Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I was at Washington Days (our Dem convention) yesterday and saw the shape of the race.

Each candidate had a table, minus the some-guys. They were giving out stickers/buttons and stuff, and Brewer was the only one selling his items. Svaty's table had the most people stopping by (maybe the delicious homemade kolaches helped out...) and there were tons of people walking around with Svaty buttons on. His supporters showed up in force, including me. Ward had the second most supporters there for sure.

During the debate, Svaty clearly won, and fans of other candidates were telling me this. His energy and rhetoric stood out, and he was very specific, especially on the healthcare question. Ward did decent, talked about his record and threw some progressive red meat. Laura Kelly just seemed absent. She was sleepy, stumbling, and didn't seem at all confident. Brewer was okay but fumbled a few questions and didn't say much. In terms of the minor candidates, Jack Bergeson (the kid) was the only one to bring up the sales tax on food and the first to talk about marijuana reform. Robert Klingberg was, well, Robert Klingberg-just said some random things about being an average guy. Arden Andersen, however, was wacko. Dude brought up autism/"growing numbers of developmental disorders" in every speech and appeared on the verge of an antivax rant. What a character...

Overall, I think Washington Days shows that the Democratic frontrunners are Svaty, Kelly, and Ward to a lesser extent. Brewer is rapidly falling behind and it wouldn't shock me if he dropped out. Kelly doesn't seem like she's in the race (Sebelius was working the room before dinner while Kelly sat at her table, even as Ward, Brewer, and Svaty worked the room), but she's got the Sebelius machine. Svaty has energy and a dynamic campaign team, but not necessarily the party establishment. Ward has a lot of progressive Dem activists, but not the money he needs. For that matter, I heard that labor won't be big on Ward because of how he took down Tom Burroughs, who has a lot of standing among Wyandotte County unions, as minority leader a few years back.

Will definitely be an interesting race moving forward!

It's good to hear that Svaty is on point. I heard him at a small event in eastern KS (long story) and was super unimpressed. But it was also relatively late in the evening and in front of like 18 geriatric county dems, so he could have been forgiven for being low energy and wonky.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Greg Orman has chosen Kansas State Representative John Doll, who before becoming an independent in joining the ticket was a moderate Republican.

https://www.ormanforkansas.com/about_john_doll

He will now be the Kansas Legislature's only independent.

This seems to be a move to increase his bipartisan credentials in the eyes of some Republicans who might have viewed him as being a Democrat stand-in in 2014 (though those that think that probably won't vote for him anyway).

Funny enough, Doll used to be a Democrat and ran for the big first in 2006.

Good grief. Two opportunistic peas in a pod.

You can't win in far western Kansas as a Democrat, usually. And Doll is from Western Kansas. So - he made a right decision..

I don't necessarily agree. Dennis McKinney used to pull great numbers in West-Central Kansas. Eber Phelps, a longtime Representative from Hays and former Hays mayor (iirc), won back his seat over moderate Sue Boldra in 2016. Trump got around 75% here, although it's an ancestrally Democratic area way back. Heck, Daniel Love almost won the Dodge City House seat after dropping out the day after the filing deadline and not having his name taken off the ballot. Without campaigning, he was one mailer or two away from winning a deep red district. Granted, Love is a longtime judge there, but it goes to show that in Kansas, it's hard to write things off.

In 2006, despite getting creamed, John Doll got around 40% in Finney County. My guess is that he won Garden City proper and could probably win the corresponding state House seat as a Democrat.

It really depends where you are. I wouldn't expect someone from Greeley county to encounter a great degree of success, but yeah, the commercial centers (so Ford, Finney, Reno counties +/- Ellis and Ellsworth) have been hospitable in the past. I was shocked that we didn't even field a Garden City state rep candidate last cycle, do you know if there's someone running this time?


(actually fun facts, I'm in the process of writing my BA on the political/economic history of western/central Kansas in the 1960s-1980s. )


Edit: Actually to this point, worth noting that Svaty came from a place where Dems have had comparative success in the region - his uncle was a pretty influential chair back in the 80s when he was growing up.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I do hope that Svaty runs for something if he doesn't win tomorrow. He is definitely one of the better Dem candidates this cycle.

I've spent a pretty substantial amount of time volunteering for the campaign from wherever I happen to be and Josh has been nothing short of an inspiration to me. Hopefully, he stays in KS and runs again, unlike Raj Goyle, who was one of the last young stars to captivate Kansas Dems. After Goyle lost to Pompeo in 2010, he left for NYC.

I mean all of his career options seem to involve the central/southern plains at a minimum. If he loses I'd expect him to go back to the Land Institute for a while.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

I do hope that Svaty runs for something if he doesn't win tomorrow. He is definitely one of the better Dem candidates this cycle.

I've spent a pretty substantial amount of time volunteering for the campaign from wherever I happen to be and Josh has been nothing short of an inspiration to me. Hopefully, he stays in KS and runs again, unlike Raj Goyle, who was one of the last young stars to captivate Kansas Dems. After Goyle lost to Pompeo in 2010, he left for NYC.

I mean all of his career options seem to involve the central/southern plains at a minimum. If he loses I'd expect him to go back to the Land Institute for a while.

He's young enough to run again in 2022 if Kelly loses

yeah, the LI is in Salina and would be a perfect landing pad for another run.


Though when I saw him last summer, it sounded like he had developed interests in integrated renewable energy systems? IDK, in any case I don't really think he's a "flight risk" for Kansans, so to speak.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Ugh.

Can we bribe Orman with a cabinet position in the next Dem administration in exchange for dropping out?

 no.

can we promise him one and then renege?

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Kelly needs to encourage Orman to drop out and be a running mate on a unity ticket of sorts.

Seriously, if I was Orman I'd jump at the opportunity. This is by far the best chance he has for statewide office.

He's a moderate independent rich guy. He is absolutely full of himself.

I am reminded of the constant humility shown by ACO and Bernie Sanders.

Those two are not that full of themselves. Helping other candidates and campaigning doesnt make you full of themselves. Running an indie campaign in a state where your aligned party would win, such as Indie Con Trillo in RI, or Orman in KS, is being full of yourself.

IMHO - they are. Imagine himself as Kingmakers, and trying to play this role, is (especially in case of AOC, who is nobody yet) exactly that.

Kingmaker? Of what? Who have they played kingmaker for? All Ive seen them do is campaign and endorse candidates, which is what Harris, Biden, Booker, and Gillibrand have done.

Name one race that they played kingmaker for.

They behave identically with Harris, Biden and so on. I understand that in Sanders case, But repeat - AOC is a nobody (future congresswoman from 1 of 435 districts), and behaves identically. As if HER personal support matters something...

I would like to remind you that Seth Moulton, Tim Ryan, and Joe Kennedy have done the same thing. If people want her endorsement, then she is allowed to endorse, nothing wrong with that.

Engaging with Smoltchanov is never worth it, man. It's just not.

[Shameless Lefty Hack]

Quit hijacking my state’s thread. We don’t get attention that often so I’d like for this to stay focused on what’s actually happening in Kansas.

^ yeah, I'm actually quite interested in the recount lol.