Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

In regards to the Canadian Senate, there certainly are regional inequities and I don't doubt they can be a problem, but the Senators being appointed seem to be taking more of a 'pan Canadian' approach.

At its best, the purpose of this Senate can be as a useful tonic to the 'fake news' problem of today.  The goal of the reformed Senate seems to be to create a body of general experts who can cut through the 'fake news' and act as a counterbalance to the craven elected House of Commons.  

Obviously it's too soon to say if it's having much of a positive effect.  I think once the transition period is over with and all the partisan Conservative Senators are gone, we'll have a much better idea (I know a few of the less partisan Conservative Senators quit the Conservative caucus to sit as Independents) if this experiment works or not, assuming the Conservatives don't get back into power and start appointing partisans again.

However, the Senate does already seem to be working as intended: amending generally agreed flawed legislation from the House.  It would be a mistake however to believe that the partisan Senate did not do this work from time to time previously.  Even prior to these changes, a number of Senate committees were highly regarded for the quality of their hearings.

The idea of a popularly elected lower House matched by an inferior but still powerful unelected upper House of experts is not new.  At a minimum, the United States considered this before coming up with the idea of its Senate to be elected by state legislatures and it was a proposal that was going to be discussed at the Russian Constituent Assembly in 1918 as well.  I'm sure other nations have considered the idea as well.  

Obviously I strongly disagree that this isn't real reform or that this isn't an idea with its own history and body of research behind it.  I don't really see the purpose or the reform that comes with a second body of craven elected politicians.

Welcome to the House of Lords Preservation Society!

I'm normally a liberal but this is one case where I agree with the canadian conservatives, the canadian senate doesn't realy do anything and should be abolished or radicaly reformed.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

That's fair enough, I can't say I know much about how actual First Nations people feel about this beyond what I've read in the media (more often than not, there tends to be quite a diversity of opinions) so I could be wrong about the tone deaf part.

From my personal experience, I know that many indigenous people are very attached to Christianity, and the Church is an integral part of their lives when they're on the reserve. It's when they move to cities, that they often try to connect to the church, that the institutional church (with some notable exceptions) struggles to reach out to them.

The media isn't listening to these people, and it's almost as if indigenous people are worth listening to only if they validate pre-existing beliefs, and otherwise they should keep quiet and know their place. It's the same racism, with only the prevailing ideology of the white saviours being different.

On another note, Catholic churches in western Canada are increasingly dominated by immigrants from the Philippines, the Middle East, Latin America, India, and other such places. In Ontario, it's less so, but only because there are plenty more "European ethnic Catholics". The same goes with newly ordained clergy. Attacks on the church will be seen as attacks on these racial minority groups. That's where (and this is the same in the other English-speaking settler countries) the woke, white left become their own worst enemies. They claim to be fighting for racial minority groups, who instead feel patronized and alienated, which causes the woke, white left to ridicule them, because they genuinely can't understand why anyone would hold "backward" beliefs.

In Canada, this will probably result in the probable next Liberal leader, who herself is a practicing Catholic, quietly shifting the party away from Trudeau's wokeness. The Conservatives could make progress with this demographic, but will struggle as long as it's associated with nasty types.

Freeland's a practicing Catholic? Interesting.

Doesn't Trudeau also claim to be a practicing Catholic ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/CP24/status/1412412813142802439

She doesn't speak french but is from Quebec. Going to be weird trying to see quebecer try to attack her for not knowing the language despite creating the schools that didn't teach it to her.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Nothing especially important, but I'm sure regulars in this thread know this guy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1412480864597032971

Super cool that he's running, and running for the good guys too!

Anyone else buy his Alberta map?

Never underestimate the power of cartography to swing a district.

Didn't Tories get over 80% here last time?  I suspect this is one of the safest Tory ridings in whole country.  In Saskatchewan, I think Saskatoon West and Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River only ridings I could see NDP flipping.  

It's a paper candidacy, NDP got only 9.5% there last time

Don't underestimate the power of cartogrpahy to swing a district

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

I definitly think that the Conservative Internal polls have captured a huge surge in support of Western regionalist Parties and are definitly afraid of them becoming a new reform party that ultimately pushes them out of power for a decade similar to the reform Party.

The fact that O'Toole is pandering heavily to Alberta and Saskatchewan with his Equalization rebate policy and other announcements seem to indicate they have givend up winning the election and are instead just trying to hold the west.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

I definitly think that the Conservative Internal polls have captured a huge surge in support of Western regionalist Parties and are definitly afraid of them becoming a new reform party that ultimately pushes them out of power for a decade similar to the reform Party.

The fact that O'Toole is pandering heavily to Alberta and Saskatchewan with his Equalization rebate policy and other announcements seem to indicate they have givend up winning the election and are instead just trying to hold the west.

Yes, I agree with this. The problem is, and I don't think either of us are saying there is just one cause for any Conservative decline, is this can't fully explain the decline.  From the 2004 election to this NANOS poll, the Conservatives have lost 6% (29.6-23.6%.)  So, sure the NANOS poll is the lowest poll for Conservative support, but on the other hand, the next low in an election in Conservative support was 31.9% in 2015.  Four of the six recent polls show the Conservatives losing about 6% support from what had been assumed to be their base.

So, arithmetically Western regional parties can't fully explain this.  Alberta is slightly over 12.5% of the Canadian population and add in Saskatchewan and they're around 14.5% of the population.  If all the Conservative loss in support is based on Western regional parties, that would mean these regional parties would have to be polling at roughly 40% (6/14.5.)  I certainly don't think that is the case.

I do think there's broad discontent in the base given their relative support for covid lockdowns and vaccines that applies even in Ontario and possibly Quebec which might supprese conservative Turnout. It's also possible Canada is having the same response problems as America and the polls are off due to conservative simply starting to become less likley to respond to them.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Interesting weird article by the Hill Times (paywalled so I could only go off the bit I could see) that seems to be suggesting a return of Stephen Harper.

Okay, it's an opinion piece and probably one based on very flimsy evidence, it's not gonna happen realistically. But boy, that would be the craziest thing to happen in Canadian politics in a long time.

The piece is by Mike Harris (journalist, not the Ontario Premier). More than a little wish fulfillment there. Poor guy is lost without being able to write an anti-Harper editorial every week.

Harris will be working the "Harper lurks" corner until the day he dies. Even if Harper goes first.

Wasn't really aware of his Harper-obsession so it's probably that. But honestly, would Harper coming back even hurt the CPC? He'd probably unite the right much better than O'Toole has

People tend to like the idea of these old leaders coming back more than the actual Leaders.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

Because the Conservative Party of Canada is unbelievably awful. They combine the worst aspects of politics - they've got the bumbling incompetence that Trudeau displayed in his first term, they've got the standoffish and nasty nature Harper displayed in his last term, and ultimately they seem like an empty vessel that rarely puts forward half-decent policy ideas.

They've alienated a huge chunk of their accessible voters, both centrists and right wingers. They can't compete with the Liberals on policy ideas (in part because Trudeau can run around funding LRT projects and O'Toole can't). They don't seem competent when O'Toole can't seem to keep his party singing to the same tune, and his provincial Conservative counterparts haven't been doing very well.

Seriously, if you're not a CPC loyalist, or someone who wants Trudeau to go above all else, why should you vote for the Conservative Party?

As somebody on the center left (a liberal but not a Liberal) I obviously agree with this, but the problem is we're not really the voters that the Conservative Party is targeting or has been part of their base for 17+ years.  So, this is our view, but is it the view of those voters?

I mean, I'm one of the more right wing Liberals so I could concievably vote Conservative, but it would require the Liberals to really screw up, so yeah not exactly an accessible vote.

To put a slightly different spin on Frank's take. Did you seriously consider voting for the Ford-Tories in 2018?

There's ~6-7% of the vote in Ontario that was willing to vote for a right wing populist leader in Ontario, recently enough that demographic churn wouldn't be an issue, that didn't vote Conservative or PPC in 2019. Those are the voters the Tories need to win back*, and whose vote decision process we really need to consider in the "what's compelling about the Tories" question.

*More or less, obviously the Fords are always going to have a different appeal in Toronto than the federal Tories.

I don't think you can draw a direct connection between Ford Nation and the federal Tories, Ford Nation ability to outperform the federal tories always relies on their ability to win minority communites in Toronto. On provincal level these voters are open to right-wing populist ideas regarding fiscal conservatives and the need to check left-wing ideas.
 
A conservative federal platform doesn't have the same resonance, there's no appetite for issues like western alienation that make up federal canadian conservative populism. The Liberals strong immigrant machine allows them to keep these communites on their sides along with being percived to be better on the issue of immigration which the conservatives can't outflank without abandoning their base.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

When do I get my "Maritime Alienation" thinkpieces?

When you write them.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Why would it come on a Sunday?

Twitter Rumour Mill, lots of campagins are planning to launch on that day.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Special mention: Alex McPhee, Cypress Hills-Grasslands (mapmaker)

The NDP is really lacking in star candidates this time around, unfortunately.

The first sentence contradicts the last.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I do think Quebec solidare does have a good point that this stage of the pandemic pissing of anti vaxxers isn't an actual exit plan and that many pass measures mainly inconvenience vaccinated People

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Canada is a free society that allows protest no matter how much you disagree with it.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Re: the next election

The Tories got a shade under 34% last time. Say they need to pick up six points to form government (probably a bit less than that, but suppose for argument sake).

Does anyone seriously believe that the Liberals have six points worth of white collar professional types, who were put off by pro-choice, pro-carbon tax, Liberal-gun-ban-accepting O'Toole, but would embrace the Tories if they moved just a little bit more left?

A significant chunk of those six points are going to have come from the PPC, and perhaps the Bloc Quebecois,  some sort of accomodation is going to have to be reached to win those voters over. Even among current Liberal/NDP voters, the path of least resistance is probably going to be in the voters concentrated in places like Northern Ontario and rural Newfoundland, not the Andrew Coyne types. Those voters aren't going to be won over with the sorts of things pundits usually think the Tories should do.

To be really blunt, if Poillievre becomes leader, I'd be more nervous for the party if he runs on a platform of fiscal orthodoxy, than if he does the sort of cultural conservative stuff pundits wring their hands over.

The issue is that if the tories move right, and gain those votes especially on a culturally conservative basis much of the gains from that bloc will be offset by moving NDP voters back to the liberals as well as letting them mobilize their electorate.

There's a reason Harper stayed pretty far away from any sort of cultural war messaging.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1489275288970223624?s=20&t=Zcm5GP...
I know in last election we saw some Green -> PPC swings under the hood, but the thought then was that this was just anti-establishment voters. But maybe there is more too it?

Even the NDP and Liberal Partisan divide is far weaker than i'd expect.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

In Canadian Electoral politics news, the Sasketchwan NDP yet again proves to be in total disarray. They lost a by-election to hold their northern seat of Athabasca which has never been won by a conservative party before. Much of this is down to turnout as Indegenious turnout traditional crashes during by-elections which due to the very strane polarization of northern Canada dooms the NDP chances. The Sask Party won the seat with 51% of the vote on 24% turnout .Nevertheless, it Scott Moe has decided to very much gloat about his victory.

https://twitter.com/PremierScottMoe/status/1493810155015884803

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

In Canadian Electoral politics news, the Sasketchwan NDP yet again proves to be in total disarray. They lost a by-election to hold their northern seat of Athabasca which has never been won by a conservative party before. Much of this is down to turnout as Indegenious turnout traditional crashes during by-elections which due to the very strane polarization of northern Canada dooms the NDP chances. The Sask Party won the seat with 51% of the vote on 24% turnout .Nevertheless, it Scott Moe has decided to very much gloat about his victory.

https://twitter.com/PremierScottMoe/status/1493810155015884803

Apparently, the riding is almost entirely first nation with neglible white population. Apparently the Sask Party managed to win the Metis population here 95/5 thanks to their canidate

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

In Canadian Electoral politics news, the Sasketchwan NDP yet again proves to be in total disarray. They lost a by-election to hold their northern seat of Athabasca which has never been won by a conservative party before. Much of this is down to turnout as Indegenious turnout traditional crashes during by-elections which due to the very strane polarization of northern Canada dooms the NDP chances. The Sask Party won the seat with 51% of the vote on 24% turnout .Nevertheless, it Scott Moe has decided to very much gloat about his victory.

https://twitter.com/PremierScottMoe/status/1493810155015884803

That tweet is hardly gloating. He acknowledged the result and congratulated the new MLA from his party.

Look at his other tweet. Not even calling him Dr, talk about a snub. Anyway in other news Dr Melie is out as NDP leader in Saskatchewan
.https://twitter.com/PremierScottMoe/status/1493961003230392325?t=ZuYolmReMl_E_zb...

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Singh is the real loser here though. He humiliated himself and his party just for Trudeau to go "oh, actually, nevermind"

It's amazing to me that replacing Singh is something the NDP doesn't even consider. He's a decent enough guy, but as leader has proven pretty weak. He and his supporters would make the argument that he's the reason Trudeau has shifted to the left, which is kind of hard to disprove. But they seem to support every initiative Trudeau brings forward, which brings into question how much leverage they really have over a government that has always presented themselves as orange grits.

I like Singh a lot, but I'm open to replacing him... IF the replacement is going to improve how well the NDP is doing. I would need to see a convincing argument for why so-and-so will be an upgrade on Singh before I could approve of it.

That's fair enough, there's really no obvious replacement either, but Charlie Angus is probably a decent replacement. while Angus isn't the charismatic celebrity that Singh is, he's someone who could really take the fight to Trudeau/Freeland come next election. And yes, I do think the NDP should go more on the offensive. The Liberals aren't getting any stronger and the Tories could face some serious infighting, so there's an opening for the NDP to make solid gains. But you don't get there if people just see you as a glorified lobby group

I think his seat has maybe 2 elections left for the NDP, maybe even just 1 if he's made party leader and immediately associated with culture war stuff. Mostly white rural working class seat is something that's on borrowed time for the NDP in it's current state and he can't afford to fall much.



Seriously, Timmins—James Bay might soon have one of Canadas most right-wing MP's after Angus.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Singh is the real loser here though. He humiliated himself and his party just for Trudeau to go "oh, actually, nevermind"

It's amazing to me that replacing Singh is something the NDP doesn't even consider. He's a decent enough guy, but as leader has proven pretty weak. He and his supporters would make the argument that he's the reason Trudeau has shifted to the left, which is kind of hard to disprove. But they seem to support every initiative Trudeau brings forward, which brings into question how much leverage they really have over a government that has always presented themselves as orange grits.

I like Singh a lot, but I'm open to replacing him... IF the replacement is going to improve how well the NDP is doing. I would need to see a convincing argument for why so-and-so will be an upgrade on Singh before I could approve of it.

That's fair enough, there's really no obvious replacement either, but Charlie Angus is probably a decent replacement. while Angus isn't the charismatic celebrity that Singh is, he's someone who could really take the fight to Trudeau/Freeland come next election. And yes, I do think the NDP should go more on the offensive. The Liberals aren't getting any stronger and the Tories could face some serious infighting, so there's an opening for the NDP to make solid gains. But you don't get there if people just see you as a glorified lobby group

I think his seat has maybe 2 elections left for the NDP, maybe even just 1 if he's made party leader and immediately associated with culture war stuff. Mostly white rural working class seat is something that's on borrowed time for the NDP in it's current state and he can't afford to fall much.



Seriously, Timmins—James Bay might soon have one of Canadas most right-wing MP's after Angus.

I hadn't considered that. You're right, the trend isn't favourable to Angus, but party leaders usually get a bump.

I don't think it will help for Angus, it'll immediately force him to be vocal about several issues which could easily erode his support in the district. Right now he doesn't have to be loud about issues like enviormentalist where the NDP position will struggle in the district, that will change if he becomes leader.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Talking about "trends" like they represent some sort of unstoppable force is annoying enough normally, but it's absurd in the context of Canada. In the riding in question here, the Conservative vote has basically held steady over the last decade and the decline in the NDP vote is largely the product of Liberal gains. Is the lesson here that the rising red tide will engulf all remote white ridings?

The conservative base has held steady as the PPC has gone from non-existent to 13% of the vote, and liberals have declined since their 2015 high-point. Why deny the obvious right-wing trend in the region ? why should the residents of Timmins—James Bay be exempt from the same trend that has been pushing people of the same mileau to the right everywhere else in the world ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I found it suprising just how Uber liberal Doug fords riding was federally, one of their safest seats. Wonder what would happen if he ran federally ?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Etobicoke_North

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What happend in Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, it went from 81% liberal in 2015 to just 46% in 2021.