OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7

[BuckeyeNut]

Oh. My. God.

There's a nobody running on the Dems side. And I doubt this seat is flippable even in a wave, but a real candidate should get in.

Coleman and Brunner would be terrible candidates here, and the district actually does include some of the northern bits of Columbus proper.

[BuckeyeNut]

I recognize there were three candidates who filed to run against Tiberi in 2018, I've met two of them, but they're all Some Dudes, including Doug Wilson. The Democrat's bench here is absolute crap, and we aren't going to take this. If Chabot resigned, then we'd be cooking with gas. Though I suppose the Democratic bench has been just as crap, if not worse, in the other special election districts.

[BuckeyeNut]

RJ's got a good point. Tiberi missed his chance to take the Chairmam of Ways and Means when Ryan become speaker, and the Trump wave marked the end of the Kasich-wing of the Ohio GOP. Tiberi's resignation is their death rattle.

[BuckeyeNut]

Could State Rep David Leland run? Pretty sure his district narrowly overlaps with OH-12.

There's some narrow overlap, though Leland almost certainly doesn't live in the district. Which, as we all know, isn't a legal problem, but is one of image. The bigger issue is he seems to be angling to attach himself to Betty Sutton's gubernatorial campaign as her Lieutenant Governor. Lord knows he could raise enough money to compete in the 12th, though.

[BuckeyeNut]

Does Mingo live in that part of the county? It'd be a good thing for him to look at, since he's obviously trying to move up. Jay Goyal could be a good candidate for the Dems. Mansfield-based, Time Magazine 40 under 40, still under 40. Doubt he runs, though, seeing he never finished for four terms in the state house.

[BuckeyeNut]

This was a Trump +11 district and a Portman +28 district. Don’t get your hopes up.

I said above this isn't going to be won, but Strickland was a trash candidate in the end, this district was one of few in Ohio that actually trended left, and is far more D-friendly than many of the others where we've seen special elections.

[BuckeyeNut]

Any chance Danny O'Connor lives in this district and not Beatty's/Stiver's?

Edit: Yeah, this district is one a few reasons Dems need to start investing in Delaware County.

Edit 2: NPR saying Mingo, Senators Bacon and Jordan all looking at this district.

[BuckeyeNut]

Jordan isn't completely toxic yet, somehow, he could still make it through the primary.

[BuckeyeNut]

Delaware County Prosecutor Carol O'Brien is running. Delaware county is ~1/3 of the votes in the district, and it would likely take a fracturing among several candidates for a Franklin/Licking/Muskingum/Richland County candidate to make it through. If O'Brien is elected, she will be the first woman Republican to represent Ohio in Congress since Schmidt retired in '12.

[BuckeyeNut]

He’s a FF who I admire. Hopefully he runs for Senate in 2022 if Portman retires, or Governor then if a Democrat’s the incumbent.

Tiberi's career in electoral politics is dead.

[BuckeyeNut]

He’s a FF who I admire. Hopefully he runs for Senate in 2022 if Portman retires, or Governor then if a Democrat’s the incumbent.

Tiberi's career in electoral politics is dead.

could one of Browns wives run?

Uh. No. Neither his current wife, nor his ex would want to. It'd also be a very bad look and wouldn't go over well.

[BuckeyeNut]

He’s a FF who I admire. Hopefully he runs for Senate in 2022 if Portman retires, or Governor then if a Democrat’s the incumbent.

Tiberi's career in electoral politics is dead.

could one of Browns wives run?

Uh. No. Neither his current wife, nor his ex would want to. It'd also be a very bad look and wouldn't go over well.

My guess is that the Democrats nominate Ed Albertson again and don't make much of a play here.

That would be disappointing. But unsurprising. Saves some money for Harbaugh and Rader. Though it sure looks like we've seceded the 16th, so maybe that's unwarranted optimism re: the allocation of resources.

[BuckeyeNut]

Former Franklin Count Sheriff Zack Scott to run. Both a disgusting human and Democrats best recruit.

[BuckeyeNut]

Between the hotbed of Indivisible activism and the real chance, the OH GOP puts up another would-be sex offender (Clarence Mingo) or a domestic abuser (Kris Jodan), I'm starting to feel like there might be a real shot at this seat. Though that might just be Jones' victory going to my head. Although that said, I'm expecting Democrats to raise decent money here.

[BuckeyeNut]

I don't think Scott wins the primary. I think it's going to be Russell. The majority of the Democratic primary is going to occur in Franklin County, and Scott's got a lot of ill will.

[BuckeyeNut]

I don't think Scott wins the primary. I think it's going to be Russell. The majority of the Democratic primary is going to occur in Franklin County, and Scott's got a lot of ill will.

Yeah, we kinda hate Zach Scott here   Russell is a some dude though and the other stuff I said stands.  If this flips than forget 2014, we’re looking at possibly the biggest wave in American history.

Russell is claiming the ability to raise at least $5 mil., so we'll see.

[BuckeyeNut]

Reading Zach Scott's quick bio, I like him for two reasons:

1-He has the same first name as me.
2-He actually attends a Vineyard church, the same affiliation as the church I was baptized in.

So I like him already! Knowing nothing else.

Zach Scott is a piece of sh!t hated by damn near every Democrat because he received Koch money to contest the Columbus Mayoral election as a DINO in 2015.

[BuckeyeNut]

Reading Zach Scott's quick bio, I like him for two reasons:

1-He has the same first name as me.
2-He actually attends a Vineyard church, the same affiliation as the church I was baptized in.

So I like him already! Knowing nothing else.

Zach Scott is a piece of sh!t hated by damn near every Democrat because he received Koch money to contest the Columbus Mayoral election as a DINO in 2015.

So what's really bad about him? Like what awful positions does he hold, etc.

The big thing with Scott is that he's scummy and corrupt, as is anyone financially tied to Melissa Barnhart. He's also adamantly pro-cop -- and anti-CJR -- in a way you usually only see in Republicans these days. But what else should you expect from a Sheriff with three decades in law enforcement?

[BuckeyeNut]

I mean, Trump isn't partucularly unpopular in Ohio so I doubt making gains in Ohio will be possible at all

OH-12 was the only district in the state to trend against Trump, and has a very active Indivisible chapter. It's unlikely to happen, but it's within the realm of possibility.

[BuckeyeNut]

Not everything is winnable, but with the right turnout, this seat is, even if it is VERY uphill. There's still the chance the GOP nominates Kris Jordan or Clarence Mingo.

[BuckeyeNut]

Holy sh!t Jay Goyal -- AKA the one guy who probably could actually win this for Democrats -- is actually considering.

EDIT: Also, very oddly, Franklin County Sheriff, Dallas Baldwin, endorsed his predecessor, Zack Scott for the seat. This is odd, as Baldwin primaried Scott out along internal party division lines.

[BuckeyeNut]

The one issue is that Scott could emerge as the nominee with this big of a field. The no-name candidates need to drop out.

Though if Goyal doesn't drop, I'll be rooting for John Russell.

[BuckeyeNut]

Holy sh!t Jay Goyal -- AKA the one guy who probably could actually win this for Democrats -- is actually considering.

EDIT: Also, very oddly, Franklin County Sheriff, Dallas Baldwin, endorsed his predecessor, Zack Scott for the seat. This is odd, as Baldwin primaried Scott out along internal party division lines.

WOW!  If he jumps in and a non-Kevin Bacon Republican gets nominated, this is definitely a long-shot pickup possibility given the current political climate.

There's not much of SD-03 in OH-12. Yeah, Bacon's gonna raise more money, but Carol O'Brien getting the name would not surprise me.

[BuckeyeNut]

Do we think Kasich schedules a legitimate special, or will the seat stay vacant until November?

Kasich probably wants to maximize the number of Republicans in the House, so we will probably get a quick special.

He'll probably do what he did when their was a special for Boehner's old seat. Put the special election on the same day of the regular election's primary.

[BuckeyeNut]

Joyce Beatty now urging Jay Goyal to run.