Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[VPH]

Minor Democratic candidates include:
Jack Bergeson (Teenager from Wichita)
Robert Klingenberg (Random guy from Salina)
Arden Andersen (Doctor from JoCo)

[VPH]

It all depends on how Orman is branded. Does he maintain a "quasi-Democrat" aura from 2014 or does he look like a "JoCo moderate GOPer"?

[VPH]

I was at Washington Days (our Dem convention) yesterday and saw the shape of the race.

Each candidate had a table, minus the some-guys. They were giving out stickers/buttons and stuff, and Brewer was the only one selling his items. Svaty's table had the most people stopping by (maybe the delicious homemade kolaches helped out...) and there were tons of people walking around with Svaty buttons on. His supporters showed up in force, including me. Ward had the second most supporters there for sure.

During the debate, Svaty clearly won, and fans of other candidates were telling me this. His energy and rhetoric stood out, and he was very specific, especially on the healthcare question. Ward did decent, talked about his record and threw some progressive red meat. Laura Kelly just seemed absent. She was sleepy, stumbling, and didn't seem at all confident. Brewer was okay but fumbled a few questions and didn't say much. In terms of the minor candidates, Jack Bergeson (the kid) was the only one to bring up the sales tax on food and the first to talk about marijuana reform. Robert Klingberg was, well, Robert Klingberg-just said some random things about being an average guy. Arden Andersen, however, was wacko. Dude brought up autism/"growing numbers of developmental disorders" in every speech and appeared on the verge of an antivax rant. What a character...

Overall, I think Washington Days shows that the Democratic frontrunners are Svaty, Kelly, and Ward to a lesser extent. Brewer is rapidly falling behind and it wouldn't shock me if he dropped out. Kelly doesn't seem like she's in the race (Sebelius was working the room before dinner while Kelly sat at her table, even as Ward, Brewer, and Svaty worked the room), but she's got the Sebelius machine. Svaty has energy and a dynamic campaign team, but not necessarily the party establishment. Ward has a lot of progressive Dem activists, but not the money he needs. For that matter, I heard that labor won't be big on Ward because of how he took down Tom Burroughs, who has a lot of standing among Wyandotte County unions, as minority leader a few years back.

Will definitely be an interesting race moving forward!

[VPH]

I think Orman can be pushed out of the race if Democrats show that they have a strong candidate.

[VPH]

Brutal takedown of Laura Kelly in the KC Star today. Like man, it's harsher even than I thought it would be from the headline. The author even says "But she has an understated personality, lost her place during her opening statement and drew fewer whoops from the crowd than several other contenders, including 17-year-old Jack Bergeson, who argued for legalizing pot every chance he got"
http://www.kansascity.com/latest-news/article203559889.html

[VPH]

Greg Orman has chosen Kansas State Representative John Doll, who before becoming an independent in joining the ticket was a moderate Republican.

https://www.ormanforkansas.com/about_john_doll

He will now be the Kansas Legislature's only independent.

This seems to be a move to increase his bipartisan credentials in the eyes of some Republicans who might have viewed him as being a Democrat stand-in in 2014 (though those that think that probably won't vote for him anyway).

Funny enough, Doll used to be a Democrat and ran for the big first in 2006.

[VPH]

Greg Orman has chosen Kansas State Representative John Doll, who before becoming an independent in joining the ticket was a moderate Republican.

https://www.ormanforkansas.com/about_john_doll

He will now be the Kansas Legislature's only independent.

This seems to be a move to increase his bipartisan credentials in the eyes of some Republicans who might have viewed him as being a Democrat stand-in in 2014 (though those that think that probably won't vote for him anyway).

Funny enough, Doll used to be a Democrat and ran for the big first in 2006.

Good grief. Two opportunistic peas in a pod.

You can't win in far western Kansas as a Democrat, usually. And Doll is from Western Kansas. So - he made a right decision..

I don't necessarily agree. Dennis McKinney used to pull great numbers in West-Central Kansas. Eber Phelps, a longtime Representative from Hays and former Hays mayor (iirc), won back his seat over moderate Sue Boldra in 2016. Trump got around 75% here, although it's an ancestrally Democratic area way back. Heck, Daniel Love almost won the Dodge City House seat after dropping out the day after the filing deadline and not having his name taken off the ballot. Without campaigning, he was one mailer or two away from winning a deep red district. Granted, Love is a longtime judge there, but it goes to show that in Kansas, it's hard to write things off.

In 2006, despite getting creamed, John Doll got around 40% in Finney County. My guess is that he won Garden City proper and could probably win the corresponding state House seat as a Democrat.

[VPH]

Greg Orman has chosen Kansas State Representative John Doll, who before becoming an independent in joining the ticket was a moderate Republican.

https://www.ormanforkansas.com/about_john_doll

He will now be the Kansas Legislature's only independent.

This seems to be a move to increase his bipartisan credentials in the eyes of some Republicans who might have viewed him as being a Democrat stand-in in 2014 (though those that think that probably won't vote for him anyway).

Funny enough, Doll used to be a Democrat and ran for the big first in 2006.

Good grief. Two opportunistic peas in a pod.

You can't win in far western Kansas as a Democrat, usually. And Doll is from Western Kansas. So - he made a right decision..

I don't necessarily agree. Dennis McKinney used to pull great numbers in West-Central Kansas. Eber Phelps, a longtime Representative from Hays and former Hays mayor (iirc), won back his seat over moderate Sue Boldra in 2016. Trump got around 75% here, although it's an ancestrally Democratic area way back. Heck, Daniel Love almost won the Dodge City House seat after dropping out the day after the filing deadline and not having his name taken off the ballot. Without campaigning, he was one mailer or two away from winning a deep red district. Granted, Love is a longtime judge there, but it goes to show that in Kansas, it's hard to write things off.

In 2006, despite getting creamed, John Doll got around 40% in Finney County. My guess is that he won Garden City proper and could probably win the corresponding state House seat as a Democrat.

Thanks for info. Of course - you are local, and i genralized somewhat, but let's consider a map of Kansas state House districts. How many distiricts west of Wichita are now held by Democrats? IIRC - exactly one, by Eber Phelps you mentioned. And in state Senate? Zero. So, i think, what i said is rather close to the truth...

Jason Probst has the Hutchinson-based HD 102, and Jolene Roitman hit 40% in HD 116. What I'm saying is not that it's easy to win out West, but that Democrats too often take a defeatist attitude. Orman's reasoning in picking Doll is probably that he wants to undercut Svaty. I don't think it'll work. If anything, picking Doll, who supports teachers carrying guns, will not play well with Orman's own base. This strange attempt at a balancing act, combined with all the mud that will be thrown at Orman from both sides, will cripple his campaign.

[VPH]

So is Vermin Supreme is running for Kansas AG?

Schmidt is running for a third term. To my knowledge there are no Democrats yet, but VPH might have more info on that.

I haven't heard of any Democrats running for Treasurer, AG, or Insurance Commissioner. I'm confident somebody will file. Maybe one of the names that was thrown around for governor but decided not to run? Senator Tom Holland (I heard the governor rumor last May from somebody who knows him well), Lawrence City Commissioner Mike Amyx, etc? Or more likely it'll be some random people.

[VPH]

Three big(ish) updates!

1. Minority Leader Jim Ward dropped out of the Gubernatorial Race. From what I've heard, it was mostly about the fact that he hasn't raised money well at all. However, there was an allegation of "inappropriate conduct" in the past, so maybe that factored into this. Regardless, this puts Wichita more into play than it was.
http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article210778999.html

2. Josh Svaty will be announcing his running mate soon (first Dem to do so). This is exciting! Today, Svaty was the only Democrat to appear at the McPherson County (25.32% Hillary) All Schools Parade, where 10,000-15,000 people lined the streets on the first day of summer break to watch floats pass by. Yet another example of how Svaty is campaigning all over the state!
https://www.facebook.com/SvatyforKansas/photos/a.1271345429629706.1073741829.1270533396377576/1601976799899899/?type=3&theater

3. State Senator Laura Kelly received the endorsement of former Sebelius budget director Duane Goosen. This is unsurprising considering her close relationship to Sebelius (they're neighbors and Sebelius' machine is bankrolling the Kelly campaign). The funny thing is that Kelly announced right after Ward dropped that she had a big endorsement, so everybody thought it was going to be Ward.
http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180510/duane-goossen-throws-support-behind-laura-kelly-in-kansas-governors-race

[VPH]

VPH, which Democrat do you think benefits the most from Ward's withdrawal? I would think it would help Brewer since he is now able to consolidate support in Wichita and is further to the left than Kelly or Svaty, but interested in hearing your take.

Initially, my thought was Brewer for that very reasoning. He's got by far the best name recognition in Wichita. The one big thing I think could hurt that is that his fundraising was somehow even weaker than Ward's. Will people take his campaign seriously enough for Ward dropping to boost him? Labor unions in Wichita were largely behind Ward, and now there's the question of whether or not they'll back Brewer (former organizer) or Svaty (who has heavy labor support in Wyandotte County). Kelly could stand to benefit too, but I haven't really seen her around South Central Kansas much, aside from going to Newton last week.

[VPH]

Secretary of State race could get interesting, especially if Brian McClendon (creator of Google Earth) wins the Democratic nomination. VPH, any insight on that primary? I would love to see Schwab take down Arnold on the GOP side - Schwab has butted heads with Kobach on a couple occasions over Kobach's criticism of the legislature.

Even if Democrats field a candidate in the three races (Treasurer, Insurance Commissioner, Attorney General) I don't see them being able to seriously contest any of them - Republicans have strong candidates in each race.

EDIT: Turns out Arnold dropped out in April and I missed it.

Francisco is respected among the liberal wing of the party but McClendon has money and tbh he could help fund a good coordinated campaign. I've heard Dems have candidates for Treasurer and Insurance Commissioner but I still haven't heard any names, so...

[VPH]

Joshua Svaty announced his running mate today-Katrina Lewison. Lewison is a West Point grad who flew Blackhawk helicopters in Iraq. She serves on the Manhattan, KS School Board and helps run a municipal government consulting firm. Lewison is originally from Hutchinson, Kansas (South Central KS) and also has a masters degree from Columbia.

Personally, I think she plays to his strengths and covers a couple of gaps. Being a leader in Manhattan reinforces Svaty's central Kansas credentials but also adds direct outreach in a college town, which is always helpful. Lewison is female, bringing gender balance to the ticket, and has been strongly pro-choice, which should assuage the fears of some. Lewison was also a registered independent who became a Democrat to join the ticket; this seems like an attempt to hit Orman and show that this ticket is dynamic. Lewison's Hutchinson roots help Svaty in South Central Kansas, and her background as a veteran should help in Leavenworth County and Sedgwick County, where there are large military bases (and it helps in the general obviously). All around, a stellar pick!

http://www.ksnt.com/news/local-news/svaty-announces-running-mate-for-lt-governor/1182393672?utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_KSNT_News

[VPH]

She is a strong pick and makes it more likely that I'll vote for Svaty over Kobach. Definitely shores up his base - it surprises me a little bit because I worry he's going to dominate rural areas but struggle in urban. Kelly will certainly win Shawnee and as a JoCo resident, she seems to have the edge in this area as well. Brewer should take care of Sedgwick, though I know you mentioned Svaty had some support down there. 2/3s of voters are in a small handful of cities (Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, JoCo, KCK) and I'm not convinced Svaty will win any of those areas. He'll have to rack up big margins in rural Kansas to win this, which he could very well do.

Svaty has good backing in Wyandotte too because Tom Burroughs and a number of KCK electeds (and their allied unions) are behind him.

[VPH]

State Senator Marci Francisco, who was running for Secretary of State, appears to have filed for State Treasurer, which ensures that that won't go uncontested. Still waiting on Democratic filings for Insurance Commissioner and Attorney General.
http://www.kssos.org/elections/elections_upcoming_candidate_display.asp

And on the GOP side for SoS, a former Brownback official has declared, which means there are four Republicans running.
http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180517/former-brownback-administration-official-running-for-kansas-secretary-of-state

[VPH]

GOP
http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180521/gop-governor-candidate-ken-selzer-picks-goodland-woman-as-running-mate

Insurance Commissioner Ken Selzer has picked his running-mate, Jenifer Sanderson. She appears to be a fast food restaurant owner from Goodland (population 5,000) in Northwest Kansas. A bit of a random pick if you ask me, and I don't know what she adds to the ticket.

Democrats
Carl Brewer is slated to pick his LtGov candidate tomorrow, and Laura Kelly later this week.
Anecdotally, I've heard that Brewer might pick former Wichita City Councilwoman Lavonta Williams or District 29 (North Wichita) State Senator Oletha Faust-Goudeau, both of whom are fantastic leaders. But I also heard that Senator Faust-Goudeau is not decided on who to support in the race. So make of that what you will... I would question the logic behind having an all-Wichita ticket, seeing as to how Sedgwick County will only cast ~20% of the statewide Dem primary vote. That's not enough to win.

Also anecdotally, I've heard that for Laura Kelly it could be Republican District 7 (Mission Hills) State Senator Barbara Bollier. Bollier is a liberal Republican endorsed by Planned Parenthood, the NEA, and the Mainstream Coalition. Her NRA rating is actually FAR lower than Senator Laura Kelly's... The hints that make this a guess for me are not only based on talk, but on the fact that if you scroll through Bollier's Facebook, she keeps referencing a big change/surprise coming up and has been sharing progressively more liberal articles. To boot, she basically endorsed Hays Democratic State Rep Eber Phelps for re-election a few days ago. Perhaps she's just going to switch parties to Independent or Democratic and stick around in the legislature, but I keep hearing that it would be a very Sebelius thing to push Kelly to pick her. On one hand, she's still a Republican. On the other, this could play well in vote-rich Johnson County in both the primary and general, probably at the expense of rural Kansas.

https://votesmart.org/candidate/evaluations/119434/barbara-bollier#.WwM70UgvzIU
https://www.facebook.com/barbara.bollier

Another name I've heard is District 25 (West-Central Wichita) first-term Senator Lynn Rogers. A former USD 259 School Board member and former Republican, Rogers is Kelly's current campaign treasurer. He's a good legislator, a very nice person, and a smart choice to angle for Wichita votes and lend education credentials to the ticket.

[VPH]

Carl Brewer has selected former Garnder, KS (Population 21,000) Mayor and Navy Veteran Chris Morrow as his running-mate. Morrow, as the vice-chair of the Johnson County Democrats, might boost Brewer in JoCo, but probably not by much. Overall geographically a much safer pick than what was rumored, but Morrow is also a boring speaker. I don't see him helping an awful lot on the trail or with fundraising.

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/kansas/articles/2018-05-22/brewer-picks-another-ex-mayor-kansas-governors-race-ticket

[VPH]

Well, there's Laura Kelly's pick! As I kinda predicted, she chose Senator Lynn Rogers (West-Central Wichita) who serves as her campaign manager. Lynn was a great school board member and has been fantastic in the Kansas Senate. He adds strength to the ticket in Wichita and probably fundraising strength as well. However, he was a Republican until he ran for Senate and has a conservative past, so it's not a pick that makes much sense for progressive outreach.

http://www.ksnt.com/news/kansas/kansas-governor-candidate-laura-kelly-announces-lynn-rogers-as-running-mate/1196392975

[VPH]

Looks like Laura Kelly's running-mate Lynn Rogers was endorsed by Kansans for Life in 2013. Considering a lot of Laura Kelly's support is made up of people uncomfortable with Joshua Svaty's handful of pro-life votes from 15 years ago, this is laughably ironic. It's a good line for Svaty to use!

[VPH]

I would imagine Svaty will try to avoid bringing up the pro-life issue at all costs. I'm a fan of KFL but unsure why they feel the need to weigh in on school district races.

Svaty has stated that he will veto additional restrictions and picked a staunchly pro-choice running mate. He's been pretty upfront in talking about the issue, which is refreshing because others might have just dodged questions. I don't think Svaty himself will be going there with that line on Kelly/Rogers, but some of his supporters are all over it.

It kinda baffles me why KFL weighs in on these local races that have nothing to do with abortion. I heard they even made an endorsement in the Wichita District 1 City Council race last year. Like what the heck does city council do that pertains to abortion? Clinic permits? Idk...

[VPH]

Jim Barnett (R) picks his wife as his running mate. Very little chance of winning; will probably end up with 8-10% of vote.

http://www.ksnt.com/news/kansas/jim-barnett-picks-wife-as-running-mate-for-lieutenant-governor/1210509345

I find this really funny, but also sadly telling. Moderates are more likely imo to pick Colyer to keep Kobach out. I ran into O'Malley a few weeks back and he told me he dropped out because he didn't see a path to victory for himself.

[VPH]

Two more strange things happened today in the weird world of Kansas politics!

1. Ron M. Estes has filed to run against Ron Estes in the KS-04 Republican primary. Yes, you read that correctly. Somebody with the same name as the incumbent Congressman is challenging him in the primary. He has a website, a Twitter (@RealRonEstes) and graphics that say "Vote for the Real Ron Estes". Comment from the Congressman's office was "This is clearly an attempt to deceive Kansas voters.”

I'm really curious to see how much of the vote Ron M. Estes can pull, and see whether or not this will make Congressman Estes waste his money in the primary. Knowing he's a bad fundraiser, this is even more comical.
https://twitter.com/RealRonEstes
http://www.realronestes.com/
http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article212306569.html#storylink=latest_side

2. No Democratic candidate has as of now filed for AG. This means... VERMIN SUPREME HAS DECIDED TO FILE. He's ponied up the filing fee and is filing as a Democrat for Attorney General tomorrow. Every half-serious politico in the state is hoping some other Democrat gets their act together and also files, but we're quite close to having a joke as a statewide candidate at this point. Today, a court decision found that out-of-state candidates for governor were not eligible, but I don't think the ruling applies to other row offices... This should be interesting.

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180531/vermin-supreme-dental-activist-horse-lover-to-file-as-candidate-for-kansas-attorney-general

[VPH]

Two more strange things happened today in the weird world of Kansas politics!

1. Ron M. Estes has filed to run against Ron Estes in the KS-04 Republican primary. Yes, you read that correctly. Somebody with the same name as the incumbent Congressman is challenging him in the primary. He has a website, a Twitter (@RealRonEstes) and graphics that say "Vote for the Real Ron Estes". Comment from the Congressman's office was "This is clearly an attempt to deceive Kansas voters.”

I'm really curious to see how much of the vote Ron M. Estes can pull, and see whether or not this will make Congressman Estes waste his money in the primary. Knowing he's a bad fundraiser, this is even more comical.
https://twitter.com/RealRonEstes
http://www.realronestes.com/
http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article212306569.html#storylink=latest_side

2. No Democratic candidate has as of now filed for AG. This means... VERMIN SUPREME HAS DECIDED TO FILE. He's ponied up the filing fee and is filing as a Democrat for Attorney General tomorrow. Every half-serious politico in the state is hoping some other Democrat gets their act together and also files, but we're quite close to having a joke as a statewide candidate at this point. Today, a court decision found that out-of-state candidates for governor were not eligible, but I don't think the ruling applies to other row offices... This should be interesting.

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180531/vermin-supreme-dental-activist-horse-lover-to-file-as-candidate-for-kansas-attorney-general

Jesus Christ, someone file for AG please, sheesh.

Sarah Swain, a well-known Lawrence attorney, has now filed. Rest assured our nominee will probably not be Vermin Supreme.

[VPH]

Going to do "Tmth Ratings" a few times leading up to the primary and then after on how I think the results would be if the election were today. I encourage VPH to do something similar so we can have two different perspectives!

Republican Primary:
Colyer: 42%
Kobach: 39%
Selzer: 9%
Barnett: 6%
Others: 4%

Democratic Primary:
Kelly: 41%
Svaty: 36%
Brewer: 16%
Others: 7%

General Election Ratings:
Governor/Lt. Governor: Lean Republican
Secretary of State: Likely Republican
Attorney General: Safe Republican
Treasurer: Safe Republican
Insurance Commissioner: Safe Republican
State Legislature: Safe Republican - Democrats pick up 1-5 seats, will be very difficult to predict until after primary

I'm a little late to the game because I've been super busy but here's my take on the race rn. I agree with most of your thoughts on this!
Republican Primary:
Colyer: 41%
Kobach: 40%
Barnett: 10%
Selzer: 7%
Others: 2%

Democratic Primary:
Svaty: 42%
Kelly: 42%
Brewer: 14%
Others: 3%

General Election Ratings:
Governor/Lt. Governor: Lean Republican but this is super contingent on what happens with Greg Orman-Does he take GOP moderates? Does he fall flat? Does he take socially liberal Democrats?
Secretary of State: Likely Republican-McClendon is a very unique candidate with a lot of money. Could be interesting but an uphill climb to say the least.
Attorney General: Safe Republican
Treasurer: Safe Republican
Insurance Commissioner: Safe Republican
State Legislature: Safe Republican - I think Dems pick up 3-5 seats, a few in Johnson County and then potential wild cards like:
-The 85th, where Michael Capps (GOP) doesn't even live in the district and the Democratic candidate is well-known activist Monica Marks.
-The 97th, where Democrat Rebecca Jenek is putting together a formidable campaign in this open seat.

That being said, I'm pretty concerned about holding some of our current seats. Namely, the 79th will be rough. Trump won 70% in the district and incumbent Ed Trimmer, a great legislator, won by <100 votes in 2012 and by 17 votes in 2014. He's one of my favorite reps, and he's campaigning hard. His website is quite the throwback! http://edtrimmer.com/

[VPH]

Kansas Democrats had their only televised debate last night!
http://www.kwch.com/content/news/Democratic-Gubernatorial-Forum-Tonight-487902871.html

Josh Svaty did very well, and Laura Kelly and Carl Brewer underwhelmed. The WHOLE debate, teenager Jack Bergeson was going after Laura Kelly and she simply didn't answer his attacks. Brewer seemed kinda flustered.