't have won "bourgeois left" seats like Toronto-St. Paul's, but there were few seats like that where the Liberals could have held on, or the PCs could have come through the middle.

I think she failed to adequately distinguish herself from Wynne other than on Hydro. But the NDP was never going to win over the 905 Wynne Wave seats, they had much more potential in the postindustrial southwest. Cambridge, the two Kitchener Tory ridings, Sarnia-Lambton, Chatham-Kent, Brantford-Brant, could all have gone NDP with a fitting campaign, as well as places like Peterborough and the Soo. Who knows if a change in strategy could have done it, but Horwath's change in persona most likely did more harm than good for the NDP.

Like even if the WWC strategy only kept the PCs from getting an overall majority, such a result would have put the NDP in a position of relative power over the Liberals. If the OLP propped up an NDP minority, it would force the legacy Liberal party to play second-fiddle, and historically when you look at other provinces, that's what tends to kill the Liberals. If they let Ford govern with a minority, it would hurt the Liberals' credibility with their own supporters who would feel betrayed that their leaders could have stopped Ford but refused. But since Ford got a majority, the NDP doesn't have these cards at their disposal, and the rudderless Liberals are bouncing back.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Not sure if I agree more with MaxQue or EarlAW, which I guess goes to show the complexities of the NDP's struggles. It's a party that has to swim against the tide of decades of being a second-tier party (electorally) so even the most favourable circumstances for them are still difficult.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Layton strategist Brad Lavigne reflects on the 10 year anniversary of the orange wave.  Can't say it's a very profound analysis: the NDP "decided" it "wanted to win" and then...it almost did?

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-ten-years-after-his-orange-wave-the-ndp-must-recommit-to-jack-laytons/

The NDP needs to get over 2011 and try to chart a new path. The Orange Wave ain't gonna happen again, it required near-perfect circumstances to happen in 2011 and even then, it was mostly confined to Quebec.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

2011 was very much a fluke, not some genius plan cooked up by Lavigne.

Successful former strategists tend to bask in their own glory a little too much and for far too long.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://westernstandardonline.com/2021/05/exclusive-kenney-tells-ucp-caucus-i-want-a-new-base/

Lol.