Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[junior chįmp]

Noted clown Orman continues to be a clown

[smoltchanov]

On the bright side, this is probably the peak time for Orman to be polling. On the downside, Svaty doesn’t look likely to get the nomination

He should run for Senate in 2020 when Pat Roberts likely retires if he loses the primary.

Nah, even in an open seat race that’d just be a suicide run. The only realistic way I could see a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kansas is if a popular Democratic Governor was able to win on personal popularity. Think back to those hypothetical polls showing Kathleen Sebelius up by double digits for the open senate race in 2010 before she was tapped for HHS.

Svaty is young enough to serve as Governor, and if he were to succeed there, make a Senate run. Kelly is way too old.

I'm not a big fan of Laura Kelly but I disagree that she's "too old".

IIRC - Kelly represents 57% Trump district, and, at the same time, has strongly liberal reputation. The first factor (an ability to win such district) is a plus, the second - probably, a minus, especially against "slightly more sane" Colyer.  May be - moderate liberal would be better in such case?

Laura Kelly's really not that liberal. She had an NRA A+ rating, voted to ban the governor from expanding Medicaid, and voted for Kobach's voter ID. Arguably, the most liberal candidate (aside from the teenager) in the race right now is Josh Svaty.

And she’s the front runner for the Democrats??? How?

Kansas is NOT especially liberal state. That's true for Democrats too to some extent..

2 VPH Thanks!

That doesn't make it okay to support Voter ID's or be against expanding medicaid.

That's your opinion. Probably - state Senator Kelly thinks differently, and she is entitled to HER opinion.

[VPH]

Senate President Susan Wagle endorsed Kobach for Governor.

https://twitter.com/KrisKobach1787/status/1022157227816312832

[VPH]

KS-03 updates!
Over the last week since his rally with Bernie and AOC, Brent Welder raised $110,000. IN A WEEK.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399107-dem-candidate-raises-110k-in-week-after-ocasio-cortez-sanders-visit

State Rep. Cindy Holscher, a rising star in the Kansas Democratic Party, endorsed Sharice Davids!
https://www.facebook.com/ShariceforCongress/photos/a.1989976834583558.1073741829.1977738355807406/2086468281601079/?type=3

This race is going to go down to the wire. Very exciting!

[smoltchanov]

KS-03 updates!
Over the last week since his rally with Bernie and AOC, Brent Welder raised $110,000. IN A WEEK.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399107-dem-candidate-raises-110k-in-week-after-ocasio-cortez-sanders-visit

State Rep. Cindy Holscher, a rising star in the Kansas Democratic Party, endorsed Sharice Davids!
https://www.facebook.com/ShariceforCongress/photos/a.1989976834583558.1073741829.1977738355807406/2086468281601079/?type=3

This race is going to go down to the wire. Very exciting!

Welder may win primary, but, most likely, will be disastrous GE candidate. This district is very dissimilar to AOC district....

[YE]

KS-03 updates!
Over the last week since his rally with Bernie and AOC, Brent Welder raised $110,000. IN A WEEK.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399107-dem-candidate-raises-110k-in-week-after-ocasio-cortez-sanders-visit

State Rep. Cindy Holscher, a rising star in the Kansas Democratic Party, endorsed Sharice Davids!
https://www.facebook.com/ShariceforCongress/photos/a.1989976834583558.1073741829.1977738355807406/2086468281601079/?type=3

This race is going to go down to the wire. Very exciting!

Welder may win primary, but, most likely, will be disastrous GE candidate. This district is very dissimilar to AOC district....

Welder doesn't seem that different from Kara Eastman. She isn't doomed and the two districts are rather similar (both urban midwestern seats).

[smoltchanov]

KS-03 updates!
Over the last week since his rally with Bernie and AOC, Brent Welder raised $110,000. IN A WEEK.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399107-dem-candidate-raises-110k-in-week-after-ocasio-cortez-sanders-visit

State Rep. Cindy Holscher, a rising star in the Kansas Democratic Party, endorsed Sharice Davids!
https://www.facebook.com/ShariceforCongress/photos/a.1989976834583558.1073741829.1977738355807406/2086468281601079/?type=3

This race is going to go down to the wire. Very exciting!

Welder may win primary, but, most likely, will be disastrous GE candidate. This district is very dissimilar to AOC district....

Welder doesn't seem that different from Kara Eastman. She isn't doomed and the two districts are rather similar (both urban midwestern seats).

Yoder is more experienced then Bacon. And, generally, i am extremely skeptical about "bold progreesive's" chances in rather rich suburban districts. I may be wrong, but i don't see Eastman victory either.

[ON Progressive]

KS-03 updates!
Over the last week since his rally with Bernie and AOC, Brent Welder raised $110,000. IN A WEEK.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399107-dem-candidate-raises-110k-in-week-after-ocasio-cortez-sanders-visit

State Rep. Cindy Holscher, a rising star in the Kansas Democratic Party, endorsed Sharice Davids!
https://www.facebook.com/ShariceforCongress/photos/a.1989976834583558.1073741829.1977738355807406/2086468281601079/?type=3

This race is going to go down to the wire. Very exciting!

Welder may win primary, but, most likely, will be disastrous GE candidate. This district is very dissimilar to AOC district....

Welder doesn't seem that different from Kara Eastman. She isn't doomed and the two districts are rather similar (both urban midwestern seats).

Yoder is more experienced then Bacon. And, generally, i am extremely skeptical about "bold progreesive's" chances in rather rich suburban districts. I may be wrong, but i don't see Eastman victory either.

I do agree that Welder would lose, but that would be because he's a carpetbagger, not his ideology. Most voters aren't consistently ideological at all.

As for Eastman, she will probably win. She's a very skilled campaigner (as shown by her primary win) and isn't as liberal as Atlas thinks. She's a standard Democrat, quite honestly.

[smoltchanov]

KS-03 updates!
Over the last week since his rally with Bernie and AOC, Brent Welder raised $110,000. IN A WEEK.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399107-dem-candidate-raises-110k-in-week-after-ocasio-cortez-sanders-visit

State Rep. Cindy Holscher, a rising star in the Kansas Democratic Party, endorsed Sharice Davids!
https://www.facebook.com/ShariceforCongress/photos/a.1989976834583558.1073741829.1977738355807406/2086468281601079/?type=3

This race is going to go down to the wire. Very exciting!

Welder may win primary, but, most likely, will be disastrous GE candidate. This district is very dissimilar to AOC district....

Welder doesn't seem that different from Kara Eastman. She isn't doomed and the two districts are rather similar (both urban midwestern seats).

Yoder is more experienced then Bacon. And, generally, i am extremely skeptical about "bold progreesive's" chances in rather rich suburban districts. I may be wrong, but i don't see Eastman victory either.

I do agree that Welder would lose, but that would be because he's a carpetbagger, not his ideology. Most voters aren't consistently ideological at all.

As for Eastman, she will probably win. She's a very skilled campaigner (as shown by her primary win) and isn't as liberal as Atlas thinks. She's a standard Democrat, quite honestly.

Well, that changes situation. Standard Democrat can win that district (at least - in good year). Ultraliberal - unlikely.

[VPH]

Welder is absolutely more liberal than Eastman. I don't know that it's good for Kansas 3rd District Democrats to nominate somebody who's far to the left of the Johnson County portion of the district. Also as others have stated, he's a Missourian. Sylvia Williams finally hit the airwaves and her ad ends with "we need a real Kansan", which is a clear attack against Welder. Moreover, purely anecdotally (so take it with a grain of salt), I've heard Welder was a bit of a sore loser a the DNC, booing John Lewis and stuff.

[tmthforu94]

The 3rd is my home district - part of me would LOVE for Welder to win because I think he is the most beatable, but he still has an outside shot at winning. He'd get thrashed in a normal year - he isn't a true Kansan and is way too liberal for the district. Ultimately I want to ensure my district has the best representative possible so am cheering for Niermann. I think he would excel at constituent services, which is a big issue for me.

[smoltchanov]

The 3rd is my home district - part of me would LOVE for Welder to win because I think he is the most beatable, but he still has an outside shot at winning. He'd get thrashed in a normal year - he isn't a true Kansan and is way too liberal for the district. Ultimately I want to ensure my district has the best representative possible so am cheering for Niermann. I think he would excel at constituent services, which is a big issue for me.

Well, if Niermann wins Bollier will have a set to run for in 2020)))))

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

COME ON GREG ORMAN

He's probably gonna go for Pat Roberts in 2020, again, should Kelly win the Gubernatorial election and I expect her to.

[tmthforu94]

https://www.kansas.com/opinion/editorials/article215654245.html
https://www.kansas.com/opinion/editorials/article215653550.html

The Wichita Eagle, the most notable paper in Kansas, endorses Laura Kelly for Democratic primary and Jim Barnett for the GOP nomination. Kelly makes sense, but endorsing Barnett is a joke. He has little chance at winning (his wife is his Lt. Governor) and this is a missed opportunity to help stop Kobach.

[BuckeyeNut]

https://www.kansas.com/opinion/editorials/article215654245.html
https://www.kansas.com/opinion/editorials/article215653550.html

The Wichita Eagle, the most notable paper in Kansas, endorses Laura Kelly for Democratic primary and Jim Barnett for the GOP nomination. Kelly makes sense, but endorsing Barnett is a joke. He has little chance at winning (his wife is his Lt. Governor) and this is a missed opportunity to help stop Kobach.

Might this be intentional? How does The Wichita Eagle normally endorse in the GE?

Not that newspaper endorsements matter.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This race is a sleeper race; however, its time for a Democratic Governor in the state of KS.

[VPH]

https://www.kansas.com/opinion/editorials/article215654245.html
https://www.kansas.com/opinion/editorials/article215653550.html

The Wichita Eagle, the most notable paper in Kansas, endorses Laura Kelly for Democratic primary and Jim Barnett for the GOP nomination. Kelly makes sense, but endorsing Barnett is a joke. He has little chance at winning (his wife is his Lt. Governor) and this is a missed opportunity to help stop Kobach.

Might this be intentional? How does The Wichita Eagle normally endorse in the GE?

Not that newspaper endorsements matter.

Usually GOP and more moderate but they break for Democrats sometimes. They even endorsed Ron Estes in the 2017 special election.
Their 2016 endorsement list is headlined by mostly GOP endorsements at the top of the ticket, but a good number of Democrats for State House. The Eagle's been pretty anti-Brownback. Quite sure they endorsed Paul Davis in 204.
https://www.kansas.com/opinion/editorials/article113035768.html

[VPH]

Looks like Svaty is doomed. He’s not even on air as far as I can tell with any ads. Or is that not true, @VPH?

He's not on air, but I don't think it matters that much. Laura Kelly touted a $140,000 ad buy in a press release and then canceled the vast majority of that the same morning. That's a bad look. Brewer's made a tiny buy on TV. Svaty's focus is on radio ads (which work well in Kansas) and targeted social media. Just in the last 3 weeks, his FB videos have over 125,000 views.

We get to see finances today!!

[tmthforu94]

Huge endorsement: Kansas icon and national hero Bob Dole endorses Jeff Colyer https://twitter.com/HunterMw/status/1023932472252420096?s=20

[KingSweden]

Huge endorsement: Kansas icon and national hero Bob Dole endorses Jeff Colyer https://twitter.com/HunterMw/status/1023932472252420096?s=20

Good. Take down Kobach, Bob!

[smoltchanov]

Huge endorsement: Kansas icon and national hero Bob Dole endorses Jeff Colyer https://twitter.com/HunterMw/status/1023932472252420096?s=20

Well, Dole was always solid conservative, but never -  reactionary. Kobach - is.

[VPH]

Looks like Svaty is doomed. He’s not even on air as far as I can tell with any ads. Or is that not true, @VPH?

He's not on air, but I don't think it matters that much. Laura Kelly touted a $140,000 ad buy in a press release and then canceled the vast majority of that the same morning. That's a bad look. Brewer's made a tiny buy on TV. Svaty's focus is on radio ads (which work well in Kansas) and targeted social media. Just in the last 3 weeks, his FB videos have over 125,000 views.

We get to see finances today!!

Well that’s good to hear. Who do you think is the favorite in the D primary? It sounds like Kobach is a nominal favorite for the R primary and he sounds like a dream come true for Svaty, clown Orman aside.

I don't think there's a clear-cut favorite a week out. Because we don't have great numbers for the Dem side, what he have are anecdotes. Anecdotally, I've been calling Johnson County Democrats and many of them are undecided! So I have no idea how it'll break down but imo JoCo will be the bellwether. Brewer probably wins Sedgwick and Wyandotte counties (where he has campaigned a lot) although Josh could win Wyandotte (lots of elected/machine support there). Svaty wins rural areas and smaller city counties like Harvey, Reno, Saline, Atchison, Crawford, etc. Kelly wins Topeka and probably Douglas counties. Johnson County and who finishes second in Sedgwick will matter bigtime. Gonna be close!

[tmthforu94]

I know yard signs and television ads aren't necessarily an indicator, but here is what I'm seeing as a JoCo resident:
Republicans
Colyer has a huge sign advantage, Kobach and Selzer are about neck and neck. I expect this is how the county will vote - Colyer polls in the mid-40s, followed by Kobach and Selzer right behind (JoCo is Selzer's base).
Colyer has a lot more ads on television, though I did see my first anti-Colyer/ACLU advertisement last night.

Democrats
I've seen a few Svaty signs here and there, I don't think I've seen a single one for Kelly or Brewer in south JoCo. Most Democrats in the county I know are supporting Kelly, a sizable chunk for Svaty and a LOT are undecided, as VPH indicated. Kelly has had the most television ads, I see hers run several times a day. I've seen Svaty and Brewer ads once or twice. I think this race could end up anywhere from a moderate (10%) Kelly win to a narrow Svaty win.

[RogueBeaver]

Some fundraising numbers: Kelly $573k raised, $236k COH. Svaty: 213/36. Orman: 880/1.3M.

[tmthforu94]

https://www.kansas.com/opinion/editorials/article215657110.html

Revising my thought that the SoS was in the bag - Taylor has a chance here, it's not as certain as I initially thought.

Some fundraising numbers: Kelly $573k raised, $236k COH. Svaty: 213/36. Orman: 880/1.3M.

Yeah, not good for Svaty, Kelly looks to wrap this up.