Polish Politics and Elections

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Trzaskowski would have won 373-187. Even without Mazowieckie Trzaskowski would have won 297-263.

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Senate:
Gabriela Stanecka-Morawska - deputy marshall of Senate, represents swing district (75) in Upper Silesia (cities Mysłowice, Tychy and Bieruń-Lędziny County)

Sejm:
Robert Kwiatkowski - former president of TVP (polish state television), member of National Media Counsil, represents eastern part of Kujavia-Pomerania.
Joanna Senyszyn - former MEP, controversial, anti-clerical member of Sejm, represents Gdynia and western part of Pomerania.
Andrzej Rozenek - former ally of Janusz Palikot, member of Sejm who represents Warsaw II district (counties surrounding Warsaw).

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Marshall (Governor) of Upper Silesia and 4 legislators left PiS and created new group, which caucused with opposition. It's 2nd flip of that voivodeship during this term and opposition controls now majority of voivodeship governments.

Upper Silesia is bellwether of polish politics so it's bad sign for PiS a year before parliamentary election.

I think next flip will be Lower Silesia, where legislature is evenly divided.

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PO-Konfederacja alliance is almost impossible. Konfederacja is too far-right on social issues and PO abandoned economic paleo-liberalism and became more moderate on economic issues (than 15 years ago).
If PiS didn't have majority, they would try to divide Konfederacja and create coalition with more nationalist wing of that party. Libertarians led by Korwin and Mentzen aren't reliable allies for PiS.

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PO-PSL-PL2050 with confidence and supply from Konfederacja will be suicide for "democratic opposition". This government wouldn't pass anything important and would be force to adapt unpopular right-wing economic decisions. If that happend, I would expect snap election in 2 years and subsequent PiS government later.
If Konfederacja decided to cooperate with PO, I expect nonpartisan, temporary government until presidential election in 2025.

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Kolodziejczak was promised position of Minister or Viceminister (in case minister is member of PSL) of Agriculture in KO-led government.

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Third Way is alliance but Confederation and Left are parties.

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The election advisor "Latarnik Wyborczy" has started today. Here is link to that questionnaire latarnikwyborczy.pl/ankieta.

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My Senate prediction:
Safe Senate Pact (KO, PSL, PL2050, Left): 36 seats
Likely Senate Pact: 8 seats
Lean Senate Pact: 11 seats
Toss-up: 5 seats
Lean PiS: 5 seats
Likely PiS: 6 seats
Safe PiS: 29 seats

Districts:
Safe Senate Pact: 4 (Wałbrzych), 7 (Wrocław I), 8 (Wrocław II), 9 (Bydgoszcz), 11 (Toruń), 20 (Zielona Góra), 21 (Gorzów Wielkopolski), 22 (Nowa Sól), 23 (Łódź I), 24 (Łódź II), 32 (Kraków I), 33 (Kraków II), 41 (Pruszków), 42 (Warszawa I), 43 (Warszawa II), 44 (Warszawa III), 45 (Warszawa IV), 52 (Opole), 62 (Słupsk), 64 (Gdynia), 65 (Gdańsk), 66 (Tczew), 67 (Malbork), 70 (Gliwice), 71 (Zabrze), 77 (Sosnowiec), 80 (Katowice), 84 (Elbląg), 88 (Piła), 89 (Szamotuły), 90 (Swarzędz), 91 (Poznań), 94 (Leszno), 97 (Szczecin), 98 (Stargard), 99 (Kołobrzeg)
Likely Senate Pact: 6 (Oleśnica), 10 (Inowrocław), 53 (Kędzierzyn-Koźle), 69 (Częstochowa), 74 (Ruda Śląska) (flip), 76 (Dąbrowa Górnicza), 78 (Bielsko-Biała), 100 (Koszalin)
Lean Senate Pact: 2 (Jelenia Góra) (flip), 5 (Dzierżoniów) (flip), 12 (Grudziądz), 16 (Lublin), 40 (Legionowo), 75 (Tychy), 85 (Ostróda) (flip), 87 (Ełk) (flip), 92 (Gniezno), 95 (Ostrów Wielkopolski), 96 (Kalisz)
Toss-up: 1 (Bolesławiec), 51 (Nysa), 63 (Chojnice), 72 (Jastrzębie-Zdrój), 86 (Olsztyn)
Lean PiS: 3 (Legnica), 13 (Włocławek), 26 (Zgierz), 38 (Płock), 73 (Rybnik)
Likely PiS: 18 (Chełm), 39 (Ciechanów), 60 (Białystok), 68 (Myszków), 79 (Cieszyn), 93 (Konin)
Safe PiS: 14 (Puławy), 15 (Kraśnik), 17 (Biała Podlaska), 19 (Zamość), 25 (Kutno), 27 (Zduńska Wola), 28 (Piotrków Trybunalski), 29 (Tomaszów Mazowiecki), 30 (Oświęcim), 31 (Olkusz), 34 (Bochnia), 35 (Tarnów), 36 (Nowy Targ), 37 (Nowy Sącz), 46 (Ostrołęka), 47 (Mińsk Mazowiecki), 48 (Siedlce), 49 (Kozienice), 50 (Radom), 54 (Stalowa Wola), 55 (Mielec), 56 (Rzeszów), 57 (Krosno), 58 (Przemyśl), 59 (Suwałki), 61 (Bielsk Podlaski), 81 (Busko-Zdrój), 82 (Ostrowiec Świętokrzyski), 83 (Kielce)

Senate will be very likely hold by opposition. Senate Pact is going to expand their majority by a few seats.

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Polling is fairly stable right now at something like 37% PiS+, 30% PO+, 10% Lewica, 10% Third Way, and 10% Confederation.

I have a very basic knowledge of Polish politics, so what do those numbers mean as an outcome? Is that a narrow lead for a potential opposition coalition?

"Democratic Opposition" (KO, Third Way and Left) and PiS+Konfederacja are tied in number of seats in Sejm in majority of polls. "Democratic Opposition" parties excluded coalition with PiS. Left also can't be in coalition with Konfederacja. Coalition between KO or Third Way with Konfederacja is also very unlikely. I also can't image consensus between PiS and Konfederacja in economic issues.

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1 (Bolesławiec): I don't think Kamil Barczyk can replicate result of five-term incumbent mayor of the biggest city in the district (Piotr Roman). Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy are coalition member in Voidodeship Sejmik with PiS and I predict much stronger tactical voting this time. I agree that Witkowski is carpetbagger and very weak candidate, but this is Komorowski (2015), Trzaskowski (2019) district. I think Ślusarz and Witkowski are practically tied.

13 (Włocławek): Zbonikowski (who placed 3rd) was discredited PiS member, who was deselected by Kaczyński from PiS Sejm list, so he decided to ran for Senate as Independent. I doubt that no-name leftist could flip that district, but this race will end in low single digits. Wenderlich was a least one of best recognizable politicans in SLD, who was deputy Marshall of Sejm.

16 (Lublin): This seat is trending very fast to opposition, so I think that even carpetbagger should narrowly win there.

I agree that 18 and 39 are weird, because PiS defectors are efficiently opposition candidates. Under normal circumstances PiS should win there easily but both Grzywaczewska and Bieńkowski are no-namers + third candidates are right-wingers.

72 (Jastrzębie-Zdrój) is also interesting, because PiS deselected incumbent Ewa Gawęda, who decided to run as Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy. After Gawęda registered at the last minute, they forced their nominee to withdraw. I think this drama could make this PiS-leaning, blue collar district, as the most competitive race in Senate election.

83 (Kielce) won't be competitive. Suchańska is too strong and will very easily split opposition vote.

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There was also a debate last night where both Morawiecki and Tusk apparently (I didn't watch) did terribly and both Hołownia and Lewica representative Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus put in respectable performances, but if that was even going to matter in the first place it might be just a smidgen overshadowed now.

I watched this debate-like event and I'm disguested. The hosts were actually PiS functionary and every question had suggestion that Morawiecki's government was much better that Tusk's one.
I think Szymon Hołownia won that farce. Scheuring-Wielus and Bosak had also good performances. Maj from Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy was almost invisible. Morawiecki was very agressive and had the weakest performance. Tusk had troubles in first question, but later successively attacked Morawiecki and PiS.
Here is article about this show: https://www.politico.eu/article/polish-election-debate-descends-into-farce/.

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Leaders of KO, Left and Third Way declared joint government so every party from centre-left opposition would be part of government.
Minority governments in Poland were always results of political crises. There were no parliamentary election in modern (since 1993) Poland after which there weren't formed majority government.

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While the 5th poll has PiS beating KO by 13%, down from 18% in their last poll (?!).

State-own pollster CBOS has always thrown 25-30% of opposition votes to undecided.

Pollsters have usually underestimated PSL vote-share, sometimes by up to 5%. I think Third Way could end with 13-15% at the election day.

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New Left is direct successor of communist Polish United Workers' Party so it's not surprising that they refuse to paint Polish People's Republic only in black color. Unlike Czech or East German postcommunist  parties, Aliance of Democratic Left had majority of reformist wing of former communist party. In Czechia and Germany reformists left former communist party and recreated old socialdemocratic one. Almost every hard-core communist was defeated in 1989 election. That election was only partially free, because communist and their satelites had reserved almost 2/3 of seats in Sejm, but voters could choose which communist candidate they prefere. The election results caused takeover of the party by reformist wing and hard-core communist became irrelevant.

New Left has pretty obvious postcommunist heritage, but new generation is focus more on socialdemocratic views than fighting for bright history of communist era. The Left has some nostalgic, old voters, but majority of their electorate are young people, not interested of disputes from 30 years ago.

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That's the only precinct where people are still voting. I remember that during 2020 presidential election people also voted until about 2 AM in Split, Croatia.

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That results from Kraków are only hospitals and retirement houses so aren't the best indicators.

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Yes, retirement houses and social care homes are the most pro-PiS precincts in the biggest cities.

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The partial results suggest that PiS was slightly overestimated and Third Way underestimated in ExitPoll. The error will be similar to 2019 parliamentary election.

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OGB just called Senate for Senate Pact (coalition of opposition). OGB prepared also second ExitPoll that was even worse for PiS than those from Ipsos.

https://stanpolityki.pl

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OGB ExitPoll:
PiS - 33,5%
KO - 31,4%
Third Way - 13,9%
Left - 9,8%
Konfederacja - 7,7%

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OGB ExitPoll:
PiS - 33,5%
KO - 31,4%
Third Way - 13,9%
Left - 9,8%
Konfederacja - 7,7%

Is that some sort of update that takes into consideration the real results that we now have?

No, it's ExitPoll from another pollster from yesterday. I think Ipsos one is more accurate, but errors will be in the direction of this second poll.

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Very inefficient votes distribution between opposion parties in constituency no. 17.

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Consituency no. 23 (Rzeszów) fully reported
PiS - 51,60% (-10,78)
KO - 17,70% (+3,31)
Third Way - 12,42% (+4,63)
Konfederacja - 9,48% (+1,23)
Left - 4,87% (-1,72)

PiS - 9 (-1)
KO - 3 (+1)
Third Way - 2 (+1)
Konfederacja - 1
Left - 0 (-1)

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/23

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In Rzeszów PiS received 51% of the votes, but 60% of the seats.
In Czestochowa PiS got 37% of the vote, but 67% of the seats!

No wonder they're still in contention despite most of Poland loathing them, what a broken allocation system.

In Rzeszów in 2015 parliamentary election PiS received 56,1% of votes, but 80% of seats.
I also think that the smallest consituencies for Sejm should be merged to receive more proportional share of seats compared to votes cast.
I think that (Upper) Silesia should be divided into 3 or 4, but not 6 constituencies.