El Salvador 2024 electoral-type events: Presidential and Legislative (Feb. 4), Locals (Mar. 3)
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Author Topic: El Salvador 2024 electoral-type events: Presidential and Legislative (Feb. 4), Locals (Mar. 3)  (Read 1345 times)
MRCVzla
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« on: February 03, 2024, 04:37:45 PM »
« edited: February 03, 2024, 09:19:27 PM by MRCVzla »

If there's no surprise, incumbent President and notable populist crypto-bro Nayib Bukele will win by "North Korean margins" his controversial and unconstitutional re-election (o what he and his followers calls "second mandate") bid tomorrow. With or without suspects of electoral fraud as the guy is supposedly very popular within Salvadorians due to fix the security problems making pacts with the Maras gangs, but sacrifice multi-party Democracy de-facto as the ARENA and FMLN post-civil war parties are still very unpopular but enough to concentrate a lot of people when they are protesting against Bukele' policies.

Bukele do not reformed the Constitution to secure a legally inmediate re-election bid (both Electoral and Supreme Court -appointed by Bukele's party NI-controlled Legislative- allowed his candidacy, as his ongoing mandate is in "suspension" as he designated his private secretary to hold office for six months before the new term starts)... but did an major electoral and administrative State reform, the size of the Legislative Assembly will be reduced by 84 to 60 seats (the number of seats prior of the post-civil war "peace agreements" in the late 80s) with no more "largest remainders" but constituency-level D'Hondt, so the probabilities of Nuevas Ideas (NI) to get almost all the seats are very high (see below), and also a cut in the number of municipalities, reducing from 262 municipalities to just 44, with accusations of gerrymandering at all, in order to get more effective and equitable budgetary burden.

Six formulas are on the Presidential ballot:
Nayib Bukele/Félix Ulloa (Nuevas Ideas, big-tent populism); both incumbents, around high 60s-low 80% in latest opinion polls.
Joel Sánchez/Hilicia Bonilla (ARENA, right-wing); around 3-4% in opinion polls.
Manuel Flores/Werner Marroquín (FMLN, left-wing); around 2-4% in opinion polls.
Luis Parada/Celia Medrano (Nuestro Tiempo, center-left); around 1-2% in opinion polls.
Javier Renderos/Rafael Montalvo (Fuerza Solidaria, right-wing, splinter of ARENA and GANA) 0-1%
Marina Murillo/Fausto Carranza (FPS, right-wing) 0-1%

In parliamentary polls, NI could get 56-58 seats, with the other parties may allocate the other 2-4 seats (1-2 ARENA, 1 FMLN, 0-1 GANA, 0-1 PDC), NI got 56/84 seats on the 2021 parliamentary election, Bukele's popularity was at least above 70% in pre-campaign polls, and the potential turnout above 80%. Brace yourselves.

More background at Wiki: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Salvadoran_general_election
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MRCVzla
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« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2024, 07:21:33 PM »

Exit poll/"boca de urna" by CID Gallup (announced by the government' Press Secretary of the Presidency)
Bukele (NI)  87%
Flores (FMLN) 7%
Sánchez (ARENA) 4%

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MRCVzla
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« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2024, 08:35:14 PM »

Bukele (aka World's "Coolest Dictator") proclaims himself as the winner before the official preliminary results are known.
https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1754307883586494722
Quote
According to our numbers, we have won the presidential election with more than 85% of the votes and a minimum of 58 of 60 deputies in the Assembly.

The record in the entire democratic history of the world.

See you at 9pm in front of the National Palace.

God bless El Salvador.
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ReallySuper
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« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2024, 08:36:40 PM »

a poet was arrested outside a polling station for reading the articles of the salvadoran constitution that prohibit presidential reelection

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ReallySuper
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« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2024, 09:16:08 PM »

this is also the first election with both online and in-person electronic voting for salvadorans living abroad. the contract for developing the electronic voting system (el salvador only uses paper ballots in its elections) was awarded by the government to a spanish company whose contract had the fewest details and the highest price (which increased during the contracting process in violation of salvadoran law), as well as no plan to ensure accuracy or prevent fraud/manipulation of the votes.

the voting centers abroad are in many cases being operated by members of nuevas ideas, as leaked audio shows the president's cabinet instructing poll workers abroad to coordinate with the consulates and disregard the law to facilitate a strong electoral showing for bukele since the party and the electoral board are on the same side. also, although the election observers are supposed to have representatives of the three largest parties, the electoral board ruled that the fmln would be replaced by gana, NI's coalition partner, and all of arena's election observers were rejected and did not receive their credentials. reports also show that the embassy/consulate officials (who are not supposed to be involved in the election) and nuevas ideas party officials are pulling people out of line to "help" them vote online rather than on the electronic voting machines.

the legislative votes abroad are also being directed into the san salvador department, which is understood to be a political maneuver to increase NI's votes in the area of the country which elected the most opposition candidates in the last election.
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wnwnwn
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« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2024, 09:51:42 PM »

I suppose he would have won fairly the presidential election (with a changed cosntitution, btw).
Obviously he also wants a congress +66% majority, so there are incentives to electoral fraud...
He is popular right now, but as crime go out of the spotlighr, things may start to change.
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Senator Incitatus
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« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2024, 10:18:50 PM »

This margin is clearly fraudulent. South Carolina is not a democracy.
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MRCVzla
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« Reply #7 on: February 04, 2024, 10:46:31 PM »

Preliminary results site up some minutes ago: https://preliminar.tse.gob.sv/resultados/dashboard-index-1
For the Parliamentary election: https://preliminar.tse.gob.sv/resultados/dashboard-index-3

22.2% processed (1900/8562 precincts, mosty rural, only 5 precincts counted in San Salvador out from 2215):
NI (Bukele) 1,090,522 (82.9%)
FMLN (Flores) 93,846 (7.1%)
ARENA (Sánchez) 81,102 (6.2%)
NT (Parada) 29,310 (2.2%)
FS (Renderos) 11,388 (0.9%)
FPS (Murillo) 8,587 (0.7%)
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« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2024, 12:50:45 AM »

I suppose he would have won fairly the presidential election (with a changed cosntitution, btw).
Obviously he also wants a congress +66% majority, so there are incentives to electoral fraud...
He is popular right now, but as crime go out of the spotlighr, things may start to change.
yeah, it's not very dissimilar from Putin in that way. Putin could win a fair election most likely, with like 55-60%, and I think Bukele probably would too, but he wants more.
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Matty
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« Reply #9 on: February 05, 2024, 12:50:56 AM »

dictator or not, he has been immensely successful in bringing down murder/crime rates. It is one the fastest plunges in homicide rates the world has ever seen.

He is using the power of the state to go after criminals and gangsters. He isn't using the power of the state to go after marginalized or vulnerable minority groups.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
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« Reply #10 on: February 05, 2024, 06:43:59 AM »

dictator or not, he has been immensely successful in bringing down murder/crime rates. It is one the fastest plunges in homicide rates the world has ever seen.

He is using the power of the state to go after criminals and gangsters. He isn't using the power of the state to go after marginalized or vulnerable minority groups.

Gangsters and anyone who vaguely seems like a gangster, of course. And journalists.
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wnwnwn
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« Reply #11 on: February 05, 2024, 08:22:09 AM »

dictator or not, he has been immensely successful in bringing down murder/crime rates. It is one the fastest plunges in homicide rates the world has ever seen.

He is using the power of the state to go after criminals and gangsters. He isn't using the power of the state to go after marginalized or vulnerable minority groups.

Gangsters and anyone who vaguely seems like a gangster, of course. And journalists.

A problem is that a lot of his critics focus on the treatment of prisioners when that's one of the most popular Bukele policies with lay people. The lack of a due process and the limitations of freedom of press are overlooked.
Bukele has a big popularity right now on the region. He is more praised by the right, but I'm pretty sure the average working class left leaning latino has a good image of him too. I'm pretty sure the average Castillo voter wpuld like Bukele style prisons in Peru.
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MRCVzla
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« Reply #12 on: February 05, 2024, 11:13:42 AM »

70.3% processed (6015/8562 precincts)
NI (Bukele) 1,662,313 (83.14%)
FMLN (Flores) 139,025 (6.95%)
ARENA (Sánchez) 122,926 (6.15%)
NT (Parada) 45,516 (2.28%)
FS (Renderos) 16,317 (0.82%)
FPS (Murillo) 13,432 (0.67%)
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #13 on: February 05, 2024, 01:51:25 PM »

dictator or not, he has been immensely successful in bringing down murder/crime rates. It is one the fastest plunges in homicide rates the world has ever seen.

He is using the power of the state to go after criminals and gangsters. He isn't using the power of the state to go after marginalized or vulnerable minority groups.

Gangsters and anyone who vaguely seems like a gangster, of course. And journalists.

A problem is that a lot of his critics focus on the treatment of prisioners when that's one of the most popular Bukele policies with lay people. The lack of a due process and the limitations of freedom of press are overlooked.
Bukele has a big popularity right now on the region. He is more praised by the right, but I'm pretty sure the average working class left leaning latino has a good image of him too. I'm pretty sure the average Castillo voter wpuld like Bukele style prisons in Peru.

The average Castillo voter probably thinks he did nothing wrong a year ago and thinks he should still be president.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #14 on: February 05, 2024, 06:55:02 PM »

dictator or not, he has been immensely successful in bringing down murder/crime rates. It is one the fastest plunges in homicide rates the world has ever seen.

He is using the power of the state to go after criminals and gangsters. He isn't using the power of the state to go after marginalized or vulnerable minority groups.

Maybe, but how many innocent people are in jail without a trial? And how many criminals are free because their gang has a deal with Bukule?
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ottermax
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« Reply #15 on: February 06, 2024, 01:21:40 PM »

Have any results been released for legislative seats or results by department? I'm curious to see how genuine the results are or if there are any patterns of opposition.

I also want to add looking at the results and different media coverage, the sheer amount of support and defensiveness for Bukele online is really absurd. I think it is commendable to bring down murder rates and make El Salvador safe, but I'm shocked at how defensive people seem to be to any criticism of this man.

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Edu
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« Reply #16 on: February 06, 2024, 01:33:08 PM »

Awesome!
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MRCVzla
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« Reply #17 on: February 06, 2024, 01:47:39 PM »

Have any results been released for legislative seats or results by department? I'm curious to see how genuine the results are or if there are any patterns of opposition.

I also want to add looking at the results and different media coverage, the sheer amount of support and defensiveness for Bukele online is really absurd. I think it is commendable to bring down murder rates and make El Salvador safe, but I'm shocked at how defensive people seem to be to any criticism of this man.


Here: https://preliminar.tse.gob.sv/resultados/dashboard-index-3
But they only counted 5% of processed minutes for the Legislative elections, the overall count has been stopped due to transmission failures and a total recount it's being held right now for the Legislative election, as well for the missing 30% of the precincts for the Presidential election.

Quote
TSE will count vote by vote to define deputies, due to transmission failures
YOLANDA MAGANA TUESDAY 06, FEBRUARY 2024 - 4:00 AM
More than 8,500 ballot boxes will be opened to count “vote by vote” and define the 2024-2027 legislative composition, in addition to counting 29% of the presidential election ballots.

A total of 11,109 voting boxes will be opened by the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) after complaints from all political parties due to failures in the system for transmitting electoral results for the elections on Sunday, February 4.

The TSE will begin the final count today based on only 6,015 count records of the presidential election that could be digitized and transmitted; and therefore discarding the manual records that, at 2:12 am, he ordered the Vote Receiving Boards to carry out.

The presiding magistrate, Dora Esmeralda Martínez de Barahona, was the one who announced the opening of the 2,547 ballot boxes with presidential voting ballots and the 8,562 ballot boxes with legislative voting ballots.

The official, who did not accept questions from journalists, did not explain why the final count will be based on the transmitted minutes, discarding the minutes made by hand, which will be replaced by the vote-by-vote count.

Nor did she explain the protocol for the custody of the electoral packages that contain the ballots that were recounted to define the result of the presidential election and the result of the election of candidates for deputies.

Because?
The Court could not explain yesterday why many Vote Receiving Boards (JRV) could not transmit their minutes with the presidential votes and for deputies of the Legislative Assembly; and why results from ballots entered into the system were duplicated. The justices did not answer questions at a news conference.

Only substitute magistrate Marlon Harold Cornejo was the one who requested an exhaustive internal investigation of the failures in the electoral transmission, through a press release.

A technician said it could have been a software programming error.

The “table count” software used in the 2021 elections, when there were 84 deputies, was adjusted in August 2023 after the Assembly reduced the number of deputies, as ordered by President Nayib Bukele. The update was carried out by personnel from the Computer Services Unit (USI), directed by Ignacio Villagrán, and required an update of the new constituencies, the new number of officials and the new formula to define the number of deputies.

In the process, the “cloning technique” was used in order to erase the 2021 system.

An electoral source assured that on Sunday, in some JRVs, there were computers that were not cloned. Another electoral source admitted that the data “is duplicated” but assured that the system “only takes the last one.” The TSE tried to correct the mistake using manual records, but yesterday decided to discard them for the final scrutiny.

The data
One of the contenders, Nayib Bukele, claimed 58 of 60 deputies “at least.” Cid Gallup estimates 54 deputies for Nuevas Ideas, 1 from the PDC and 5 in dispute with the opposition.
3 facts you should know

1.- Where the minutes go
The closing and scrutiny minutes of the JRVs must be packaged and delivered by the JRVs to the Municipal Electoral Board (JEM).

2.- “Full validity”
Of each record, the JRV must deliver a copy to each of the match watchers. The JRV minutes will be the only one that will have “full validity.”

3.- From the JED to the TSE
The JEM will prepare municipal minutes and deliver the minutes to the JED in no more than 16 hours. The 14 JEDs must deliver to the TSE.

Source in Spanish: https://diario.elmundo.sv/politica/tse-contara-voto-por-voto-para-definir-diputados-por-fallas-en-la-transmision
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ReallySuper
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« Reply #18 on: February 06, 2024, 02:24:14 PM »

who wouldve expected that making a drastic change to the electoral system/constituencies just a few months before the election would create problems... almost like there was a law in place to prevent electoral changes within a year of an election that nuevas ideas repealed to force through their gerrymandered plan to consolidate power...
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« Reply #19 on: February 06, 2024, 06:38:17 PM »

Have any results been released for legislative seats or results by department? I'm curious to see how genuine the results are or if there are any patterns of opposition.

I also want to add looking at the results and different media coverage, the sheer amount of support and defensiveness for Bukele online is really absurd. I think it is commendable to bring down murder rates and make El Salvador safe, but I'm shocked at how defensive people seem to be to any criticism of this man.



It’s a cult of personality.
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ReallySuper
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« Reply #20 on: February 07, 2024, 10:49:14 AM »

the final count/recount of 30% of the presidential ballots that weren't reported in the preliminary results as well as 100% of the legislative votes begins today (the head of the electoral board described the preliminary vote count, despite its complete failure, as having been done in an "accurate and transparent manner" to the country and international community). there are understandably a lot of concerns both generally about the recount and specifically that the san salvador votes were not secured by the electoral authorities in between the time the transmission of preliminary votes was ended and the time of the recount. (one article shows how a massive amount of ballot boxes, many having been opened/in bad condition, were sent to be stored in a bodega without explanation)

this quote is from a protest on monday night by several women's collectives in san salvador:

Quote
Estamos listas para luchar por nuestros derechos humanos porque El Salvador no es la finca de los Bukele, ni de nadie que quiera venir a tomar por la fuerza las tierras bañadas con sangre en búsqueda de dignidad y justicia, con la memoria de nuestras compañeras que han dando su vida en la lucha por un país justo, nos presentamos y unimos en un grito colectivo DICTADURA NUNCA MÁS.

We are ready to fight for our human rights because El Salvador is not the estate1 of the Bukeles, nor of anyone who wants to come and take by force the lands bathed in blood in search of dignity and justice, with the memory of our compañeras who have given their lives in the fight for a just country, we show up and unite ourselves in a collective cry, DICTATORSHIP NEVER AGAIN.

1"finca" in spanish, which carries a specific connotation in el salvador since it really refers to a tract of land, especially the coffee plantations that exploited the campesinas and campesinos for generations as essentially all the land in the country was owned by fourteen oligarchic families until the peace accords led to (some) land redistribution.
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ReallySuper
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« Reply #21 on: February 07, 2024, 04:34:07 PM »

the fmln will meet with other opposition parties and ask that the legislative elections be annulled due to the issues in the collection and counting of votes. they want the legislative election to be reheld alongside the already-scheduled municipal and central american parliament elections on march 3rd.

arena has also called for the elections to be annulled if the electoral tribunal goes through with their intent to open three voting centers in the u.s. for voters who werent able to vote after poll closing time although they were in line. the electoral code says that elections must be annulled if they are held anytime other than their scheduled date.
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MRCVzla
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« Reply #22 on: February 09, 2024, 03:36:12 PM »

Update with the preliminary/final results, released in TSE' HQs but not yet on their website, 99.3% counted for the Presidential elections, confirms 84.7% for Bukele with almost 2.7 million votes. Turnout: 52.3%

Nuevas Ideas   2,684,364   84.66%
FMLN   202,856   6.40%
Arena   176,621   5.57%
Nuestro Tiempo   64,441   2.03%
Fuerza Solidaria   23,272   0.73%
FPS   19,123   0.60%

Source (in Spanish): https://diario.elmundo.sv/politica/asi-van-los-resultados-presidenciales-2024-con-el-9927-de-actas-escrutadas

TSE' tweet at 99.1% proccessed:
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MRCVzla
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« Reply #23 on: March 06, 2024, 03:21:00 PM »

Local elections and PARLACEN elections (the "so called" second round) were held the past weekend with a low turnout below 25%, according to preliminary results at 78% of the processed precincts, Bukele' Nuevas Ideas party is leading in 28/44 municipalities (2 of them in coalition with Democratic Change/CD) being the Capital San Salvador Centro the most notable, GANA leads in 6, Christian Democrat PDC at 4 (including San Miguel Centro or San Miguel Norte), PCN with 3 plus 1 in coaltion with PDC (both PCN and PDC are government' allies), 1 for Fuerza Solidaria and 1 to ARENA. Final results are starting to process since this week.

To recapitulate the final results of the "first round", no excempted of controversy, Bukele got 2.7 million votes (more than 300k of them in the abroad vote), in the Legislative election, NI got 54/60 deputies, PCN 2, PDC 1, ARENA 2 and VAMOS 1, FMLN got kicked out.
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ReallySuper
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« Reply #24 on: March 20, 2024, 01:16:24 PM »

pcn, pdc and gana are coalition partners of nuevas ideas, so the opposition has been reduced to just three seats between arena and vamos. with fmln gone there are no leftists left in the legislature. one civil society group calculated the results if the electoral reform passed by the governing coalition had not been enacted (thus if the number of seats and municipalities had stayed the same):

Legislative Assembly (+/- change from 2021)
NI 60 seats (+4)
ARENA 7 seats (-7)
FMLN 6 seats (+2)
PCN 2 seats (=)
GANA 3 seats (-2)
PDC 2 seats (+1)
Vamos 3 seats (+2)
Nuestro Tiempo 1 seat (=)

Municipal elections (+/- change from 2021)
NI 122 municipalities (-30)
GANA 36 (+8)
PDC 27 (+24)
FMLN 21 (-9)
PCN 18 (+4)
Fuerza Solidaria 12 (+12)
ARENA 11 (-25)
PCN-PDC 9 (+9)
PCN-GANA 3 (+3)
CD 1 (+1)
Vamos 0 (-1)
Nuestro Tiempo 0 (=)

NI would have a supermajority in the legislative assembly regardless, although fmln and vamos would gain seats and nuestro tiempo (also in the opposition) would have kept its seat. NI would have lost its absolute majority of municipalities; the opposition would also lose municipal seats, although at least fmln would not have been completely wiped out. speaking of which, after losing all their legislative seats and municipalities, fmln has vowed a "total reorganization" and their presidential candidate chino flores is aiming to become secretary-general of the party.

the parlacen elections were relatively unscathed by the governments electoral reforms, although they were the lowest turnout ever and 10% of votes were blank/invalid:

NI 613,965 53.39% 13 seats (-1)
ARENA 126,724 11.02% 2 seats (-1)
FMLN 98,926 8.60% 2 seats (+1)
GANA 90,241 7.85% 2 seats (+1)
PDC 87,997 7.65% 1 seat (+1)
PCN 72,068 6.27% 0 seats (-1)
Fuerza Solidaria 37,899 3.30% 0 seats (=)
CD 22,094 1.92% 0 seats (=)
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