Kansas Megathread: Kobach and Kelly and Orman, Oh My!

[smoltchanov]

I was at Washington Days (our Dem convention) yesterday and saw the shape of the race.

Each candidate had a table, minus the some-guys. They were giving out stickers/buttons and stuff, and Brewer was the only one selling his items. Svaty's table had the most people stopping by (maybe the delicious homemade kolaches helped out...) and there were tons of people walking around with Svaty buttons on. His supporters showed up in force, including me. Ward had the second most supporters there for sure.

During the debate, Svaty clearly won, and fans of other candidates were telling me this. His energy and rhetoric stood out, and he was very specific, especially on the healthcare question. Ward did decent, talked about his record and threw some progressive red meat. Laura Kelly just seemed absent. She was sleepy, stumbling, and didn't seem at all confident. Brewer was okay but fumbled a few questions and didn't say much. In terms of the minor candidates, Jack Bergeson (the kid) was the only one to bring up the sales tax on food and the first to talk about marijuana reform. Robert Klingberg was, well, Robert Klingberg-just said some random things about being an average guy. Arden Andersen, however, was wacko. Dude brought up autism/"growing numbers of developmental disorders" in every speech and appeared on the verge of an antivax rant. What a character...

Overall, I think Washington Days shows that the Democratic frontrunners are Svaty, Kelly, and Ward to a lesser extent. Brewer is rapidly falling behind and it wouldn't shock me if he dropped out. Kelly doesn't seem like she's in the race (Sebelius was working the room before dinner while Kelly sat at her table, even as Ward, Brewer, and Svaty worked the room), but she's got the Sebelius machine. Svaty has energy and a dynamic campaign team, but not necessarily the party establishment. Ward has a lot of progressive Dem activists, but not the money he needs. For that matter, I heard that labor won't be big on Ward because of how he took down Tom Burroughs, who has a lot of standing among Wyandotte County unions, as minority leader a few years back.

Will definitely be an interesting race moving forward!

Tremendous news....I've been saying for months is Svaty's race to win. Not that clown Orman

And how precisely you intend to win with Orman in the race?. He is perfectly able to get at least 15-20% of vote, and mostly - from Democrats (or - very moderate Republicans, whom Democrats badly need to win in this generally Republican state). Without Orman, Svaty, for example, could build that coalition of Democratic and moderate Republican voters, which was generally successfull in 2016 legislative elections. But, with him - i think Colyer (or even Kobach) is favored, simply because there is still a very considerable number of very conservative Republicans to prevail over split opposition.

[smoltchanov]

^ Orman seems to be too ambitious to agree to play second fiddle.

[smoltchanov]

I think Orman can be pushed out of the race if Democrats show that they have a strong candidate.

I - don't. He will be holding a grdge against Democrats, who wouldn't support his candidacy this time, and will make everything possible to ruin Democrat's chances.

[smoltchanov]

Greg Orman has chosen Kansas State Representative John Doll, who before becoming an independent in joining the ticket was a moderate Republican.

https://www.ormanforkansas.com/about_john_doll

He will now be the Kansas Legislature's only independent.

This seems to be a move to increase his bipartisan credentials in the eyes of some Republicans who might have viewed him as being a Democrat stand-in in 2014 (though those that think that probably won't vote for him anyway).

Funny enough, Doll used to be a Democrat and ran for the big first in 2006.

Good grief. Two opportunistic peas in a pod.

You can't win in far western Kansas as a Democrat, usually. And Doll is from Western Kansas. So - he made a right decision..

[smoltchanov]

I recognize that the last Democratic Governor of Kansas had two former Republicans in the LG's office, but Democrats need to seriously realize that voting for Orman is a mistake. If they hold ranks and he mostly draws from Republicans, Svaty has an even better shot.

Even in that case - Orman will draw moderate Independents and moderate Republicans, whom Democrats absolutely need to get, to have a chance for governorship. Democrats can't win Kansas on Democratic votes alone....

[smoltchanov]

Greg Orman has chosen Kansas State Representative John Doll, who before becoming an independent in joining the ticket was a moderate Republican.

https://www.ormanforkansas.com/about_john_doll

He will now be the Kansas Legislature's only independent.

This seems to be a move to increase his bipartisan credentials in the eyes of some Republicans who might have viewed him as being a Democrat stand-in in 2014 (though those that think that probably won't vote for him anyway).

Funny enough, Doll used to be a Democrat and ran for the big first in 2006.

Good grief. Two opportunistic peas in a pod.

You can't win in far western Kansas as a Democrat, usually. And Doll is from Western Kansas. So - he made a right decision..

I don't necessarily agree. Dennis McKinney used to pull great numbers in West-Central Kansas. Eber Phelps, a longtime Representative from Hays and former Hays mayor (iirc), won back his seat over moderate Sue Boldra in 2016. Trump got around 75% here, although it's an ancestrally Democratic area way back. Heck, Daniel Love almost won the Dodge City House seat after dropping out the day after the filing deadline and not having his name taken off the ballot. Without campaigning, he was one mailer or two away from winning a deep red district. Granted, Love is a longtime judge there, but it goes to show that in Kansas, it's hard to write things off.

In 2006, despite getting creamed, John Doll got around 40% in Finney County. My guess is that he won Garden City proper and could probably win the corresponding state House seat as a Democrat.

Thanks for info. Of course - you are local, and i genralized somewhat, but let's consider a map of Kansas state House districts. How many distiricts west of Wichita are now held by Democrats? IIRC - exactly one, by Eber Phelps you mentioned. And in state Senate? Zero. So, i think, what i said is rather close to the truth...

[smoltchanov]

Greg Orman has chosen Kansas State Representative John Doll, who before becoming an independent in joining the ticket was a moderate Republican.

https://www.ormanforkansas.com/about_john_doll

He will now be the Kansas Legislature's only independent.

This seems to be a move to increase his bipartisan credentials in the eyes of some Republicans who might have viewed him as being a Democrat stand-in in 2014 (though those that think that probably won't vote for him anyway).

I see it somewhat differently. The emergence of substantial number of serious Independent candidates is, IMHO, a proof of failure of present day American political system, where both major parties are moving to radical fringes, and 35-40% of electorate, calling itself a "moderates", are, essentially, not welcome in both... People like Orman or Doll don't fit really well in both Kansas parties, for example, though Kansas is still one of the "better" states in this sense, with both moderate Republicans and "not very liberal Democrats" still existing. Look at Michigan, Wisconsin,and so on - almost complete adherence to "dogma" by almost all legislators..

[smoltchanov]

Greg Orman has chosen Kansas State Representative John Doll, who before becoming an independent in joining the ticket was a moderate Republican.

https://www.ormanforkansas.com/about_john_doll

He will now be the Kansas Legislature's only independent.

This seems to be a move to increase his bipartisan credentials in the eyes of some Republicans who might have viewed him as being a Democrat stand-in in 2014 (though those that think that probably won't vote for him anyway).

Funny enough, Doll used to be a Democrat and ran for the big first in 2006.

Good grief. Two opportunistic peas in a pod.

You can't win in far western Kansas as a Democrat, usually. And Doll is from Western Kansas. So - he made a right decision..

I don't necessarily agree. Dennis McKinney used to pull great numbers in West-Central Kansas. Eber Phelps, a longtime Representative from Hays and former Hays mayor (iirc), won back his seat over moderate Sue Boldra in 2016. Trump got around 75% here, although it's an ancestrally Democratic area way back. Heck, Daniel Love almost won the Dodge City House seat after dropping out the day after the filing deadline and not having his name taken off the ballot. Without campaigning, he was one mailer or two away from winning a deep red district. Granted, Love is a longtime judge there, but it goes to show that in Kansas, it's hard to write things off.

In 2006, despite getting creamed, John Doll got around 40% in Finney County. My guess is that he won Garden City proper and could probably win the corresponding state House seat as a Democrat.

Thanks for info. Of course - you are local, and i genralized somewhat, but let's consider a map of Kansas state House districts. How many distiricts west of Wichita are now held by Democrats? IIRC - exactly one, by Eber Phelps you mentioned. And in state Senate? Zero. So, i think, what i said is rather close to the truth...

Jason Probst has the Hutchinson-based HD 102, and Jolene Roitman hit 40% in HD 116. What I'm saying is not that it's easy to win out West, but that Democrats too often take a defeatist attitude. Orman's reasoning in picking Doll is probably that he wants to undercut Svaty. I don't think it'll work. If anything, picking Doll, who supports teachers carrying guns, will not play well with Orman's own base. This strange attempt at a balancing act, combined with all the mud that will be thrown at Orman from both sides, will cripple his campaign.

We will see. Both Kobach and Colyer would be absolutely unacceptable to me, and i don't see any serious moderate Republican running. So i need to cheer either for Orman or for Democratic candidate, but i really fear that their bases (unlike that of conservatives) overlap too much.

[smoltchanov]

Another candidate will be running on the Republican side.

4 month before primary. Is it not too late to begin from scratch?

[smoltchanov]

One question to Kansas locals about state legislative primaries in light of never ending war between Republican conservatives and Republican moderates: after quick glance  on candidate list i noticed, that relatively "experienced" moderates (sometimes - "almost liberals"), especially in suburban districts (Clayton, Gallagher, Rooker and some other) are mostly unopposed in their primaries, while "new" ones (Good, Judd-Jenkins and other) almost invariably have intraparty opposition. An attempt by conservatives to overturn 2016 results (which went mostly in moderate's favor, and led to many anti-Brownback votes in legislature), while these newcomers didn't get too entrenched? Which are their chances for success now (when Brownback is no longer in office)?

[smoltchanov]

2 tmthforu94. First of all - thanks for info about legslative candidates! But there is another question: how did it happen, that moderate wing of Republican party almost ignores statewide and federal elections this year? No serious candidates for governor, for example, where choice is, essentially, between rather bad conservative (Colyer) and atrocious conservative (Kobach), no serious moderate candidate in relatively moderate (by Kansas standards) KS-02, no serious moderate opponent to conservative Yoder in rather moderate KS-03, and so on. The only moderate i know running statewide is state Senator Vicky Schmidt (for Insurance commissioner). Why so???

[smoltchanov]

^ Agree about Schmidt. But other seem to be a conservatives to me (few - with some (limited) appeal to moderates).

[smoltchanov]

Colyer wins key straw poll in Johnson County, Kobach accuses Colyer of voter fraud (no joke) in it: https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article214228689.html

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Johnson county, IIRC, was anti-Brownback hotbed in 2016 elections. So, it's not surprising, that it prefers slightly more sane candidate..

[smoltchanov]

Colyer wins key straw poll in Johnson County, Kobach accuses Colyer of voter fraud (no joke) in it: https://www.kansascity.com/opinion/editorials/article214228689.html

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Johnson county, IIRC, was anti-Brownback hotbed in 2016 elections. So, it's not surprising, that it prefers slightly more sane candidate..

Yes it was. That being said, Olathe/Gardner is still a very conservative part of the county and the Olathe GOP Picnic is known to be a hotbed (stealing your word ) for very conservative political activists. Kobach easily won this straw poll 1 year ago, so it was a bit of an upset to see Colyer win.

Thanks! Very interesting info! And, one question. I noticed by election results that Olathe area is much more conservative, then some other parts of Johnson county. Why?

[smoltchanov]

I said at the beginning of the year that this race will largely be contingent on how Colyer performs as governor. His administration has been scandal-free to this point and he was able to get out of the budget/education battle relatively unscathed.

TV ads have started, Colyer is touting himself as the "pro-education, reasonable conservative" candidate, so he is definitely becoming the choice of moderate Republicans. The establishment of the party is also mostly backing him and he is securing good endorsements, recently from three of the most influential groups in the KSGOP (Farm Bureau, NRA, Kansans for Life (joint endorsement of Colyer and Kobach). Colyer's support isn't as solid as Kobach's and his supporters probably aren't as enthusiastic, but he has cast a wider net than Kobach and from what I've seen, is increasingly becoming favored to win.

At least in Johnson County, the Democratic race has seemed relatively quiet up to this point, I haven't seen a single ad for Kelly/Svaty/Brewer. I still maintain that this race is Likely R if Colyer is the nominee, Toss-up with Kobach. Colyer will win over enough moderate Republicans to win, whereas I think Kobach would lose almost all moderate GOP support to Orman and the Democratic nominee.

I thought that Jim Barnett, not Colyer, is a "moderate's choice". Am i wrong?

[smoltchanov]

^ Thanks!

[smoltchanov]

Moderate to liberal Johnson County Republican Senator Barbara Bollier endorsed Democrats Tom Niermann (KS-03) and Laura Kelly (Gov) this week, earning her a sharp rebuke from Senator President Susan Wagle and a demotion from her committee leadership position.

Now, unsurprisingly, Bollier is considering switching parties. Her district gave Hillary Clinton 62% of the vote and is one of Kansas' most affluent ones. She isn't up for re-election until 2020. Bollier is one of the biggest advocates in the Senate for Medicaid expansion, gun control, and public education. She is also pro-choice and pro-LGBT and would fit in well with the Senate Democratic Caucus.

http://www.cjonline.com/news/20180718/republican-state-sen-barbara-bollier-considers-leaving-party-faces-retribution-for-supporting-democrats

Not surprizing. But, IIRV, there are at least 5-7 other moderate Republican state senators with comparable voting record, but from more Trumpish districts (Skubal, Sykes, and so on). It's interesting to observe their reaction and behavoir. Doll already became Indie, for example... Taylor somehow manages to be a moderate in 82% Trump district. We shall see...

[smoltchanov]

Guys (and gals) - i repeat here my question from another thread: what's so "criminal" in politician supporting candidate of other party for office? In 1972 literally thousands Democratic officeholders refused to support George McGovern for President, and majority of them happily supported Nixon. No repressions followed. Many Southern Democrats supported Bush in 2000 and 2004. Again - essentially the same. And so on. If you call themselves "parties of big tent" - you must behave normally when someone from your "tent" demonstrates maverick inclinations. Otherwise - where is this "tent"? You have 2 boring armies of "loyal soldiers", and nothing more.... Normal "Bolshevick's parties" we know so well in Russia...

[smoltchanov]

The times have changed, party's are more partisan. I think this race is more personal - Kevin Yoder is in the same state as Bollier, the same district. He has a close working relationship with many in the legislature as he used to be in there, so people take it more personally when she goes against the party and backs his opponent.

Bollier has been extremely critical of GOP officials for years and votes to the left of even some Democrats in the Senate. It continues to baffle me why she is still a Republican, hopefully after this stunt she decides to finally be honest with the voters and become a Democrat. I'm supportive of moderate politicians (Sykes, Cox, Finch, etc.) and conservative politicians - she is neither.

Thanks for explanation! Quite possible. But i remember even more liberal Republican state Senators (like David Wysong, who, it seems to me, was elected from the same district quite recently) - and their "apostasies" were still tolerated. Clayton, Rooker, Gallagher (in state House) - all vote approximately the same way Bollier does. And they are unopposed this year in primary So, i think an element of "personal vendetta" still exist in this case. Though in Bollier's case it would, probably, be even easier for her to get reelected as Democrat (in 61.5% Clinton district). Her former seat in state House went Democratic in 2016 despite all attempts by Republicans to save it (even running moderate candidate themselves).

[smoltchanov]

IIRC - Kelly represents 57% Trump district, and, at the same time, has strongly liberal reputation. The first factor (an ability to win such district) is a plus, the second - probably, a minus, especially against "slightly more sane" Colyer.  May be - moderate liberal would be better in such case?

[smoltchanov]

On the bright side, this is probably the peak time for Orman to be polling. On the downside, Svaty doesn’t look likely to get the nomination

He should run for Senate in 2020 when Pat Roberts likely retires if he loses the primary.

Nah, even in an open seat race that’d just be a suicide run. The only realistic way I could see a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kansas is if a popular Democratic Governor was able to win on personal popularity. Think back to those hypothetical polls showing Kathleen Sebelius up by double digits for the open senate race in 2010 before she was tapped for HHS.

Svaty is young enough to serve as Governor, and if he were to succeed there, make a Senate run. Kelly is way too old.

I'm not a big fan of Laura Kelly but I disagree that she's "too old".

IIRC - Kelly represents 57% Trump district, and, at the same time, has strongly liberal reputation. The first factor (an ability to win such district) is a plus, the second - probably, a minus, especially against "slightly more sane" Colyer.  May be - moderate liberal would be better in such case?

Laura Kelly's really not that liberal. She had an NRA A+ rating, voted to ban the governor from expanding Medicaid, and voted for Kobach's voter ID. Arguably, the most liberal candidate (aside from the teenager) in the race right now is Josh Svaty.

And she’s the front runner for the Democrats??? How?

Kansas is NOT especially liberal state. That's true for Democrats too to some extent..

2 VPH Thanks! I based my estimate on ACU and Kansas Policy Institute ratings, but every organization's rating is inherently subjective)))))

[smoltchanov]

On the bright side, this is probably the peak time for Orman to be polling. On the downside, Svaty doesn’t look likely to get the nomination

He should run for Senate in 2020 when Pat Roberts likely retires if he loses the primary.

Nah, even in an open seat race that’d just be a suicide run. The only realistic way I could see a Democrat winning a Senate seat in Kansas is if a popular Democratic Governor was able to win on personal popularity. Think back to those hypothetical polls showing Kathleen Sebelius up by double digits for the open senate race in 2010 before she was tapped for HHS.

Svaty is young enough to serve as Governor, and if he were to succeed there, make a Senate run. Kelly is way too old.

I'm not a big fan of Laura Kelly but I disagree that she's "too old".

IIRC - Kelly represents 57% Trump district, and, at the same time, has strongly liberal reputation. The first factor (an ability to win such district) is a plus, the second - probably, a minus, especially against "slightly more sane" Colyer.  May be - moderate liberal would be better in such case?

Laura Kelly's really not that liberal. She had an NRA A+ rating, voted to ban the governor from expanding Medicaid, and voted for Kobach's voter ID. Arguably, the most liberal candidate (aside from the teenager) in the race right now is Josh Svaty.

And she’s the front runner for the Democrats??? How?

Kansas is NOT especially liberal state. That's true for Democrats too to some extent..

2 VPH Thanks!

That doesn't make it okay to support Voter ID's or be against expanding medicaid.

That's your opinion. Probably - state Senator Kelly thinks differently, and she is entitled to HER opinion.

[smoltchanov]

KS-03 updates!
Over the last week since his rally with Bernie and AOC, Brent Welder raised $110,000. IN A WEEK.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399107-dem-candidate-raises-110k-in-week-after-ocasio-cortez-sanders-visit

State Rep. Cindy Holscher, a rising star in the Kansas Democratic Party, endorsed Sharice Davids!
https://www.facebook.com/ShariceforCongress/photos/a.1989976834583558.1073741829.1977738355807406/2086468281601079/?type=3

This race is going to go down to the wire. Very exciting!

Welder may win primary, but, most likely, will be disastrous GE candidate. This district is very dissimilar to AOC district....

[smoltchanov]

KS-03 updates!
Over the last week since his rally with Bernie and AOC, Brent Welder raised $110,000. IN A WEEK.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399107-dem-candidate-raises-110k-in-week-after-ocasio-cortez-sanders-visit

State Rep. Cindy Holscher, a rising star in the Kansas Democratic Party, endorsed Sharice Davids!
https://www.facebook.com/ShariceforCongress/photos/a.1989976834583558.1073741829.1977738355807406/2086468281601079/?type=3

This race is going to go down to the wire. Very exciting!

Welder may win primary, but, most likely, will be disastrous GE candidate. This district is very dissimilar to AOC district....

Welder doesn't seem that different from Kara Eastman. She isn't doomed and the two districts are rather similar (both urban midwestern seats).

Yoder is more experienced then Bacon. And, generally, i am extremely skeptical about "bold progreesive's" chances in rather rich suburban districts. I may be wrong, but i don't see Eastman victory either.

[smoltchanov]

KS-03 updates!
Over the last week since his rally with Bernie and AOC, Brent Welder raised $110,000. IN A WEEK.
http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399107-dem-candidate-raises-110k-in-week-after-ocasio-cortez-sanders-visit

State Rep. Cindy Holscher, a rising star in the Kansas Democratic Party, endorsed Sharice Davids!
https://www.facebook.com/ShariceforCongress/photos/a.1989976834583558.1073741829.1977738355807406/2086468281601079/?type=3

This race is going to go down to the wire. Very exciting!

Welder may win primary, but, most likely, will be disastrous GE candidate. This district is very dissimilar to AOC district....

Welder doesn't seem that different from Kara Eastman. She isn't doomed and the two districts are rather similar (both urban midwestern seats).

Yoder is more experienced then Bacon. And, generally, i am extremely skeptical about "bold progreesive's" chances in rather rich suburban districts. I may be wrong, but i don't see Eastman victory either.

I do agree that Welder would lose, but that would be because he's a carpetbagger, not his ideology. Most voters aren't consistently ideological at all.

As for Eastman, she will probably win. She's a very skilled campaigner (as shown by her primary win) and isn't as liberal as Atlas thinks. She's a standard Democrat, quite honestly.

Well, that changes situation. Standard Democrat can win that district (at least - in good year). Ultraliberal - unlikely.