Polish Politics and Elections

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I do wonder what caused Kon's decline in the polls. They were at 15% this summer. Do the Polish posters know more about this?

Mentzen had a massive PR blitz over the summer which attracted a lot of interest, but as is often the case with these things, they overdid it (and polls are often wonky over the summer anyway, because who on earth is talking to pollsters while on holiday). He also turned out to be shockingly unprepared in actual interviews and debates - the lowest point was when Ryszard Petru, of all people, gatecrashed one of his rallies, heckled him with basic questions about his manifesto, and left him stumbling. Konfa have now instead fallen back on their Old Reliable of Bosak, who despite having Patrick Bateman vibes at least does actual prep before going on TV.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1711358435051065710?t=3VpV0vc3oE9fZxeXIP...
This is a good public presentation of the math that I have done in the background. A PiS leaning outlet, compared to the averages, gives us a 6% lead over PO and only 9% for all the smaller tickets. But this is only a 8 seat majority for PiS+Confed. PO+ and/or the minor parties - including Confed here since they take for PiS - doing a little bit better rapidly drops that total. PiS falls below PO+ in more Western constituencies, transferring D'Hondt 'bonus' seats  awarded in allocation to the opposition. The minor parties doing a bit better gives them representation approximatly everywhere, including in the places PO+ can't make a targeted appeal towards. That's why I say 35-30-10-10-10 is the divider, with PiS or PO governments becoming increasingly likely depending on the deviations from that line and in what direction.

A more divided constellation of parties getting a majority in D'Hondt is hard when they are also losing first place,  and yet somehow the PiS voter concentration makes it possible.

I don't understand what it is you're trying to prove anymore. You're bringing up lots of things that are either obvious or not relevant, and seemingly trying to pass them off as insights that prove you somehow have special knowledge. That is really, incredibly rude behaviour on a forum where people come specifically to learn about things.

This isn't 'two different perspectives: me looking at structural barriers and you looking at the electoral map'. The 'electoral map' is literally the structure, that's kind of the point. I didn't bring up the idea of PO winning the popular vote but fewer seats because I was predicting it, I did it because it illustrates something important about the 'electoral map'.

You imply I'm not looking at all the parties. The poll you cite shows 46.2% for PiS+Konfa and 49.2% for KO+Lewica+3D. Despite being 'behind' by 3 points, PiS+Konfa are still projected to have a majority of the seats. That's the actually important thing here, it makes no sense to dismiss it with 'only an 8 seat majority'! In 2019, PiS and Konfa got 50.4% and 246 seats together - in this projection, they're losing over 4 points, but only 8 seats and still have a majority together. Almost as if the 'electoral map', drawn as is, very slightly favours them. Please, give addition and subtraction a go before you move on to the D'Hondt method.

And no, this is not just some standard bonus D'Hondt gives to larger parties. It's not even normal for Polish elections. 2015 was the first election ever where a single party won a majority of the seats. Before that it would always have been mathematically possible for other parties to 'gang up' on the largest one, if they wanted to. That's literally how a proportional system works, and it's why 'A more divided constellation of parties getting a majority in D'Hondt is hard when they are also losing first place,  and yet somehow the PiS voter concentration makes it possible.' is a genuinely bizarre thing to say. I'm going to keep insisting on this point - PiS voter concentration is one of the things making such a thing unusually difficult. This is not FPTP and in a close race, the 'bonus' from winning a lot of extra western districts by small margins can be balanced out by the 'bonus' from winning a lot of eastern districts by large margins and on lower turnouts, while still polling respectably everywhere else. This isn't even specific to PiS. If Third Way do well they will probably benefit from a similar effect on a much smaller scale.

Actually, I say this isn't FPTP, but the Senate is, and... doesn't the fact that KO+Lewica+PSL did better in the Senate than in the Sejm kind of illustrate something?

Anyway, you don't have to make up hypothetical districts here. You can literally just mess around a bit with this website, which uses results from 2019 (and 2020 voter flow data for Third Way, which I admit might be a bit problematic). This one does the same, although it seems to be down right now. Of course there's no sure way of knowing how the regional swings will fall, but on that basis our whole discussion might be pointless anyway

You're obviously right that how the smaller parties do matters a lot. In particular, there's a 'twilight zone' in the single digits where a party can cross the 5% threshold but still do far worse in seats than its vote share suggests, because it's missing out in a lot of districts. Konfederacja ending up there in 2019 was a big reason why PiS got a majority in the end. It rising far above that in the summer was the main reason why a KO+3D+Lewica majority seemed out of reach, and it dipping down from that while Lewica and 3D improve a bit, so that they pick up seats lost by PiS that could have gone to Konfa, is the main reason why it seems more attainable again.

Will PiS get fewer seats if it gets fewer votes? Yes, obviously, that's not an insight, but there are lots of reasons why this is such an uncertain election, and I'd really appreciate it if you didn't misinform people about them. There's no point to this forum otherwise.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

You come off as confrontational. If I did previously, then I am sorry. So I am just going to TL:DR what I am trying to convey:

Empirical studies based on other, more popular concepts of disproportionality show that the D'Hondt method is one of the least proportional among the proportional representation methods. The D'Hondt favours large parties and coalitions over small parties due to strategic voting. In comparison, the Sainte-Laguë method, reduces the disproportional bias towards large parties and it generally has a more equal seats-to-votes ratio for different sized parties.

If we were to reverse the 2019 election using the calculator (arguably a much neater version of my stats tables, but without regional weights) that you linked for example, PO+ suddenly starts to have a much more efficient vote total. The seat counts do not perfectly reverse, I would say largely thanks to how voters abroad are handled (which is stupid and benefits PiS, but you either play by the rules of the game, no matter how hypothetically gerrymandered and oppressive, or you boycott and delegitimize the contest) but also cause PO's "lane" has a third party competing for allocations, so the west can never be as favorable to PO as the east to PiS in seat allotments.

All this fire and fury has been to try and say pure D'hondt is not a proportional system from my perspective, getting more and more unproportional the number of tickets you add to system and the larger a single party becomes (and the smaller the number of seats per consituency, but thats not a issue here). It is quite literally FPTP but with more than one seat, or more 'posts,' per district. And every such system has some clickbait newsgrabber of how a mathematically precisely distributed coalition can end up with absurd representation when compared to votes won. Division is punished harshly and unity greatly. And so I am trying to explain, perhaps in a roundabout way, how those harmed by the system can still make themselves be the winners.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

In actual news, the chief of the General Staff and the armed forces operational commander just resigned, apparently in protest of the defence minister regularly bypassing them and using the army as political props.

There was also a debate last night where both Morawiecki and Tusk apparently (I didn't watch) did terribly and both Hołownia and Lewica representative Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus put in respectable performances, but if that was even going to matter in the first place it might be just a smidgen overshadowed now.

[Logical]

Apparently the final straw was using military Hercules transporters to evacuate Poles in Israel when Ben Gurion Airport is.... (checks notes) functioning normally.
https://twitter.com/mblaszczak/status/1711618808169836709

[M0096]

There was also a debate last night where both Morawiecki and Tusk apparently (I didn't watch) did terribly and both Hołownia and Lewica representative Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus put in respectable performances, but if that was even going to matter in the first place it might be just a smidgen overshadowed now.

I watched this debate-like event and I'm disguested. The hosts were actually PiS functionary and every question had suggestion that Morawiecki's government was much better that Tusk's one.
I think Szymon Hołownia won that farce. Scheuring-Wielus and Bosak had also good performances. Maj from Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy was almost invisible. Morawiecki was very agressive and had the weakest performance. Tusk had troubles in first question, but later successively attacked Morawiecki and PiS.
Here is article about this show: https://www.politico.eu/article/polish-election-debate-descends-into-farce/.

[Storr]

There was also a debate last night where both Morawiecki and Tusk apparently (I didn't watch) did terribly and both Hołownia and Lewica representative Joanna Scheuring-Wielgus put in respectable performances, but if that was even going to matter in the first place it might be just a smidgen overshadowed now.

I watched this debate-like event and I'm disguested. The hosts were actually PiS functionary and every question had suggestion that Morawiecki's government was much better that Tusk's one.
I think Szymon Hołownia won that farce. Scheuring-Wielus and Bosak had also good performances. Maj from Bezpartyjni Samorządowcy was almost invisible. Morawiecki was very agressive and had the weakest performance. Tusk had troubles in first question, but later successively attacked Morawiecki and PiS.
Here is article about this show: https://www.politico.eu/article/polish-election-debate-descends-into-farce/.

There's no way this happens: "In a bid for redemption, Tusk invited Morawiecki — and the missing Kaczyński — for another debate on Friday.

“You saw what the debate was like — questions longer than answers,” he said.

“We can do a debate with all the media. Maybe conducted not by PiS functionaries, but I am open to any proposal, and will be waiting for you on Friday.”"

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I do wonder what caused Kon's decline in the polls. They were at 15% this summer. Do the Polish posters know more about this?

Mentzen had a massive PR blitz over the summer which attracted a lot of interest, but as is often the case with these things, they overdid it (and polls are often wonky over the summer anyway, because who on earth is talking to pollsters while on holiday). He also turned out to be shockingly unprepared in actual interviews and debates - the lowest point was when Ryszard Petru, of all people, gatecrashed one of his rallies, heckled him with basic questions about his manifesto, and left him stumbling. Konfa have now instead fallen back on their Old Reliable of Bosak, who despite having Patrick Bateman vibes at least does actual prep before going on TV.

Adding to that there were also voices of some data analysts and journalists that they overinvested into TikTok media content which apparently is now not really that friendly for Mentzen content. Other to that - due to the polls and voting intention more detailed reserach Konfederacja electorate was from all the party electorates the most inclined to change their party choice, probably due to the popularity in the youngest age groups. Thirdly, with their electoral lists registration, obviously some nutjobs and other colourful candidates from the lists "came to the surface" and got some attention in social media, which also could deter some people, especially those who claimed to support Konfederacja due to the "economic program", from supporting - or at least admitting that they support Konfederacja.

[Storr]

I have no idea if this outfit is reputable or not. But I'm sharing this poll because, since they had a very large sample (10,000), they were able to make an interactive electoral district map:

Law and Justice: 33.45% 175 seats
Civic Coalition:    30.85% 154 seats
New Left:           12.88%  53 seats
Third Way:         11.03%  45 seats
Confederation:    8.50%   32 seats

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I have no idea if this outfit is reputable or not. But I'm sharing this poll because, since they had a very large sample (10,000), they were able to make an interactive electoral district map:

Law and Justice: 33.45% 175 seats
Civic Coalition:    30.85% 154 seats
New Left:           12.88%  53 seats
Third Way:         11.03%  45 seats
Confederation:    8.50%   32 seats

Their methodology is polling people in the street (with quotas for gender, urban and rural), which sounds like it should be voodoo, but in the past it's done no worse than 'normal' polling. Definitely something to watch at least, tho I think they expressed some uncertainty about their own results because apparently an unusual amount of older people, especially in Warsaw and Gdansk, wouldn't speak to them.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I do wonder what caused Kon's decline in the polls. They were at 15% this summer. Do the Polish posters know more about this?

Mentzen had a massive PR blitz over the summer which attracted a lot of interest, but as is often the case with these things, they overdid it (and polls are often wonky over the summer anyway, because who on earth is talking to pollsters while on holiday). He also turned out to be shockingly unprepared in actual interviews and debates - the lowest point was when Ryszard Petru, of all people, gatecrashed one of his rallies, heckled him with basic questions about his manifesto, and left him stumbling. Konfa have now instead fallen back on their Old Reliable of Bosak, who despite having Patrick Bateman vibes at least does actual prep before going on TV.

Adding to that there were also voices of some data analysts and journalists that they overinvested into TikTok media content which apparently is now not really that friendly for Mentzen content. Other to that - due to the polls and voting intention more detailed reserach Konfederacja electorate was from all the party electorates the most inclined to change their party choice, probably due to the popularity in the youngest age groups. Thirdly, with their electoral lists registration, obviously some nutjobs and other colourful candidates from the lists "came to the surface" and got some attention in social media, which also could deter some people, especially those who claimed to support Konfederacja due to the "economic program", from supporting - or at least admitting that they support Konfederacja.

Bringing out Wipler couldn't have helped, especially since the guy looks like Mentzen's older brother lol

For those who don't know, Przemysław Wipler is a former PiS MP who defected to the Korwinistas about 10 years ago and was hyped up as Korwin's anointed successor for a long time. However, people are more likely to remember him for 1) getting in a drunken brawl with some policemen while sitting outside a bar covered in vomit, and 2) resigning from whatever Korwin's party was called that week after being accused of embezzling money. It turns out that after he left the party he became a lobbyist for British American Tobacco and TikTok, and now, for reasons known only to himself, he's trying so hard to make a political comeback that supposedly others in Konfederacja told him to stop going on TV so often because people were starting to think he was one of the leaders.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Also, speaking of Mentzen: even if you don't speak Polish, the aesthetics of this video (where he offers a bounty of a million zloty to anyone who can provide recordings of PM Morawiecki discussing shady real estate deals) tell you everything you need to know about Konfederacja and the sort of people who might vote for it:

https://twitter.com/SlawomirMentzen/status/1712050604858560632

[DavidB.]

Looks likely to me that the center-left opposition wins a majority. What happens then? Coalition of all three, or only parts of it (if so, which parts?) and outside support from others?

[M0096]

Leaders of KO, Left and Third Way declared joint government so every party from centre-left opposition would be part of government.
Minority governments in Poland were always results of political crises. There were no parliamentary election in modern (since 1993) Poland after which there weren't formed majority government.

[Storr]

A bunch of polls came out in the past few days. For what it's worth, 4 of 5 polls that came out today have the opposition winning a majority. While the 5th poll has PiS beating KO by 13%, down from 18% in their last poll (?!).

One that caught my attention was this:

Law and Justice: 34.9% 197 seats
Civic Coalition:   28.1.% 154 seats
Third Way:         10.3%  41 seats
New Left:            10.0% 38 seats
Confederation:    8.3%.  29 seats

PiS + Con = 226 seats KO + Third Way + Lewica = 233 seats

The opposition winning a majority despite KO losing to PiS by 6.8% would be wild. That this the highest vote percentage gap between PiS and KO with the opposition still winning a Sjem majority I've seen in a poll.

[M0096]

While the 5th poll has PiS beating KO by 13%, down from 18% in their last poll (?!).

State-own pollster CBOS has always thrown 25-30% of opposition votes to undecided.

Pollsters have usually underestimated PSL vote-share, sometimes by up to 5%. I think Third Way could end with 13-15% at the election day.

[Estrella]

Looking over Lewica's program on Wiki, there was a bunch of expected (and pretty good) progressive proposals, and then this:

abolishing the Institute of National Remembrance and the National Day of Remembrance of the "cursed soldiers"

Weird question, but how does the Polish left feel about the People's Republic? I'm asking because the above led me down a rabbit hole about how Lewica protested against removing a memorial to the Soviet army, protested against removing a Confederate statue a memorial built to commemorate the 20th anniversary of PZPR,  protested against naming a street after post-WW2 antifascist-turned-anticommunist guerillas (the "cursed soldiers") and renamed it "Victims of Cursed Soldiers Street" and, as the Wiki excerpt says, they want to abolish the IPN - which, yes, parrots PiS talking points all the time, but also it just comes off as "of course the successors to PZPR want to stop investigations into Communist crimes and their perpetrators".

[M0096]

New Left is direct successor of communist Polish United Workers' Party so it's not surprising that they refuse to paint Polish People's Republic only in black color. Unlike Czech or East German postcommunist  parties, Aliance of Democratic Left had majority of reformist wing of former communist party. In Czechia and Germany reformists left former communist party and recreated old socialdemocratic one. Almost every hard-core communist was defeated in 1989 election. That election was only partially free, because communist and their satelites had reserved almost 2/3 of seats in Sejm, but voters could choose which communist candidate they prefere. The election results caused takeover of the party by reformist wing and hard-core communist became irrelevant.

New Left has pretty obvious postcommunist heritage, but new generation is focus more on socialdemocratic views than fighting for bright history of communist era. The Left has some nostalgic, old voters, but majority of their electorate are young people, not interested of disputes from 30 years ago.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/notesfrompoland/status/1712415806514991186?s=20

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

https://twitter.com/notesfrompoland/status/1712415806514991186?s=20

Don't remind me, I'll be counting some of those votes!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I saw a Polish election poster in Derbyshire the other day. Efforts to appeal to the diaspora are real.

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

I saw a Polish election poster in Derbyshire the other day. Efforts to appeal to the diaspora are real.

Yes, I doubt any of them will get elected but there are even quite a few candidates this time round who are pitching themselves specifically as representatives of the diaspora. A Polish shop near me put out flyers for a Third Way candidate, which if nothing else is proof that Hołownia succeeded in building up a healthy activist base.

[Germany1994]

It´s election day in the home country of my parents.

When do we get first turnout numbers??

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Ca. 13:30 local time.

[Germany1994]

At 12 pm turnout was 22,59 % compared to 18,14 % at the same time in 2019.

Here you can see it:

https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/frekwencja/pl