Polish Politics and Elections

[DavidB.]

Why did they do it? And what do you think is disgusting about it?

[DavidB.]

So these are both local and voivodship elections. Which ones are the most important?

[DavidB.]

What different turnout patterns are these? Lower turnout among PiS supporters than among .N/PO supporters, PiS supporters voting for PSL/locals in local/voivodship elections, both...?

[DavidB.]

Pollster Marcin Palade (who seemed to have accurate leaks in 2015) just tweeted PiS 35 PO+.N 23 PSL 16 Independent Self-government lists 7, Kukiz 6, SLD 5.

I assume this would be a very good result for PiS? What caused them to win by so much in 2015, and how have they managed to remain relatively popular ever since? To me as an outsider it's almost as if Poland has turned into another country compared to the times of PO rule, but I'm obviously aware that the information I receive is biased and limited.

[DavidB.]

Thanks, very interesting!

[DavidB.]

Are there any clickable results maps for the EU election?

[DavidB.]

What are the chances of some sort of KO/PL2050 coalition ousting PiS in the elections this year? What would the government look like, in that case?

[DavidB.]

What are the chances of some sort of KO/PL2050 coalition ousting PiS in the elections this year? What would the government look like, in that case?

Isn't the most likely outcome that the PiS govt just gets reelected again? Could be some Hungary 2022 redux?

Would like to hear from a Polish native, but my impression is certainly that PiS' hold on the government is much weaker and that PiS is much more likely to lose its majority. The electoral system doesn't seem to favor PiS as much as it does Fidesz, for one. In general, PiS seems to have to deal with a lot more factions internally, and its majority is a lot more slim to begin with.

[DavidB.]

This thread has been kind of dead but there will be an election this fall, which will be very consequential for Poland's future. It looks like Konfederacja is surging and they will be the kingmakers after the election. My question is: will they actually be willing to make anyone the king? Because neither a PO-Kon nor a PiS-Kon alliance seems particularly likely to me. What happens if they don't make any agreement?

[DavidB.]

I am highly interested in this election, but don't have much to add in terms of info and therefore don't tend to post here. But please do not take this silence as a lack of interest. I suspect there are many more posters in the same situation.

[DavidB.]

Assuming PiS + Confederation gets a majority how likely is it that these two parties form a post-election coalition?

Parts of Konfederacja are incredibly hostile to the idea. The parties are very far apart on economic issues (Kon almost completely libertarian, PiS very interventionist and redistributionist), which matters very much to parts of the Kon base, but also culturally (which is partly generational: PiS has a rather old voter base, Kon is more popular with young people).

When it seemed that PiS itself would almost reach a majority but would just need a few Kon seats, perhaps it could have been possible to strike some deal with parts of Kon while leaving the more hostile parts out. But if all of Kon is needed, things might actually get tough.

On the other hand, there will be more pressure on Kon to give in as the alternative would be a repeat election - in which they could be punished - or ceding the keys to the left, which they also don't want.

I do wonder what caused Kon's decline in the polls. They were at 15% this summer. Do the Polish posters know more about this?

[DavidB.]

Looks likely to me that the center-left opposition wins a majority. What happens then? Coalition of all three, or only parts of it (if so, which parts?) and outside support from others?

[DavidB.]

So last minute Kon -> PiS and PiS -> TD voter movement? Or perhaps Kon -> TD directly? Or perhaps just related to turnout vs. abstention numbers across various bases. In any case, I think Tusk is right in that this election can be called for the left.

[DavidB.]

Looks different than the exit. Is this because rural/Eastern areas have already been counted more than Western/urban areas?

[DavidB.]

Anything on immigration in the new coalition agreement?

[DavidB.]

I am interested in hearing more about the internal repercussions (or lack thereof) Grzegorz Braun received from within Konfederacja for his pathetic little stunt. Did others within Konfederacja - or different parts of the party than his - distance themselves from him? Who supported him and who doesn't?