OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Adam Griffin]

Geez: what has happened to/in Muskingum County?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Lol, my dad still thinks O'Connor still has a chance and I told him that Balderson is winning the end.

Did you place any online bets with your old Man just like some of us might place on the Horse Tracks of  Scioto Downs in South Franklin?      

Personally if I were still a betting Man I would definitely bet that Balderson will win at the end as an "Odds Bet", but still I can see his perspective as well since if there is a 33% chance O'Connor might Win for example then in the event you lose he gets an extra gain....

Regardless, I'll try to pull a few numbers together tonight based upon the 99% of the Confirmed (Non-Provisional Vote)....

Nah, we did not bet on it. I mean at the end of the day I really think only 5-6k of those ballots will even be included in the final total anyways, so I won't peg a number so I don't get moderated for trolling or whatnot, but I would say O'Connor's odds at this point are rather paltry. He just got out of surgery and was really tired and on all sorts of medicine when he made that prediction so he may not have been thinking like his normal self, but he is overly optimistic for dems too. That sounds good, it'd be interesting to see the results which are similar by percent as many previous races, but the geography of the votes of then vs now probably looks entirely different.

[SCNCmod]

Based on tonight's results ... who is the favorite in November (taking into account how turnout may be different in November)?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Based on tonight's results ... who is the favorite in November (taking into account how turnout may be different in November)?

Troy Not So Bald erson.

[NOVA Green]

Delaware County- OHIO- 2004 GE PRES to 2018 CD-12 SE:



Ok--- now I get the 47/48% number that some were talking about O'Connor margins for a Win in Delaware County, although many of them were likely shooting darts at the same dartboard that I do occasionally on 'Pub Night....

This was an historical result for a "Statewide" or "Nationalized Democrat" within Delaware County, without even going into Statewide Elections.

Still, without actually having yet a chance to look at the precinct numbers in Delaware, it's pretty clear that O'Connor fell slightly short on the math somewhere....

Key thing to note is that although the overall 'Pub vote share went down, it's not really clear to what extent you saw # NeverTrumper 'Pubs vs Indies, Vs different turnout modelling etc within this election....

Overall these numbers are actually pretty fantastic for a Dem in Delaware County, but we didn't see a large enough crack in the Trumpista Wall in this particular election, despite what I would argue should be giant warning signs for the Ancestral 'Pubs of Metro Columbus (Similar to what we saw in PA CD-18)....

Thoughts from Delaware County?

[Bumaye]

Well at least my DOC +0.3 prediction was way closer than Bagel spamming 20 times that Balderson would win by 6 so I got that going for me which is nice.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I absolutely nailed the voting margin, predicting a one point win - but underestimated the vote the major parties would get.

[Jersey Jimmy]

.......does twitter understand this seat is literally up for grabs again in a few months? Only a miserable person chooses to melt over such an inconsequential election.

This, to be honest. It's why I don't usually get super excited over special elections unless the seat isn't up for grabs again for a while after.

[Sir Mohamed]

Will O'Connor run again in November? I think he can win then due to slightly higher turnout.

[Tender Branson]

We won't know who "won" this race for another 2 weeks, because the 8.500 remaining provisional and mail ballots are only counted 10 days after the vote ...

[Sir Mohamed]

We won't know who "won" this race for another 2 weeks, because the 8.500 remaining provisional and mail ballots are only counted 10 days after the vote ...

King TRUMP has congratulated the winner Balderson, who was down 64-31 before his majesty came to OH. He has spoken, it is over.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Will O'Connor run again in November? I think he can win then due to slightly higher turnout.

Yes. And higher turnout will benefit GOP.... he also won’t have the same amount of resources with 434 other races going on.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

We won't know who "won" this race for another 2 weeks, because the 8.500 remaining provisional and mail ballots are only counted 10 days after the vote ...

King TRUMP has congratulated the winner Balderson, who was down 64-31 before his majesty came to OH. He has spoken, it is over.

How dare you commit Lèse-majesté!

[Sir Mohamed]

Will O'Connor run again in November? I think he can win then due to slightly higher turnout.

Yes. And higher turnout will benefit GOP.... he also won’t have the same amount of resources with 434 other races going on.

Higher turnout usually works in the Dems favor?

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Both Manchin and Ojeda would have beaten Balderson.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

.......does twitter understand this seat is literally up for grabs again in a few months? Only a miserable person chooses to melt over such an inconsequential election.

This, to be honest. It's why I don't usually get super excited over special elections unless the seat isn't up for grabs again for a while after.

Even a little bit of incumbency tends to help win reelection, especially since the district already tilts Republican.  If there is rematch, I'd expect Balsderson to do a little better than he did in the special (no matter how it turns out) unless we get either a Trump implosion or an economic implosion between now and the general. Neither is likely to happen that soon.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

We won't know who "won" this race for another 2 weeks, because the 8.500 remaining provisional and mail ballots are only counted 10 days after the vote ...

King TRUMP has congratulated the winner Balderson, who was down 64-31 before his majesty came to OH. He has spoken, it is over.

Is the gaslighting getting to me? I seem to recall that Balderson was up just a little in the polling overall...

[Person Man]

We won't know who "won" this race for another 2 weeks, because the 8.500 remaining provisional and mail ballots are only counted 10 days after the vote ...

King TRUMP has congratulated the winner Balderson, who was down 64-31 before his majesty came to OH. He has spoken, it is over.

Is the gaslighting getting to me? I seem to recall that Balderson was up just a little in the polling overall...

he was up by 10 in June. By August,  it was a 1 point race. if you believe Sean Trende.

[Antonio the Sixth]

According to the Ohio SoS, there are 5000K absentees and 3500K provisionals. Absentees are probably going to break about even, so even if you want to be optimistic O'Connor could net 500 votes out of them at the very best. That means O'Connor would need to win 68% of provisional ballots to make up his deficit - but that's assuming all of them are counted, which is never the case with provisionals. If only half are counted, he would need to win 86% of those.

In other words: it's over. Still an indicator that the partisan climate favors Democrats, of course, but we knew it already and it wasn't the point of this election. The point was to reduce the number of seats needed to win from 23 to 22, and we failed at that. Not a huge blow, but still a setback.

[BudgieForce]

According to the Ohio SoS, there are 5000K absentees and 3500K provisionals. Absentees are probably going to break about even, so even if you want to be optimistic O'Connor could net 500 votes out of them at the very best. That means O'Connor would need to win 68% of provisional ballots to make up his deficit - but that's assuming all of them are counted, which is never the case with provisionals. If only half are counted, he would need to win 86% of those.

In other words: it's over. Still an indicator that the partisan climate favors Democrats, of course, but we knew it already and it wasn't the point of this election. The point was to reduce the number of seats needed to win from 23 to 22, and we failed at that. Not a huge blow, but still a setback.

Aren't you just a ray of sunshine.

[GeorgiaModerate]

According to the Ohio SoS, there are 5000K absentees and 3500K provisionals. Absentees are probably going to break about even, so even if you want to be optimistic O'Connor could net 500 votes out of them at the very best. That means O'Connor would need to win 68% of provisional ballots to make up his deficit - but that's assuming all of them are counted, which is never the case with provisionals. If only half are counted, he would need to win 86% of those.

In other words: it's over. Still an indicator that the partisan climate favors Democrats, of course, but we knew it already and it wasn't the point of this election. The point was to reduce the number of seats needed to win from 23 to 22, and we failed at that. Not a huge blow, but still a setback.

Aren't you just a ray of sunshine.

He's completely correct.

[Gass3268]

According to the Ohio SoS, there are 5000K absentees and 3500K provisionals. Absentees are probably going to break about even, so even if you want to be optimistic O'Connor could net 500 votes out of them at the very best. That means O'Connor would need to win 68% of provisional ballots to make up his deficit - but that's assuming all of them are counted, which is never the case with provisionals. If only half are counted, he would need to win 86% of those.

In other words: it's over. Still an indicator that the partisan climate favors Democrats, of course, but we knew it already and it wasn't the point of this election. The point was to reduce the number of seats needed to win from 23 to 22, and we failed at that. Not a huge blow, but still a setback.

Aren't you just a ray of sunshine.

He's completely correct.

There might be enough provisional/remaining absentee votes to get in into the recount margin, but really that's all we are waiting for.

[BudgieForce]

According to the Ohio SoS, there are 5000K absentees and 3500K provisionals. Absentees are probably going to break about even, so even if you want to be optimistic O'Connor could net 500 votes out of them at the very best. That means O'Connor would need to win 68% of provisional ballots to make up his deficit - but that's assuming all of them are counted, which is never the case with provisionals. If only half are counted, he would need to win 86% of those.

In other words: it's over. Still an indicator that the partisan climate favors Democrats, of course, but we knew it already and it wasn't the point of this election. The point was to reduce the number of seats needed to win from 23 to 22, and we failed at that. Not a huge blow, but still a setback.

Aren't you just a ray of sunshine.

He's completely correct.

Never said he wasn't. I was just being snarky.

[BudgieForce]

BTW, I read in The Weekly Standard that absentee ballots get counted on the 18th. Ain't nobody got time for that Ohio.

[BuckeyeNut]

Geez: what has happened to/in Muskingum County?

Balderson’s from there. Next.

Will O'Connor run again in November? I think he can win then due to slightly higher turnout.

Yes. O’Connor won the May primary for the special and the general. Higher turnout means he is doomed. UNLESS Balderson isn’t the GOP nominee for the general election, which is still possible, if not probable.