Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[tmthforu94]

^^^Agreed with Saint. Barnett is largely a non-factor, he will probably end up somewhere between 5-10%. Selzer has a decent base in Johnson County so will probably hit double-digits, but neither has gained much traction and based on fundraising numbers, I doubt they will make up ground in the remaining three weeks.

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks!

[VPH]

Moderate to liberal Johnson County Republican Senator Barbara Bollier endorsed Democrats Tom Niermann (KS-03) and Laura Kelly (Gov) this week, earning her a sharp rebuke from Senator President Susan Wagle and a demotion from her committee leadership position.

Now, unsurprisingly, Bollier is considering switching parties. Her district gave Hillary Clinton 62% of the vote and is one of Kansas' most affluent ones. She isn't up for re-election until 2020. Bollier is one of the biggest advocates in the Senate for Medicaid expansion, gun control, and public education. She is also pro-choice and pro-LGBT and would fit in well with the Senate Democratic Caucus.

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180718/republican-state-sen-barbara-bollier-considers-leaving-party-faces-retribution-for-supporting-democrats

[Zaybay]

Moderate to liberal Johnson County Republican Senator Barbara Bollier endorsed Democrats Tom Niermann (KS-03) and Laura Kelly (Gov) this week, earning her a sharp rebuke from Senator President Susan Wagle and a demotion from her committee leadership position.

Now, unsurprisingly, Bollier is considering switching parties. Her district gave Hillary Clinton 62% of the vote and is one of Kansas' most affluent ones. She isn't up for re-election until 2020. Bollier is one of the biggest advocates in the Senate for Medicaid expansion, gun control, and public education. She is also pro-choice and pro-LGBT and would fit in well with the Senate Democratic Caucus.

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180718/republican-state-sen-barbara-bollier-considers-leaving-party-faces-retribution-for-supporting-democrats

Interesting. Whats keeping her with the GOP? My guess is its a Hawaii situation, where most are in the same party, since you cant have any power if your in the minority.

[VPH]

Moderate to liberal Johnson County Republican Senator Barbara Bollier endorsed Democrats Tom Niermann (KS-03) and Laura Kelly (Gov) this week, earning her a sharp rebuke from Senator President Susan Wagle and a demotion from her committee leadership position.

Now, unsurprisingly, Bollier is considering switching parties. Her district gave Hillary Clinton 62% of the vote and is one of Kansas' most affluent ones. She isn't up for re-election until 2020. Bollier is one of the biggest advocates in the Senate for Medicaid expansion, gun control, and public education. She is also pro-choice and pro-LGBT and would fit in well with the Senate Democratic Caucus.

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180718/republican-state-sen-barbara-bollier-considers-leaving-party-faces-retribution-for-supporting-democrats

Interesting. Whats keeping her with the GOP? My guess is its a Hawaii situation, where most are in the same party, since you cant have any power if your in the minority.

Democrats don't have an awful lot of power, but working with moderates like Senator Bollier, they've been able to get some things done. I think she stays because there is a decently sized faction of moderate Republicans who stand up to the right wing of their party, so she's not quite alone. She, Melissa Rooker, and Stephanie Clayton are the big three moderates who come to mind from Johnson County. And then there are others like Carolyn McGinn in the Senate, who gets labor, environmental, and education endorsements. McGinn and most of the moderates outside of JoCo are more right-leaning, but they still tend to vote like a bloc on some issues.

[smoltchanov]

Moderate to liberal Johnson County Republican Senator Barbara Bollier endorsed Democrats Tom Niermann (KS-03) and Laura Kelly (Gov) this week, earning her a sharp rebuke from Senator President Susan Wagle and a demotion from her committee leadership position.

Now, unsurprisingly, Bollier is considering switching parties. Her district gave Hillary Clinton 62% of the vote and is one of Kansas' most affluent ones. She isn't up for re-election until 2020. Bollier is one of the biggest advocates in the Senate for Medicaid expansion, gun control, and public education. She is also pro-choice and pro-LGBT and would fit in well with the Senate Democratic Caucus.

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180718/republican-state-sen-barbara-bollier-considers-leaving-party-faces-retribution-for-supporting-democrats

Not surprizing. But, IIRV, there are at least 5-7 other moderate Republican state senators with comparable voting record, but from more Trumpish districts (Skubal, Sykes, and so on). It's interesting to observe their reaction and behavoir. Doll already became Indie, for example... Taylor somehow manages to be a moderate in 82% Trump district. We shall see...

[tmthforu94]

FYI - the deadline to register to vote was this past Tuesday (7/17).

[smoltchanov]

Guys (and gals) - i repeat here my question from another thread: what's so "criminal" in politician supporting candidate of other party for office? In 1972 literally thousands Democratic officeholders refused to support George McGovern for President, and majority of them happily supported Nixon. No repressions followed. Many Southern Democrats supported Bush in 2000 and 2004. Again - essentially the same. And so on. If you call themselves "parties of big tent" - you must behave normally when someone from your "tent" demonstrates maverick inclinations. Otherwise - where is this "tent"? You have 2 boring armies of "loyal soldiers", and nothing more.... Normal "Bolshevick's parties" we know so well in Russia...

[tmthforu94]

The times have changed, party's are more partisan. I think this race is more personal - Kevin Yoder is in the same state as Bollier, the same district. He has a close working relationship with many in the legislature as he used to be in there, so people take it more personally when she goes against the party and backs his opponent.

Bollier has been extremely critical of GOP officials for years and votes to the left of even some Democrats in the Senate. It continues to baffle me why she is still a Republican, hopefully after this stunt she decides to finally be honest with the voters and become a Democrat. I'm supportive of moderate politicians (Sykes, Cox, Finch, etc.) and conservative politicians - she is neither.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race can be won by Dems

[smoltchanov]

The times have changed, party's are more partisan. I think this race is more personal - Kevin Yoder is in the same state as Bollier, the same district. He has a close working relationship with many in the legislature as he used to be in there, so people take it more personally when she goes against the party and backs his opponent.

Bollier has been extremely critical of GOP officials for years and votes to the left of even some Democrats in the Senate. It continues to baffle me why she is still a Republican, hopefully after this stunt she decides to finally be honest with the voters and become a Democrat. I'm supportive of moderate politicians (Sykes, Cox, Finch, etc.) and conservative politicians - she is neither.

Thanks for explanation! Quite possible. But i remember even more liberal Republican state Senators (like David Wysong, who, it seems to me, was elected from the same district quite recently) - and their "apostasies" were still tolerated. Clayton, Rooker, Gallagher (in state House) - all vote approximately the same way Bollier does. And they are unopposed this year in primary So, i think an element of "personal vendetta" still exist in this case. Though in Bollier's case it would, probably, be even easier for her to get reelected as Democrat (in 61.5% Clinton district). Her former seat in state House went Democratic in 2016 despite all attempts by Republicans to save it (even running moderate candidate themselves).

[VPH]

https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article215375450.html

Remington:

Kelly-36%, Kobach-35%, Orman-12%

Colyer-38%, Kelly 28%, Orman-10%

[Zaybay]

https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article215375450.html

Remington:

Kelly-36%, Kobach-35%, Orman-12%

Colyer-38%, Kelly 28%, Orman-10%

Wow, thats a large difference. Well, hope Kobach is the R. Also, why, why are you here Orman? Go away. Please. Go away.

[Canis]

https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article215375450.html

Remington:

Kelly-36%, Kobach-35%, Orman-12%

Colyer-38%, Kelly 28%, Orman-10%

Wish we got some crosstabs to see who orman is taking away from the most. Also why only poll Kelly? What about Svaty?

[RogueBeaver]

Trump was dissuaded from endorsing Kobach last spring, and his aides keep urging him not to, but he still might anyways.

[ON Progressive]

https://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article215375450.html

Remington:

Kelly-36%, Kobach-35%, Orman-12%

Colyer-38%, Kelly 28%, Orman-10%

Also in that article for the GOP primary (Kobach internal)
Kobach 37
Colyer 26

700 people and an MoE of 3.7%, so it seems legit for an internal.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump was dissuaded from endorsing Kobach last spring, and his aides keep urging him not to, but he still might anyways.

Of course he will, because loyalty or whatever.

[Tartarus Sauce]

On the bright side, this is probably the peak time for Orman to be polling. On the downside, Svaty doesn’t look likely to get the nomination

He should run for Senate in 2020 when Pat Roberts likely retires if he loses the primary.

[smoltchanov]

IIRC - Kelly represents 57% Trump district, and, at the same time, has strongly liberal reputation. The first factor (an ability to win such district) is a plus, the second - probably, a minus, especially against "slightly more sane" Colyer.  May be - moderate liberal would be better in such case?

[TheSaint250]

COME ON GREG ORMAN

[VPH]

On the bright side, this is probably the peak time for Orman to be polling. On the downside, Svaty doesn’t look likely to get the nomination

He should run for Senate in 2020 when Pat Roberts likely retires if he loses the primary.

Nah, even in an open seat race that’d just be a suicide run. The only realistic way I could see a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kansas is if a popular Democratic Governor was able to win on personal popularity. Think back to those hypothetical polls showing Kathleen Sebelius up by double digits for the open senate race in 2010 before she was tapped for HHS.

Svaty is young enough to serve as Governor, and if he were to succeed there, make a Senate run. Kelly is way too old.

I'm not a big fan of Laura Kelly but I disagree that she's "too old".

IIRC - Kelly represents 57% Trump district, and, at the same time, has strongly liberal reputation. The first factor (an ability to win such district) is a plus, the second - probably, a minus, especially against "slightly more sane" Colyer.  May be - moderate liberal would be better in such case?

Laura Kelly's really not that liberal. She had an NRA A+ rating, voted to ban the governor from expanding Medicaid, and voted for Kobach's voter ID. Arguably, the most liberal candidate (aside from the teenager) in the race right now is Josh Svaty.

[Tartarus Sauce]

On the bright side, this is probably the peak time for Orman to be polling. On the downside, Svaty doesn’t look likely to get the nomination

He should run for Senate in 2020 when Pat Roberts likely retires if he loses the primary.

Nah, even in an open seat race that’d just be a suicide run. The only realistic way I could see a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kansas is if a popular Democratic Governor was able to win on personal popularity. Think back to those hypothetical polls showing Kathleen Sebelius up by double digits for the open senate race in 2010 before she was tapped for HHS.

Svaty is young enough to serve as Governor, and if he were to succeed there, make a Senate run. Kelly is way too old.

I'm not a big fan of Laura Kelly but I disagree that she's "too old".

IIRC - Kelly represents 57% Trump district, and, at the same time, has strongly liberal reputation. The first factor (an ability to win such district) is a plus, the second - probably, a minus, especially against "slightly more sane" Colyer.  May be - moderate liberal would be better in such case?

Laura Kelly's really not that liberal. She had an NRA A+ rating, voted to ban the governor from expanding Medicaid, and voted for Kobach's voter ID. Arguably, the most liberal candidate (aside from the teenager) in the race right now is Josh Svaty.

And she’s the front runner for the Democrats??? How?

[VPH]

On the bright side, this is probably the peak time for Orman to be polling. On the downside, Svaty doesn’t look likely to get the nomination

He should run for Senate in 2020 when Pat Roberts likely retires if he loses the primary.

Nah, even in an open seat race that’d just be a suicide run. The only realistic way I could see a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kansas is if a popular Democratic Governor was able to win on personal popularity. Think back to those hypothetical polls showing Kathleen Sebelius up by double digits for the open senate race in 2010 before she was tapped for HHS.

Svaty is young enough to serve as Governor, and if he were to succeed there, make a Senate run. Kelly is way too old.

I'm not a big fan of Laura Kelly but I disagree that she's "too old".

IIRC - Kelly represents 57% Trump district, and, at the same time, has strongly liberal reputation. The first factor (an ability to win such district) is a plus, the second - probably, a minus, especially against "slightly more sane" Colyer.  May be - moderate liberal would be better in such case?

Laura Kelly's really not that liberal. She had an NRA A+ rating, voted to ban the governor from expanding Medicaid, and voted for Kobach's voter ID. Arguably, the most liberal candidate (aside from the teenager) in the race right now is Josh Svaty.

And she’s the front runner for the Democrats??? How?

She's Kathleen Sebelius' neighbor and Sebelius has beef with Svaty. She pushed Kelly into the race and Kelly's fundraising is almost all from Sebelius' network. Heck, even at Washington Days this year (convention in late February), while all the candidates were working tables at the banquet, Laura Kelly was sitting around while Sebelius worked the tables for her.

[smoltchanov]

On the bright side, this is probably the peak time for Orman to be polling. On the downside, Svaty doesn’t look likely to get the nomination

He should run for Senate in 2020 when Pat Roberts likely retires if he loses the primary.

Nah, even in an open seat race that’d just be a suicide run. The only realistic way I could see a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kansas is if a popular Democratic Governor was able to win on personal popularity. Think back to those hypothetical polls showing Kathleen Sebelius up by double digits for the open senate race in 2010 before she was tapped for HHS.

Svaty is young enough to serve as Governor, and if he were to succeed there, make a Senate run. Kelly is way too old.

I'm not a big fan of Laura Kelly but I disagree that she's "too old".

IIRC - Kelly represents 57% Trump district, and, at the same time, has strongly liberal reputation. The first factor (an ability to win such district) is a plus, the second - probably, a minus, especially against "slightly more sane" Colyer.  May be - moderate liberal would be better in such case?

Laura Kelly's really not that liberal. She had an NRA A+ rating, voted to ban the governor from expanding Medicaid, and voted for Kobach's voter ID. Arguably, the most liberal candidate (aside from the teenager) in the race right now is Josh Svaty.

And she’s the front runner for the Democrats??? How?

Kansas is NOT especially liberal state. That's true for Democrats too to some extent..

2 VPH Thanks! I based my estimate on ACU and Kansas Policy Institute ratings, but every organization's rating is inherently subjective)))))

[YE]

On the bright side, this is probably the peak time for Orman to be polling. On the downside, Svaty doesn’t look likely to get the nomination

He should run for Senate in 2020 when Pat Roberts likely retires if he loses the primary.

Nah, even in an open seat race that’d just be a suicide run. The only realistic way I could see a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kansas is if a popular Democratic Governor was able to win on personal popularity. Think back to those hypothetical polls showing Kathleen Sebelius up by double digits for the open senate race in 2010 before she was tapped for HHS.

Svaty is young enough to serve as Governor, and if he were to succeed there, make a Senate run. Kelly is way too old.

I'm not a big fan of Laura Kelly but I disagree that she's "too old".

IIRC - Kelly represents 57% Trump district, and, at the same time, has strongly liberal reputation. The first factor (an ability to win such district) is a plus, the second - probably, a minus, especially against "slightly more sane" Colyer.  May be - moderate liberal would be better in such case?

Laura Kelly's really not that liberal. She had an NRA A+ rating, voted to ban the governor from expanding Medicaid, and voted for Kobach's voter ID. Arguably, the most liberal candidate (aside from the teenager) in the race right now is Josh Svaty.

And she’s the front runner for the Democrats??? How?

Kansas is NOT especially liberal state. That's true for Democrats too to some extent..

2 VPH Thanks!

That doesn't make it okay to support Voter ID's or be against expanding medicaid.