OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7 (user search)
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  OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: OH-12 Special Election: Balderson vs. O’Connor on August 7  (Read 108207 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: June 17, 2018, 05:08:11 PM »
Quote from: Redneck Conservative on June 17, 2018, 04:35:22 PM
The sample is 54% republican / 26% dem / 20% independents

Is that close to  the registration in this district?

The statewide registration breakdown (per Ohio Voter Project) is 26% R, 18% D, 56% non-affiliated (which just means they haven't cast a primary ballot for either party).  I don't see a breakdown by CD.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1 on: June 17, 2018, 05:28:29 PM »
Quote from: OneJ_ on June 17, 2018, 05:21:42 PM
FWIW, JMC has a C+ by FiveThirtyEight. Definitely still a race you should not take your eyes off of.

FWIW, in the AL-SEN special election they went from Moore+8 to Jones+4 to Moore+5.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2 on: July 09, 2018, 09:19:08 AM »
Quote from: 136or142 on July 09, 2018, 08:32:57 AM
Quote from: Centrist98 on July 09, 2018, 07:32:20 AM
Quote from: 136or142 on July 08, 2018, 10:42:39 PM

If Balderson is campaigning heavily in a Philadelphia suburban area in Pennsylvania, I feel especially confident about O'Connor's chances!

(Nar Har Har)

There is a Delaware County, OH. A White Affluent Suburban county just north of Columbus.

When I first read 'Delaware County' regarding this race I was initially very confused.  Not much creativity in American place names, unfortunately.


Useless trivia dept: there are actually six Delaware Counties in the following states: IN, IA, NY, OH, OK, and PA.

(Washington County says "hold my beer".  There are 31 of them!)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: July 31, 2018, 03:58:19 PM »
Quote from: Ebsy on July 31, 2018, 03:50:54 PM
This is NOT today's update, and I will explain my reasoning below:



Up to this point, most of each day's early voting was captured in the daily reports I had been downloading and putting together, but now that early voting hours have extended, much more of each day's votes are occurring after the daily updates. Yesterday's vote totals went from 1117 to 2372 with all of the in person absentees, and it changed the composition of yesterday's ballots as well, with the massive number of ballots in Franklin pushing the Democrats from a 100 vote deficit to a 20 vote lead. Most of the change in the overall margin was from a higher share of Other voters in these later in person absentees. For these reasons, each daily report is going to be time-lagged by a day in order to fully capture all of the votes being cast. The July 31 update will be posted tomorrow, August 1. My apologies for any confusion.

Suggested addition to the chart, if it's not too much trouble: a couple of columns showing each county's returned ballots and its population as a percentage of the 7-county total.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4 on: August 01, 2018, 02:54:47 PM »
Quote from: THE BuckeyeNut on August 01, 2018, 02:52:57 PM
Some group affiliated with the Balderson campaign is texting Democrats and telling them that theor polling location has changed.

Is this even legal?  (It's clearly unethical.)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: August 05, 2018, 05:05:31 PM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2018, 07:30:21 AM »
Quote from: JG on August 06, 2018, 07:18:53 AM
Whether O'Connor wins or not, the fact it's a photo-finish in a district that should be an easy win for the republicans spells big trouble for them.

Morris's take:
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2018, 11:33:58 AM »


FWIW, Trende actually lives in OH-12.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2018, 06:04:45 PM »
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: August 07, 2018, 05:53:54 AM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on August 07, 2018, 02:13:37 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on August 07, 2018, 02:09:01 AM
Go Danny !

Can't wait for the results. When are polls closing (Central European Time) ?

2.30am ?

I think 12:30 AM CET but don't count on it.

7:30 PM EDT, which is 1:30 AM CEST.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: August 07, 2018, 09:26:11 AM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on August 07, 2018, 09:25:07 AM
Quote from: RubioRepublican on August 07, 2018, 09:19:37 AM
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on August 07, 2018, 08:45:20 AM
Ugh, so yesterday I wanted to phone bank at 2am but it was closed, and today when it is open I go to put in my info and sign up, but Danny's mobile site sucks! It would not even work so I just gave up for now. Literally Danny fix your mobile site!

Just when I think you couldn’t possibly be stupider

Believe it or not, there are quiet a few people up at those hours, especially younger dems so I think the phone bank should be open 24 hours a day.

If I got a call at 2am from any candidate, it would sure incline me to vote against them.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #11 on: August 07, 2018, 11:25:34 AM »

The confusing thing is that 538 has a contributor named Micah Cohen. Smiley  Anyway, I heard that the reason for no needle is that (some of?) the counties wouldn't be providing precinct-level results tonight.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #12 on: August 07, 2018, 01:09:34 PM »
Quote from: Prolocutor Bagel23 on August 07, 2018, 12:55:50 PM
Quote from: Brittain33 on August 07, 2018, 12:50:36 PM
Bagel, please knock off the trolling. Thank you. —Mod.

I'll leave the commentary out of it (yall already know what I think) but I believe it is important and good contribution for people to see these benchmarks:



If O'Connor hit exactly these benchmarks and the percentage of votes by county was the same as in Ebsy's final EV update, O'Connor would get 51.05%.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #13 on: August 07, 2018, 02:21:19 PM »
« Edited: August 07, 2018, 02:39:04 PM by Brittain33 »

Cart.  Horse.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #14 on: August 07, 2018, 02:29:47 PM »
« Edited: August 07, 2018, 02:40:31 PM by Brittain33 »

It's at best premature to bring it up today, and given your history in this thread it sure comes across as trolling.  If Balderson wins, bring it up tomorrow.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #15 on: August 07, 2018, 03:35:12 PM »
Quote from: marty on August 07, 2018, 03:31:41 PM
I have a quick question I’ll just ask in this thread

Why is this site on the central time zone?

It's the server time.  If you want to adjust for your local time zone, modify your profile (it's Time Offset under Look and Layout Preferences.)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #16 on: August 07, 2018, 06:11:14 PM »
Quote from: marty on August 07, 2018, 06:10:09 PM
How many Americans would you say are following the race tonight? O/u 20-30 mill?

Way, way under.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #17 on: August 07, 2018, 06:22:25 PM »
Quote from: mds32 on August 07, 2018, 06:21:43 PM
Quote from: marty on August 07, 2018, 06:10:09 PM
How many Americans would you say are following the race tonight? O/u 20-30 mill?
5 people

And Bagel is 2 of them.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #18 on: August 07, 2018, 06:30:18 PM »
GEM's benchmarks:



Precious = previous, I'm sure.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #19 on: August 07, 2018, 06:46:30 PM »
Quote from: pppolitics on August 07, 2018, 06:43:21 PM
How come there isn't a needle that swings back and forth like last time?

The counties aren't providing precinct-level results, which are necessary to feed the model in real time.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #20 on: August 07, 2018, 06:52:02 PM »
Quote from: marty on August 07, 2018, 06:49:30 PM
Welp.....so much for the advice to ignore EV results

Lmao

You didn't really expect anyone here to do that, did you? Wink
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #21 on: August 07, 2018, 06:55:44 PM »
Speaking of Hillary...
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #22 on: August 07, 2018, 06:59:33 PM »

We think it's early.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #23 on: August 07, 2018, 07:05:57 PM »
Quote from: Joe Republic on August 07, 2018, 07:05:19 PM
Republicans talk a lot about voter fraud, but seem to have no problem with voters from Delaware coming to vote in a special election in Ohio.

Comment of the night so far. Smiley
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #24 on: August 07, 2018, 07:06:57 PM »
Quote from: new_patomic on August 07, 2018, 07:05:37 PM
We've got a single precinct reporting out of Morrow.

And seems it went Balderson 40 - 22.

Doom.

Absolute doom.

Wasserman's benchmark for O'Connor in Morrow is 31%, so he's ahead of that. Wink
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