OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[Adam Griffin]

Just looking at the final EV numbers and considering past specials...if I had to guess, I'd say it's 59-41 O'Connor in the two-way model. It could be higher if he's winning a near-unanimous number of Other voters or pulling something like 1 in 5 Republicans or more, though.

[Adam Griffin]

Just looking at the final EV numbers and considering past specials...if I had to guess, I'd say it's 59-41 O'Connor in the two-way model. It could be higher if he's winning a near-unanimous number of Other voters or pulling something like 1 in 5 Republicans or more, though.

Surely you mean 51-49. There's no way in Hell Balderson wins with an 18% lead.

I meant that the early vote breakdown is something like 59% O'Connor, 41% Balderson (two-way).

[Adam Griffin]

Here's Griff's patented Election Day Hysteria Generator!

Have fun

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[Adam Griffin]

Franklin's at 37% of all votes cast and counted thus far: I wonder what are the chances that said figure holds (or expands)...

[Adam Griffin]

Licking just had a huge vote dump.

And O'Connor's still at -18...

[Adam Griffin]

Remember when people were saying yesterday that turnout was going to be 110-140k? LOL

[Adam Griffin]

G Elliot Morris had Muskingum benchmark as R+4 but it's R+34 right now...are his numbers screwed up or what? Can somebody post an alternative set of benchmarks for verification?

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

The overall trend of the night has been that rural areas have been reporting first...perhaps there's more Democratic vote outstanding in Delaware than in the county as a whole, but I'm not very optimistic.

[Adam Griffin]

Balderson pulls ahead:

[Adam Griffin]

O'Connor probably needs 55% of what's left to win.

[Adam Griffin]

Also worth noting that we're coming very close to the 2014 midterm turnout in this special election - will probably fall 10-15k votes short of it (was 216k in 2014).

[Adam Griffin]

O'CONNOR BACK IN THE LEAD (but Franklin finished dumping)

Troy Balderson (R)   90,852      49.65%
Joe Manchik (G)   1,078      0.59%
Danny O'Connor (D)   91,053      49.76%
Total Votes Cast   182,983      

[Adam Griffin]

Troy Balderson (R)   95,677      49.91%
Joe Manchik (G)   1,102      0.57%
Danny O'Connor (D)   94,936      49.52%
Total Votes Cast   191,715      

29 precincts left to report

[Adam Griffin]

O'Connor needs 60% of outstanding now.

[Adam Griffin]

I'm skeptical about provisionals making a big difference: isn't this basically the heavily-white and wealthy portions of Franklin County? Provisionals disproportionately skew poor and minority.

[Adam Griffin]

It's over:

Troy Balderson (R)   100,044      50.14%
Joe Manchik (G)   1,120      0.56%
Danny O'Connor (D)   98,359      49.30%

7 precincts left; Balderson's 700 vote margin is now 1700

[Adam Griffin]

A 10-point swing from the presidential election isn't good by any means, but you have to remember that we did not have the advantage of incumbency here.  Plus, these special elections are lower-turnout and give the Democratic Party more opportunity to invest.  A 4 or 5 point national PV loss, on the other hand, would keep a lot of districts red and may save the House.

This special election that local operatives on both sides of the aisle were saying nobody in the district knew about has >90% of the 2014 midterm turnout.

[Adam Griffin]

Guys, those of us with enough common sense to put the dips[inks]ts on full ignore don't have to see any of their commentary - until you mindlessly quote it and break the system. Stop it.

[Adam Griffin]

Delaware has fully reported (at least accordiing to their website):

R 31742   53.96   
G 226   0.38
D 26854   45.65

That gives Balderson an additional 1514 and O'Connor 1436.

[Adam Griffin]

FINAL RESULTS: (based on Delaware County's website):

Balderson 101566 50.16%
O'Connor 99800   49.29%
Manchik 1127 0.55%   

[Adam Griffin]

Balderson's final margin narrows by 12 in the SoS count (NYT has the same count as I, but OH SOS has 20 extra votes for O'Connor & 8 for Balderson):

[Adam Griffin]

The Green votes could have made the difference between a recount and no recount, and generally, recounts discover that Democratic votes are under-reported; that combined with provisionals could have made a difference, but we'll never know.

[Adam Griffin]

This is enough to maybe go to the recount zone:

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1027025172656738307

Assuming this is correct, O'Connor will need about 71% of all these provisionals in order to win (roughly 6,000 of the 8,400) and considering a solid # will likely be thrown out, probably closer to if not over 100%.

[Adam Griffin]

Guys, we needa learn how to take an L.

We are, this is visibly less painful for Atlas Democrats compared to the Ossoff loss a little over a year ago. It’s a lot easier to take it on the chin when we have so many indicators pointing to a favorable midterm environment and Republicans barely clinching a race that shouldn’t have been competitive. I think you’re overreacting a bit.

Bagel seems like he drinks too much caffeine and/or takes too much adderall around election time lol

I don't really see many people unable to accept a loss. I see a lot of people correctly stating or in some way acknowledging that losing by <1 point in a R+7 / T+11 and historically R district is not the same as a win but still informative that Ds are finally going to get a very good midterm and regain some power in DC. I also see the usual posters trying to move the goal posts and act as if this race is supposed to be competitive in the first place.

I've never had dexies or pep pills, and I have not intentionally drank caffeine for over 3 weeks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0EZb4u5DXko