Polish Politics and Elections

[Vosem]

So as I understand it, the bad guys lost?

Per exit polls, which are normally pretty good in Poland, yes but narrowly. However the actual counting is going extremely slowly.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

That results from Kraków are only hospitals and retirement houses so aren't the best indicators.

So this would be overly PiS leaning, since it’s retirement homes?

[M0096]

Yes, retirement houses and social care homes are the most pro-PiS precincts in the biggest cities.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Florida 2000 called, it said that vote counting is going slowly.

[Storr]

We've finally reached 5% of precincts reporting:

Turnout from reporting precincts: 72.24%

Law and Justice: 39.81% 268,556
Civic Coalition:    27.55% 185,848
Third Way:          12.97%  87,504
New Left:            8.53%    57,526
Confederation:    7.17%    48,352

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Chances PiS still make it?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Chances PiS still make it?

Quite possible, but we don't have an awful lot to go by.

[Storr]

10.3% of precincts reporting:

Turnout from reporting precincts: 72.11%

Law and Justice: 40.17%  612,469
Civic Coalition:    26.55%  404,874
Third Way:          13.66%  208,304
New Left:            8.34%   127,229
Confederation:    7.35%    112,037

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

Tusk has declared victory.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

10.3% of precincts reporting:

Turnout from reporting precincts: 72.11%

Law and Justice: 40.17%  612,469
Civic Coalition:    26.55%  404,874
Third Way:          13.66%  208,304
New Left:            8.34%   127,229
Confederation:    7.35%    112,037

Mostly results from villages, I'm assuming?

[Storr]

10.3% of precincts reporting:

Turnout from reporting precincts: 72.11%

Law and Justice: 40.17%  612,469
Civic Coalition:    26.55%  404,874
Third Way:          13.66%  208,304
New Left:            8.34%   127,229
Confederation:    7.35%    112,037

Mostly results from villages, I'm assuming?

It's a bit hard to tell looking at just the National Election Commission's website. It appears that results aren't mostly from any one particular type of area (villages, cities, etc.).

The electoral district with the current highest percentage of reporting precincts is Częstochowa with 46.79%. (75% of precincts in the city itself are reporting.) In 2019, PiS beat PO by 21.65% here:

Law and Justice: 35.10%
Civic Coalition:    30.43%
Third Way:          13.82%
New Left:            10.25%
Confederation:    6.60%    

[Umengus]

29% in

PIS 40
CC 26,4
TW 14,1
NL 8
C 7,3

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Have the Singapore votes come in ?

[Logical]

Have the Singapore votes come in ?

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/gm/702
KO 54.98%
Lewica 17.61%
TD 14.62%
PIS 6.31%
KON 5.48%

[Oliver]

Does the Left Alliance NL need 5% for parties or 8% for alliances to gain seats within the parliament?

29% in

PIS 40
CC 26,4
TW 14,1
NL 8
C 7,3

[Logical]

Does the Left Alliance NL need 5% for parties or 8% for alliances to gain seats within the parliament?

29% in

PIS 40
CC 26,4
TW 14,1
NL 8
C 7,3

No. Only KO and TD ran as coalitions.

[DavidB.]

Looks different than the exit. Is this because rural/Eastern areas have already been counted more than Western/urban areas?

[Logical]

Looks different than the exit. Is this because rural/Eastern areas have already been counted more than Western/urban areas?

Heavy rural bias. Most medium sized cities are only about ~20% counted.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

So far nearly all counted votes are from abroad and basically all of them from the United States and Canada,  so they skew heavily towards PiS.

What´s the main reason Poles in Northern America are more conservative?? Is it because they emigrated much earlier than the Poles in Europe and therefore their only contact to their homeland is TVP Polonia?? So they´re getting a biased picture of the situation??

I am speaking strictly from an anecdotal perspective, but my understanding from growing up in the Chicago region is that most Polish citizens in the U.S. who actually bother to vote and follow elections in the Old Country tend to skew heavily older, first generation immigrants, and can speak Polish.

So I assume it is more the age factor here.

[Logical]

I will say that it looks like KWN may be underestimated in the exit poll. They're on track to snatch a couple seats in constituencies they did not win in 2019.

[tepoe]

I will say that it looks like KWN may be underestimated in the exit poll. They're on track to snatch a couple seats in constituencies they did not win in 2019.

Can you name some of those seats? I just checked the partial results of a dozen constituencies, and I have missed the signs of potential Konfederacja gains.

[Logical]

We have the first city to finish counting and it's Częstochowa.

KO 35.8% (+7.4)
PIS 30.9% (-6.4)
Lewica 12.3% (-8.7)
TD/PSL 11.6% (+7.2)
KWN 5.9% (-0.1)

Changes from 2019

[Logical]

I will say that it looks like KWN may be underestimated in the exit poll. They're on track to snatch a couple seats in constituencies they did not win in 2019.

Can you name some of those seats? I just checked the partial results of a dozen constituencies, and I have missed the signs of potential Konfederacja gains.

1 - Legnica
5 - Toruń
7 - Chełm
11 - Sieradz
18 - Siedlice
24 - Białystok
36 - Kalisz

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The difference in the diaspora vote between other European countries (inc. GB o/c) and Canada especially is hilarious.

[Velasco]

The count is hopelessly slow. Just hoping the results will confirm the victory of the democratic forces anticipated by the big exit poll. It'd be a little ray of hope in this hour of darkness.