Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[TheSaint250]

A jungle primary would hurt Kobach. It would help Kelly, Colyer, Svaty, Orman, or Brewer.

That's what I was saying about Orman. You wrote Orman, but I think you originally meant to write Kobach.

[Greedo punched first]

A jungle primary would hurt Kobach. It would help Kelly, Colyer, Svaty, Orman, or Brewer.

That's what I was saying about Orman. You wrote Orman, but I think you originally meant to write Kobach.

I meant Kobach. Who would win each of these one-on-one matchups?

Matchups:
Kobach (R) vs. Kelly (D)
Kobach (R) vs. Colyer (R)
Kobach (R) vs. Svaty (D)
Kobach (R) vs. Orman (I)
Kobach (R) vs. Brewer (D)

[tmthforu94]

A jungle primary would hurt Kobach. It would help Kelly, Colyer, Svaty, Orman, or Brewer.

That's what I was saying about Orman. You wrote Orman, but I think you originally meant to write Kobach.

I meant Kobach. Who would win each of these one-on-one matchups?

Matchups:
Kobach (R) vs. Kelly (D)
Kobach (R) vs. Colyer (R)
Kobach (R) vs. Svaty (D)
Kobach (R) vs. Orman (I)
Kobach (R) vs. Brewer (D)

Bolded my picks, the first four are pretty straight-forward IMO, Kobach vs. Brewer is hard to tell.

[ShadowRocket]

I do hope that Svaty runs for something if he doesn't win tomorrow. He is definitely one of the better Dem candidates this cycle.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Why is he always doing this the last minute?

It's better that he does that, remember how short the memory and attention span of the average American is. Now cut that in half that and that's the memory and attention span of a Trump devotee.

[TheSaint250]

Why is he always doing this the last minute?

It's better that he does that, remember how short the memory and attention span of the average American is. Now cut that in half that and that's the memory and attention span of a Trump devotee.

Ignoring the unnecessary and stupid comment here, he’s endorsed people ahead of time, sometimes even months before. He endorsed Bill Schuette and Ron DeSantis right out of the gate. I don’t even think DeSantis was officially running then.

[VPH]

I do hope that Svaty runs for something if he doesn't win tomorrow. He is definitely one of the better Dem candidates this cycle.

I've spent a pretty substantial amount of time volunteering for the campaign from wherever I happen to be and Josh has been nothing short of an inspiration to me. Hopefully, he stays in KS and runs again, unlike Raj Goyle, who was one of the last young stars to captivate Kansas Dems. After Goyle lost to Pompeo in 2010, he left for NYC.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I do hope that Svaty runs for something if he doesn't win tomorrow. He is definitely one of the better Dem candidates this cycle.

I've spent a pretty substantial amount of time volunteering for the campaign from wherever I happen to be and Josh has been nothing short of an inspiration to me. Hopefully, he stays in KS and runs again, unlike Raj Goyle, who was one of the last young stars to captivate Kansas Dems. After Goyle lost to Pompeo in 2010, he left for NYC.

I mean all of his career options seem to involve the central/southern plains at a minimum. If he loses I'd expect him to go back to the Land Institute for a while.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I do hope that Svaty runs for something if he doesn't win tomorrow. He is definitely one of the better Dem candidates this cycle.

I've spent a pretty substantial amount of time volunteering for the campaign from wherever I happen to be and Josh has been nothing short of an inspiration to me. Hopefully, he stays in KS and runs again, unlike Raj Goyle, who was one of the last young stars to captivate Kansas Dems. After Goyle lost to Pompeo in 2010, he left for NYC.

I mean all of his career options seem to involve the central/southern plains at a minimum. If he loses I'd expect him to go back to the Land Institute for a while.

He's young enough to run again in 2022 if Kelly loses

yeah, the LI is in Salina and would be a perfect landing pad for another run.


Though when I saw him last summer, it sounded like he had developed interests in integrated renewable energy systems? IDK, in any case I don't really think he's a "flight risk" for Kansans, so to speak.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Should the Dems be successful in 2018, which is a real possibility due to Kobach, Pat Roberts is due up in 2020. He can be defeated along with Tillis and Gardner

[IceSpear]

KKKobach is bad enough that this is probably still a toss up even with Goofy Greg in the race, but his presence still makes me think Kobach is slightly favored. A Colyer nomination would probably make the race likely R, especially because of Goofy Greg.

[Greedo punched first]

A jungle primary would hurt Kobach. It would help Kelly, Colyer, Svaty, Orman, or Brewer.

That's what I was saying about Orman. You wrote Orman, but I think you originally meant to write Kobach.

I meant Kobach. Who would win each of these one-on-one matchups?

Matchups:
Kobach (R) vs. Kelly (D)
Kobach (R) vs. Colyer (R)
Kobach (R) vs. Svaty (D)
Kobach (R) vs. Orman (I)
Kobach (R) vs. Brewer (D)

Bolded my picks, the first four are pretty straight-forward IMO, Kobach vs. Brewer is hard to tell.

A jungle primary would be great for Kansas. Third party candidates in the general election (if there are any) would not be blamed for being a spoiler.

[smoltchanov]

A question: when can Orman decide to drop off, IF such though comes to his mind?

[Sir Mohamed]

A slim chance remaining Colyer wins the primary? Trump is not too popular in KS and Colyer is still an incumbent more likely to keep the seat in Nov.

I'm not sure what's better? Take the risk to end up with Kobach but increase Dem chances, or write the state off and give it to Colyer, who is still strong right-wing, but somehow turned into the mainstream candidate because of the alternative.

[tmthforu94]

A slim chance remaining Colyer wins the primary? Trump is not too popular in KS and Colyer is still an incumbent more likely to keep the seat in Nov.

I'm not sure what's better? Take the risk to end up with Kobach but increase Dem chances, or write the state off and give it to Colyer, who is still strong right-wing, but somehow turned into the mainstream candidate because of the alternative.

Colyer still has a slight chance of winning today, though it would be a surprise. If I were a Democrat I'd be rooting for Colyer, Kobach isn't as strong for November, but he still has a very good chance of winning because of Orman. I know a handful of Democrats who are registered GOP, will vote Democratic in November, but are voting for Colyer today.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A slim chance remaining Colyer wins the primary? Trump is not too popular in KS and Colyer is still an incumbent more likely to keep the seat in Nov.

I'm not sure what's better? Take the risk to end up with Kobach but increase Dem chances, or write the state off and give it to Colyer, who is still strong right-wing, but somehow turned into the mainstream candidate because of the alternative.

Colyer still has a slight chance of winning today, though it would be a surprise. If I were a Democrat I'd be rooting for Colyer, Kobach isn't as strong for November, but he still has a very good chance of winning because of Orman. I know a handful of Democrats who are registered GOP, will vote Democratic in November, but are voting for Colyer today.

I don't follow your logic.  Isn't Orman going to be there in November regardless of who the Republicans nominate?  Therefore the Democrats should want the weakest possible R.

[Sir Mohamed]

A slim chance remaining Colyer wins the primary? Trump is not too popular in KS and Colyer is still an incumbent more likely to keep the seat in Nov.

I'm not sure what's better? Take the risk to end up with Kobach but increase Dem chances, or write the state off and give it to Colyer, who is still strong right-wing, but somehow turned into the mainstream candidate because of the alternative.

Colyer still has a slight chance of winning today, though it would be a surprise. If I were a Democrat I'd be rooting for Colyer, Kobach isn't as strong for November, but he still has a very good chance of winning because of Orman. I know a handful of Democrats who are registered GOP, will vote Democratic in November, but are voting for Colyer today.

I don't follow your logic.  Isn't Orman going to be there in November regardless of who the Republicans nominate?  Therefore the Democrats should want the weakest possible R.

He is supposed to take more Dem votes away. That means Kobach could win with 45% of the vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A slim chance remaining Colyer wins the primary? Trump is not too popular in KS and Colyer is still an incumbent more likely to keep the seat in Nov.

I'm not sure what's better? Take the risk to end up with Kobach but increase Dem chances, or write the state off and give it to Colyer, who is still strong right-wing, but somehow turned into the mainstream candidate because of the alternative.

Colyer still has a slight chance of winning today, though it would be a surprise. If I were a Democrat I'd be rooting for Colyer, Kobach isn't as strong for November, but he still has a very good chance of winning because of Orman. I know a handful of Democrats who are registered GOP, will vote Democratic in November, but are voting for Colyer today.

I don't follow your logic.  Isn't Orman going to be there in November regardless of who the Republicans nominate?  Therefore the Democrats should want the weakest possible R.

He is supposed to take more Dem votes away. That means Kobach could win with 45% of the vote.

OK, that makes sense.  Thanks.

[Sir Mohamed]

A slim chance remaining Colyer wins the primary? Trump is not too popular in KS and Colyer is still an incumbent more likely to keep the seat in Nov.

I'm not sure what's better? Take the risk to end up with Kobach but increase Dem chances, or write the state off and give it to Colyer, who is still strong right-wing, but somehow turned into the mainstream candidate because of the alternative.

Colyer still has a slight chance of winning today, though it would be a surprise. If I were a Democrat I'd be rooting for Colyer, Kobach isn't as strong for November, but he still has a very good chance of winning because of Orman. I know a handful of Democrats who are registered GOP, will vote Democratic in November, but are voting for Colyer today.

I don't follow your logic.  Isn't Orman going to be there in November regardless of who the Republicans nominate?  Therefore the Democrats should want the weakest possible R.

He is supposed to take more Dem votes away. That means Kobach could win with 45% of the vote.

OK, that makes sense.  Thanks.

At least Atlas told me that, I didn't even know Orman before this race. I followed politics in 2014 already, but the KS-Sen race was under my radar. In the past, he was registered as a Dem and GOPer. But that he takes more votes away from Dems makes sense if he is somewhat of a moderate.

[tmthforu94]

A slim chance remaining Colyer wins the primary? Trump is not too popular in KS and Colyer is still an incumbent more likely to keep the seat in Nov.

I'm not sure what's better? Take the risk to end up with Kobach but increase Dem chances, or write the state off and give it to Colyer, who is still strong right-wing, but somehow turned into the mainstream candidate because of the alternative.

Colyer still has a slight chance of winning today, though it would be a surprise. If I were a Democrat I'd be rooting for Colyer, Kobach isn't as strong for November, but he still has a very good chance of winning because of Orman. I know a handful of Democrats who are registered GOP, will vote Democratic in November, but are voting for Colyer today.

I don't follow your logic.  Isn't Orman going to be there in November regardless of who the Republicans nominate?  Therefore the Democrats should want the weakest possible R.

Well, maybe this is just a crazy idea, but some prefer each party nominating the best candidate to help ensure that Kansas has the best governor possible.

Let me see if I can word this in a simpler way that you can understand: Orman takes away more votes from the Democrats, which will benefit both Republican candidates.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A slim chance remaining Colyer wins the primary? Trump is not too popular in KS and Colyer is still an incumbent more likely to keep the seat in Nov.

I'm not sure what's better? Take the risk to end up with Kobach but increase Dem chances, or write the state off and give it to Colyer, who is still strong right-wing, but somehow turned into the mainstream candidate because of the alternative.

Colyer still has a slight chance of winning today, though it would be a surprise. If I were a Democrat I'd be rooting for Colyer, Kobach isn't as strong for November, but he still has a very good chance of winning because of Orman. I know a handful of Democrats who are registered GOP, will vote Democratic in November, but are voting for Colyer today.

I don't follow your logic.  Isn't Orman going to be there in November regardless of who the Republicans nominate?  Therefore the Democrats should want the weakest possible R.

Well, maybe this is just a crazy idea, but some prefer each party nominating the best candidate to help ensure that Kansas has the best governor possible.

Let me see if I can word this in a simpler way that you can understand: Orman takes away more votes from the Democrats, which will benefit both Republican candidates.

No need to be snippy.  I got your point after Sir Mohamed explained it, and FWIW I agree with the premise that one should want the best candidate (from one's viewpoint) to be nominated by each party, since any of them might win, and you want to avoid the worst choice.  But my point was that D's who are rooting tactically may in fact want Kobach to win the primary since he's perceived as a weaker GE candidate (although I would think that tactic would be somewhat tarnished after many D's rooted for Trump in 2016!)

[Sestak]

Ugh.

Can we bribe Orman with a cabinet position in the next Dem administration in exchange for dropping out?

[BuckeyeNut]

Ugh.

Can we bribe Orman with a cabinet position in the next Dem administration in exchange for dropping out?

 no.

[VPH]

A slim chance remaining Colyer wins the primary? Trump is not too popular in KS and Colyer is still an incumbent more likely to keep the seat in Nov.

I'm not sure what's better? Take the risk to end up with Kobach but increase Dem chances, or write the state off and give it to Colyer, who is still strong right-wing, but somehow turned into the mainstream candidate because of the alternative.

Colyer still has a slight chance of winning today, though it would be a surprise. If I were a Democrat I'd be rooting for Colyer, Kobach isn't as strong for November, but he still has a very good chance of winning because of Orman. I know a handful of Democrats who are registered GOP, will vote Democratic in November, but are voting for Colyer today.

I don't follow your logic.  Isn't Orman going to be there in November regardless of who the Republicans nominate?  Therefore the Democrats should want the weakest possible R.

Well, maybe this is just a crazy idea, but some prefer each party nominating the best candidate to help ensure that Kansas has the best governor possible.

Let me see if I can word this in a simpler way that you can understand: Orman takes away more votes from the Democrats, which will benefit both Republican candidates.

No need to be snippy.  I got your point after Sir Mohamed explained it, and FWIW I agree with the premise that one should want the best candidate (from one's viewpoint) to be nominated by each party, since any of them might win, and you want to avoid the worst choice.  But my point was that D's who are rooting tactically may in fact want Kobach to win the primary since he's perceived as a weaker GE candidate (although I would think that tactic would be somewhat tarnished after many D's rooted for Trump in 2016!)

The “root for the weakest candidate in the primary” is low risk, high reward. There is zero functional difference between people like Trump and Cruz. And sometimes you strike gold with races like AL-Sen, MO-Sen, DE-Sen, NV-Sen, CO-Sen, IN-Sen, and so on. I’d take that any day over a slightly more competent but equally as nasty arch conservative

Kevin Yoder is doing it in KS-03. Seems to think Welder is far weaker than the other Dems (probably true).

[tmthforu94]

A question: when can Orman decide to drop off, IF such though comes to his mind?

I think it is early September but I can't find the exact date. Specifically, that is when his name can be removed from the ballot. He could obviously drop out the day before the election and encourage his supporters to vote for Kelly/Svaty.