Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[tmthforu94]

Republican Ticket: Kris Kobach/Wink Hartman
Democratic Ticket: Laura Kelly/Lynn Rogers
Independent: Greg Orman/John Doll

Down-ballot Races:
Secretary of State: Scott Schwab vs. Brian McClendon
Treasurer: Jake LaTurner vs. Marci Francisco
Attorney General: Derek Schmidt* vs. Sarah Swain
Insurance Commissioner: Vicki Schmidtvs. Nathan McLaughlin


TMTH RATINGS

General Election Ratings:
Governor/Lt. Governor: Tilt Democratic
Secretary of State: Likely Republican
Attorney General: Safe Republican
Treasurer: Safe Republican
Insurance Commissioner: Safe Republican
State Legislature: Safe Republican - Democrats pick up 11-15 seats

[Sestak]

C'mon, pick the dog!

[VPH]

Minor Democratic candidates include:
Jack Bergeson (Teenager from Wichita)
Robert Klingenberg (Random guy from Salina)
Arden Andersen (Doctor from JoCo)

[tmthforu94]

Tracey Mann selected as Lt. Governor

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http://www.wibw.com/content/news/Tracey-Mann-named-new-Kansas-Lt-Gov-473989153.html

[Sestak]

Tracey Mann selected as Lt. Governor

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http://www.wibw.com/content/news/Tracey-Mann-named-new-Kansas-Lt-Gov-473989153.html

Is he a dog?

[tmthforu94]

Tracey Mann selected as Lt. Governor

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http://www.wibw.com/content/news/Tracey-Mann-named-new-Kansas-Lt-Gov-473989153.html

Is he a dog?

No. The dog got disqualified

[tmthforu94]

I would personally like Hartman (I met him several times, as I grew up in Wichita), although he has a snowball's chance in hell of winning.

Definitely a longshot, but there is a chance. Has to build up name recognition, I have heard very little of him here in Johnson County, he wouldn't get 5% here if the election were today.

Colyer made a strong choice today - Mann is a good guy. Very popular with agriculture community, should really help Colyer shore up votes with with a big block that has been up for grabs.

[tmthforu94]

http://media.kansascity.com/livegraphics/2018/pdf/KS-GOP-Primary-Survey021518.pdf

Jim Barnett: 8%
Jeff Colyer: 23%
Wink Hartman: 5%
Mark Hutton: 3%
Kris Kobach: 21%
Ken Selzer: 3%
Undecided: 37%

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

http://media.kansascity.com/livegraphics/2018/pdf/KS-GOP-Primary-Survey021518.pdf

Jim Barnett: 8%
Jeff Colyer: 23%
Wink Hartman: 5%
Mark Hutton: 3%
Kris Kobach: 21%
Ken Selzer: 3%
Undecided: 37%

Good poll for Colyer

[tmthforu94]

http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article200390604.html

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[tmthforu94]

http://media.kansascity.com/livegraphics/2018/pdf/KS-GOP-Primary-Survey021518.pdf

Jim Barnett: 8%
Jeff Colyer: 23%
Wink Hartman: 5%
Mark Hutton: 3%
Kris Kobach: 21%
Ken Selzer: 3%
Undecided: 37%

Good poll for Colyer

Agreed - he has a lot of room to grow. This strongly suggests that if Colyer has a good legislative session, he'll be the strong favorite in August.

[Holmes]

Kobach is a doosh but it's honestly idiotic to go for Brownback's #2 man and successor. Oklahoma Republicans at the moment don't seem stupid enough to be doing that with Lamb.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

http://media.kansascity.com/livegraphics/2018/pdf/KS-GOP-Primary-Survey021518.pdf

Jim Barnett: 8%
Jeff Colyer: 23%
Wink Hartman: 5%
Mark Hutton: 3%
Kris Kobach: 21%
Ken Selzer: 3%
Undecided: 37%

Good poll for Colyer

Agreed - he has a lot of room to grow. This strongly suggests that if Colyer has a good legislative session, he'll be the strong favorite in August.

I’m starting to think the GE may not be as close as expected if he’s the nominee and the legislative session goes well.  The SoS race could be close-ish, but I think it’s probably fool’s gold.  I think the big win for the Democrats in Kansas this cycle will be KS-2 (folks are really underestimating how likely this seat is to flip).  KS-4 will still be closer than it should be, but we had our chance there.

KS-3 could flip, but only if the wave sweeps out Yoder.  He’s a strong incumbent facing decidedly unimpressive opposition (I’m a bit baffled the Democrats couldn’t get a stronger recruit to run here tbh, they kinda dropped the ball), but it is also exactly the type of place where you’d expect Trump to be absolutely toxic to the GOP brand (please correct me if I’m wrong).  Honestly, the district is among the harder ones for me to predict, but right now I think Yoder will eek out a narrow victory (and possibly be a top target in 2020).

Since you’re one of our resident Kansans, I’d be curious to hear your thoughts about these races.

[tmthforu94]

There was a GOP debate last night - Colyer did not participate due to illness:

http://www.kansas.com/news/politics-government/article200782649.html

[morgieb]

Is Colyer on the Brownback or establishment wing of the Kansas Republican Party? Or in between?

[tmthforu94]

Is Colyer on the Brownback or establishment wing of the Kansas Republican Party? Or in between?

The lines are getting blurry between "Brownback vs. Anti-Brownback" and "conservative vs. moderate." Colyer is definitely a Brownback Republican, but at the same time, those who oppose Brownback are very likely to support Colyer over Kobach. At this point, there isn't a strong moderate or anti-Brownback candidate in the race. Rather than a referendum on Brownback, this election will likely be a referendum on Kobach.

[tmthforu94]

http://media.kansascity.com/livegraphics/2018/pdf/KS-GOP-Primary-Survey021518.pdf

Jim Barnett: 8%
Jeff Colyer: 23%
Wink Hartman: 5%
Mark Hutton: 3%
Kris Kobach: 21%
Ken Selzer: 3%
Undecided: 37%

Good poll for Colyer

Agreed - he has a lot of room to grow. This strongly suggests that if Colyer has a good legislative session, he'll be the strong favorite in August.

I’m starting to think the GE may not be as close as expected if he’s the nominee and the legislative session goes well.  The SoS race could be close-ish, but I think it’s probably fool’s gold.  I think the big win for the Democrats in Kansas this cycle will be KS-2 (folks are really underestimating how likely this seat is to flip).  KS-4 will still be closer than it should be, but we had our chance there.

KS-3 could flip, but only if the wave sweeps out Yoder.  He’s a strong incumbent facing decidedly unimpressive opposition (I’m a bit baffled the Democrats couldn’t get a stronger recruit to run here tbh, they kinda dropped the ball), but it is also exactly the type of place where you’d expect Trump to be absolutely toxic to the GOP brand (please correct me if I’m wrong).  Honestly, the district is among the harder ones for me to predict, but right now I think Yoder will eek out a narrow victory (and possibly be a top target in 2020).

Since you’re one of our resident Kansans, I’d be curious to hear your thoughts about these races.

I mostly agree with you, I think the 2nd isn't getting as much attention as it should. The 3rd is still most likely to flip, it voted for Crooked Hillary in 2016. Luckily for Yoder, the strongest candidate had to drop out over sexual harassment accusations. Niermann is probably the favorite in the primary but he'll face a tough challenge against Yoder, the national mood is going to have to get more favorable for Democrats.

The 2nd is almost the opposite - Democrats have a strong candidate but Republicans are scrambling a bit. I honestly have no clue who will win that primary, but whoever it is will have to quickly coalesce the party because at this point, I doubt the winner gets more than 40% of the vote share. However, the district is much more Republican than the 3rd so despite Republican flaws in recruiting, they should still be favored. I would say Fitzgerald is the favorite at this point and he's been controversial in the past.

[Pandaguineapig]

I'm honestly surprised Kobach jumped into this race rather than wait for Roberts likely retirement in 2020. I would figure his lust for attention and controversy would be better suited for the senate rather than as a small state governor. He also strikes me as a man with presidential aspirations/delusions and governor of Kansas isn't exactly going to be a good springboard for that.

[KingSweden]

I'm honestly surprised Kobach jumped into this race rather than wait for Roberts likely retirement in 2020. I would figure his lust for attention and controversy would be better suited for the senate rather than as a small state governor. He also strikes me as a man with presidential aspirations/delusions and governor of Kansas isn't exactly going to be a good springboard for that.

Yeah this surprised me too.

Any sense who the likely replacement for Roberts is? Marshall, maybe? Or Derek Schmidt?

[tmthforu94]

I'm honestly surprised Kobach jumped into this race rather than wait for Roberts likely retirement in 2020. I would figure his lust for attention and controversy would be better suited for the senate rather than as a small state governor. He also strikes me as a man with presidential aspirations/delusions and governor of Kansas isn't exactly going to be a good springboard for that.

Yeah this surprised me too.

Any sense who the likely replacement for Roberts is? Marshall, maybe? Or Derek Schmidt?

Agreed, Kobach thinks he is going to be president one day, running for senate would have made more sense.

As for Roberts' replacement, I have heard some rumblings that he is thinking of running again, though I suspect he ultimately will decide not to. Yoder and Marshall are both planning to run, though Yoder will have to survive reelection in 2018 first.

[tmthforu94]

Wink Hartman drops out, endorses Kobach.

http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article201363334.html

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[Jeppe]

Is Hartman a dog or an actual candidate.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

it's about taking our conservative platform and making it into policy to improve the lives of all Kansans.”

[/quote]


lol, republicans already did that and they lost miserably.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

it's about taking our conservative platform and making it into policy to improve the lives of all Kansans.”

lol, republicans already did that and they lost miserably.

[VPH]

It all depends on how Orman is branded. Does he maintain a "quasi-Democrat" aura from 2014 or does he look like a "JoCo moderate GOPer"?