Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[King of Kensington]

Back in 2013 Ibbitson and Bricker wrote a book called Big shift which more or less argued 2011 was permanent re-alignment and Tories would become natural governing party.  Looks like they were dead wrong.  Obviously over next century, lots can happen ranging from following.

1.  Tories win about half the time which in last 30-40 years that is about what it has been
2.  Liberals retain their dominance as natural governing party with occasional Tory wins when Liberals overstay welcome, but more like most of 20th century
3.  Tories become a perennial third party and swap roles with NDP and win some seats but never form government again.

Which will happen too early but the idea of Tories becoming new natural governing party was silly.  Canada has always had a centre-left lean and will occasionally tilts right, polls have pretty much without exception since 2000 shown fairly centrist, but more lean left than lean right thus Tories becoming natural governing party was really always a pipe dream.  Maybe possible long term but was going to be an uphill battle.

It sure was.  The GTA and Lower Mainland have really trended away from the Conservatives.

[Hatman 🍁]

https://www.quintenews.com/2021/06/30/sloan-to-seek-re-election/

Add Hastings-Lennox & Addington to the Liberal column, I guess.

Former H-L&A Liberal MP Mike Bossio is running for re-election too. He lost the riding to Sloan in 2019 by a 4.3pt/2247 vote margin. The CPC do not yet have a candidate there.

CPC numbers in Ontario are down as is, and Sloan will be splitting the right in that riding. This makes Bossio's path to victory a lot simpler.

I suspect Sloan gets under 5% so at end of day I doubt he makes much difference.  But yeah Liberals probably re-take it although normally this riding is pretty solidly Conservative and not even close, but with how bad Tories are doing, Liberals probably gain this along with many others they normally wouldn't.  Heck I think O'Toole and Poilievre are likely to lose their seats and also see a few Liberal pickups in Alberta.  Saskatchewan probably only province they get shut out of, but could see NDP winning a seat or two there.

I think Sloan does a bit better than that, maybe in the 5-10% range, but the Tories will try to shore up most of the right-wing vote with a "vote Sloan, elect Bossio" message, which isn't such an unthinkable idea considering Bossio did win it in 2015.

although normally this riding is pretty solidly Conservative and not even close, but with how bad Tories are doing, Liberals probably gain this along with many others they normally wouldn't.

Not sure about this statement. The Liberals won this riding in 2015, and lost quite narrowly in 2019. Even if Liberal numbers stay the same as in 2019, Sloan would only have to take around 5% of the CPC vote to give it to the Liberals. With current numbers this is a toss-up, Sloan or no Sloan. With him running, I think we can safely call it "Lean Liberal"

I guess more saying pretty rural and most of rural Ontario usually goes Conservative, but with how bad things are in Ontario now, I suspect some rural will flip not just this riding but a number of others too.  I've heard rumours internals on seats are absolutely devastating and worse than many in public realize.  Thus why my suggestion Tories don't form government in next decade is something I feel more and more confident about as each day goes by.  SoCon wing will take over if they lose bad enough so its why I don't see party coming back anytime soon.

It is a mostly rural riding yes, but the Kingston to Belleville corridor, basically the United Empire Loyalist heartland has trended Liberal big time in recent elections. I'm not 100% sure why; I suspect there's been a demographic shift - maybe upper middle class retirees moving into the area?

ETA: a cursory google search confirms that it is indeed an area that is experiencing a growth in the number of retirees moving there.

[Estrella]

It is a mostly rural riding yes, but the Kingston to Belleville corridor, basically the United Empire Loyalist heartland has trended Liberal big time in recent elections. I'm not 100% sure why; I suspect there's been a demographic shift - maybe upper middle class retirees moving into the area?

ETA: a cursory google search confirms that it is indeed an area that is experiencing a growth in the number of retirees moving there.

Is this why rural eastern Ontario is and has always been Tory, as opposed to formerly Liberal rural western Ontario?

[King of Kensington]

It is a mostly rural riding yes, but the Kingston to Belleville corridor, basically the United Empire Loyalist heartland has trended Liberal big time in recent elections. I'm not 100% sure why; I suspect there's been a demographic shift - maybe upper middle class retirees moving into the area?

ETA: a cursory google search confirms that it is indeed an area that is experiencing a growth in the number of retirees moving there.

Kingston is almost like the Canadian Burlington, Vermont or something.  Very progressive city with a somewhat similar vibe, and the surrounding exurbs have a "culturally liberal" character too (Queen's profs, retired professionals etc.).  They voted NDP in the last provincial election, not PC like most rural and exurban areas.  

And yes quite the difference between west of Kingston which seems to be "Loyalist Red Tory" and the area to the east which is much more conservative (Stormont-Dundas-Glengarry, Leeds-Grenville, Lanark).  I assume less Toronto influence and maybe lower population density play a role as well?  

[King of Kensington]

Is this why rural eastern Ontario is and has always been Tory, as opposed to formerly Liberal rural western Ontario?

To generalize, Eastern Ontario is more "traditional" Anglo Canadian conservative, while Western Ontario is more socially conservative, evangelical and German/Dutch. 

[King of Kensington]

The funny thing is Erin O'Toole seems (on paper at least) like a good fit for both "traditional" cultural conservatism of the Maritimes and Eastern Ontario as well as for the rust belt.  But he's not getting any traction. 

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Is this why rural eastern Ontario is and has always been Tory, as opposed to formerly Liberal rural western Ontario?

To generalize, Eastern Ontario is more "traditional" Anglo Canadian conservative, while Western Ontario is more socially conservative, evangelical and German/Dutch. 

Eastern Ontario also has more farmers as opposed to Western Ontario, which is dominated by (often unionized) resource industries like lumber and mining.

[mileslunn]

Back in 2013 Ibbitson and Bricker wrote a book called Big shift which more or less argued 2011 was permanent re-alignment and Tories would become natural governing party.  Looks like they were dead wrong.  Obviously over next century, lots can happen ranging from following.

1.  Tories win about half the time which in last 30-40 years that is about what it has been
2.  Liberals retain their dominance as natural governing party with occasional Tory wins when Liberals overstay welcome, but more like most of 20th century
3.  Tories become a perennial third party and swap roles with NDP and win some seats but never form government again.

Which will happen too early but the idea of Tories becoming new natural governing party was silly.  Canada has always had a centre-left lean and will occasionally tilts right, polls have pretty much without exception since 2000 shown fairly centrist, but more lean left than lean right thus Tories becoming natural governing party was really always a pipe dream.  Maybe possible long term but was going to be an uphill battle.

It sure was.  The GTA and Lower Mainland have really trended away from the Conservatives.

I could probably write a book today arguing how Liberals will be natural governing party and future is firmly on left and right will wither away, but I think as that shows always should be careful about making long term projections.  Even though I would argue case today for a big shift left is far greater than case was in 2013 for big shift to right. 

Fallacy of Ibbitson and Bricker's argument is they ignored while Atlantic Canada and Quebec may be declining in influence, they are still 1/3 of population and pretty hard to win a majority if you are winning few seats there.  Also in Ontario, their book was after Ontario 2011 election so should have realized declaring 905 belt would be permanently dominated by Conservatives was silly.  Conservatives sometimes win big there and probably will in future, but more often than not they don't.  BC may have at time looked favourable to right but anyone who studied history of province would realize prior to 1993, it was more mixed bag federally and provincial dominance of right (which is no longer case) was quite different.  Finally with Alberta growing rapidly, they ignored possibility that as more people from elsewhere in Canada settled in Alberta, it was not implausible that Alberta would start to vote like elsewhere.

Lastly their idea of more immigrants favouring Conservatives was quite naive.  Yes a lot of immigrants lean right, but also too Tory base has far more racists than other parties.  Sure most Tories are not racists but fact most racists are Tories very much meant future leaders wouldn't necessarily be able to keep that element under control way Harper did.  Fact is looking globally, right occasionally makes breakthrough amount minorities elsewhere, but tend to not have staying power thus ignored this.  Bush in 2004 did quite well amongst Hispanics, but McCain in 2008 and Romney in 2012 did not and they ignored possibility of similar trajectory in Canada which has happened.

So in summary anytime you want to take about a big shift, best to wait a few election cycles to see if a blip or permanent shift.  Even though I believe there is a permanent shift to left, I wouldn't be so silly to write a book until after a few cycles to confirm it or deny it.

[King of Kensington]

Is this why rural eastern Ontario is and has always been Tory, as opposed to formerly Liberal rural western Ontario?

To generalize, Eastern Ontario is more "traditional" Anglo Canadian conservative, while Western Ontario is more socially conservative, evangelical and German/Dutch.  

Eastern Ontario also has more farmers as opposed to Western Ontario, which is dominated by (often unionized) resource industries like lumber and mining.

That would be Northern Ontario.  The primary division in the province is between thinly populated, resource-based North and densely populated Southern Ontario.  More than 90% of the population lives in Southern Ontario, in about 12% of the land area.

Western (or Southwestern) Ontario and Eastern Ontario are subregions of Southern Ontario.  That's what we're comparing.  

[WindowPhil]

Does Canada have a true equivalent to U.S "forgotten cities" cities like Des Moines, Iowa (Population 215,000), Boise, Idaho (Population 226,000) or Fargo, North Dakota (Population 121,000) tier ones?

These are insignificant on a national level, and not part of the national consciousness. But they're large conurbations with hundreds of thousands of people in them.

Something I noticed that Canadian cities seem to have much more of a national profile than American ones. Where a city like Saskatoon (Population 273,000) is well known across Canada and a part of the national consciousness. Which I assume is because the population of the country is smaller which leads to less "forgotten cities" so to speak. And thus the urban hierarchy is much more pinpointed and concentrated in centers of prestige. In contrast to the United States where each city has less prestige collectively and is less of a part of the national consciousness and feels more forgotten and inconsequential.

Or maybe I'm completely wrong. What's your perspective on my observation?

[beesley]

Does Canada have a true equivalent to U.S "forgotten cities" cities like Des Moines, Iowa (Population 215,000), Boise, Idaho (Population 226,000) or Fargo, North Dakota (Population 121,000) tier ones?

These are insignificant on a national level, and not part of the national consciousness. But they're large conurbations with hundreds of thousands of people in them.

Something I noticed that Canadian cities seem to have much more of a national profile than American ones. Where a city like Saskatoon (Population 273,000) is well known across Canada and a part of the national consciousness. Which I assume is because the population of the country is smaller which leads to less "forgotten cities" so to speak. And thus the urban hierarchy is much more pinpointed and concentrated in centers of prestige. In contrast to the United States where each city has less prestige collectively and is less of a part of the national consciousness and feels more forgotten and inconsequential.

Or maybe I'm completely wrong. What's your perspective on my observation?

A Canadian can answer your first question (North Bay? Red Deer? I don't know if there is one really good example) but I think you've answered your own question. Saskatoon is in the top 20 cities in Canada, but I think saying it is part of the national consciousness could be an exaggeration. Another point is that it is the largest city in one of only 13 regions, and that if Saskatoon was a US city, it would barely crack the top 100, in the same band as the cities you mentioned.

[Hatman 🍁]

Does Canada have a true equivalent to U.S "forgotten cities" cities like Des Moines, Iowa (Population 215,000), Boise, Idaho (Population 226,000) or Fargo, North Dakota (Population 121,000) tier ones?

These are insignificant on a national level, and not part of the national consciousness. But they're large conurbations with hundreds of thousands of people in them.

Something I noticed that Canadian cities seem to have much more of a national profile than American ones. Where a city like Saskatoon (Population 273,000) is well known across Canada and a part of the national consciousness. Which I assume is because the population of the country is smaller which leads to less "forgotten cities" so to speak. And thus the urban hierarchy is much more pinpointed and concentrated in centers of prestige. In contrast to the United States where each city has less prestige collectively and is less of a part of the national consciousness and feels more forgotten and inconsequential.

Or maybe I'm completely wrong. What's your perspective on my observation?

A Canadian can answer your first question (North Bay? Red Deer? I don't know if there is one really good example) but I think you've answered your own question. Saskatoon is in the top 20 cities in Canada, but I think saying it is part of the national consciousness could be an exaggeration. Another point is that it is the largest city in one of only 13 regions, and that if Saskatoon was a US city, it would barely crack the top 100, in the same band as the cities you mentioned.

I immediately thought of North Bay, too. People confuse it with Thunder Bay all the time, even though it's only a 4 hour drive away (and Thunder Bay is 20 hours away). Of course, I'm biased, as my dad's from there.

Is this why rural eastern Ontario is and has always been Tory, as opposed to formerly Liberal rural western Ontario?

To generalize, Eastern Ontario is more "traditional" Anglo Canadian conservative, while Western Ontario is more socially conservative, evangelical and German/Dutch. 

Eastern Ontario also has more farmers as opposed to Western Ontario, which is dominated by (often unionized) resource industries like lumber and mining.

I'd also say it has to do with Irish Protestant heritage as well, at least in the Upper Ottawa Valley (again, thinking about my own ancestry here).

[King of Kensington]

Renfrew is a bit different from the rest of rural Eastern Ontario, with its largely Catholic population (Irish, French and Polish) and distinctive accent.  It was Catholic "ancestral Liberal" until about 20 years ago then shifted to the hard right.  If Kingston and environs is Ontario's Vermont, Renfrew is its rural Pennsylvania or something.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Is this why rural eastern Ontario is and has always been Tory, as opposed to formerly Liberal rural western Ontario?

To generalize, Eastern Ontario is more "traditional" Anglo Canadian conservative, while Western Ontario is more socially conservative, evangelical and German/Dutch.  

Eastern Ontario also has more farmers as opposed to Western Ontario, which is dominated by (often unionized) resource industries like lumber and mining.

That would be Northern Ontario.  The primary division in the province is between thinly populated, resource-based North and densely populated Southern Ontario.  More than 90% of the population lives in Southern Ontario, in about 12% of the land area.

Western (or Southwestern) Ontario and Eastern Ontario are subregions of Southern Ontario.  That's what we're comparing.  

I'm from Windsor so it's all Northern Ontario to me. I thought Western Ontario denoted Northwestern Ontario the same way Eastern Ontario is really Northeastern Ontario but apparently not.

Southwestern Ontario's NDP and Liberal parties still derive a ton of support from unions, but manufacturing and government employee unions rather than resource extraction unions. The former typically go for the NDP and deliver manufacturing hubs like Windsor and Niagara while the latter usually support the Liberals in white collar urban/suburban areas like London and KWC. Ontario has a high unionization rate and a large number of both federal and provincial employees so they provide a fairly high floor (assuming they don't all flip to one side or the other strategically like they did in the 2018 provincial election)

Besides that, it's worth noting that a lot of American trends in political geography either don't apply or have only started applying recently.

For one thing, the "elites" of Canadian society like bankers, real estate moguls, dynastic heirs and so on are generally either Liberals or at best swing voters who have to be bought with Harperesque tax cuts with the notable exception of those in Western industries like resource extraction. Whereas the Reagan era Republicans won overwhelmingly with the wealthy, the Canadian Conservatives are definitely more of an outsider party, hence their comparative reliance on small donations.

Another is that, at least until very recently, the Liberals (and even the NDP) were entirely capable of winning rural ridings. Support for supply management was (at least in some ridings) a winning issue and there was enough ancestral support to keep them competitive. It also probably helped that social issues were less of a focus and there were plenty of rural Liberal MPs who took a pro-life position to keep their constituents happy without any issue from leadership. As the Liberals and NDP have raced each other leftwards socially much of that former support has dried up and left the Tories in a dominant position. Of course running up increasingly huge margins in rural ridings won't help the Tories when the rural and post-industrial ridings moving in their direction are outnumbered by the urban and suburban ridings that vote monolithically red or orange.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

https://www.quintenews.com/2021/06/30/sloan-to-seek-re-election/

Add Hastings-Lennox & Addington to the Liberal column, I guess.

Former H-L&A Liberal MP Mike Bossio is running for re-election too. He lost the riding to Sloan in 2019 by a 4.3pt/2247 vote margin. The CPC do not yet have a candidate there.

CPC numbers in Ontario are down as is, and Sloan will be splitting the right in that riding. This makes Bossio's path to victory a lot simpler.

I suspect Sloan gets under 5% so at end of day I doubt he makes much difference.  But yeah Liberals probably re-take it although normally this riding is pretty solidly Conservative and not even close, but with how bad Tories are doing, Liberals probably gain this along with many others they normally wouldn't.  Heck I think O'Toole and Poilievre are likely to lose their seats and also see a few Liberal pickups in Alberta.  Saskatchewan probably only province they get shut out of, but could see NDP winning a seat or two there.

I think Sloan does a bit better than that, maybe in the 5-10% range, but the Tories will try to shore up most of the right-wing vote with a "vote Sloan, elect Bossio" message, which isn't such an unthinkable idea considering Bossio did win it in 2015.

although normally this riding is pretty solidly Conservative and not even close, but with how bad Tories are doing, Liberals probably gain this along with many others they normally wouldn't.

Not sure about this statement. The Liberals won this riding in 2015, and lost quite narrowly in 2019. Even if Liberal numbers stay the same as in 2019, Sloan would only have to take around 5% of the CPC vote to give it to the Liberals. With current numbers this is a toss-up, Sloan or no Sloan. With him running, I think we can safely call it "Lean Liberal"

I guess more saying pretty rural and most of rural Ontario usually goes Conservative, but with how bad things are in Ontario now, I suspect some rural will flip not just this riding but a number of others too.  I've heard rumours internals on seats are absolutely devastating and worse than many in public realize.  Thus why my suggestion Tories don't form government in next decade is something I feel more and more confident about as each day goes by.  SoCon wing will take over if they lose bad enough so its why I don't see party coming back anytime soon.

That part of rural Ontario does have a slightly different vibe, I must say. There's a pretty big Mohawk reserve there (a common stop for any Toronto-Montreal/Ottawa traveler looking for cheap gas and/or smokes), and that clearly does not help the tories. But even the mostly white towns there like Napanee and Loyalist vote Liberal, and they feel more liberal, if that makes sense. That part of rural Ontario has a more "New England" vibe, as opposed to the small towns in southwestern Ontario which feel more "midwestern". There are also a lot of retirees living in the Bay of Quinte-Kingston corridor, and this Liberal government has proven fairly popular with the elderly.

Of course a lot of it might come down to local candidates. Bossio in H-L&A was a local businessperson, community activist, and briefly a councillor before running federally, and Neil Ellis in Bay of Quinte was the mayor of Belleville, the main community in that riding. Bay of Quinte also has a huge retiree population and some touristy areas in Prince Edward County

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I'm from Windsor so it's all Northern Ontario to me. I thought Western Ontario denoted Northwestern Ontario the same way Eastern Ontario is really Northeastern Ontario but apparently not.

I gotta say, you have a veeery "Windsor" perspective of Ontario geography lol. I'm originally from the GTA (and therefore always right, bow down to me you provincial heathens and peasants), I'd divide it as:

- The GTA: Just the GTA, no geographic orientation required
- Hamilton/Niagara: Kind of a weird one geographically, I'd just call it Hamilton/Niagara
- Guelph westwards: Southwestern Ontario
- Between Guelph and Peterborough, south of Muskoka, excluding GTA: Central Ontario
- East of Peterborough, south of Pembroke: Eastern Ontario
- Muskoka, Kawartha Lakes, Algonquin Park: Cottage country, no man's land
- North of that: Northern Ontario

When most people say "Northeastern" and "Northwestern" Ontario, they're usually talking about the Timmins/Sudbury/North Bay etc area and the Thunder Bay area respectively. Ottawa/Eastern Ontario is definitely a weird one, because it's definitely not the same vibe as Northern Ontario, but it's not exactly Southern either.

Another is that, at least until very recently, the Liberals (and even the NDP) were entirely capable of winning rural ridings.

They both still are. The Liberals dominate the mostly rural Atlantic provinces, have a few rural Quebec seats (and could win a lot more when the Bloc is weak), and do decently well in rural Northern Ontario and the territories. The NDP also wins rural seats, mostly in indigenous-heavy areas.

[King of Kensington]

That part of rural Ontario has a more "New England" vibe, as opposed to the small towns in southwestern Ontario which feel more "midwestern". There are also a lot of retirees living in the Bay of Quinte-Kingston corridor, and this Liberal government has proven fairly popular with the elderly.

I would agree with this.  SW Ontario is the Michigan of Ontario, and the Northumberland to Kingston area is more "New Englandesque."  Rural areas east of Kingston - not sure what US comparison is.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

To the eastern Ontario thing, the voting patterns there tell the story of European migration patterns, even if those patterns aren't the reason for how they vote.

Ottawa is obviously the exception here. Historically, the more Anglo/Protestant part of the city was more Tory, with the Anglos there traditionally being Scottish and Irish protestants, while the French part was (and is) ancestrally Liberal. But these days I don't think this history plays into Ottawa politics at all. It's a big, diverse, public-sector-dominated city and predictably votes Liberal.

In the far east of Ontario, you have Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, the only majority-Francophone riding in Ontario. No prizes for guessing why that riding votes Liberal (although it has all the other characteristics of a Tory riding - rural and exurban, agricultural, no major settlement - the French factor gives the Liberals a major leg up).

The other areas surrounding Ottawa were mostly settled by highland Scots and Irish protestants, and unsurprisingly has a long Tory history. It's probably the most orthodox right-wing part of the province, barring maybe rural southwestern Ontario (Haldimand-Norfolk, Elgin, Middlesex etc). This was the only part of the province where the Reform Party/Canadian Alliance ever won seats.

The Kingston-Belleville corridor was more loyalist-heavy and while this originally meant Toryism (John A himself was from Kingston after all), this moderate tradition has made the area more swingy in recent years - it's more than "moderate tradition" though, like I said previously there's a large retiree population which bizarrely makes it more difficult for the right-wing party in Canada. It should be said that Kingston itself is detached from this Tory temperament at this point, it's a pretty left-wing student-heavy city.

Renfrew County was the odd one out for many years, voting Liberal in an otherwise Conservative neighbourhood. Renfrew was and is predominantly Catholic, but as sectarianism has vanished from Ontario politics, so has Renfrew's Liberal tendency and it is now one of the most rock-ribbed right wing parts of Ontario (same reason why rural Southwestern Ontario used to be a Liberal fortress and is now anything but - non-Anglican/Presbytarian denominations quit the Liberals and now find themselves much more at home with the Tories).

[King of Kensington]

Ottawa = NOVA

Renfrew = West Virginia

[King of Kensington]

Ottawa was a majority-Catholic city for most of its history (though probably not anymore), due to large French and Irish-Catholic populations.  But obviously "old" Ottawa barely exists, few have particularly long-time roots in the area and it votes like a national capital and fairly diverse city.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

This ancestral voting pattern thing gets pretty interesting when you look across Canada. In Saskatchewan, the Ukrainian/Eastern-Central European areas were more pro-CCF/NDP, while the WASP areas were more PC-friendly (and provincial Liberal from 1930s-70s, when the SK PCs were relegated to a rump party). But since the advent of the Sask Party, the end of agrarian socialist politics, and the assimilation of Saskatchewan's Slavs into mainstream Anglo culture, this pattern has vanished. Today, if you're a non-indigenous resident of rural Saskatchewan, you most likely vote CPC/SKP, whether you're a McDonald or a Melnykowski.

Toronto used to be called "Tory Toronto", because the old city of Toronto was a fortress for the Frost-Robarts-Davis Tory dynasty in Ontario. Even an urban riding like Toronto-St. Paul's was a federal bellwether until 2006. Unsurprisingly, Toronto was also the historic heartland of loyalist Toryism, as well as a strong Orange Order presence. But with each subsequent wave of immigration, Toronto moved away from the Conservative brand.

The Maritimes are an excellent example because of how sectarian politics played the role there much longer than in the more urban parts of Canada. Catholics, including but not limited to Acadians were solid grits while protestants voted Tory.

Weirdly though, Newfoundland was the opposite of this and still is to some extent. The Avalon peninsula is predominantly Irish and Catholic, while the rest of Newfoundland is predominantly English and Protestant. Anywhere else in Canada this would mean Liberals win the Avalon and the Tories win the rest of the island, but the opposite is the case (federal tories stopped winning in the Avalon after Danny Williams' 2008 ABC campaign, and now all Newfoundlanders are united in their hatred of Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party). But provincially, this division still hasn't fully disappeared.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Ottawa was a majority-Catholic city for most of its history (though probably not anymore), due to large French and Irish-Catholic populations.  But obviously "old" Ottawa barely exists, few have particularly long-time roots in the area and it votes like a national capital and fairly diverse city.

Catholicism is still the largest denomination at 38%, and when you exclude non-religious people it's about half. But you're right, Ottawa's modern voting patterns have almost nothing to do with its Catholic roots. The more Catholic parts are more Liberal, but this probably has more to do with Catholics also more likely to be French.

[King of Kensington]

This ancestral voting pattern thing gets pretty interesting when you look across Canada. In Saskatchewan, the Ukrainian/Eastern-Central European areas were more pro-CCF/NDP, while the WASP areas were more PC-friendly (and provincial Liberal from 1930s-70s, when the SK PCs were relegated to a rump party). But since the advent of the Sask Party, the end of agrarian socialist politics, and the assimilation of Saskatchewan's Slavs into mainstream Anglo culture, this pattern has vanished. Today, if you're a non-indigenous resident of rural Saskatchewan, you most likely vote CPC/SKP, whether you're a McDonald or a Melnykowski.

And the German-Russian areas (i.e. ethnic Germans from Russia) were even more anti-CCF.  

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

On another note, the Carney hype train went full steam when Catherine McKenna vacated her Ottawa Centre seat. The hype train then came to an abrupt stop when former Ontario AG Yasir Naqvi announced his candidacy there. Even if the rumors are true and Trudeau wants to parachute his boy Mark into Canpoli, he won't step in the way of a respected Ottawa Liberal like Naqvi.

Interestingly though, there is a safe Ottawa-area seat where a candidate is yet to be nominated - Pontiac, just north of Gatineau, is currently represented by Will Amos who hasn't been re-nominated yet. If that name sounds familiar, let's just say he's the Liberal MP who is very liberal when it comes to nudity at work.

Maybe the Carney thing is just not going to happen, but if it is, Pontiac doesn't sound too bad. Trudeau probably won't mind telling Amos to piss off (okay I'll stop) if it means Carney gets to run in a safe seat close to Ottawa. Not sure how good his French is but I assume he speaks it well enough considering people are tipping him for finance and possibly the PMO, and Pontiac's pretty Anglo for a Quebec riding.

[2952-0-0]

Maybe Carney will be told to run in Carleton in order to boost his credibility.