Polish Politics and Elections

[Storr]

Polls are now closed....now we wait.

[Logical]

9 p.m. IPSOS EXIT POLL

PIS 36.8% - 200 seats
KO 31.6% - 163 seats
TD 13% - 55 seats
Lewica 8.6% - 30 seats
KON 6.2% - 12 seats
BEZ 2.4% - 0 seats

KO + TD + Lewica MAJORITY

[Estrella]

lol Konfa

[Storr]

9 p.m. IPSOS EXIT POLL

PIS 36.8% - 200 seats
KO 31.6% - 163 seats
TD 13% - 55 seats
Lewica 8.6% - 30 seats
KON 6.2% - 12 seats

KO + TD + Lewica MAJORITY

After Slovakia's exit polls being wrong, I'm being cautious. (Different countries, different quality of polling and all, I know.) But this would be a great result.

[Germany1994]

What about projected turnout??

[Logical]

What about projected turnout??

72.9% highest ever in democratic Poland

[Oryxslayer]

9 p.m. IPSOS EXIT POLL

PIS 36.8% - 200 seats
KO 31.6% - 163 seats
TD 13% - 55 seats
Lewica 8.6% - 30 seats
KON 6.2% - 12 seats
BES 2.4% - 0 seats

KO + TD + Lewica MAJORITY

Unless this is really wrong (which history says it won't hopefully)...that shouldn't be safe from fluctuations of a percent or two. Confederation falling again below the effective threshold in a bunch of constituencies screws not just them, but also PiS who now needs their votes. It also saves Lewica who could be losing a lot more if Confederation didn't plummet.

If things do change, its going to be because of how and if seats are apportioned to Lewica and Confederation in various constituencies, lets keep an eye on that during the court.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Let's hope we have a change in power.

[Lief 🗽]

Beautiful result, if the exits are true. Will PiS accept the result?

[Harlow]

Skeptical about Konfederacja being that low but there could have been a last-minute flight to PiS.

[locked_out]

Is there anywhere where live results are available?

[Harlow]

Beautiful result, if the exits are true. Will PiS accept the result?

Based on this statement from Kaczynski, it appears so.

https://twitter.com/JakubKrupa/status/1713633852948631781?s=20

[Keep Calm and ...]

Another exit poll:

https://twitter.com/OGB_Pro/status/1713632617768059263
https://twitter.com/OGB_Pro/status/1713633793829998877

[Germany1994]

Did they show a map which party won which Voivodeships??

[DavidB.]

So last minute Kon -> PiS and PiS -> TD voter movement? Or perhaps Kon -> TD directly? Or perhaps just related to turnout vs. abstention numbers across various bases. In any case, I think Tusk is right in that this election can be called for the left.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

KKKonfederacja getting less than 2019 (IIRC they got like 7%) after all this fanfare would be a hilarious result.

[President Johnson]

What would be the most likely coalition with this exit poll? PiS might lose power even in when they come in first, though I'm not sure whether Tusk can actually put a majority together.

But it seems like polls were relatively accurate. Polling still works in Europe, unlike in the US.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Is there anywhere where live results are available?

National Electoral Commission:
https://wybory.gov.pl/sejmsenat2023/en/

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

What would be the most likely coalition with this exit poll? PiS might lose power even in when they come in first, though I'm not sure whether Tusk can actually put a majority together.

But it seems like polls were relatively accurate. Polling still works in Europe, unlike in the US.

KO-TD-Lewica already said they'd work together. The exit polls show a 99% chance of them getting a combined majority.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting exit poll, but remember: the only country where you can be absolutely sure that the exit poll = the result is France.

[Double Carpet]

Interesting exit poll, but remember: the only country where you can be absolutely sure that the exit poll = the result is France.

That's because it isn't an exit poll, but a partial vote count.

[Oryxslayer]

Did either of the exits bother on the four referendums? Though i can probably guess the results in at least 2.

[Logical]

Did either of the exits bother on the 4 four referendum? Though i can probably guess the results in at least 2.

They only say that turnout for the referendum is 40% (you're allowed to reject the referendum ballots), which means that it is non binding.

[Germany1994]

Do we already have some Exit poll numbers split by age, education, gender and so on??

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Interesting exit poll, but remember: the only country where you can be absolutely sure that the exit poll = the result is France.

And Netherlands and UK.