Polish Politics and Elections

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Figure I might as well start this, for all the good it'll do me. These will take place at some point in November, unclear when - legally it should be the 11th but since that is Independence Day and the 100th anniversary too, it's likely it will be moved by a week in either direction.

For context: there is a new electoral law, which reforms the National Electoral Commission (PKW) so that seven out of nine of its members will now be elected directly by the Sejm (with the largest party in the Sejm automatically receiving the right to appoint three) with only two appointed by the Constitutional Tribunal and the Supreme Court, after the 2019 parliamentary election. Beforehand the Constitutional Tribunal, the Supreme Court, and the Chief Administrative Court appointed three members each. It also:

- extends the period between local elections from 4 to 5 years
- introduces a two-term limit for mayors (counting from 2018)
- limits FPTP to municipalities with 20,000 or fewer inhabitants (beforehand FPTP was used everywhere except city-counties which still used PR)
- shrinks the constituencies for regional assemblies (they could be anything from 5 to 15 seats before, now they can be as small as 3 seats with the maximum being just 7)
- severely curtails postal voting (limiting it to disabled people, this is actually a compromise position since PiS wanted it abolished entirely)
- hilariously, changes the definition of a spoiled ballot - only ballots where the voter had put an X next to one candidate were considered valid with any other marks automatically thrown out, now any ballot where the voter put 'at least two intersecting lines' next to their candidate's name is valid, and additional marks will be valid. The current president of the PKW fears that this will make vote counting slower since ballots where the voter's intention might not be easily discerned will still be considered valid.

In actual news:

- The already deeply, deeply stupid campaign in Warsaw just got even more stupid as Janusz Korwin-Mikke, known to you all as that Polish MEP who keeps getting in the international news for saying stupid sexist sh**t, has resigned from the European Parliament and announced that he is considering running for mayor of Warsaw. There goes any remaining chance of the national media covering literally any other city, lol.

- PiS are trying to find a candidate for mayor of the city of Słupsk (north-west) to go up against Robert 'Flawless Beautiful Hope of the Left' Biedroń and are considering Piotr Müller, deputy minister of science. PiS really want to knock off Biedroń in the hopes of neutralising him as a presidential contender in 2020.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=264482.0

Your topic is better so we might write there lel

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=264482.0

Your topic is better so we might write there lel

Ah damn, I hadn't known that was there

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I and heat probably forgot to mention but that info would be probably interesting for all liberal/anti-PiS posters: Nowoczesna and PO decided that they will create common list in the local elections for voivodship assemblies. Although threshold is equal 5% because of electoral system usually real threshold is much higher, especially for districts with small amount of mandates. Nowoczesna might even got 7% in the scale of the country but got very little mandates for the voivodship assemblies. There will be a lot of wasted votes so cooperation is recommended. There are also ongoing talks between Kukiz and Korwin but I doubt that there will be any long-run success.

Voivodship elections are probably the most dominated by political parties while lower levels of local government tend to base on local committees more. Last elections got also a lot of invalid votes so result this year might be interesting.

[Bojicat]

Fears of a looming PiS government monopoly as a result of the recent reform law's passage and other steps has degenerated into sky-is-falling craziness. The electoral reform could (and let me re-emphasize could) enable a single party (i.e., PiS) to dominate the PKW if (and let me re-emphasize if) PiS winds up the preponderant party after 2019 legislative elections. Tall mountains to climb, and even if somehow the peaks are reached, the view will certainly not be that of dictatorship or one-party state terror.

My, how often have I heard the word 'slippery slope' or 'slide to authoritarianism' to describe anything Poland does if there's a Kaczynski anywhere near the Pałac Prezydencki. To me, the hysteria looks more like reflexive anti-Polish poison from Euro-centered apparatchiks fearful of losing their grip, post Brexit. Yet it's having a very hurtful effect on the image of the nation and on its people, as this campaign has caught on worldwide. Poland should be used to attempts by now to delegitimize it, delegitimize its history. But I'm not seeing any intelligent effort from the government to counter this slander. 

Poland itself is absolutely beautiful and the system is 100% democratic. And its system is certainly far more accepting of contrary viewpoints and free thought than the majority of its critics.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Fears of a looming PiS government monopoly as a result of the recent reform law's passage and other steps has degenerated into sky-is-falling craziness. The electoral reform could (and let me re-emphasize could) enable a single party (i.e., PiS) to dominate the PKW if (and let me re-emphasize if) PiS winds up the preponderant party after 2019 legislative elections. Tall mountains to climb, and even if somehow the peaks are reached, the view will certainly not be that of dictatorship or one-party state terror.

My, how often have I heard the word 'slippery slope' or 'slide to authoritarianism' to describe anything Poland does if there's a Kaczynski anywhere near the Pałac Prezydencki. To me, the hysteria looks more like reflexive anti-Polish poison from Euro-centered apparatchiks fearful of losing their grip, post Brexit. Yet it's having a very hurtful effect on the image of the nation and on its people, as this campaign has caught on worldwide. Poland should be used to attempts by now to delegitimize it, delegitimize its history. But I'm not seeing any intelligent effort from the government to counter this slander. 

Poland itself is absolutely beautiful and the system is 100% democratic. And its system is certainly far more accepting of contrary viewpoints and free thought than the majority of its critics.

Please do not copy-paste TVP Info articles without giving credit, there are copyright issues with that sort of thing.

[Bojicat]

Fears of a looming PiS government monopoly as a result of the recent reform law's passage and other steps has degenerated into sky-is-falling craziness. The electoral reform could (and let me re-emphasize could) enable a single party (i.e., PiS) to dominate the PKW if (and let me re-emphasize if) PiS winds up the preponderant party after 2019 legislative elections. Tall mountains to climb, and even if somehow the peaks are reached, the view will certainly not be that of dictatorship or one-party state terror.

My, how often have I heard the word 'slippery slope' or 'slide to authoritarianism' to describe anything Poland does if there's a Kaczynski anywhere near the Pałac Prezydencki. To me, the hysteria looks more like reflexive anti-Polish poison from Euro-centered apparatchiks fearful of losing their grip, post Brexit. Yet it's having a very hurtful effect on the image of the nation and on its people, as this campaign has caught on worldwide. Poland should be used to attempts by now to delegitimize it, delegitimize its history. But I'm not seeing any intelligent effort from the government to counter this slander. 

Poland itself is absolutely beautiful and the system is 100% democratic. And its system is certainly far more accepting of contrary viewpoints and free thought than the majority of its critics.

Please do not copy-paste TVP Info articles without giving credit, there are copyright issues with that sort of thing.

What are you talking about? What is "TVP"?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Can we just kick that spambot already?

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Fears of a looming PiS government monopoly as a result of the recent reform law's passage and other steps has degenerated into sky-is-falling craziness. The electoral reform could (and let me re-emphasize could) enable a single party (i.e., PiS) to dominate the PKW if (and let me re-emphasize if) PiS winds up the preponderant party after 2019 legislative elections. Tall mountains to climb, and even if somehow the peaks are reached, the view will certainly not be that of dictatorship or one-party state terror.

My, how often have I heard the word 'slippery slope' or 'slide to authoritarianism' to describe anything Poland does if there's a Kaczynski anywhere near the Pałac Prezydencki. To me, the hysteria looks more like reflexive anti-Polish poison from Euro-centered apparatchiks fearful of losing their grip, post Brexit. Yet it's having a very hurtful effect on the image of the nation and on its people, as this campaign has caught on worldwide. Poland should be used to attempts by now to delegitimize it, delegitimize its history. But I'm not seeing any intelligent effort from the government to counter this slander.  

Poland itself is absolutely beautiful and the system is 100% democratic. And its system is certainly far more accepting of contrary viewpoints and free thought than the majority of its critics.

Please do not copy-paste TVP Info articles without giving credit, there are copyright issues with that sort of thing.

What are you talking about? What is "TVP"?

hahahahahahahahaha

[Bojicat]

Fears of a looming PiS government monopoly as a result of the recent reform law's passage and other steps has degenerated into sky-is-falling craziness. The electoral reform could (and let me re-emphasize could) enable a single party (i.e., PiS) to dominate the PKW if (and let me re-emphasize if) PiS winds up the preponderant party after 2019 legislative elections. Tall mountains to climb, and even if somehow the peaks are reached, the view will certainly not be that of dictatorship or one-party state terror.

My, how often have I heard the word 'slippery slope' or 'slide to authoritarianism' to describe anything Poland does if there's a Kaczynski anywhere near the Pałac Prezydencki. To me, the hysteria looks more like reflexive anti-Polish poison from Euro-centered apparatchiks fearful of losing their grip, post Brexit. Yet it's having a very hurtful effect on the image of the nation and on its people, as this campaign has caught on worldwide. Poland should be used to attempts by now to delegitimize it, delegitimize its history. But I'm not seeing any intelligent effort from the government to counter this slander. 

Poland itself is absolutely beautiful and the system is 100% democratic. And its system is certainly far more accepting of contrary viewpoints and free thought than the majority of its critics.

Please do not copy-paste TVP Info articles without giving credit, there are copyright issues with that sort of thing.

What are you talking about? What is "TVP"?

hahahahahahahahaha

I now get your point. A feeling that Poland is put-upon at times should be vocalised and recognised by more decent people, and not just be the red meat of mouthpieces like TVP INFO. At some point, it's dangerous for a nation to sit idly, grin and take a punch in the face in stride.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Fears of a looming PiS government monopoly as a result of the recent reform law's passage and other steps has degenerated into sky-is-falling craziness. The electoral reform could (and let me re-emphasize could) enable a single party (i.e., PiS) to dominate the PKW if (and let me re-emphasize if) PiS winds up the preponderant party after 2019 legislative elections. Tall mountains to climb, and even if somehow the peaks are reached, the view will certainly not be that of dictatorship or one-party state terror.

My, how often have I heard the word 'slippery slope' or 'slide to authoritarianism' to describe anything Poland does if there's a Kaczynski anywhere near the Pałac Prezydencki. To me, the hysteria looks more like reflexive anti-Polish poison from Euro-centered apparatchiks fearful of losing their grip, post Brexit. Yet it's having a very hurtful effect on the image of the nation and on its people, as this campaign has caught on worldwide. Poland should be used to attempts by now to delegitimize it, delegitimize its history. But I'm not seeing any intelligent effort from the government to counter this slander.  

Poland itself is absolutely beautiful and the system is 100% democratic. And its system is certainly far more accepting of contrary viewpoints and free thought than the majority of its critics.

Please do not copy-paste TVP Info articles without giving credit, there are copyright issues with that sort of thing.

What are you talking about? What is "TVP"?

hahahahahahahahaha

I now get your point. A feeling that Poland is put-upon at times should be vocalised and recognised by more decent people, and not just be the red meat of mouthpieces like TVP INFO. At some point, it's dangerous for a nation to sit idly, grin and take a punch in the face in stride.

Lecturing people on how great the government of their own country, where you do not live and which you do not have any connection to, is is not as edgy as you think it is btw

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Lolnews: Polish Greens decided to start in the elections on voivodship level alone.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

What are you talking about? What is "TVP"?

It's better known as RT.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Lolnews: Polish Greens decided to start in the elections on voivodship level alone.

Also "my cock is bigger" context between Czarzasty and Zandberg is more boring than before.

Razem continues to be cute, trying to present themselves as the only principled and unembroiled "force", while trying hard to get into the "mainstream", to the extend they fell into a "no, no, we're not communists, seriously" hole.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Lolnews: Polish Greens decided to start in the elections on voivodship level alone.

Greens: we want progressive forces to be united!
also Greens: we're going to run by ourselves and get our usual 0.3% again

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Also, PO and .N announced that their coalition's slogan for the elections would be 'Bliżej ludzi' - 'closer to the people'.

This was PiS' slogan in the 2006 local elections and the URL blizejludzi.pl is still taken by their campaign website from then.

Incredible.

[ionx]

The incumbent mayor of Gdańsk, Paweł Adamowicz will seek re-election in the upcoming election. He will probably be supported by the main opposition parties, so that's probably an easy win for the parliamentary minority. Another strong candidate which probably won't be beaten by the ruling party is Rafał Trzaskowski from Warsaw, who has already begun his campaign. He focuses - as for now - mainly on the issue of women's rights, equal opportunities etc. It would be kind of hard for him to lose: he is supported by three parties: the Civic Platform, .Modern and the Democratic Left Alliance. The polls show that we can expect a second round between Trzaskowski and the candidate of Law and Justice, which would be easily won by Trzaskowski.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Also, PO and .N announced that their coalition's slogan for the elections would be 'Bliżej ludzi' - 'closer to the people'.

This was PiS' slogan in the 2006 local elections and the URL blizejludzi.pl is still taken by their campaign website from then.

Incredible.
[/quote

PO and .N are not exactly known for their sense of self-awareness.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

The incumbent mayor of Gdańsk, Paweł Adamowicz will seek re-election in the upcoming election. He will probably be supported by the main opposition parties, so that's probably an easy win for the parliamentary minority. Another strong candidate which probably won't be beaten by the ruling party is Rafał Trzaskowski from Warsaw, who has already begun his campaign. He focuses - as for now - mainly on the issue of women's rights, equal opportunities etc. It would be kind of hard for him to lose: he is supported by three parties: the Civic Platform, .Modern and the Democratic Left Alliance. The polls show that we can expect a second round between Trzaskowski and the candidate of Law and Justice, which would be easily won by Trzaskowski.

Holy sh**t, now we have 4 Poles on the Atlas. As for the Trzaskowski campaign focuses he still has no official programme and no official opponent from PiS so we should probably wait for the real campaign to start.

[jaichind]

Any reason why PiS have such a lead in the national polls.  One would expect that by now anti-incumbency would have weight down on them.  Although I noticed that between 2007 and 2011 PO had large leads over PiS the entire time.  Is it part of the Polish political culture to give outsizes support to the ruling party in between elections ?

[wxtransit]

Incredible.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Any reason why PiS have such a lead in the national polls.  One would expect that by now anti-incumbency would have weight down on them.  Although I noticed that between 2007 and 2011 PO had large leads over PiS the entire time.  Is it part of the Polish political culture to give outsizes support to the ruling party in between elections ?

In my opinion (so consider this as only my opinion, not objective truth) this is mainly caused by lack of alternative and political conjuncture. In the times of PO cabinets, especially first one PiS was generally considered as party which can't win, some loosers who shouldn't be treated seriously. On the other hand PO was considered as serious party of serious people who knows what to do during the crisis. PiS still got their core electorate of course, so they had some support but not that big as today). But as now in Poland mainly centre electorate is deciding who is going to win and then that part of society before 2014 were supporting PO. Now situation is different, PO is considered as weak, corrupted and without any real idea what they want to do. So not many voters (even those who are their natural electorate) are treating them seriously. On the other hand PiS got a lot of middle class voters, some part of economically less privileged people so they easily could win elections. So I guess this is not pattern that Poles tend to support party between elections (although to some extend this is truth as for example ruling party have access to the public media, they can actually do something etc.) just combination of few processes. We must also remember that turnout is usually low in Poland so PiS might got support from people who never voted PO or PiS before and PO voters might do not vote during next elections.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I am a little bit skeptical and I do not want to judge too fast but there is visible surge of support for SLD in few recent polls. That is bad news for almost everyone.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I am a little bit skeptical and I do not want to judge too fast but there is visible surge of support for SLD in few recent polls. That is bad news for almost everyone.

9% in one poll, 3% in the next. I'll believe it when I see it...

In local election news, the independent but de facto PO-affiliated mayor of Gdansk, Pawel Adamowicz, was expected to retire after allegations that he had omitted several flats and a large amount of savings from his declaration of financial interests. PO leader Schetyna's plan was to run MP Jaroslaw Walesa (son of Lech Walesa) for the mayoralty instead, but Adamowicz has just announced that he will run for another term after all regardless of what PO do. Polls show Adamowicz would top the poll in the first round, but the split may lead to a runoff between a PiS candidate and an incumbent with the stench of possible corruption hanging over him. Gdansk has traditionally been the PO stronghold, so PiS winning it (which still seems very unlikely) would be a huge blow.

[Mazda]

Are Razem in contention for any seats anywhere?