Polish Politics and Elections

[Storr]

Any links to real results ?

There will be no results in next hours, so relax. First partial results on Monday (not Monday night but day).


There you have details from exit poll by IPSOS, in Polish
https://tvn24.pl/wybory-prezydenckie-2020/wyniki-sondazowe-pierwsza-tura

According to the exit poll map, Trzaskowski is leading in regions that were formerly part of German Silesa (but not Upper Silesia) and Pomerania.

[Storr]

https://fakty.interia.pl/raporty/raport-wybory-prezydenckie-2020/aktualnosci/news-wybory-prezydenckie-2020-kto-wygral-wyniki-late-poll,nId,4580582

The most recent Ipsos exit poll I found has it at:

Andrzej Duda: 42.5 percent

Rafał Trzaskowski: 30.3 percent

Szymon Hołownia:   13.5 percent

Krzysztof Bosak:  7.1 percent

Robert Biedroń: 2.5 percent

Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz: 2.5 percent

[Storr]

Turnout projected at 68.9%

If only US elections could have turnout that high....*sigh*

[Storr]

An interesting scenario poll with a united opposition alliance:

https://twitter.com/PiotrDeda/status/1679464456772780034?s=20

[Storr]

Just to note as non-Polish forum members might find it funny:


PM Morawiecki just invited Manfred Weber to the debate before Polish elections, as the narrative is that he is the boss of Tusk and Morawiecki do not want to debate the "intermediaries". Weber rejected the invitation.

I was thinking Tusk could have responded by inviting the chair of European Conservatives and Reformists Party. But then I looked it up, and found out a PiS member is one of the ECR co-chairs.

[Storr]

There's probably personal disputes between party leaders preventing this idea. But with how close Third Way has been flirting with missing the 8% seat threshold for alliances in recent polls, would they ever consider an alliance with Tusk?

I'm assuming they wouldn't, with Tusk being such a divisive (at best) figure.

Edit: I just remembered Polish Coalition barely reached the threshold in 2019 with 8.55%. Good luck this time, lol.

Here's a better question. Who even is Polish Coalition/Third Way's constituency? People that would otherwise support Civic Coalition but don't like Tusk?

[Storr]

"The leader of the Civic Coalition, Donald Tusk, announced a joint start in the autumn parliamentary elections with AgroUnia."

https://www.rp.pl/polityka/art38955421-agrounia-wspolnie-z-ko-w-wyborach-do-sejmu

https://twitter.com/EKOlodziejczak_/status/1691715014267204067?ref_src=twsrc%5Et...

[Storr]

This has the potential to turn into a major issue:

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1701302745649611121?s=20

“Do you know who in Europe brings in the most Muslim immigrants? The government that frightens with them. The PiS government,” - Tusk

https://twitter.com/donaldtusk/status/1699421164253118517?s=20

[Storr]

This is getting ridiculous. I hope PiS loses the election, it's one of the worst governments in Europe.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1706312489967726678

Polish Foreign Minister Zbigniew Rau accused Germany of seeking to interfere in his country's internal affairs after comments from Chancellor Olaf Scholz.

The German leader said Warsaw had questions to answer over allegations that Polish consulates in Africa and Asia sold fast-tracked temporary work visas for thousands of dollars each to migrants.


With migration a central campaign theme ahead of Poland's closely contested mid-October elections, Rau accused Scholz of overstepping a boundary with his clarification request.

"The competence of the German Chancellor clearly does not concern the ongoing proceedings in Poland," the foreign minister wrote on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.

[...]

"How dare a country we share a 467 km long open/free movement border with question our government giving out visas to foreign non-EU nationals in exchange for bribes!"

The PiS strategy of whipping up anti-German sentiment does seem to strike a chord among a significant number of the Polish people (or at least the older generations), but the extent to which the party is taking it is ridiculous.

[Storr]

There was also a debate last night where both Morawiecki and Tusk apparently (I didn't watch) did terribly and both Hołownia and Lewica representative Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus put in respectable performances, but if that was even going to matter in the first place it might be just a smidgen overshadowed now.

I watched this debate-like event and I'm disguested. The hosts were actually PiS functionary and every question had suggestion that Morawiecki's government was much better that Tusk's one.
I think Szymon Hołownia won that farce. Scheuring-Wielus and Bosak had also good performances. Maj from Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy was almost invisible. Morawiecki was very agressive and had the weakest performance. Tusk had troubles in first question, but later successively attacked Morawiecki and PiS.
Here is article about this show: https://www.politico.eu/article/polish-election-debate-descends-into-farce/.

There's no way this happens: "In a bid for redemption, Tusk invited Morawiecki — and the missing Kaczyński — for another debate on Friday.

“You saw what the debate was like — questions longer than answers,” he said.

“We can do a debate with all the media. Maybe conducted not by PiS functionaries, but I am open to any proposal, and will be waiting for you on Friday.”"

[Storr]

I have no idea if this outfit is reputable or not. But I'm sharing this poll because, since they had a very large sample (10,000), they were able to make an interactive electoral district map:

Law and Justice: 33.45% 175 seats
Civic Coalition:    30.85% 154 seats
New Left:           12.88%  53 seats
Third Way:         11.03%  45 seats
Confederation:    8.50%   32 seats

[Storr]

A bunch of polls came out in the past few days. For what it's worth, 4 of 5 polls that came out today have the opposition winning a majority. While the 5th poll has PiS beating KO by 13%, down from 18% in their last poll (?!).

One that caught my attention was this:

Law and Justice: 34.9% 197 seats
Civic Coalition:   28.1.% 154 seats
Third Way:         10.3%  41 seats
New Left:            10.0% 38 seats
Confederation:    8.3%.  29 seats

PiS + Con = 226 seats KO + Third Way + Lewica = 233 seats

The opposition winning a majority despite KO losing to PiS by 6.8% would be wild. That this the highest vote percentage gap between PiS and KO with the opposition still winning a Sjem majority I've seen in a poll.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/notesfrompoland/status/1712415806514991186?s=20

[Storr]

Polls are now closed....now we wait.

[Storr]

9 p.m. IPSOS EXIT POLL

PIS 36.8% - 200 seats
KO 31.6% - 163 seats
TD 13% - 55 seats
Lewica 8.6% - 30 seats
KON 6.2% - 12 seats

KO + TD + Lewica MAJORITY

After Slovakia's exit polls being wrong, I'm being cautious. (Different countries, different quality of polling and all, I know.) But this would be a great result.

[Storr]

We've finally reached 5% of precincts reporting:

Turnout from reporting precincts: 72.24%

Law and Justice: 39.81% 268,556
Civic Coalition:    27.55% 185,848
Third Way:          12.97%  87,504
New Left:            8.53%    57,526
Confederation:    7.17%    48,352

[Storr]

10.3% of precincts reporting:

Turnout from reporting precincts: 72.11%

Law and Justice: 40.17%  612,469
Civic Coalition:    26.55%  404,874
Third Way:          13.66%  208,304
New Left:            8.34%   127,229
Confederation:    7.35%    112,037

[Storr]

10.3% of precincts reporting:

Turnout from reporting precincts: 72.11%

Law and Justice: 40.17%  612,469
Civic Coalition:    26.55%  404,874
Third Way:          13.66%  208,304
New Left:            8.34%   127,229
Confederation:    7.35%    112,037

Mostly results from villages, I'm assuming?

It's a bit hard to tell looking at just the National Election Commission's website. It appears that results aren't mostly from any one particular type of area (villages, cities, etc.).

The electoral district with the current highest percentage of reporting precincts is Częstochowa with 46.79%. (75% of precincts in the city itself are reporting.) In 2019, PiS beat PO by 21.65% here:

Law and Justice: 35.10%
Civic Coalition:    30.43%
Third Way:          13.82%
New Left:            10.25%
Confederation:    6.60%    

[Storr]

Poznán gives 44% to KO, do they do better anywhere else?

But nationally the coalition doesn't look like it'll make it past 30. For a moment it looked promising.

Lower down we got the outcome for Częstochowa, is there a running tally of seats somewhere? I don't see one on Wybory.pl

Poznan was where KO did best in 2019 with 45.38%, fwiw.

Electoral District 18 (Czestochowa), 100% reporting, change from 2019 in Parenthesis:

Law and Justice: 36.35% (-7.93%) 117,756
Civic Coalition:   29.11% (+6.48%) 94,313
Third Way:          14.72% (-0.87%)  47,698
New Left:            9.41% (+0.73%) 30,497
Confederation:    6.56% (+0.49%)  21,256

Edit: Anyone please feel free to do the seat distribution math, I can't at the moment because I'm in class right now. lol.

[Storr]

Consituency no. 21 (Opole) fully reported
KO - 33.59% (+6.68) 161,241
PiS - 31.26% (-6.38) 150,022
Third Way - 12.74% (+2.43) 61,155
Left - 7.24% (-4.50) 34,763
Konfederacja - 6.49% (+0.79) 31,150
German Minority - 5.37% (-2.53) 25,778

Seats
KO - 5 (+1)
PiS - 4 (-1)
Third Way - 1
Left - 1
Konfederacja - 1 (+1)
German Minority - 0 (-1)

German Minority has lost their seat!

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/sejm/wynik/okr/21

According to PiS, the German Minority doesn't have to worry because Pole-in-name-only Tusk will represent them.

[Storr]

nobody said it but the latest vote dump brings PiS under 36%

Let's go! PiS 35.92% at 96.24% reporting.

[Storr]

I believe that this will be the final seat distribution, give or take a seat.

PiS - 194 (-41)
KO - 157 (+23)
Third Way - 65 (+35)
Left - 26 (-23)
Konfederacja - 18 (+7)
German Minority 0 (-1)

KO + TD + Left = 248

Compared to the initial exit poll
PiS -6
KO -6
TD +10
Left -4
KWN +6
The errors balance out so the number of seats the opposition coalition wins remains spot on.

You were spot on with your seat distribution calculations.

Since no one has posted it yet, percentage of votes vs. percentages of seats:

PiS -              35.38% of votes - 42.17% of seats
KO -              30.70% of votes - 34.14% of seats
Third Way -    14.40% of votes - 14.13% of seats
Left -              8.61% of votes - 5.65% of seats
Konfederacja - 7.16% of votes - 3.91% of seats

[Storr]

KO, PL2050, PSL and Lewica signed today their coalition agreement, Tusk PM, Kosiniak-Kamysz (PSL) and Gawkowski (Lewica) will be Deputy PM, Hołownia (PL2050) and Czarzasty (Lewica) may turn chairs at the Marshal/Speaker of Sejm (Szymon the first two years), KO gets the Marshal/Speaker of the Senate but will also change in the middle of the term. Lewica party member Razem it's likely to stay in confidence and support rather than join the government.  The complete composition of the cabinet it's still unknown until Morawiecki' encharge fails.

[snip]
Economy
-Stable, friendly and fair tax system
-Tax cuts for working people to increase labor force participation and support families.
-Restoration of transparency over state finances
-Depoliticization of State-Owned Companies
- Introduction of clear recruitment criteria for management positions in state-owned companies
-Construction of new logistics infrastructure for farmers

[snip]

Notably (for me, anyway) is the absence Euro adoption being mentioned. Despite not at all being a surprise, as someone who is in favor of European integration, it is disappointing to not see it in the coalition agreement.

A 2/3rds Sejm majority is needed to change the constitution which currently establishes the złoty as the national currency. Of course, the coalition does not have such a majority. Poland can't even join ERM-2 (the "waiting room" countries need to join before adopting the Euro) until that constitutional change is made.

That's not even touching on whether or not the coalition's partners support euro adoption. Tusk has been very careful to avoid taking a stance (publicly at least) on the issue due to at best mildly favorable but divided public opinion on the issue.

[Storr]

Politico EU ranked Donald Tusk as the #1 most powerful person in Europe for 2023. They even included the pretentious sub-title "The wind of change".

[Storr]

"Donald Tusk has confirmed the names of members of his government, which is likely to take office next week."

Radosław Sikorski – foreign affairs
Adam Bodnar – justice
Barbara Nowacka – education
Marzena Czarnecka – industry
Czesław Siekierski – agriculture and rural development
Andrzej Domański – finance
Dariusz Wieczorek – science and higher education
Adam Szłapka – Europe
Paulina Hennig-Kloska – climate and environment
Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz - deputy prime minister and defence
Borys Budka - state assets
Agnieszka Dziemianowicz-Bąk - family and social policy
Tomasz Siemoniak - security services
Izabela Leszczyna - health minister
Krzysztof Gawkowski - deputy prime minister and digital affairs
Katarzyna Kotula - equality minister (a new position)


https://twitter.com/notesfrompoland/status/1733098524668006889?s=20