Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My! (user search)
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  Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My! (search mode)
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Author Topic: Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!  (Read 79953 times)
TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« on: March 04, 2018, 10:23:54 AM »
Quote from: tmthforu94 on March 03, 2018, 09:47:25 PM
Quote from: VPH on February 25, 2018, 01:29:20 PM
It all depends on how Orman is branded. Does he maintain a "quasi-Democrat" aura from 2014 or does he look like a "JoCo moderate GOPer"?
Orman's best shot as third-party is if Ward and Kobach win their respective primaries, as both IMO are the extremes of their party. I think he's going to have a hard time cultivating a base of support if Democrats nominate Svaty. I also think the race will be over if Colyer wins the primary - enough moderate Republicans will hold their nose and vote for him over Orman/Democratic nominee.

This.
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2018, 08:59:35 AM »
« Edited: March 08, 2018, 01:35:38 PM by The Saint »
Greg Orman has chosen Kansas State Senator John Doll, who before becoming an independent in joining the ticket was a moderate Republican.

https://www.ormanforkansas.com/about_john_doll

He will now be the Kansas Legislature's only independent.

This seems to be a move to increase his bipartisan credentials in the eyes of some Republicans who might have viewed him as being a Democrat stand-in in 2014 (though those that think that probably won't vote for him anyway).
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #2 on: May 17, 2018, 07:05:07 PM »
Any recent news on Orman?

Also, has there been polling of any kind?
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #3 on: July 03, 2018, 08:47:33 AM »
Quote from: RubioRepublican on July 02, 2018, 10:22:17 PM
Real talk though, can we get a damn GE poll of Kansas?
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #4 on: July 17, 2018, 10:38:38 AM »
Quote from: smoltchanov on July 17, 2018, 10:35:21 AM
Quote from: tmthforu94 on July 17, 2018, 10:16:16 AM
I said at the beginning of the year that this race will largely be contingent on how Colyer performs as governor. His administration has been scandal-free to this point and he was able to get out of the budget/education battle relatively unscathed.

TV ads have started, Colyer is touting himself as the "pro-education, reasonable conservative" candidate, so he is definitely becoming the choice of moderate Republicans. The establishment of the party is also mostly backing him and he is securing good endorsements, recently from three of the most influential groups in the KSGOP (Farm Bureau, NRA, Kansans for Life (joint endorsement of Colyer and Kobach). Colyer's support isn't as solid as Kobach's and his supporters probably aren't as enthusiastic, but he has cast a wider net than Kobach and from what I've seen, is increasingly becoming favored to win.

At least in Johnson County, the Democratic race has seemed relatively quiet up to this point, I haven't seen a single ad for Kelly/Svaty/Brewer. I still maintain that this race is Likely R if Colyer is the nominee, Toss-up with Kobach. Colyer will win over enough moderate Republicans to win, whereas I think Kobach would lose almost all moderate GOP support to Orman and the Democratic nominee.

I thought that Jim Barnett, not Colyer, is a "moderate's choice". Am i wrong?

I don't know much about Barnett, but I assume Colyer is becoming the "moderate's choice" since the race will likely be between Colyer and Kobach. Colyer is probably making outreach attempts to moderates with that in mind.
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #5 on: July 24, 2018, 08:49:34 AM »
COME ON GREG ORMAN
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #6 on: August 04, 2018, 09:33:14 PM »
Wow this thread fell off the deep end fast.

As for Orman, he thinks he can provide voters with another option and do well, possibly even win (which is doubtful, but still). If he is really pushing forward in a way to be an effective, non-partisan Governor of Kansas, as he has shown to be doing, then good for him. I very much wish I could vote for him myself.

Edit: Scratch that last party: I'm legitimately kinda sad that I can't vote for him.
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2018, 11:10:30 AM »
Shame Sad
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2018, 05:42:02 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on August 06, 2018, 05:31:46 PM
Kansas needs a jungle primary (preferably top 4 with RCV runoff) to prevent jokes like Orman.

A jungle primary could actually strengthen his campaign as more potential voters wouldn't be hounded as much for being "spoilers."
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2018, 05:49:52 PM »
Quote from: ERM64man on August 06, 2018, 05:44:50 PM
A jungle primary would hurt Kobach. It would help Kelly, Colyer, Svaty, Orman, or Brewer.

That's what I was saying about Orman. You wrote Orman, but I think you originally meant to write Kobach.
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2018, 07:34:29 PM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on August 06, 2018, 07:15:07 PM
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on August 06, 2018, 01:00:03 PM
Why is he always doing this the last minute?

It's better that he does that, remember how short the memory and attention span of the average American is. Now cut that in half that and that's the memory and attention span of a Trump devotee.

Ignoring the unnecessary and stupid comment here, he’s endorsed people ahead of time, sometimes even months before. He endorsed Bill Schuette and Ron DeSantis right out of the gate. I don’t even think DeSantis was officially running then.
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2018, 06:38:16 PM »
Kinda late to be asking this, but what are some differences in the platforms of Svaty and Kelly?
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2018, 08:46:11 PM »
This is going to be the Virginia Senate primary all over again...
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2018, 08:53:33 PM »
« Edited: August 07, 2018, 09:02:48 PM by Delegate The Saint »
Yeah, looks like Kobach has it.

EDIT: Scratch that, the margin is narrowing a lot.
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2018, 09:13:33 PM »
Tmth, does Colyer still have a path to victory?
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2018, 09:35:36 PM »
Wow, this was more of a nail-biter than I was expecting.

And that's great for Colyer.

Also, if Colyer wins, can we expect a new investigation into voter fraud to be opened in the morning? Tongue
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2018, 10:08:58 PM »
Shoutout to Ken Selzer for winning a county.
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2018, 10:36:27 PM »
Looks like those 900+ votes were just added. Kobach in the lead by 0.3% with Johnson County still where it's been for awhile.
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2018, 10:42:56 PM »
Quote from: tmthforu94 on August 07, 2018, 10:40:07 PM
Quote from: Delegate The Saint on August 07, 2018, 10:36:27 PM
Looks like those 900+ votes were just added. Kobach in the lead by 0.3% with Johnson County still where it's been for awhile.
No, it isn't fixed yet. Unsure what % of JoCo voted early, that'll be key. Outside of JoCo, the map looks pretty even, maybe a slight edge to Colyer. Kobach is probably up by around 1500 votes right now.

Oop, never mind then Tongue
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #19 on: August 07, 2018, 10:53:22 PM »
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #20 on: August 08, 2018, 01:01:19 PM »
So when are the provisional ballots expected to come in?
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #21 on: August 08, 2018, 01:21:39 PM »
Quote from: tmthforu94 on August 08, 2018, 01:06:24 PM
Quote from: Delegate The Saint on August 08, 2018, 01:01:19 PM
So when are the provisional ballots expected to come in?
Deadline for them to come in is Friday, so results will probably be announced Friday evening or Monday.

Is Colyer still expected to get a bounce, and would it be enough?
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #22 on: August 08, 2018, 02:12:10 PM »
Quote from: Massguy on August 08, 2018, 02:06:45 PM
Quote from: President Johnson on August 08, 2018, 01:52:11 PM
I hope Colyer edges this out and he can somehow find the 200 votes he needs to win. We can't afford Kobach. Yes, Colyer is still a HP, but he's a much lesser evil than KKKobach.

Did Democrats underperform here or why are there so much less votes cast in the primary? Looks like they are doomed in November, or are there so many Republicans crossing over on the state level?
You do realize Kobach is easier to beat, right?

Some, like President Johnson, care about making sure all parties' nominees are the best they can be out of the available crop. Others, like many here, don't.
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #23 on: August 09, 2018, 01:53:22 PM »
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TheSaint250
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,072


Political Matrix
E: -2.84, S: 5.22

P P
« Reply #24 on: August 09, 2018, 02:24:26 PM »
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