Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[tmthforu94]

Republican Ticket: Kris Kobach/Wink Hartman
Democratic Ticket: Laura Kelly/Lynn Rogers
Independent: Greg Orman/John Doll

Down-ballot Races:
Secretary of State: Scott Schwab vs. Brian McClendon
Treasurer: Jake LaTurner vs. Marci Francisco
Attorney General: Derek Schmidt* vs. Sarah Swain
Insurance Commissioner: Vicki Schmidtvs. Nathan McLaughlin


TMTH RATINGS

General Election Ratings:
Governor/Lt. Governor: Tilt Democratic
Secretary of State: Likely Republican
Attorney General: Safe Republican
Treasurer: Safe Republican
Insurance Commissioner: Safe Republican
State Legislature: Safe Republican - Democrats pick up 11-15 seats

[tmthforu94]

Tracey Mann selected as Lt. Governor

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http://www.wibw.com/content/news/Tracey-Mann-named-new-Kansas-Lt-Gov-473989153.html

[tmthforu94]

Tracey Mann selected as Lt. Governor

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http://www.wibw.com/content/news/Tracey-Mann-named-new-Kansas-Lt-Gov-473989153.html

Is he a dog?

No. The dog got disqualified

[tmthforu94]

I would personally like Hartman (I met him several times, as I grew up in Wichita), although he has a snowball's chance in hell of winning.

Definitely a longshot, but there is a chance. Has to build up name recognition, I have heard very little of him here in Johnson County, he wouldn't get 5% here if the election were today.

Colyer made a strong choice today - Mann is a good guy. Very popular with agriculture community, should really help Colyer shore up votes with with a big block that has been up for grabs.

[tmthforu94]

http://media.kansascity.com/livegraphics/2018/pdf/KS-GOP-Primary-Survey021518.pdf

Jim Barnett: 8%
Jeff Colyer: 23%
Wink Hartman: 5%
Mark Hutton: 3%
Kris Kobach: 21%
Ken Selzer: 3%
Undecided: 37%

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http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article200390604.html

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[tmthforu94]

http://media.kansascity.com/livegraphics/2018/pdf/KS-GOP-Primary-Survey021518.pdf

Jim Barnett: 8%
Jeff Colyer: 23%
Wink Hartman: 5%
Mark Hutton: 3%
Kris Kobach: 21%
Ken Selzer: 3%
Undecided: 37%

Good poll for Colyer

Agreed - he has a lot of room to grow. This strongly suggests that if Colyer has a good legislative session, he'll be the strong favorite in August.

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There was a GOP debate last night - Colyer did not participate due to illness:

http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article200782649.html

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Is Colyer on the Brownback or establishment wing of the Kansas Republican Party? Or in between?

The lines are getting blurry between "Brownback vs. Anti-Brownback" and "conservative vs. moderate." Colyer is definitely a Brownback Republican, but at the same time, those who oppose Brownback are very likely to support Colyer over Kobach. At this point, there isn't a strong moderate or anti-Brownback candidate in the race. Rather than a referendum on Brownback, this election will likely be a referendum on Kobach.

[tmthforu94]

http://media.kansascity.com/livegraphics/2018/pdf/KS-GOP-Primary-Survey021518.pdf

Jim Barnett: 8%
Jeff Colyer: 23%
Wink Hartman: 5%
Mark Hutton: 3%
Kris Kobach: 21%
Ken Selzer: 3%
Undecided: 37%

Good poll for Colyer

Agreed - he has a lot of room to grow. This strongly suggests that if Colyer has a good legislative session, he'll be the strong favorite in August.

I’m starting to think the GE may not be as close as expected if he’s the nominee and the legislative session goes well.  The SoS race could be close-ish, but I think it’s probably fool’s gold.  I think the big win for the Democrats in Kansas this cycle will be KS-2 (folks are really underestimating how likely this seat is to flip).  KS-4 will still be closer than it should be, but we had our chance there.

KS-3 could flip, but only if the wave sweeps out Yoder.  He’s a strong incumbent facing decidedly unimpressive opposition (I’m a bit baffled the Democrats couldn’t get a stronger recruit to run here tbh, they kinda dropped the ball), but it is also exactly the type of place where you’d expect Trump to be absolutely toxic to the GOP brand (please correct me if I’m wrong).  Honestly, the district is among the harder ones for me to predict, but right now I think Yoder will eek out a narrow victory (and possibly be a top target in 2020).

Since you’re one of our resident Kansans, I’d be curious to hear your thoughts about these races.

I mostly agree with you, I think the 2nd isn't getting as much attention as it should. The 3rd is still most likely to flip, it voted for Crooked Hillary in 2016. Luckily for Yoder, the strongest candidate had to drop out over sexual harassment accusations. Niermann is probably the favorite in the primary but he'll face a tough challenge against Yoder, the national mood is going to have to get more favorable for Democrats.

The 2nd is almost the opposite - Democrats have a strong candidate but Republicans are scrambling a bit. I honestly have no clue who will win that primary, but whoever it is will have to quickly coalesce the party because at this point, I doubt the winner gets more than 40% of the vote share. However, the district is much more Republican than the 3rd so despite Republican flaws in recruiting, they should still be favored. I would say Fitzgerald is the favorite at this point and he's been controversial in the past.

[tmthforu94]

I'm honestly surprised Kobach jumped into this race rather than wait for Roberts likely retirement in 2020. I would figure his lust for attention and controversy would be better suited for the senate rather than as a small state governor. He also strikes me as a man with presidential aspirations/delusions and governor of Kansas isn't exactly going to be a good springboard for that.

Yeah this surprised me too.

Any sense who the likely replacement for Roberts is? Marshall, maybe? Or Derek Schmidt?

Agreed, Kobach thinks he is going to be president one day, running for senate would have made more sense.

As for Roberts' replacement, I have heard some rumblings that he is thinking of running again, though I suspect he ultimately will decide not to. Yoder and Marshall are both planning to run, though Yoder will have to survive reelection in 2018 first.

[tmthforu94]

Wink Hartman drops out, endorses Kobach.

http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article201363334.html

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[tmthforu94]

It all depends on how Orman is branded. Does he maintain a "quasi-Democrat" aura from 2014 or does he look like a "JoCo moderate GOPer"?

Orman's best shot as third-party is if Ward and Kobach win their respective primaries, as both IMO are the extremes of their party. I think he's going to have a hard time cultivating a base of support if Democrats nominate Svaty. I also think the race will be over if Colyer wins the primary - enough moderate Republicans will hold their nose and vote for him over Orman/Democratic nominee.

[tmthforu94]

Isaac, I understand it's part and parcel with being a republican in Kansas, but you do realize that reiterating the phrase crooked Hillary, All Things Considered, ahem, makes you sound like a douche?

I won't shy away from the truth - she is crooked. Most politicians are, honestly.


VPH, I appreciate your insight - I am most surprised that Kelly was that uninterested, in my mind she was the frontrunner but acting like that almost makes her sound arrogant. Regarding Orman - what do you think the chances are that he'd jump on as Lt. Governor for a Democrat? Or that the Democratic nominee becomes his Lt. Governor? That seems to be the only option for either to win (IMO) and I wouldn't be shocked if the race approached Sebelius margins.

[tmthforu94]

Kobach selects Hartman as his Lt. Governor candidate

http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article206248779.html

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Another candidate will be running on the Republican side.

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Another candidate will be running on the Republican side.

4 month before primary. Is it not too late to begin from scratch?

Perhaps they aren't beginning from scratch.

[tmthforu94]

Poll from the Docking Institute: https://fhsu.edu/docking/Kansas-Speaks/kansas-governors-race-poll-spring-20181.pdf

Kobach, Orman and Colyer all clear 50% name recognition. Highest Democrat is Carl Brewer at 38.4%.

Favorable Ratings (Positive/Not Positive)
Laura Kelly (D) - 52/11 (+41)
Josh Svaty (D) - 52/13) (+39)
Carl Brewer (D) - 47/14 (+33)
Jim Ward (D) - 42/11 (+31)
Greg Orman (D) - 33/15 (+18)
Jeff Colyer (R) - 29/30 (-1)
Kris Kobach (R) - 30/50 (-20)

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The poll indicates high enthusiasm from Democrats - they all seemed to mark "favorable" even for Democrats they hadn't heard of, while Republicans were mot neutral on their candidates. On the same line, Republicans didn't just automatically say "unfavorable" for each Democrat,  while Democrats did that for Republicans.

It's a shame they didn't actually poll the primaries or do general election matchups - that would have given us a clearer idea of what was happening.

[tmthforu94]

So is Vermin Supreme is running for Kansas AG?

Schmidt is running for a third term. To my knowledge there are no Democrats yet, but VPH might have more info on that.

[tmthforu94]

Former candidate Mark Hutton endorses Governor Colyer

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http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article209723804.html

[tmthforu94]

VPH, which Democrat do you think benefits the most from Ward's withdrawal? I would think it would help Brewer since he is now able to consolidate support in Wichita and is further to the left than Kelly or Svaty, but interested in hearing your take.

[tmthforu94]

As we discussed a couple weeks ago....an article about the fact that Democrats currently have no candidates for 3/5 of statewide offices.

http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article211100969.html

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Also:

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[tmthforu94]

Secretary of State race could get interesting, especially if Brian McClendon (creator of Google Earth) wins the Democratic nomination. VPH, any insight on that primary? I would love to see Schwab take down Arnold on the GOP side - Schwab has butted heads with Kobach on a couple occasions over Kobach's criticism of the legislature.

Even if Democrats field a candidate in the three races (Treasurer, Insurance Commissioner, Attorney General) I don't see them being able to seriously contest any of them - Republicans have strong candidates in each race.

EDIT: Turns out Arnold dropped out in April and I missed it.

[tmthforu94]

She is a strong pick and makes it more likely that I'll vote for Svaty over Kobach. Definitely shores up his base - it surprises me a little bit because I worry he's going to dominate rural areas but struggle in urban. Kelly will certainly win Shawnee and as a JoCo resident, she seems to have the edge in this area as well. Brewer should take care of Sedgwick, though I know you mentioned Svaty had some support down there. 2/3s of voters are in a small handful of cities (Wichita, Topeka, Lawrence, JoCo, KCK) and I'm not convinced Svaty will win any of those areas. He'll have to rack up big margins in rural Kansas to win this, which he could very well do.

[tmthforu94]

Any recent news on Orman?

Also, has there been polling of any kind?

http://media.kansascity.com/livegraphics/2018/pdf/Poll-gov-race1.pdf

This just got released yesterday for the GOP primary, Colyer leads.

To my knowledge there haven't been any polling for general election. Would be a lot of questions considering all of the candidates.